Dick Morris' 2008 Election Map Shows Big Shift for McCain

Newsmax ^ | 9/17/08 | Dick Morris

[chimera]

I just remember the polling numbers were pretty close. Reagan had the edge but the debate was a roll of the dice. If Reagan goofed it could have tipped the election to Carter in a close race. Fortunately, it went the other way.

Like many elections, the middle ground undecideds made the difference. Both Reagan and Carter had pretty firm base support. Carter got his base and a little more (a little over 40% PV). Reagan got his base and a lot more, so he broke 50%. Anderson took about 3% from each, IMO.

This year may be similar. To win McCain or Obama must reach beyond their base. Obama had the early edge on the undecideds but I think as they took a closer look some of them found him not their cup of tea, so they shifted over to McCain. Enough to make it close. It will be a sprint to the finish, with the media hammering on McCain/Palin all the way while giving Bummer a pass (what else is new?).