Skip to comments.Probability of McCain Win (Vanity)
Posted on 09/13/2008 10:21:03 PM PDT by TomEwall
I considered the states that Rasmussen has listed as leaning or toss-ups and used the "Last" values for Intrade to determine the probability of a given state being won. Doing a weighted average, I came with McCain's expected value to be 268.74, which is just under 269, a tie.
Doing a Monte Carlo simulation I came up with the probability of a McCain win being 49.4%, a similar result to the weighted average.
“I think McCain will end up winning by a much larger margin than expected.”
Oh please, God. Because electoral vote count, so far, looks scary when the networks show it - a frightening spread between the two thus far. Guess I’m just nervous - I realize none of this is set in stone yet.
Let me rephrase. McCain had better win by a landslide or the losers will make the LA riots look like a bar fight!
I’m stealing that cartoon.
I agree with you. If the orange, green, red, or blue candidate was a strong, experienced candidate who was at least a centrist if not a conservative, he could win a general election today.
Obama has no chance. He’s a scary leftist. It’s back to the drawing board for the 60’s radicals who have cut their hair and gone into journalism and politics.
“I find that pretty disgusting since I would vote for Thomas Sowell or Walter Williams in a heartbeat.”
Eric - thanks for your post - and I’d add Michael Steele to that - he’s a straight-up, good conservative guy!!! (and a credentialed politician, who happens to be black)
I really hope and pray you’re right in your predictions.
I agree with everything you said, except I think the odds of an Obama win are much higher, certainly not 100:1. He is within a few percentage points, which means a few small unforeseen problems and things could swing back the other way. I would put it at 2 or 3 to 1. Still good odds for our country, but sad that such an anti-American could have any chance at all.
California and New England is my guess.
I know a considerable amount of people who have never voted for a Republican president who are either votig for McCain or not voting. I live in MD and would not be that surprised if McCain wins. I know that sounds unbelievable, but I am confident it will at least be close.
I’m not a Michael Steele fan. He strikes me as a big tent GOP party hack. Not a conservative.
I am on a roll though with my predictions. I predicted Sarah Palin as the VP nominee.
The bad news is that much like my golf game, I can’t hit 3 good shots in a row.
I have always said that a candidate in these times can be either black or white or purple and if he or SHE believes in God, is against the killing of the unborn, believes in marriage and shows to be a patriot can win hands down.
Of course some whites and Hispanics will not vote for a man of color but then again it is not like in Obama”s case where 95% of blacks are radically voting for him because of his skin color.
Because Obama’s campaign have so often played the race card that it has caused many citizens to reexamine just what a vote for him might connote in Americas future.
Got it, but why is it that the dem’s have such white guilt that they can’t be honest?
Palin/Steel 2008, how awesome would that be?
He’ll win the Democratic People’s Republic of NY, NJ, CT, PA, MA, CA, WA, MD. Anything else would be a bonus.
Imitation is the greatest form of flattery. I’m upset that other FReepers haven’t stolen my stuff more often.
I agree that there are certainly a percentage of yahoos who just wont vote for a black man (although for the record, I was born in Africa and Im darker than Whitney Houston). I find that pretty disgusting since I would vote for Thomas Sowell or Walter Williams in a heartbeat.
However, we disagree on the percentages.
I put it at 4% max. He says its higher, closer to 20%. There is no denying that there is a Bradley effect in the polling that even the drive bys acknowledge. Nobody is going to tell a stranger on the phone in a poll that they have reservations about voting for a _______ (fill in the blank)
In answer to the question posed in this vanity, I would say the odds of Obama winning are 100:1. This will be a landslide McCain Palin victory.
The MSM will blame it on racism. Thats nonsense.
It has everything to do with this particular candidate being unqualified and a closet Saul Alinsky style America hating Marxist.
What the racist left fails to grasp....it's not about color...it's about world view...
You know who one of my heros is?
I have been amazed in my life that when a prominent black conservative attains success and the support of his constituents..he(or she) is attacked as an Uncle tom...
As though there is a “white mans world” as oppossed to “THE world”...
Put a man like Lt. Col. Allen West on my ballot and he'll get my vote every time...
Remember the commander In Iraq that got in trouble for shooting a pistol to scare a prisoner into giving up intel that saved soldiers lives from an IED?
Yeah..the was him...
The man is the real deal and I would be HONORED to vote for him...
I voted for Ken Blackwell for Gov....
I greatly admire JC watts and Mike Steel...
In fact...I have allready suggested Palin-West 12’...
I have allways found fault with the notion that main stream people of color can easily dismiss elements undesirable of “white culture” ,but at he same time find rejection of an undesirable element of “black culture” (hip hop and gansta rap) to be racist in nature...
My teenage son tried to put me on the spot in front of a couple of his black friends..
“So dad...tell me again what is the difference between black people and N*&@#$”
“oh...about the same difference between white people and white trash”...
I heard two “sounds right” from the back seat...
Shut my kid up though...it was priceless....
Kings dream for his children is also my own....that they be judged on the content of their charactor and not the color of their skin...
“Mostly the plans to raise taxes and increase the size of Government concerns me.”
Tom, thanks - believe me, though - that’s only the TIP of the iceberg if BHO were to win.
“However, its not such a bad screen name. W is one of the Good Guys.”
An internet name is pretty meaningless, evidently I am named after a fire extinguisher.
The Bush name will hold up over the years and age like a fine wine, although it sucks a little right now.
I am not sure this is a strict Dim/GOP split. It is probably more Dims of course as a good fraction of this group maybe worries if they admit they are not voting for the black candidate the pollster may think they are racist. And of course if they a polled by what they think is a black voice, then that issue is raised even more.
“McCain had better win by a landslide or the losers will make the LA riots look like a bar fight!”
I don’t think the “margin” will matter on that issue. But you know, we’ll get through riots - much more so than what we’d face later if BHO were to be elected.