Posted on 09/17/2008 1:56:04 PM PDT by Anti-Hillary
Are you turning Japanese?
North Carolina National Bank -—> NationsBank -—> BoA
No wonder people buying massive January puts on both Morgan and Goldman today. I hope they are wrong. Goldman below 100 today was an incredible deal.
So this is the next one.
Will they make it?
Interesting times.
They are trying to make themselves "too big to fail"
This just can’t be. Why just recently I saw their ads on TV.
Well, Morgan-Stanley is down 10%.
Buy a shovel and invest in dirt with good gold assays.
I think Goldman Sachs will be okay. Goldman may be the last ibank left.
McCain needs to give the American people some shocking Straight Talk during the 1st debate. He should say, “ladies and gentlemen, our government is bankrupt. Washington has spent too much money it doesn’t have for too long, and we cannot afford to do it anymore. The situation is dire, and if we do not fundamentally reform immediately, our government will collapse on the next president’s watch. Our economy is too fragile to pay our government’s debt by raising taxes, it can only be done by slashing and restructuring government at its very core. This is not the time to take a risk on a neophyte like Barack 0bama who only promises more taxes and more spending. Our country cannot afford Barack 0bama.”
As someone close to the fire, the down mood on Morgan is bull. They may indeed be forced to sellout but it is because of short selling and panic and thats the story. It is a very solid company with the most transparent books on Wall Street. The SEC lets the short sellers run wild and sink good companies - they have 180 billion in cash but this is what happens when people panic and the SEC does nothing.
agreed
there is some discussion that the cdswaps, a completely unregulated instrument/market, are actually fueling this problem far beyond its original scope. MS swaps are flying, and the market reacts to this, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It's the same way where I work. I can speculate, and guess pretty good, and I can repeat what I've been told by senior management. But even though I am pretty well clued in, and have worked there (a much smaller, easier to understand company than Morgan Stanley) for many years, I don't know, and can't know, the real financial shape of my employer, outside of what is published in SEC filings and announced to investors, and a few tidbits in my corner of the company.
I do hope that Morgan Stanley does well, however. There are some (public) financial arrangements between Morgan Stanley and my current employer that are no big deal to Morgan Stanley, but that seem to be quite useful to my employer. I'd sure hate to see those arrangements fall apart.
Before the dust settles Goldman Sachs will be merged, too. They will just be the last IB to go.
Yes and no....
The future of brokerage houses of size is dim, and eventually they all will be small or connected to a bank and regulated like a bank.
As for this story, it is more of a strategic play to steer the shorts out of the market.
I work at a bank. I agree completely with you on this. Our casual non-official water cooler opinion is that WaMu is next, followed by Wachovia. I heard at lot of people at work mumbling about buying ammo and canned good. :-)
Wachovia has a lot of exposure but they do have depositers.
I’d say this match works at first glance.
anybody?
GS was making a ton of money in the sort of real estate loans that have now vanished for good. They just did it at arms length. They will need some new source to replace that stream of income. IBs may be a model whose time has passed.
Morgan is looking for a source of capital from depositers if they can restructure Wachovia’s mortgage bundling exposure.
make no mistake Morgan will be driving this car...
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