Skip to comments.Can Iran Successfully Deter A Military Attack?
Posted on 09/11/2008 9:24:09 PM PDT by Fennie
The public discussions of US/Israel attack scenarios and evidence from U.S. invasion of Iraq suggest that the initial stage of an attack on Iran will include hundreds and perhaps thousands of rockets and bombs which will not only target Iran's nuclear assets but also its missiles and military command. As a result Iran will only be able to launch only a portion of its rockets. For sake of argument lets assume that 50% of rockets will be successfully launched.
One must also keep in mind that both Israel and the U.S. will shot down at least 50% of Iran's rockets with their anti-missile defense system. Therefore for every 1000 Iranian missiles chances are that at most 250 of them will reach their targets.
Furthermore since Iran's military assets are limited it might decide to use its missiles slowly similar to the way Saddam was using it. For every one hundred American bombs or rockets Iraq was able to fire no more than five rockets. Therefore the U.S. and Israel might conclude that the damage from Iran's initial rocket retaliation will be limited...
(Excerpt) Read more at payvand.com ...
They can’t deter us militarily, but they can deter us economically. Imagine gas at $200/barrel. What president is going to want to risk that?
That is a nice thought but it is mostly NOT THEIR SHIP'S. Those ships are owned by other persons, residing in other countries.
Nothing like starting an international diplomatic incident with several other countries.... like maybe China, maybe France, maybe the UK.
We will not do it that way.
Still under $5/gallon
***Can Iran Successfully Deter A Military Attack?***
All depends who’s attacking.
Swiss Guards? Maybe.
Israel? Doubt it.
That assumes the current regime actually wants to avoid dying.
“Israel? Doubt it.”
Well Hezbollah pretty much achieved that in 2006. They are as I understand it an Iranian affiliate. Furthermore Iran itself achieved under The peanut farmer’s watch.
It depends on the scale of the attack doesn’t it.
I think Iran’s most likely response to any Israeli attack will be to unleash suicide bombers, blow airliners out of the sky and asassinations of political figures.
I took the article as the writer making the argument that his country’s Nuclear/Biological/Chemical program needed to focus on weapons development.
For the most part, the author made rational arguments. I think in the scenarios he mentioned he gives the Iranian military a bit more credit and tended to err on the side of Iran doing a bit more damage that I think they could actually do, but I would agree with his overall conclusion that Iran would not be able to stand up against the US should the two countries go to war and that the likelihood of Iran getting outside help would be slim.
His bias/brainwashing showed through however in that every mention of the US was tightly tied with Israel as if the “US/Israel” were a single entity joined at the hip. His reference to US presence in the ME as ‘hegemony’ was also telling of his bias. He didn’t seem to let that bias override his overall logic though.
This is why I maintain we should ignore the nuke plants (just disable the power plants that feed them) and go strait after the mullahs and the Republican Guard.
Make sure that the Iranian people know we are not targeting them or their general infrastructure.
The nuke plants represent billions of dollars of investment but they are not the problem, the government is. If we can take them out the nuke plants will not be a problem. If we fail to bring down the government we can always target the plants at our leisure.
If the insane Islamofacists in control of Iran, really had the firepower to take out Israel and our military bases in Iraq. They would have done it without talking about it!
JDAMs cost too much.
Carpet bombing with the basic Mk-82 slicks with altimeter fuzes set to go off 10 meters above the ground is more effective in open terrain.
Not so sure about that. Iran is a huge land mass, more than twice the size of Western Europe. Its command and control structures are scattered, and probably hardened. A few would survive for a while, as would a few missile sites aimed at Israel. They fire 20, 4-5 get through?
(stopping their cash flow
Couple of young Russki fellows I know might handle their oil for them. And we had better make sure the Saudis make up the difference in crude supplies (piece of cake if they are willing)
We let your ships move along and carry your oil out as soon as you sign this little piece of paper...
Technically, that's war.
I am not defending these worthy oriental gentlemen, however they do have a few cards to play. E.G. There was a Persia before there was the oil business, and the natives are not used to living very high on the hog to begin with.
There's a theological point not to be missed here, too. The Iranian Shiites would actually welcome a nuclear Armageddon. If the entire world were to blow up tomorrow, they would be pleased. You see, all the dead Shiites would go straight to Firdous, there to be served by all the infidels and bad Muslims for all eternity, or until Allah the All Wise sounds the all-clear. (Honest, I am not making that up. These are not Kansas Methodists we are dealing with.)
And then there's the most interesting question of what we do with them after we pound the bejesus of them, which as I said may not be as easy as it might seem. So what do we do? Easy. Whack Ahimanutjob and change their government with a covert coup? I don't know. Used to work. Worth a try before we roll out the cruise missiles? (Of which we'll need about 25,000)
Can Iran Successfully Deter A Military Attack?
Methinks the theory should be tested. Proper scope, sample size, confidence level, etc... May I suggest the reactor at Busher to be include in the sample population?
When is the next full moon over Tehran?
When is the next full moon over Tehran?..."
I think you mean 'New-Moon', noob ... try to get it right. Y'now, I can't be your Gunney forever, bub!
Shit-man - there's damn few of us guys left here.!
The Amazon-Brigade owns the place now.
I'm not complaining, y'know - they're beautiful women, and I love to see them, but we gotta get more testosterone in this Mid-Florida Chapter.
Hey - it's been about eight years, People!
Let's get our show on-the-road! Let's kick some ass! .................................... GONZO!!
Great photoshop pic there!!
I especially like the 2 near the top left which are headed towards each other!!
Since these are of the Iranian missile firings I get a good laugh outta it, however if this was of our USA military then I do know that we have more than enough of the technology, money and the means to do this.
Whoo Hoo ! LOL
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