Skip to comments.Election 2008: Maine Presidential Election [Maine in Play? Obama +4]
Posted on 09/19/2008 3:15:54 PM PDT by flyfree
John McCain has pulled within four points of Barack Obama in Maine. Thats the closest he has been in any of the six monthly polls Rasmussen Reports has conducted in the state since April.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Maine voters finds Obama with 50% of the vote and McCain with 46%
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Good. Remember that Maine splits it’s electoral votes. If the race is this close, they can split them up.
I like seeing that. Maine 2 is then in play (Not much of a chance in Maine 1 thanks to Portland)
I doubt Maine is really “in play.” Yet doesn’t Maine possibly split its electoral votes? How do they calculate that?
It would be good if McCain culd pick up some of Maine’s electoral votes. I believe they are divided among the districts. It could be a tie breaker in a close election.
I think that if the trends line stay this way, they’ll start talking about it. I wish I knew!
I bet the national polls are being conducted with an uneven amount of NYC voters.
Maine often gets weird when they finally vote for POTUS/VP in the general election. The percent of voters that voted for Ross Perot in ‘92 was amazing.
I previously estimated that McCain would do 4-6 points better than Bush in the 2nd CD but 4-6 points worse in the 1st CD, all things being equal, which would put the 2nd CD at about a tie at best. But if McCain raises his overall Maine performance even two points, he would have a real good chance at a narrow win in CD2.
But Maine splits its electoral votes. The winner in each congressional district gets 1 EV, and the overall winner in the state gets 2 EV. Even if McCain didn't win Maine, he still might be able to peal off one EV from it. It is possible for a candidate to win 1, 3, or 4 EV from Maine.
Which is why no candidate has seriously campaigned there in 40 years. Max gain, 1 EV.
Money spent in Maine is even more wasteful than in NJ.
Doesn’t Colorado also split its electoral votes? How do they decide how to do it?
How does that work anyway? EV's going to the candidate who wins each CD? With the two Senate EV's going to whom?
I very much disagree. There are several scenarios where that 1 electoral vote could deliver a McCain victory.
It is very, very cheap to micro-target television and radio advertising to the second district; the media market is tiny and dirt cheap compared to a metropolitan area.
Nebraska and Maine both use a system where the two Senate EV's (so to speak) go to the overall winner of the state's popular vote. The winner of each congressional district is awarded a sole electoral vote.
No, Nebraska’s the other state. And the Obamessiah opened an office in Omaha last week, hoping to steal an EV or two.
I doubt Maine is really in play.
The black population in Maine is hovering around 1%
And Maine has a lot of Hockey Moms.
Would love to see a big rally in Bangor and Portland!
Maine has two female “republican” senators.
(Which may or may not help...)
Maine has ALOT of hunters.....including moose hunters!
I’m sure Sarah strikes a cord with the hunters of Maine.
I’ve posted regarding this before. Northern Maine (with it’s one elector) could easily go for McCain. It is certainly an area of people who cling to their guns and religion.
Not entirely true.
George W. Bush campaigned at an airplane hangar at Bangor International Airport in both 2000 and 2004. McCain was at his side during one of those visits (McCain was suffering from food poisoning at the time, but he was there anyway).
Bill Clinton also campaigned here. I don’t remember if Bob Dole ever came here.
John Kerry, John Edwards and Stephen King (!) appeared at a campaign rally at the University of Maine in Orono (north of Bangor) in 2004. John Edwards and his wife appeared by themselves on another visit to Bangor, at a rally on the shores of the Penobscot River, in 2004.
Obama came here during the primary season....he won the Maine caucus.
Some national candidates only campaign in southern Maine, which is more heavily populated than the rest of the state.
Here’s why that 1 EV counts:
NH + ME-CD2 = 270
We wouldn’t need Iowa, Colorado, or New Mexico.
Four point spread in Maine! This means we have an excellent shot at least at carrying the 2nd congressional district.
Countdown to McCain
Tune in this Monday when the Republican presidential candidate hits Rachs kitchen!(CBS)
Cooking with McCain
Tune in on Monday 9/22 when Republican presidential candidate John McCain and his wife Cindy head into Rachaels kitchen to share their recipe for barbequed ribs.
From the previews Senator McCain appeared at ease and Mrs. McCain will explain why they love Palin. Of any of them, Rachel will probably be the most even handed.
Every EV will count. NM swinging back to the Messiah.
Colorado had an initiative on the 2004 ballot to split it’s electoral votes, but it failed.
The only states that currently do this are Nebraska and Maine. Usually, it doesn’t happen because the margins by the winners are too high.
What could very well be a VERY important ME CD-2!!!
If McCain can rework some of his Granite State magic, Maine’s CD-2 may turn out to be the most important single electoral vote in history.
Obama has been losing ground since late June. McCain has turned blue states competitive. Obama is going to spend time and money defending the traditionally blue states.
McCain is running a very good campaign.
Absolutely. I’m thrilled about this development.
The campaign knows these states are competitive or they wouldn't be spending the money there. The same thing was said about Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington and McCain is within just a few points from flipping those states. I think the McCain campaign knows where to spend the money.
Buying ad space for New Jersey means buying ad space in New York AND in Philadelphia, two very expensive media markets. I get both NY and Philly stations, and McCain has already spent alot of money on ads in the latter for the purpose of getting PA.
I’ve said it before, but I mean it now more than ever;
I WANT TO SEE A POLL OF ME CD-2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I always thought it was odd that McCain would have “no chance” in a state with two republican senators. After all, McCain isn’t seen as some die-hard conservative right-winger, he should be liked by the people who vote for Snowe and whats-her-face, even if in fact he’s more conservative than they are.
Oddly, now that Colorado is purple, if they had split their EV, it would make them meaningless, because it would be likely to split 5-4 or 4-5, maybe 6-3. Not enough delegates to be worth the effort.
But with all 9 going to the winner, they will get a LOT of attention.
I’d love it if every democratic state would switch to split votes. It would really help us win elections.
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