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Latest: Dick Morris' 2008 Election Map Shows Big Shift for McCain
Newsmax.com ^ | 9/20/08 | Dick Morris

Posted on 09/20/2008 12:15:08 PM PDT by DogBarkTree

There was a gigantic turn toward John McCain in the two weeks immediately after the GOP convention. In large part this was due to the Sarah Palin nomination, and the tremendous miscalculation by the Democrats in attacking Palin — particularly on issues important to women, such as her caring for her children. That backfired massively. The anti-Palin attack by the Democrats showed a cultural disconnect with America that is remarkable.

(Excerpt) Read more at w3.newsmax.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; clueless; dickmorris; election; electionpresident; elections; electoralmaps; guess; madeup; mccain; mccainpalin
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I know Dick doesnt have the greatest record of accuracy with his predictions but I dare say this map is fairly close to reality.

1 posted on 09/20/2008 12:15:08 PM PDT by DogBarkTree
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To: DogBarkTree

McCain’s Numbers

222

delegates for McCain

+ 68

leaning McCain

290

McCain

Obama’s Numbers

146

delegates for Obama

+ 26

leaning Obama

172

Obama


2 posted on 09/20/2008 12:15:48 PM PDT by DogBarkTree (That sharp pain to the LibRat's groin is called the Palin Effect.)
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To: DogBarkTree

Thanks a lot! I just love seeing my state a “dark blue”....uggghhhhh!!!


3 posted on 09/20/2008 12:17:44 PM PDT by NoGrayZone (Michelle Obama...Queen of the Damned (courtesy of CougarGA7))
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To: DogBarkTree

I only want to see tiny little blue dots just every here and there come Nov! You know more like freckles. :)


4 posted on 09/20/2008 12:17:46 PM PDT by chris_bdba
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To: DogBarkTree

Things will be closer for a while as things settle but one fact that is still true. McCain has shown he can be competitive in far more Democrat favored states than the other way around.


5 posted on 09/20/2008 12:18:32 PM PDT by Maelstorm (This country was not founded with the battle cry "Give me liberty or give me a government check!")
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To: DogBarkTree

I really hope we can win WA, OR, MN, WI, MI, and PA, along with the others that we’ve got! If we win any or all of those “blue-states,” Obama won’t have a chance!


6 posted on 09/20/2008 12:18:53 PM PDT by wk4bush2004
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To: DogBarkTree

Oregon and washington are tossup states? That’s a bit to optimistic, IMO.


7 posted on 09/20/2008 12:18:59 PM PDT by Charles Martel (Liberals are the crab grass in the lawn of life.)
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To: DogBarkTree

Maybe, there are some serious unknowns right now such as the Debates and the Wilder Effect and even the Hillary/Zogby Effect on Sarah Palin.


8 posted on 09/20/2008 12:20:05 PM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: DogBarkTree

I’m getting worried if Dick Morris is predicting a McCain win since it is usually the exact oppose of whatever Morris predicts.


9 posted on 09/20/2008 12:20:58 PM PDT by Chet 99
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To: DogBarkTree

OH NO!!!! MCCAIN IS SURE TO LOSE NOW!!!


10 posted on 09/20/2008 12:21:39 PM PDT by I got the rope
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To: Charles Martel

and it has Colorado as strongly McCain, I haven’t seen that poll out there that shows it in the safe category


11 posted on 09/20/2008 12:22:23 PM PDT by Pondo
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To: chris_bdba
I only want to see tiny little blue dots just every here and there come Nov! You know more like freckles. :) ."

You're thinking of the "county" level map from 2004...I don't think we'll know at that level until after the election.
12 posted on 09/20/2008 12:22:35 PM PDT by FrankR (Liberalism is communism, by the drink. O'Rourke)
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To: NoGrayZone
"Thanks a lot! I just love seeing my state a “dark blue”....uggghhhhh!!!"

I live in the southern Adirondacks, I feel your shame.

13 posted on 09/20/2008 12:24:57 PM PDT by Read2Know ("A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity." S. Freud)
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To: FrankR

Colorado is not strongly McCain at all. Dick is wrong.


14 posted on 09/20/2008 12:25:18 PM PDT by drzz (I)
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To: drzz

And Oregon is leaning Obama for sure.


15 posted on 09/20/2008 12:25:44 PM PDT by drzz (I)
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To: Charles Martel

As a Pacific Northwest resident I’d have to say that Oregon and Washington are at least “leaning Obama”. I have yet to see a McCain/Palin bumper sticker....other than my own.


16 posted on 09/20/2008 12:25:46 PM PDT by Aria ("An America that could elect Sarah Palin might still save itself." Vin Suprynowicz)
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To: Chet 99
I’m getting worried if Dick Morris is predicting a McCain win since it is usually the exact oppose of whatever Morris predicts.

So am I. I think he made a bet that the election was going to be Clinton v. Rice.

The numbers clearly don't reflect the last week's economic crisis. So McCain's numbers should go down. They also don't reflect the market's assumed solution to the crisis, and that 800 point rally on the Dow. Which should make his numbers go back up.

17 posted on 09/20/2008 12:26:01 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Read2Know
Lol, Long Island here. So embarrassing!
18 posted on 09/20/2008 12:26:29 PM PDT by NoGrayZone (Michelle Obama...Queen of the Damned (courtesy of CougarGA7))
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To: DogBarkTree

Folks- be wary. This map is irrelevant... It was done when McCain was ahead by 4... Now that he behind about 2 or 3, take about 6 points off of each state, and the Blue states will flip back to blue, accordingly


19 posted on 09/20/2008 12:27:46 PM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: DogBarkTree

I haven’t seen ANY poll showing McCain winning Iowa. I wish it would happen, but Morris’ map is strikingly different there.


20 posted on 09/20/2008 12:27:46 PM PDT by Tigercap (If 0bama had the experience of Palin, he too might be qualified to run for Vice President)
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To: Aria

I’m proudly displaying my McCain/Palin bumper sticker here in the PNW as well.


21 posted on 09/20/2008 12:27:50 PM PDT by tatown (How to piss off a liberal: Work hard and be happy!)
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To: DogBarkTree
The anti-Palin attack by the Democrats showed a cultural disconnect with America

Very true, however the MSM is persisting and attempting to turn even the most vile elements of the Palin savaging into "Conventional Wisdom".

I hope this, possibly over optimistic, poll analysis comes to pass but, as another poster state, Oregon and Washington are "true blue" rather than tossup. Take it from someone who lives in a "conservative" part of Oregon!!

22 posted on 09/20/2008 12:30:31 PM PDT by JimSEA (just another liberal-bashing fearmonger)
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To: DogBarkTree

It is similar to my thinking, but not current polling. I will say Morris is the first person I have seen having Iowa leaning McCain-Palin.


23 posted on 09/20/2008 12:31:24 PM PDT by JLS (Do you really want change being two guys from the majority of Congress with a 9% approval rating?)
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To: DogBarkTree
Obviously, I take this map in a heartbeat. I'm not sure that some of the red or pink states are quite in the McCain camp yet but are moving in that direction. (Unless the election is a landslide for McCain, I expect Iowa to go blue.)

It would nice to land those six yellow states. I'd be happy with at least two. I would rate the possibilities in order as: MI, PA, WS, MN. WA, OR.

24 posted on 09/20/2008 12:32:28 PM PDT by CommerceComet
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To: NoGrayZone
I'd be embarrassed if I was from Long Island too, with all those funny accents and what not. ;-)

Just kidding. I'm from Buffalo.

25 posted on 09/20/2008 12:32:56 PM PDT by LiberalsSpendYourMoney (Barry, you're more racist than 99% of Americans. And you're ugly.)
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To: Chet 99

ditto!

He did tell Hannity in 2004 that the race would be close and that Bush would win a few percentage points.


26 posted on 09/20/2008 12:33:40 PM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: tatown; EDINVA

I have noticed fewer Obama stickers and more McCain Palin stickers in Fairfax Co VA.


27 posted on 09/20/2008 12:34:29 PM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: DogBarkTree

Toesucker on crack.


28 posted on 09/20/2008 12:35:48 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (This gun for hire)
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To: drzz

Does Morris know something that we don’t? He’s got CO strong for McCain and Iowa leaning McCain. I hope he’s correct but this is not what I’m seeing on other EC maps.


29 posted on 09/20/2008 12:36:16 PM PDT by Signalman
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To: DogBarkTree

The electoral map that is accurate is the one that reflects the travels of the candidates.

Obama is traveling in FL that means FL is still in play in his eyes or at least a must win.

Has obama spent time in colo.?

Where is biden he has dropped off the face of the earth?


30 posted on 09/20/2008 12:36:44 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: DogBarkTree

If only California seceded...! Dems would never win another presidential race.


31 posted on 09/20/2008 12:38:09 PM PDT by 668 - Neighbor of the Beast (Where is Michelle Obama? Somewhere a campaign is missing its albatross.)
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To: Aria

Deep in the blue states when you are wishing for red, sometimes it is not wise to advertise. I remember cars being vandalized by the blue people because cars had red stickers on them. The voting booth is the only place it matters.


32 posted on 09/20/2008 12:40:14 PM PDT by Rapunzel (Never forget Fallujah..S. Helvenston RIP.....Sarah...Sarah...Sarah loves America)
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To: DogBarkTree
is this new data?,..he seems to have said the same thing several days ago....

if i've said it once, I've said it a dozen times....this nation CAN NOT send the marxist racist to Washington, one who has had little exp. actually leading people...it can be said he has been lead his whole life in one way or another by other peope.....

ELECT MCCAIN AND PALIN....THE RIGHT WAY...THE RIGHT CHOICE....THE BEST THING FOR AMERICA...

33 posted on 09/20/2008 12:42:28 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Chet 99

WELCOME NEWBIE...THX FOR BEING SO “POSITIVE”


34 posted on 09/20/2008 12:43:08 PM PDT by cherry
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To: Chet 99

WELCOME NEWBIE...THX FOR BEING SO “POSITIVE”


35 posted on 09/20/2008 12:43:13 PM PDT by cherry
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To: wk4bush2004

I just got back from Wisconsin—my relatives there are die hard Democrats and they were raised in Chicago. The last time I was there a few months ago they were big Obama supporters. I was shocked and pleased to find out that they are now big McCain fans. This is mainly due to his choice of Palin as his running mate and their disappointment with Obama’s choice of Biden.

The Democrats and the Obama campaign continue to shoot themselves in the foot at every opportunity—the hacking of the email, Michelle belittling Palin by calling her “cute”, etc.


36 posted on 09/20/2008 12:44:51 PM PDT by Burkean
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To: Charles Martel

Anybody here in WI? I know it was close in 2004. Seems it should be colored at least light blue.


37 posted on 09/20/2008 12:45:24 PM PDT by LimaLimaMikeFoxtrot ("If you don't have my army supplied, and keep it supplied, we'll eat your mules up, sir"-Gen.Sherman)
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To: Read2Know

That’s all right, y’all. You can’t help what the idiots do. At least I only count 7 dark blue.


38 posted on 09/20/2008 12:45:28 PM PDT by LakeLady (Above the fray; below the fray....I just wanna be in the fray!!! Defeat 'Bama/Bidet)
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To: DogBarkTree
I know Dick doesnt have the greatest record of accuracy with his predictions...

If there has ever been a greater understatement on FR then I don't know what it is. If Dick Morris said the sun rose in the east and set in the west I'd still double check.

39 posted on 09/20/2008 12:45:38 PM PDT by Non-Sequitur
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To: LakeLady

I am wondering if we can capture CD-2 in Maine.


40 posted on 09/20/2008 12:47:04 PM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: Rapunzel

Even in red states McCain stickers aren’t safe. Liberals will steal or deface anything.


41 posted on 09/20/2008 12:49:05 PM PDT by nclaurel (I think therefore I vote Republican.)
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To: Non-Sequitur

He was right in 2004. He said Bush would win by 2% and he did.


42 posted on 09/20/2008 12:49:44 PM PDT by Perdogg (Sen Robert Byrd - Ex community organizer)
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To: NoGrayZone

But I’m delighted to see my Socialist state a toss up! Republican headwuarters in my city can’t keep McCain/Palin bumper stickers in stock! So pur on your McCain/Palin bumper stickers and email vociferously to all on your email list.


43 posted on 09/20/2008 12:50:33 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( on the cutting edge)
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To: Perdogg

I’m for 4!


44 posted on 09/20/2008 12:50:41 PM PDT by LakeLady (Above the fray; below the fray....I just wanna be in the fray!!! Defeat 'Bama/Bidet)
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To: DogBarkTree

I hope he’s right. I love listening to Dick Morris trash the Clintons, but his track record on making predictions isn’t very good.


45 posted on 09/20/2008 12:50:57 PM PDT by Hamilcar_Barca (If Obama is elected the U.S. Soldiers in Iraq will have died in vain.)
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To: nclaurel

I think Dick is a bit optimistic on behalf of McCain. I have a hard time believing PA, WI and MI are ‘tossup’ states at this point. Until I see McCain ahead in the polls there, I will consider them leaning Obama.


46 posted on 09/20/2008 12:52:08 PM PDT by WillT
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To: DogBarkTree

As of when? Today, BHO is ahead slightly in Colo which is a must win for McC. The tracking polls are going BHO’s way - somewhat - certainly not going McC’s way. I think his map is pre-economic meltdown.


47 posted on 09/20/2008 12:52:38 PM PDT by uscabjd ( a)
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To: DogBarkTree

Indiana here is “deep red”, as it should be. Dems were fooled into considering Indiana competitive by the large numbers of Republicans crossing over to vote against Obama in the Dem primary.


48 posted on 09/20/2008 12:53:07 PM PDT by oblomov
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To: drzz

Colorado is not strongly McCain at all.<

Certainly not around Boulder or Denver, but pretty heavu McCain territory around Colorado Springs with the Air Force Academy, and NORAD.


49 posted on 09/20/2008 12:54:21 PM PDT by Paperdoll ( on the cutting edge)
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To: Sooth2222

>The numbers clearly don’t reflect the last week’s economic crisis. So McCain’s numbers should go down.

I think his response to the crisis was far better than Obama’s. I’m not sure that it will hurt McCain.


50 posted on 09/20/2008 12:55:15 PM PDT by oblomov
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