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New CBS Poll: Obama +5! As expected, look at the internal sampling for bias.
CBS ^

Posted on 09/18/2008 5:27:06 AM PDT by smartyaz

This seems like a fair and reasonable sample to me.

Total Respondents 1133 Republicans 326 Democrats 437 Independents 370


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; mccainpalin

1 posted on 09/18/2008 5:27:06 AM PDT by smartyaz
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To: smartyaz

More often than not, a person categorizing themselves as ‘independant’ tend to be nothing more than liberals ashamed to say they’re Democrats.


2 posted on 09/18/2008 5:29:01 AM PDT by VaBthang4 ("He Who Watches Over Israel Will Neither Slumber Nor Sleep")
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To: smartyaz
Already been posted and trashed . Push Poll by the Obama media
3 posted on 09/18/2008 5:29:08 AM PDT by ncalburt
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To: smartyaz; Admin Moderator

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2084725/posts

actually the sample size was 41% D 31% R and 28% I, troll.


4 posted on 09/18/2008 5:29:39 AM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: smartyaz
We need to look at the true internals. How much support does the respective candidate have in each demographic? Without being able to compare apples to oranges, this is a junk poll!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

5 posted on 09/18/2008 5:29:41 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: smartyaz

The results from a sampling like that makes no sense... I’m certain there was some lying and fudging going on... if the intent was to demoralize the Conservative voters... forgetaboutit!


6 posted on 09/18/2008 5:29:45 AM PDT by John123 (Obambi said that he has been in 57 states. I will now light myself on fire...)
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To: smartyaz

sorry about that, I haven’t had caffine today, sorry lol! I misread your post.


7 posted on 09/18/2008 5:30:31 AM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: smartyaz

and if talk-radio is any indication, liberals frequently identify themselves as “life-long republicans”.


8 posted on 09/18/2008 5:30:37 AM PDT by mreerm
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To: Perdogg

I think he was being sarcastic.


9 posted on 09/18/2008 5:31:21 AM PDT by The G Man (The NY Times did "great harm to the United States" - President George W. Bush 6/26/06)
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To: Perdogg

Yep. Thanks.


10 posted on 09/18/2008 5:32:30 AM PDT by Obadiah (I remember when the climate never changed, then Bush stole the election.)
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To: smartyaz
The left and their willing abettors try very hard (as they have done for years) to spin and work the numbers in any devious and tilted way they can to say that their candidate is ahead...so as to discourage other Americans and try to get them to "join the crowd".

With the differences in this election, and particularly with the selectionof Sarah Palin on the McCain ticket...that simply will not work...and they know it. Thus the all out, vicious attacks on her in concert with their junk-science polls.

But the more the MSM and DNC try to either smear, besmirch, or twist Sarah Palin's words and experience, the more people all over the country will be drawn to her.

It's because of something the left and the elite cannot comprehend and are blind to.

Sarah connects with everyday people. She was mother who wanted to make a difference in her community and joined the PTA and it went from there. She didn't need an ivy league degree in Political Science, she didn't need a law degree, she didn’t need rich connections, she just needed honesty, integrity, her faith, and a desire to serve.

She didn't seek wealth, power, or high position...it just happened and that connects with most Americans of all stripes (outside of the leftists and elitists whom she threatens) who in their hearts want to try and help their communities and improve things for their kids.

As a result, Sarah Palin is shaking the Democratic leftist-liberal house to its foundation, and bringing it down. She and her family, their faith, their values, and their story represent the absolute refutation of all the tired old liberal mantras and victimology that they malignantly use to mentally, pshycologically, and financially enslave whole classes of people.

From women's rights, to family values, to gun rights, to abortion, to energy policy, to taxation, to envrionmentalism, and on and on...she is a wrecking ball to the leftist, liberal, socialist house.


SARAH PALIN TRUMPS OBAMA-BIDEN

11 posted on 09/18/2008 5:32:35 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: smartyaz

This is a total cBS poll.


12 posted on 09/18/2008 5:32:37 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: The G Man

see post #7


13 posted on 09/18/2008 5:33:21 AM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: smartyaz
C-->BS appears to be engaged in trying to prop up the poor widdle feelings of Obamassiah and his minions.

An Independent is also someone who lives in the midst of liberals... and doesn't want to take the heat liberals emit when they find out a conservative is in what they consider their territory.

14 posted on 09/18/2008 5:33:30 AM PDT by xtinct (Suicide Hotline... !! "Obama here" --> Please Hold...)
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To: smartyaz

The truth is, the only polls that matter now are battleground state polls like those from florida, ohio, michigan, pennsylvania, virginia, etc. National polls are meaningless.


15 posted on 09/18/2008 5:34:06 AM PDT by MNnice (Da ma Dakota)
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To: smartyaz

Nice try See B.S.


16 posted on 09/18/2008 5:37:43 AM PDT by sarasota
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To: smartyaz

This poll over sampled Rats by a large margin.


17 posted on 09/18/2008 5:39:23 AM PDT by KansasGirl (READ MY LIPSTICK!!!)
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To: VaBthang4

Today’s polls should give a better indication of any true movement.


18 posted on 09/18/2008 5:40:09 AM PDT by soupcon
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To: KansasGirl

by about 2-3%.

People here seems to always forget that there ARE more democrats than republicans. So the polls will reflect that.


19 posted on 09/18/2008 5:42:35 AM PDT by buckeye12
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To: The G Man

That’s the way I took it. Not sure how you could take it any other way.


20 posted on 09/18/2008 5:42:52 AM PDT by Lee'sGhost (Johnny Rico picked the wrong girl!)
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To: smartyaz

(s)
a lo
upon the third day of bad polling,
the messiah rose up again
bearing the fruits
of email hacking...
(/s)


21 posted on 09/18/2008 5:43:14 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: MNnice

We can bash this or any poll all we want, but with the frightening economic news since the weekend,McCain is
going to get blame through guilt by association with Bush.

This may be enough to erase gains of support that McCain
picked up in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania where the economy is the issue. We whistled past graveyards in 2006
and received a rude awaking.


22 posted on 09/18/2008 5:44:43 AM PDT by buckalfa (confused and bewildered)
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To: smartyaz

O NOES. cBS spells doom. I’ll have to catch Dan Rather tonite, er, nevermind...


23 posted on 09/18/2008 5:46:00 AM PDT by eureka! (Former: McCain....I guess. Now: McCain/Palin....For d*mn sure, Big Time!)
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To: All

I don’t think we should get wrapped up in these polls. We shouldn’t get too excited when McCain is up and we shouldn’t get too depressed when he is down.

I wasn’t breaking out the champagne last week when the polls were favorable like others on this board because I knew the polls would fluctuate.

The only poll that will give us a good indication is Rasmussen on November 3rd other than that they are all bunk.


24 posted on 09/18/2008 5:47:11 AM PDT by ClarenceThomasfan (Praise the Lord, we will never have to hear the words "President Hillary Rodham Clinton")
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To: buckeye12

We are aware of that. However, generally the Dems of 5.1% advantage in registered voters NOT 25%.


25 posted on 09/18/2008 5:49:33 AM PDT by smartyaz
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To: smartyaz

Blame it on the polls if you want, but a few weeks ago, the polls were running in favor of McCain in spite of media bias. Where I live (Northern Virginia), McCain has been getting hammered in ads by Obama. Obama is taking advantage of the lack of rebuttals by McCain to assert more and more powerfully deceptive ads. Our guy is standing in the middle of the ring with his hands down, and Obama is simply pummeling him.


26 posted on 09/18/2008 5:50:37 AM PDT by dangus
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To: smartyaz

The “Sampling bias” that you see is due to a simple fact, more people identify as Democrats than Republicans. The fact is, this bad economic news, plus the Palin bashing, is going to negatively effect McCain. Thats just how it is. You can bury your head in the sand, or accept reality for what it is. Is this poll perfect? Probably not, but the rest of the polls are going to show this same trend, so butch up.


27 posted on 09/18/2008 5:59:34 AM PDT by Paradox (Obama, the Audacity of Hype.)
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To: John123
The results from a sampling like that makes no sense... I’m certain there was some lying and fudging going on

Exactly. If Obama is now "surging," what is that surge based upon?

I just don't buy that people change their minds about whom they're voting for on a whim.

28 posted on 09/18/2008 5:59:42 AM PDT by Lou L
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To: Lou L

It’s the latest market turmoil I think. Idiots associate Clinton years with ‘prosperity’ and when they see financial markets crazyness they get nervous and...

- yea my first thought would be, let’s put a socialist in charge, that’ll calm the markets and everyone will sing kum-ba-ya. /sarc


29 posted on 09/18/2008 6:05:06 AM PDT by farlander (Try not to wear milk bone underwear - it's a dog eat dog financial world)
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To: KansasGirl

“This poll over sampled Rats by a large margin.”

Ian’t this par for the course with CBS SlantNews, a division, along with ABS SlantNews, CNN SlantNews, NBC SlantNews, and the New York SlantTimes of the DNC and Obama campaign?

Sean Hannity says on his radio show that journalism died this year. Sean is wrong!! It has been dead for a long time!

Now the DemoFascists want to impose the so-called ‘Fairness Doctrine!”


30 posted on 09/18/2008 6:05:21 AM PDT by VRWCRick
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To: smartyaz

Whatever. Publicizing poll results is an attempt at manipulating the final vote using the “everyone else is doing it” logic.

That never worked with me and it certainly won’t work when the curtain closes at the voting booth.


31 posted on 09/18/2008 6:06:20 AM PDT by mikey_hates_everything
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To: buckeye12
"People here seems to always forget that there ARE more democrats than republicans. So the polls will reflect that."

Yes, but look at the huge margin. Only 28% identify as GOP, post-Palin? I think not.

And even if you're right about them being off by only 2-3%, if you take 3% and hgive them to McCain, he actually comes out slightly ahead (especially since GOP loyalty his stronger than Dem loyalty).

32 posted on 09/18/2008 6:13:32 AM PDT by cookcounty ("A ship in harbor is safe, but that's not why the ship is built." ---Governor Sarah Palin)
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To: buckeye12

Hi Obama.

Actually more like by 5-6%!


33 posted on 09/18/2008 6:15:46 AM PDT by KansasGirl (READ MY LIPSTICK!!!)
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To: smartyaz

come on folks - this is silly. We’re happy when the polls are up and we find excuses when the polls turn. The public doesn’t like Obama, but they will vote for a Martian if they are scared enough and now they’re scared. This is not the America of the founders - its the America of “what will you give me”. We may get lucky and pull it out, but don’t bet on it. God help us.


34 posted on 09/18/2008 6:18:05 AM PDT by NKStarr
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To: smartyaz

Those percentages are roughly the percentages of registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents.

Last week, on September 8th, CBS showed McCain ahead and back then, it was a “good poll” that “finally got the truth out.”

Stop hyperventilating. McCain is still doing well in state-by-state polling. Popular vote doesn’t matter, electoral vote does.


35 posted on 09/18/2008 6:20:09 AM PDT by Mr. Know It All (Quicumque vult salvus esse, ante omnia opus est, ut teneat catholicam fidem)
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To: Mr. Know It All

NO they are not the correct percentages..at ALL.
I’d like to see the last poll to see whether they over sampled dems by 10%.
It’s 4 to 5 percent too high.


36 posted on 09/18/2008 6:28:15 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart

Whatever you say, but these numbers are close to what the other pollsters use.


37 posted on 09/18/2008 6:34:47 AM PDT by Mr. Know It All (Quicumque vult salvus esse, ante omnia opus est, ut teneat catholicam fidem)
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To: Mr. Know It All
Actually, the gap is not quite that wide. Registration gap is about 7 percent nationally, and 5 percent by generic ID in recent polls.

The state polls are the ones that matter, period. You're right about that, and they are increasingly looking better for McCain/Palin.

But the other two factors that get tiresome is:

1.) Voter TURNOUT by Party ID is roughly EQUAL, not Dems +10%. Only Rasmussen ever corrects for this.

2.) The polls ADDED Democrats from their original samples. Did as much as 4% more of the nation just become Democrats since the GOP Convention bounce? No. it's clearly a poll to show a swing back to Obama that does not yet exist, or at the very least does not yet exist in such a tsunami of voters.

It's a poll taken to give Obama supporters the belief that they are winning again. Nothing more.

38 posted on 09/18/2008 6:43:53 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: TitansAFC

If the poll is a “registered voter” poll, then turnout doesn’t factor into the result. “Likely voter” polls do that.

Secondly, why would a polling company “fake” results? There are too many of them and if they produce misleading results, there’s always another one waiting in the wings to take their place. Apparently, the people who believe in polling conspiracies haven’t heard about capitalism.


39 posted on 09/18/2008 6:47:16 AM PDT by Mr. Know It All (Quicumque vult salvus esse, ante omnia opus est, ut teneat catholicam fidem)
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To: All; smartyaz

Unfortunately, the headlines get reported of an Obama lead, never any internals analysis, and that begins to shape the outcome.


40 posted on 09/18/2008 6:49:32 AM PDT by newzjunkey (McCain-Palin! YES CA Prop 4. (Family notification for underage abortions))
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To: VaBthang4

If you look at turnout over the last 20 years, the number of Dems to Repubs is usually about even. The maximum difference has been + 4% for the Democrats. No way is there going to be a 10 percentage point difference on election day. Since most polls are now using a turnout model of around + 10% for the Democrats, these polls are way off and leaning much further to the left than they should be.


41 posted on 09/18/2008 6:54:44 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: dangus

The RNC is continually asking for more funds, yet what do they do in return. This poll, which overweights Democrats plus Independents should be attacked, and hard. Polling organizations should be held accountable and made to explain both their techniques and their results, But aside from the blogosphere there will be no response.


42 posted on 09/18/2008 6:58:36 AM PDT by Melchior
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To: Mr. Know It All
-—”Secondly, why would a polling company “fake” results?”-—

Because of who commissions them and gives them their parameters.

The polling orgs only need to produce a good final poll, because that is all that is used when measuring final polling accuracy. Nobody outside of right-wing blogs ever questions why three weeks before an election, Zogby or CBS has John Kerry up 6-8 points, and then a tie in their last poll right before the election.

Before the final week, organizations have carte blanche to twist and manipulate numbers without consequence. That's why CBS can produce polls with as little as 26% GOP (Do a FR search) to show “momentum” for a particular candidate.

News orgs use polls to shape public opinion until the final week, then they have to save face. That's why no TV or Newspaper commissioned poll EVER shows the Democrat behind, except after GOP Conventions and in the final week.

Remember how Mondale was supposedly leading until the final week? Give me a break!

43 posted on 09/18/2008 7:03:16 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: TitansAFC
That's why no TV or Newspaper commissioned poll EVER shows the Democrat behind, except after GOP Conventions and in the final week.
Ever? I guess this Gallup/USA Today poll didn't happen then:
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/07/gallupusa_today_poll_mccain_4.html
44 posted on 09/18/2008 7:38:25 AM PDT by Mr. Know It All (Quicumque vult salvus esse, ante omnia opus est, ut teneat catholicam fidem)
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To: VRWCRick

What used to be called professional wrestling is now called “Sports Entertainment”, what used to be called professional journalism should now be called “advocacy entertainment” or “political entertainment”. Today’s “journalists” are even more patently fake than “The Great Bolo” who used to wear a mask and hide weapons in his trunks back in the fifties.


45 posted on 09/18/2008 8:04:21 AM PDT by RipSawyer (What's black and white and red all over? Barack Hussein Obama)
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