The polls in June from the same outfit
CO: Obama 49 McCain 44
MI: Obama 48 McCain 42
MN: Obama 54 McCain 37
WI: Obama 52 McCain 39
So McCain has made significant increases in all of the states based on this last poll.
Also look at the internals that state the party ID.
As DJ Drummond posted in Wizbangblog.com, based on the last 10 elections are so on Gallup, the electorate is 33% Dem, 33% Rep and 33% Ind approx. These polls have a Democrat sample of over 5%. So keep that in mind.
I am amazed at WI. No wonder Palin and McCain have been there lately.
Why O will lose PA, WI and possibly MN and MI.
Even dems agree that 20% will not vote for him. I did a little research. Took the number of votes in those states in 2004.
Actual votes
PA- Bush 2,793,847 Kerry 2,938,095
WI- Bush 1,478,120 Kerry 1,489,504
MN- Bush 1,346,695 Kerry 1,445,014
MI- Bush 2,313,746 Kerry 2,479,183
Then, I reduced Kerry’s votes just by 10%. See how it looks now
PA- McCain 2,793,847 Obama 2,644,286
WI- McCain 1,478,120 Obama 1,340,554
MN- McCain 1,346,695 Obama 1,300,513
MI- McCain 2,313,746 Obama 2,231,265
John McCain will win all these 4 states narrowly. Add to this the Bradley effect. Looks good to me.