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Interesting explanation for Obama's "Surge" of late in Gallup Poll
Wizbang ^ | 9-19-2008 | DJ Drummond

Posted on 09/20/2008 11:18:25 AM PDT by grey_whiskers

(snip) It's only a point, but again we see McCain's numbers in this group went up.

So, put it all together, and in the past week Obama has stayed steady or lost support in every party identification group, yet Gallup says his overall support went up four points. And McCain stayed steady or went up in every party identification group, yet we are supposed to accept the claim that his overall support went down by four points? Anyone have an answer for how that is even possible?

Well, actually I do. There is one, and only one, possible way that such a thing can happen mathematically. And that way, is that Gallup made major changes to the political affiliation weighting from the last week to now. Gallup has significantly increased the proportional weight of Democrat response and reduced the weight of Republican response. (snip>

(Excerpt) Read more at wizbangblog.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; election2008; electionpresident; gallup; mccainpalin; nobama; obama; polls
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Read the article, very interesting take.

Cheers!

1 posted on 09/20/2008 11:18:25 AM PDT by grey_whiskers
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To: grey_whiskers

Rasmussen also shows Obama up a bit.


2 posted on 09/20/2008 11:19:40 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod (John McCain and Sarah Palin: Reform, Prosperity, and Peace)
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To: BlessedBeGod

We have to keep working on this election. It’s going to be tight right up to the election.

I’m tired of hearing how this is going to be a landslide for us.


3 posted on 09/20/2008 11:21:56 AM PDT by BunnySlippers (PALIN-MANIA ... I haz it!)
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To: grey_whiskers

The “Bradley effect” ?


4 posted on 09/20/2008 11:22:23 AM PDT by Biggirl (A biggirl with a big heart for God's animal creation, with 4 cats in my life as proof. =^..^==^..^=)
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To: All

I had much rather McCain be 5pct down today. Its along time to Nov 4 and to much at stake for us to get lazy or over confident right now.

McCain should hammer BHO relentlessly on his in ability to release a proposal for fixing the largest financial disaster in my life time.


5 posted on 09/20/2008 11:24:28 AM PDT by Bailee
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To: grey_whiskers
IMHO, many pollsters are reseorting to push polls, cnanging their sampling to get the results they want and try and show something that doesn;t exist in order to influence people.

It wont work.


NOW, NOW, NOW...THERE THOSE LIBERALS GO AGAIN!


I'M VOTING FOR SARAH!

6 posted on 09/20/2008 11:25:01 AM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: grey_whiskers
The polling industry is like any other. They want to keep the interest up. Showing a big lead for McCain (or -- shudder! -- Obama) this early isn't good for business. Making it appear close as long as possible maximizes their bottom line.

This is also the case with the major media. If they announce an early fait accompli for either candidate, their ad buys are going to drop precipitously.

Follow the money. Always. Wisest advice ever.

7 posted on 09/20/2008 11:25:57 AM PDT by JennysCool (A man who served his country well vs. a walking Che poster. Is it really that tough a choice?)
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To: grey_whiskers

I can only laugh and say: “Dirty F-’s!!”

Of course they would do this, 0bama does inspire “hope”.


8 posted on 09/20/2008 11:27:12 AM PDT by ABQHispConservative
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To: grey_whiskers

I think it all goes back to money. The Polls are paid for by the MSM. If the polls are cooked to keep it a horse race then people will tune in to the MSM and generate ratings and sponsor dollars (when is sweeps week?). If it’s a blow out (in the polling) the revenue shrinks because no gives a flying f**K what the MSM says about a blowout.


9 posted on 09/20/2008 11:27:18 AM PDT by IllumiNaughtyByNature (I Love The Smell Of Schmidt Storm in the Morning...and Afternoon....and at Night!!!!!)
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To: grey_whiskers

ping

Long, but interesting.


10 posted on 09/20/2008 11:27:33 AM PDT by Mrs.Z ("...you're a Democrat. You're expected to complain and offer no solutions." Denny Crane)
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To: grey_whiskers

The only one i’ve seen who gives actual numbers is Survey USA and they are way off usually.

A target sample is just that, a target, they may want 36% dem and 31% repub sample but if all they get after they call is 40% Dem and 25% Repub sample, then thats what they use.

It all depends on the randomness. target is just that a target.


11 posted on 09/20/2008 11:27:42 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: grey_whiskers

Obama has a definite shot at winning the election. Do all you can now, and be prepared for the worst.


12 posted on 09/20/2008 11:30:23 AM PDT by popdonnelly (I'll tell you a little secret: we're smarter and more competent than the Left.)
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To: grey_whiskers

Has anyone tried to get a handle on any type of Wilder/Bradley factor within the polling. It may not exist but if it does, to what magnitude is it or can it even be mesaured? How far off was the primary polling in comparison to the actual primary vote for Obama? All I can cite is the New Hampshire upset.


13 posted on 09/20/2008 11:30:45 AM PDT by Don@VB
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To: sunmars

after all Rass and Gallup only say their targets, they never actually say what thier real figure or if they are over or under target, so you cannot tell.


14 posted on 09/20/2008 11:32:14 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: BunnySlippers

“We have to keep working on this election. It’s going to be tight right up to the election. I’m tired of hearing how this is going to be a landslide for us.”

Agreed, because if Obama is announced the winner election night by a narrow margin, all of us here should look at ourselves and ask...

Did I do everything I could to have prevented it?


15 posted on 09/20/2008 11:32:36 AM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: Don@VB

in the primaries Obama basically overpolled around 4 to 5 %, sometimes more.

California was 10% off in the primary, and thats were Bradley had his huge loss? So you never know.


16 posted on 09/20/2008 11:35:01 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: grey_whiskers
Well, actually I do. There is one, and only one, possible way that such a thing can happen mathematically. And that way, is that Gallup made major changes to the political affiliation weighting from the last week to now. Gallup has significantly increased the proportional weight of Democrat response and reduced the weight of Republican response

Well I am not going to throw the consipracy allegation out there yet, but there is definately something off on these national polls.. You can't keep showing Fauxbama losing support across EVERY demographic, yet show him gaining, just doesn't add up. I think there is something that is not being captured in these national polls, I'd really love to see the internal DNC and RNC polling... because there is NO WAY IN HELL either of them is showing Fauxbama up 5, that's beyond any sort of credibility. They clearly are not jiving with the state polling, or what's going on on the ground.. some somethings off for sure in them.

17 posted on 09/20/2008 11:35:28 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: grey_whiskers
An honest weighing of party ID shows McCain not only lead since August but STILL leads! So the only real explanation for the apparent change in the lead is that Gallup changed its party ID weighing formula to give Obama a legs up. There's no other explanation if we go by the Palin Surge factor to explain Obama's seemingly miraculous recovery. It defies human nature and political experience to believe people change their views literally overnight as Gallup wants us to believe. If we go by the data, that never happened. So they have had to change the measurements to make Obama appear stronger than he really is and they're not doing him any favors when all the evidence contradicts the supposition of a lead. At least in the real world. I'd like to hear Gallup explain the turnaround. I bet they won't - or can't do it.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

18 posted on 09/20/2008 11:36:08 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Don@VB
I read (take with a grain of salt) that Obama’s personal polls think that the Bradley affect could be as much as 4%. Obviously that is not spread evenly across the board and will fluctuate drastically state to state. Where you will probably see the greatest affect will be in the Midwest, which is probably why Obama ditched his 50 state strategy.
19 posted on 09/20/2008 11:36:09 AM PDT by lt.america (Palin was McCain's Midway while Saddleback was his Coral Sea)
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To: JennysCool
Spot on!

It's all about ratings and the advertising dollars that come with the ratings.

20 posted on 09/20/2008 11:37:25 AM PDT by Prole (Please pray for the families of Chris and Channon. May God always watch over them.)
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To: HamiltonJay
Agreed. They had to change the ratio of respondents to do it and that's dishonest. I find it hard to credit there are suddenly X number of Democrats more in the electorate than were in the previous two weeks. Party allegiance is not something people change over night. And McCain has held steady if we look at the data, with independents. So Obama's gains have to come from somewhere. Not from Gallup's own data.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

21 posted on 09/20/2008 11:40:52 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: lt.america

I’m from Virginia and Doug Wilder was ahead 20 points (governor’s race) the day before the election and actually won by only a single point. That was, of course, 20 years ago, but still and incredible divergence.


22 posted on 09/20/2008 11:44:44 AM PDT by Don@VB
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To: Mrs.Z
Thanks for pinging me to my own thread.

Now at last...

I'm a REAL FReeper! :-)

Cheers!

23 posted on 09/20/2008 11:45:52 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Names Ash Housewares

I did’t see this blog until now, but I noticed the wacko Gallup internals the last few days....pointed it out to my spouse this morning....basically:

1. In the national polls, the internals show the following:

Preference for General Election by Region

Week of 9/1 to 9/7 2008
Obama McCain
East 51% 40%
Midwest 48% 42%
South 39% 54%
West 50% 43%

Week of 9/8 to 9/14 2008
Obama McCain
East 49% 41%
Midwest 46% 46%
South 39% 54%
West 47% 47%

In the week of 9/8 to 9/14, if the midwest and the west cancel, Obama leads by 8 in the East and McCain leads by 15 in the south. Given that the south holds at least the same or even more electoral votes, shouldn’t McCain be up?

Also, in the ideological breakdown, McCain gained in every category but moderate democrats during the same period, while Obama lost ground:
Week of 9/1 to 9/7 2008
Obama McCain
Liberal Dems 93% 4%
Mod Dems 81% 12%
Cons. Dems 70% 21%
Pure independ. 29% 28%
Liberal/mod Rep. 16% 78%
Conserv. Rep. 3% 94%

Week of 9/8 to 9/14 2008
Obama McCain
Liberal Dems 93% 5% +1
Mod Dems 81% 12% 0
Cons. Dems 66% -4 24% +3
Pure independ. 27% -2 32% +4
Liberal/mod Rep. 10% -6 75% +7
Conserv. Rep. 3% 95% +1

Amazingly, McCain gained percentage points in every category, while Obama lost points, and yet Obama closed the gap with McCain. Something is fishy.

Going one step further, McCain went from +5% to +11% lead over Obama among men, and Obama’s lead among women fell by 2 points.

Moreover, McCain gained ground among White and Hispanic voters:

Week of 9/1 to 9/7 2008
Obama McCain
Non-hispanic white 39% 53%
Non-hispanic black 89% 7%
Hispanic 60% 31%

Week of 9/8 to 9/14 2008
Obama McCain
Non-hispanic white 37% -2 55% +2
Non-hispanic black 93% +4 4% - 3
Hispanic 55% -5 35% +4


24 posted on 09/20/2008 11:46:33 AM PDT by KeatsforFirstDog
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To: grey_whiskers

Thanks for posting that. I really liked how he broke down the individual numbers among the different groups to show how overall poll numbers didn’t match. Very interesting!


25 posted on 09/20/2008 11:48:01 AM PDT by Dawn531
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To: ABQHispConservative

“Of course they would do this, 0bama does inspire “hope”.”

But as we all know, Hope is not a plan.


26 posted on 09/20/2008 11:49:14 AM PDT by roaddog727 (BS does not get bridges built - the funk you see is the funk you do)
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To: KeatsforFirstDog
I agree. Obama's lead can't be explained by the data. The data shows McCain is up among all demographics. So how does the lead flip in two weeks when all the data contradicts that movement? There's some factor that Gallup isn't explaining when it puts out its daily tracking figures. And no other polling organization has put Obama in the lead, apart from CBS/NYT.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

27 posted on 09/20/2008 11:50:36 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: KeatsforFirstDog

Good post. I have been reading all the nitty gritty in the polls too.

McCain has shored up his base and they ARE motivated because of Palin. This is the first election since 1984 that there is a conservative on the ticket. We have someone to vote against AND someone to vote for.

Obama is losing the Dem base to a tune of 17-19% in about every poll (I’ve seen it higher as well). This will be the unreported story of the election (unless we rub it in their face) that “racist” democrats cost Øbama the election.

McCain is winning his precious Independents, we have all heard for years from dems who say the only rep. for Prez they will vote for is McCain.

McCain will easily win the male vote as we do every election. The female vote which is traditionally Dem will swing in a big way to the Republicans.

I stand by my statements that Øbama has Ø chance of winning in November.


28 posted on 09/20/2008 11:53:34 AM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: grey_whiskers

McLiberal sucks and the election is Obama’s to lose. McLoser is TOO OLD and TOO DC. With the economy floundering and Bush failing to address the ‘Rats with his NEW TONE, it plays right into Barry’s hands. The GOP is stuck on stupid .. Palin is hope but the current GOP are spineless.


29 posted on 09/20/2008 11:54:47 AM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Palin is sugar on a turd ... No mas Juan "Traitor Rat" McAmnesty)
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To: BunnySlippers

I’m tired of hearing how this is going to be a landslide for us.

_____________

It’s going to be a landslide for us. ; )

That doesn’t mean anyone has stopped working.


30 posted on 09/20/2008 11:55:16 AM PDT by word_warrior_bob (You can now see my amazing doggie and new puppy on my homepage!! Come say hello to Jake & Sonny)
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To: HamiltonJay
You can't keep showing Fauxbama losing support across EVERY demographic, yet show him gaining, just doesn't add up.

Maybe they are just including areas with dead democrats (graveyards) in the polls...

31 posted on 09/20/2008 11:57:27 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly.)
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To: KeatsforFirstDog

I went to the Gallup site and clicked on the link to the internal results. It says “how the race stands today” or something like that, but the latest figures appear to end at Sept. 14. That’s almost a week ago. During that week they show Obama surging into a lead. I’d like to see those internals updated to say, yesterday. I wonder why they haven’t updated them.


32 posted on 09/20/2008 11:58:23 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: popdonnelly

of course he does...but so did Kerry. so what? We haven’t had one debate yet. And ask good as a teleprompt reader Obama is...and HE IS GOOD. McCain is GREAT at answering questions directly. This is where his lengthy military background comes in handy. He gets to the point.


33 posted on 09/20/2008 11:59:52 AM PDT by Katya (Homo Nosce Te Ipsum)
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To: Names Ash Housewares

God is in control.

He has always blessed us with the right leaders at the right time.


34 posted on 09/20/2008 12:00:48 PM PDT by se_ohio_young_conservative
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To: Don@VB
The racism is all within the Democratic Party too. That is what the MSM tries to gloss over. They call the Republican party rednecks, not as intelligent and bigots, but the statistics don't lie.
35 posted on 09/20/2008 12:02:44 PM PDT by lt.america (Palin was McCain's Midway while Saddleback was his Coral Sea)
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To: KeatsforFirstDog

I know those are a ton of numbers, but they are meant to show that McCains support went up in almost every single subsection except African americans, but still lost ground on the overall poll results....huh???

Another gross error in their data is that it looks like they made a MASS calling/weighting to those in the East....look at these numbers from their internals:

Week of 9/8 to 9/14 2008
Obama McCain
East 49% 41%
Midwest 46% 46%
South 39% 54%
West 47% 47%

**************
tied in the west, tied in the midwest...so a wash

up by 15 in the South
down by 8 in the east

so, you would think that he’d probably be somewhere AT LEAST between 6-7 points up on average for the week if the South and East were weighted equally, right??

I added McCain’s numbers for the week of Sept 8th-14th (49+48+48+48+47+47+47=336) and it averaged to 47.78

Then Obama in the same time frame (44+43+44+45+45+45+45=311) and it averaged to 44.42

47.78-44.42 = 3.35 for the week +McCain

this is roughly HALF of what it should be unless Gallup’s “random” calling is calling A LOT more Easterners or weighing their votes more.


36 posted on 09/20/2008 12:04:06 PM PDT by KeatsforFirstDog
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To: se_ohio_young_conservative

You have to fight for things in life.
Just the way it is.


37 posted on 09/20/2008 12:10:48 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: grey_whiskers
Republican party affiliation went up 2% in August. We have gained a lot of ground since June and the trend is on our side. McCain is in a much better position than Obama. Many of these polls are manipulated to boost enthusiasm and/or depress turnout.

Always fight like you're behind no matter what the polls say. As Rush said...When Republicans are fired up, they don't lose.

38 posted on 09/20/2008 12:12:34 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: grey_whiskers
This is one of the things that has mystified me ever since I have been following politics. This concept of a convention “bounce” to me has always been a bogus claim. Adults just do not wake up one morning and say “Wow what a speech he has MY vote” and the next day go “I knew he was a bum all along! I'm voting for the other guy now...What? he said what? Oh! never mind!”. No responsible adult does that unless they are completely retarded. Don't get me wrong there are retards out there but I really don't think they vote much. Republican do not vote Democrat or vice versa based on one speech or the the events of 2 days.

Republicans and Dems have already made up their mind. They will vote for their guy or they wont vote at all.

There is also a sizable undecided block and these folk either will decide after the debates or they also won't vote at all. I feel that the Independents are looking more on single issues which will be addressed in the debates or they are the realy shallow folks who go for style, charisma and intelligence also brought out in the debates. The strength of the candidate is what effect the outcome as party faithful vote and independents come along for the ride. Which explains why we got smoked in 2006 we didn't show up as our candidates sucked.

As a result I read polls with a grain of salt. Lets not forget in 2000 Rasmussen, Gallup, and Battleground all indicated a sizable win for Bush.

The debates will be telling, then I will worry about polls.

39 posted on 09/20/2008 12:12:51 PM PDT by Pharmer (Dear Ms Palin because of you I am starting a new crossover movement: Republicans for McCain)
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To: nailspitter

I would suspect that we’ll get new internals after sept 21 as it would be the week of the 15th-21; so maybe on Monday, tues, or wed

I’ve caught gallup in the past with these “weird” errors...I remember in 2004 that they had Bush up by only 5 points in the south one week, and up by only a 3-4 among men overall nationwide the week or so before the vote.

Voting patterns can change, of course, but they are not usually drastic and can sometimes take generations to swing in a certain direction...

I’ll be interested to see how the next internals look to...

(and you want my opinion? I think they are all a little off anyway right now because you have to remember that a LARGE region of the south got displaced with Ike, including the 4th largest city in the nation, Houston (4-5+ million people probably were affected in some way); other places lost powers among the south/midwest, etc, all this past week...who answers the phone to answer a poll during a natural disaster?? )


40 posted on 09/20/2008 12:14:13 PM PDT by KeatsforFirstDog
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To: KeatsforFirstDog

On another point about polling that I’ve been wondering about. What percent of Obama’s overall national support in these polls comes from Africa-Americans? It has to be several percentage points. But in the electoral college isn’t much of the Black vote mooted? I mean, New York will go a little more overwhelmingly Dem because of heavy Black turnout (maybe) and so will Maryland. So will Illinois. The South will go Republican, but maybe by a smaller margin because of heavy Black turnout. But none of this makes a hoot of a difference in the electoral college. Heavier Black support could make a difference in Michigan or Penn. and give those states to Obama, but he should have them anyway. So instead of oversampling Blacks, as some pollsters admit to doing, shouldn’t they be undersampling them simply because they live in states that will go the way they always go in spite of heavier Black turnout for Obama?


41 posted on 09/20/2008 12:16:15 PM PDT by nailspitter
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To: goldstategop
"An honest weighing of party ID shows McCain not only lead since August but STILL leads!"

Exactly. They do this every election. As the election nears they start making adjustments so they don't look like incompetent fools. Very soon you will see Barry back in the blue states trying to regain ground among the Democrats and Independents.

42 posted on 09/20/2008 12:18:12 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: grey_whiskers
IF OBAMA WINS, HERE IS WHAT WE HAVE TO LOOK FORWARD TO:

CAPITAL GAINS TAX

MCCAIN

0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples). McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.

OBAMA

28% on profit from ALL home sales.  (How does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.)

DIVIDEND TAX

MCCAIN

15% (no change)

OBAMA

39.6% - (How will this affect you? If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama becomes president. The experts predict that 'Higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market, yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.')

INCOME TAX

MCCAIN

(no changes)

Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250

OBAMA (reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts)

Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750
Under Obama, your taxes could almost double!

INHERITANCE TAX

MCCAIN

- 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)

OBAMA

Restore the inheritance tax

Many families have lost businesses, farms, ranches, and homes that have been in their families for generations because they could not afford the inheritance tax. Those willing their assets to loved ones will only lose them to these taxes.

NEW TAXES PROPOSED BY OBAMA

New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet.  New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren't high enough already) New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating gas, water, electricity)  New taxes on retirement accounts, and last but not least....New taxes to pay for socialized medicine so we can receive the same level of medical care as other third-world countries!!!


 
 

43 posted on 09/20/2008 12:20:20 PM PDT by blondee123 (Vote for the HERO, not the ZERO! Is PRESENT a vote???)
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To: grey_whiskers
So, put it all together, and in the past week Obama has stayed steady or lost support in every party identification group, yet Gallup says his overall support went up four points. And McCain stayed steady or went up in every party identification group, yet we are supposed to accept the claim that his overall support went down by four points? Anyone have an answer for how that is even possible?

I think it's a great deal like the business enterprise that loses just a little on EVERY sale but makes it up on volume.

I'm neither a statistician nor a mathemitician. Still, there is so much of the "internal" numbers of all of these polls that make zero sense while looking at the overall bottom line. Or, maybe it's the other way around.

Let's see if I understand this. In the last two presidential elections, even after all the votes of the deceased who voted for Democrats were counted, the electorate was split pretty much down the middle.

This year, going into the silly season we saw McCain down by four or five points. The Palin announcement broke him out of his rut by energizing his traditional support. So, 50-50 once again.

Now, we have white women coming to McCain, not at the margin, but from the core.

We have Hillary lemmings crossing over, but likely, only at the margin. Still, there are some.

We have married folk i.e. traditional values people shifting to McCain AND threatening to turn out in large numbers.

The young voters, assuming there really are lots of them, started out as Obama groupies, but are seeing the light in ever greater numbers. That may not matter because the energized youth has a habit of losing energy the closer we get to voting day. Still, in Minnesota, where I haunt, I see lots of Paul supporters still showing up at Republican events.

Independents and the mushy middle are breaking for McCain 60-40.

Oh, yes, we have to factor in that 5% of liberal Democrats who traditionally vote Democrat, but this year will vote for McCain because they are racists. (I know, I know, if traditional Republicans were not racists, this year they would make an exception and vote Democrat.)

Anyway, you get where I am going with this. Subset after subset is starting to pick up the chant, "McCain, McCain, Palin, Palin!" Yet McCain is simply losing ground. The answer has to lie in those seven or eight states that were visited by Obama but can't be polled...you know...states fifty-one through fifty-seven or -eight...where Obama campaigned. Then there are those other two where they wouldn't let him go.

Still, the polls make no sense. In the end there is just one poll that counts. If McCain is to win, he only needs enough voters in enough states to overcome all those dead voters and still amass 270 electoral votes.

44 posted on 09/20/2008 12:35:13 PM PDT by stevem
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To: Don@VB
The thing about the Bradley effect--anyone claiming support for McCain doesn't care if they're called a racist for doing so. I think there are quite a few saying they'll vote for Obama who probably won't vote at all--or will vote against him.

When a democrat calls another democrat on the phone to get out his vote, what's that democrat going to say when asked who he'll vote for? There's a lot of pressure to say, "Obama."

45 posted on 09/20/2008 12:36:57 PM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: BunnySlippers

The election will be very tight.

The left is desperate, and fighting with desperation.

The “Bradley Effect” will be more than negated by the “Chicago Effect.”

Every vote, every dollar, every phone call, every bumper sticker will count.


46 posted on 09/20/2008 12:58:06 PM PDT by karnage
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To: grey_whiskers

I think this guy is dead wrong. Negative campaigns work. Palin has been bruised by all the pounding, and so has McCain.

This is going to be a tough fight to the bitter end.


47 posted on 09/20/2008 1:06:10 PM PDT by karnage
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To: Don@VB

The Wilder/Bradley effect will be offset by the Chicago Effect.


48 posted on 09/20/2008 1:07:15 PM PDT by karnage
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To: Katya

The debate moderators will bail Obama out just as the ABC interviewers did on Muslim faith and who does the dirtiest advertising. Plus the MSM commentators will chorus Obama’s knockout of McCain in the debates regardless of how badly McCain kicks O’s dupa.


49 posted on 09/20/2008 1:10:52 PM PDT by karnage
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To: grey_whiskers

I think we all learned a lesson in 2000 when exit polls showed Gore as having won already. GOPs in Florida didn’t bother to vote later in the day because they thought it wouldn’t matter. Other things like that.

Bottom line, we have to vote no matter when, no matter what every poll says. Pay no attention to the evil man behind the curtain.


50 posted on 09/20/2008 1:14:33 PM PDT by MayflowerMadam (Election '08: God is in control.)
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