Skip to comments.New CBS Poll: Obama +5! As expected, look at the internal sampling for bias.
Posted on 09/18/2008 5:27:06 AM PDT by smartyaz
This seems like a fair and reasonable sample to me.
Total Respondents 1133 Republicans 326 Democrats 437 Independents 370
More often than not, a person categorizing themselves as ‘independant’ tend to be nothing more than liberals ashamed to say they’re Democrats.
actually the sample size was 41% D 31% R and 28% I, troll.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
The results from a sampling like that makes no sense... I’m certain there was some lying and fudging going on... if the intent was to demoralize the Conservative voters... forgetaboutit!
sorry about that, I haven’t had caffine today, sorry lol! I misread your post.
and if talk-radio is any indication, liberals frequently identify themselves as “life-long republicans”.
I think he was being sarcastic.
With the differences in this election, and particularly with the selectionof Sarah Palin on the McCain ticket...that simply will not work...and they know it. Thus the all out, vicious attacks on her in concert with their junk-science polls.
But the more the MSM and DNC try to either smear, besmirch, or twist Sarah Palin's words and experience, the more people all over the country will be drawn to her.
It's because of something the left and the elite cannot comprehend and are blind to.
Sarah connects with everyday people. She was mother who wanted to make a difference in her community and joined the PTA and it went from there. She didn't need an ivy league degree in Political Science, she didn't need a law degree, she didnt need rich connections, she just needed honesty, integrity, her faith, and a desire to serve.
She didn't seek wealth, power, or high position...it just happened and that connects with most Americans of all stripes (outside of the leftists and elitists whom she threatens) who in their hearts want to try and help their communities and improve things for their kids.
As a result, Sarah Palin is shaking the Democratic leftist-liberal house to its foundation, and bringing it down. She and her family, their faith, their values, and their story represent the absolute refutation of all the tired old liberal mantras and victimology that they malignantly use to mentally, pshycologically, and financially enslave whole classes of people.
From women's rights, to family values, to gun rights, to abortion, to energy policy, to taxation, to envrionmentalism, and on and on...she is a wrecking ball to the leftist, liberal, socialist house.
This is a total cBS poll.
see post #7
An Independent is also someone who lives in the midst of liberals... and doesn't want to take the heat liberals emit when they find out a conservative is in what they consider their territory.
The truth is, the only polls that matter now are battleground state polls like those from florida, ohio, michigan, pennsylvania, virginia, etc. National polls are meaningless.
Nice try See B.S.
This poll over sampled Rats by a large margin.
Today’s polls should give a better indication of any true movement.
by about 2-3%.
People here seems to always forget that there ARE more democrats than republicans. So the polls will reflect that.
That’s the way I took it. Not sure how you could take it any other way.
upon the third day of bad polling,
the messiah rose up again
bearing the fruits
of email hacking...
We can bash this or any poll all we want, but with the frightening economic news since the weekend,McCain is
going to get blame through guilt by association with Bush.
This may be enough to erase gains of support that McCain
picked up in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania where the economy is the issue. We whistled past graveyards in 2006
and received a rude awaking.
O NOES. cBS spells doom. I’ll have to catch Dan Rather tonite, er, nevermind...
I don’t think we should get wrapped up in these polls. We shouldn’t get too excited when McCain is up and we shouldn’t get too depressed when he is down.
I wasn’t breaking out the champagne last week when the polls were favorable like others on this board because I knew the polls would fluctuate.
The only poll that will give us a good indication is Rasmussen on November 3rd other than that they are all bunk.
We are aware of that. However, generally the Dems of 5.1% advantage in registered voters NOT 25%.
Blame it on the polls if you want, but a few weeks ago, the polls were running in favor of McCain in spite of media bias. Where I live (Northern Virginia), McCain has been getting hammered in ads by Obama. Obama is taking advantage of the lack of rebuttals by McCain to assert more and more powerfully deceptive ads. Our guy is standing in the middle of the ring with his hands down, and Obama is simply pummeling him.
The “Sampling bias” that you see is due to a simple fact, more people identify as Democrats than Republicans. The fact is, this bad economic news, plus the Palin bashing, is going to negatively effect McCain. Thats just how it is. You can bury your head in the sand, or accept reality for what it is. Is this poll perfect? Probably not, but the rest of the polls are going to show this same trend, so butch up.
Exactly. If Obama is now "surging," what is that surge based upon?
I just don't buy that people change their minds about whom they're voting for on a whim.
It’s the latest market turmoil I think. Idiots associate Clinton years with ‘prosperity’ and when they see financial markets crazyness they get nervous and...
- yea my first thought would be, let’s put a socialist in charge, that’ll calm the markets and everyone will sing kum-ba-ya. /sarc
“This poll over sampled Rats by a large margin.”
Ian’t this par for the course with CBS SlantNews, a division, along with ABS SlantNews, CNN SlantNews, NBC SlantNews, and the New York SlantTimes of the DNC and Obama campaign?
Sean Hannity says on his radio show that journalism died this year. Sean is wrong!! It has been dead for a long time!
Now the DemoFascists want to impose the so-called ‘Fairness Doctrine!”
Whatever. Publicizing poll results is an attempt at manipulating the final vote using the “everyone else is doing it” logic.
That never worked with me and it certainly won’t work when the curtain closes at the voting booth.
Yes, but look at the huge margin. Only 28% identify as GOP, post-Palin? I think not.
And even if you're right about them being off by only 2-3%, if you take 3% and hgive them to McCain, he actually comes out slightly ahead (especially since GOP loyalty his stronger than Dem loyalty).
Actually more like by 5-6%!
come on folks - this is silly. We’re happy when the polls are up and we find excuses when the polls turn. The public doesn’t like Obama, but they will vote for a Martian if they are scared enough and now they’re scared. This is not the America of the founders - its the America of “what will you give me”. We may get lucky and pull it out, but don’t bet on it. God help us.
Those percentages are roughly the percentages of registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
Last week, on September 8th, CBS showed McCain ahead and back then, it was a “good poll” that “finally got the truth out.”
Stop hyperventilating. McCain is still doing well in state-by-state polling. Popular vote doesn’t matter, electoral vote does.
NO they are not the correct percentages..at ALL.
I’d like to see the last poll to see whether they over sampled dems by 10%.
It’s 4 to 5 percent too high.
Whatever you say, but these numbers are close to what the other pollsters use.
The state polls are the ones that matter, period. You're right about that, and they are increasingly looking better for McCain/Palin.
But the other two factors that get tiresome is:
1.) Voter TURNOUT by Party ID is roughly EQUAL, not Dems +10%. Only Rasmussen ever corrects for this.
2.) The polls ADDED Democrats from their original samples. Did as much as 4% more of the nation just become Democrats since the GOP Convention bounce? No. it's clearly a poll to show a swing back to Obama that does not yet exist, or at the very least does not yet exist in such a tsunami of voters.
It's a poll taken to give Obama supporters the belief that they are winning again. Nothing more.
If the poll is a “registered voter” poll, then turnout doesn’t factor into the result. “Likely voter” polls do that.
Secondly, why would a polling company “fake” results? There are too many of them and if they produce misleading results, there’s always another one waiting in the wings to take their place. Apparently, the people who believe in polling conspiracies haven’t heard about capitalism.
Unfortunately, the headlines get reported of an Obama lead, never any internals analysis, and that begins to shape the outcome.
If you look at turnout over the last 20 years, the number of Dems to Repubs is usually about even. The maximum difference has been + 4% for the Democrats. No way is there going to be a 10 percentage point difference on election day. Since most polls are now using a turnout model of around + 10% for the Democrats, these polls are way off and leaning much further to the left than they should be.
The RNC is continually asking for more funds, yet what do they do in return. This poll, which overweights Democrats plus Independents should be attacked, and hard. Polling organizations should be held accountable and made to explain both their techniques and their results, But aside from the blogosphere there will be no response.
Because of who commissions them and gives them their parameters.
The polling orgs only need to produce a good final poll, because that is all that is used when measuring final polling accuracy. Nobody outside of right-wing blogs ever questions why three weeks before an election, Zogby or CBS has John Kerry up 6-8 points, and then a tie in their last poll right before the election.
Before the final week, organizations have carte blanche to twist and manipulate numbers without consequence. That's why CBS can produce polls with as little as 26% GOP (Do a FR search) to show “momentum” for a particular candidate.
News orgs use polls to shape public opinion until the final week, then they have to save face. That's why no TV or Newspaper commissioned poll EVER shows the Democrat behind, except after GOP Conventions and in the final week.
Remember how Mondale was supposedly leading until the final week? Give me a break!
That's why no TV or Newspaper commissioned poll EVER shows the Democrat behind, except after GOP Conventions and in the final week.Ever? I guess this Gallup/USA Today poll didn't happen then:
What used to be called professional wrestling is now called “Sports Entertainment”, what used to be called professional journalism should now be called “advocacy entertainment” or “political entertainment”. Today’s “journalists” are even more patently fake than “The Great Bolo” who used to wear a mask and hide weapons in his trunks back in the fifties.