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Rasmussen 9/26/08: Obama 50% McCain 45%
Rasmussen Daily Tracking ^

Posted on 09/26/2008 6:29:14 AM PDT by CatOwner

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is Obama’s biggest lead since his convention bounce peaked with a six-point advantage. In fact, on only two days since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June has Obama enjoyed a lead bigger than he has today.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; mccainpalin
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To: CatOwner

Today at the office I (the secret office conservative) have taken this tack:

I’ve been putting a sad, hurt look in my eyes and saying, “I don’t understand what Barak” (always call him “Barak,” it makes it sound like you adore him) “what Barak is doing. He should be in Washington, doing his job. He should be Helping the People. Instead he’s getting ready for his debate. That debate could take place anytime, it doesn’t have to be tonight. He’s acting like an old-time politician. I don’t understand, I—I just thought he was better than this. I’m so disappointed.” Followed by heartbroken shake of head.

It’s getting results. It silences people who support him. You can see them thinking. Helps that as a mother I’m good at expressing exaggerated disappointment. ;-)


51 posted on 09/26/2008 6:48:31 AM PDT by ottbmare
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To: tbpiper

As of yesterday Zogby has McCain up by 2 and leading in all battleground states except VA; this includes PA, FL, NC, NV, CO, NH, and some by 5+; for 2 days Battleground has McCain up by 2 and Gallop has them even. Furthermore, overnight polls referred to on Fox say that polls are showing that McCain made the right decision this week. Something is majorly wrong with Ras.


52 posted on 09/26/2008 6:48:44 AM PDT by Beeman
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

What upsets me is the media corruption and bias. I guess I knew this was coming and expected it but the American people are completely brain dead.

In some public opinion polls, they solidly believe the Democrats are the best ones for the economy, fair taxes and health care. The only thing that Republicans dominate is national security. Which the media has effectively placed at the bottom of the list of priorities.

The latest financial crisis/scandal has been blamed on Republicans by the very Democrats who should be tried and convicted for it. Yet, they are getting away with it lock, stock and barrel, with the media’s help.

This is beyond sickening. Our only hope is a strong victory in the debates.


53 posted on 09/26/2008 6:48:58 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Sara Palin; The Orca in a bay of Democrat Belugas!)
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To: j_k_l

> I don’t see where you get people are “making up their
> minds”.

It seems that the percentages for Obama are going up by a greater margin than any decline in points for McCain, indicating that the “undecideds” are breaking for Obama.

And I don’t mean that this should discourage us, but all the more encourage us to engage and debate, respectfully, those who would vote for the communist ticket.

Meanwhile, it seems that the undecided’s here in the New Hampshire Senate race are breaking for the Republican incumbant, John Sununu.


54 posted on 09/26/2008 6:49:08 AM PDT by Westbrook (Having more children does not divide your love, it multiplies it.)
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To: CatOwner

This is the same pollster who did Portait of America polls back in 2000. Sorry - not buying. He was way off back then. Had us thinking W landslide.


55 posted on 09/26/2008 6:50:05 AM PDT by Tuxedo (Investigate the Congressional Looters)
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To: avacado

It is all about turnout, turnout, turnout, and nothing more. Which side is more motivated to go to the polls.

Our side *is* motivated. The whole point of the MSM effort over the next 5 weeks is to try to beat down that resolve. Don’t let the bastards do it!


56 posted on 09/26/2008 6:51:34 AM PDT by 6SJ7 (Welcome PUMAs!)
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To: CatOwner

I’m sick to these stupid polls. Every day they flip and flop around, one in the lead by 4% points, the next day behind by 5. This is stupid. Nothing changes this much every day.


57 posted on 09/26/2008 6:51:59 AM PDT by RetiredArmy (Dimocrats are Marxists and socialists. A shame that 50% of America identifies with them.)
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To: cookcounty
Going the other way from Gallup.

As well as the Battleground tracking poll and several non-tracking polls. But I think that the problem here is that Rasmussen's polling for Tuesday was a huge outlier for Obama. That day drops off tomorrow. If you replace Tuesday with the Monday polling that dropped off today (which is more consistent with his usual results), I calculate that Obama's lead would drop to 48-46.

58 posted on 09/26/2008 6:53:06 AM PDT by kesg
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To: CatOwner

Scott’s is a tracking poll that lags the daily changes we see in others. Remember the 52-45 Obama lead a couple days ago? I believe that was Gallup.


59 posted on 09/26/2008 6:53:51 AM PDT by jimfree (Dems beat up girls who don't toe the line.)
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To: ottbmare
It’s getting results. It silences people who support him. You can see them thinking. Helps that as a mother I’m good at expressing exaggerated disappointment. ;-)

Treating those office libs as errant children is probably pretty close to the mark!

60 posted on 09/26/2008 6:54:17 AM PDT by 6SJ7 (Welcome PUMAs!)
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

1) This financial situation isn’t over yet and McCain may have some interesting things up his sleeve.

2) There is no reason to panic over this one poll that is moving in the opposite direction from all the other polls.


61 posted on 09/26/2008 6:55:06 AM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (Palin 2008 (oh yeah, and McCain too))
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To: Beeman
Something is majorly wrong with Ras.

I agree. One can get a good case of motion sickness watching these things swing wildly. There's a hell of a fight going on and Ras may have picked a side.

62 posted on 09/26/2008 6:56:10 AM PDT by tbpiper (Obama/Biden: Instead of Ebony and Ivory, we have Arrogance and Insolence.)
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To: DallasBiff

Let’s not forget that Zogby (yeah, I know, I know) also went to McCain yesterday.


63 posted on 09/26/2008 6:56:22 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: Westbrook

My impression is that Battleground polling is more respected than Rasmussen, though I generally like Rasmussen too. But this year he’s had some odd results. In FL he consistently shows McCain even or with a very small lead while other pollsters have usually shown McCain with a 6 point lead or so. Now he’s showing NC tied, which I seriously doubt. And last night he has Obama surging while Battleground shows McCain up a tick. Obviously, both these polls can’t be right but I don’t think we should become obsessed over Rasmussen when another highly respected poll shows the opposite result.


64 posted on 09/26/2008 6:58:40 AM PDT by nailspitter
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To: puroresu

Yes, and he was showing SC as competitive for Obama too, which is laughable. The mayo in his special sauce seems to have gone off.


65 posted on 09/26/2008 7:00:16 AM PDT by perfect_rovian_storm (Palin 2008 (oh yeah, and McCain too))
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To: Thane_Banquo
Obama would have had to get an absolutely HUGE day yesterday.

I think the problem here is that Obama had a huge (outlier) day on Tuesday. That day drops off tomorrow. I'm confident that Tuesday was an outlier because every other tracking poll (as well as other polls) are moving in the other direction over the same period.

66 posted on 09/26/2008 7:02:12 AM PDT by kesg
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To: CatOwner

I can always rely on you to post the ONLY POll hurting McCain. McCain Hater !You will never be posting Battleground Poll. Troll.


67 posted on 09/26/2008 7:02:12 AM PDT by ncalburt
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To: jimfree
Scott’s is a tracking poll that lags the daily changes we see in others.

Rasmussen has a 3 day tracking poll. So does Gallup. They should have similar trends. They do not. Rasmussen, Hotline, ABC/WaPo are going one way (Obama), and Gallup, Zogby, Battleground, and several newspapers are going another (McCain). Most of these polls followed a similar pattern in 2004.

68 posted on 09/26/2008 7:02:30 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: All
NoSpine.cs

Stringbuilder whineText = new StringBuilder();
whineText.Append = "Oh no all is lost\n
This poll is so accurate\n
McCain is screwing it up\n
Palin was a bad pick\n
I saw it on FoxNews\n
You Pollyannas here on FR always want to ignore the polls that you don't agree with\n
Clipboard.SetText(whineText)
Feel free to compile in .NET as an exe and use royalty free in all poll threads
69 posted on 09/26/2008 7:03:52 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: CatOwner

In addition to what I have already said, it simply isn’t possible that Rasmussen has Obama leading by 5 points nationally, but only by 4 points in Pennsylvania. If Obama was really leading by 5 points nationally, he would be ahead by 8-10 points in Pennsylvania. Again, the primary culprit here is a huge outlier Tuesday for Obama, which drops off tomorrow.


70 posted on 09/26/2008 7:05:37 AM PDT by kesg
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To: CatOwner

This is why I want McCain to go to the debate. He could clean Obama’s clock and take the lead back.


71 posted on 09/26/2008 7:08:24 AM PDT by DemonDeac
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To: CatOwner

I guess my responses to a Rasmussen phone poll last evening (South West Ohio) didn’t show up yet.

Must be my lucky week, that was the second polling organization that’s called me this week. The first one was focused on the local Congressional race, but did ask about the Presidential race.


72 posted on 09/26/2008 7:09:30 AM PDT by MrTed ("...at the name of Jesus, every knee will bow...", will it be before or after one's death?)
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To: DemonDeac

I wonder how many people would actually watch the debates or just accept what the MSM tells them happened in the debates. I fear that the latter is a solid percentage of the electorate.


73 posted on 09/26/2008 7:10:51 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner; Thane_Banquo; All
McCain WON last night's Rasmussen Sample by 1.25% the +11% Obama sample from two days ago, rolls off tomorrow.

People forget that this is a 3 day Rolling AVERAGE, not a snapshot.

Again, McCain WON last night by 1.25%

74 posted on 09/26/2008 7:11:38 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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To: kesg
Yep.

Tuesday was +11 Obama. It will roll off tomorrow. Last night was actually +1.25 McCain.

75 posted on 09/26/2008 7:13:43 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

Yes he did thats why all his polls have odumbo moving up


76 posted on 09/26/2008 7:14:11 AM PDT by italianquaker (McCain country first, Odumbo campaign first)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Yup. For examle, I’ve hung up on at least 4 polsters in the last two weeks...


77 posted on 09/26/2008 7:14:38 AM PDT by piytar
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To: God luvs America
I don't believe it. Changing a debate date for a good cause is not going to sink McCain.

The BabyBoma could have joined Mac in many Town Hall debates in the last couple of months and chose not to,so what makes this ONE so important?

78 posted on 09/26/2008 7:14:47 AM PDT by BARLF
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To: freedomwarrior998
Again, McCain WON last night by 1.25%

How do you know this? even if true, that means that yesterday's number is not as good for McCain as the number that rolled off (Monday).

79 posted on 09/26/2008 7:16:08 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: what_not2007

People want bigger government with cradle to grave entitlements.


80 posted on 09/26/2008 7:16:26 AM PDT by NoLibZone (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac - are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'' Barney Frank 9-10-03)
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To: Tuxedo
This is the same pollster who did Portait of America polls back in 2000. Sorry - not buying. He was way off back then. Had us thinking W landslide.

True, but he was much closer in 2004, after he changed his methodology to weigh his results by party affiliation. To be sure, most pollsters pretty much nailed the 2004 election as a 2-3 point Bush win, so I don't know how much stock to put into this result. Likewise, I don't know if that was dumb luck or if he improved his robot phone methodololgy that he uses. I don't remember how good his state-by-state polling was, either.

Again, in the current poll I very strongly suspect here is that the problem is a huge outlier day for Obama on Tuesday. It drops off tomorrow.

81 posted on 09/26/2008 7:16:40 AM PDT by kesg
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To: freedomwarrior998

How do you know that Tuesday was +11 Obama and last night was +1.25 McCain?


82 posted on 09/26/2008 7:16:56 AM PDT by tatown (How to piss off a liberal: Work hard and be happy!)
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To: NoLibZone

Another Rasmussen poll shows McCain ahead a point.

To preserve my sanity, I’m gonna quit paying attention to these polls. Come on, Nov. 4th!


83 posted on 09/26/2008 7:19:05 AM PDT by hoe_cake (" 'We the people' tell the government what to do, it doesn't tell us." Ronald Reagan)
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To: over3Owithabrain
Most of the average voters who don’t go to FR or other blogs didn’t see an OODA loop or any complicated strategery on McCain’s part, they just kneejerk react to Obama wanting to debate and McCain not. McCain may have even expected that and is hoping the endgame to this situation turns things around.

Most of the average voters don't have much more brains than the people that don't vote

Well the majority get the government they deserve --unfortunately the minority that don't deserve it get it also
84 posted on 09/26/2008 7:20:08 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: Piquaboy
I have not talked to one voter that will vote Obama.Yeah, there are many stupid people that will but they are not the majority in this great country.
85 posted on 09/26/2008 7:21:23 AM PDT by BARLF
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To: freedomwarrior998

Where do you get the 1.25% number? I don’t subscribe to Rasmussen’s service, but I do keep an Excel chart where I try to guess the individual nights based on changes in the national average. And my chart is showing the same huge night for Obama as you are indicating here, although for me I am guessing 7 points rather than 11 — still a ridiculously huge number for Obama in a Rasmussen poll.


86 posted on 09/26/2008 7:21:55 AM PDT by kesg
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
The latest financial crisis/scandal has been blamed on Republicans by the very Democrats who should be tried and convicted for it. Yet, they are getting away with it lock, stock and barrel, with the media’s help.

And the GOP sits back and takes it like they have for years --only thing keeping them elected is the grass Roots movement
87 posted on 09/26/2008 7:22:37 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: CatOwner
How do you know this? even if true, that means that yesterday's number is not as good for McCain as the number that rolled off (Monday).

By my calculations, McCain narrowly won Monday in Rasmussen's poll. Right now it seems obvious that Rasmussen's numbers are out of whack because he had one of those 5% nights on Tuesday where one of the candidates polled over three standard deviations outside of the mean (wonky statistics lingo which in plain English translates into "outlier", which can happen roughly 5% of the time).

88 posted on 09/26/2008 7:25:16 AM PDT by kesg
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To: God luvs America

Lets just hope Zogby is the lucky blind squirrel that finally finds his acorn.


89 posted on 09/26/2008 7:26:40 AM PDT by JZelle
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To: BARLF

I sure pray that you are right. This country cannot stand a Obama as president.


90 posted on 09/26/2008 7:28:32 AM PDT by Piquaboy (22 year veteran of the Army, Air Force and Navy, Pray for all our military .)
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To: JZelle
Zogby is not alone. Battleground is also showing McCain +2 and Gallup has them even and seems to be trending toward McCain.
91 posted on 09/26/2008 7:31:20 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

I’m gonna spew...


92 posted on 09/26/2008 7:32:19 AM PDT by beagleone
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To: DallasBiff
JMO, you three above have a lot of money in Wall Street and want to be bailed out.

If you don't need credit or a job, you'll be alright without some kind of bailout.

93 posted on 09/26/2008 7:34:22 AM PDT by Stentor (Obama is Bill Ayers' Renfield.)
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To: God luvs America
Rasmussen is a fly in the ointment only becaause you don’t like his numbers

That's not true. I haven't attacked Rasmussen or his methodology I'm just wondering why his results are so different from every other tracking poll. I'm more interested in the way the numbers are trending at this point in the game than I am in the raw numbers. As I stated earlier Zogby, Battleground Tracking and Gallop all have McCain trending up. Rasmussen is mising the trend. Why?

94 posted on 09/26/2008 7:37:27 AM PDT by pgkdan
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To: CatOwner

Catowner,

ABC/WaPo has already been analyzed and debunked as an outlier. They oversampled dems by 16% (vs 3% actual over the last 4-5 elections), and oversampled African Americans by 6%.

Rasmussen seems to lag.

Batteground is one of the best since it is done by BOTH a democratic and republican pollster.

Regardless, national polls do not matter. Better off to look at state polls, which unfortunately are less frequent and have a larger MOE.

What is really the thing to look at is the internals and demographics of the polls. McCain is winning almost every demographic profile. Women, Catholics, Independants, and even younger voters have shift to McCain the last month.

Obama peaked in February, and has not made any progress in expanding his voter demographics since that time.


95 posted on 09/26/2008 7:38:43 AM PDT by gswilder
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To: avacado
I made the point yesterday, and have been for a short while, that Rasmussen's state and National Party ID expected turnout breakdown is just too heavily favoring Democrats.

He has openly swayed from his traditional models this election season, and I think it's going to hurt his credibility.

He has a rather large - near six point - Democrat turnout edge figured in to his national polls, and is apparently doing the same in his state polls - assuming larger Dem-to-GOP turnout gaps than have presented themselves in the past few elections.

His assumption just doesn't seem plausible. For example, if the turnout was 5-6 percent more Dems, there would be no swing states - they'd all be blue. It is starting to reveal itself in his polls.

96 posted on 09/26/2008 7:39:14 AM PDT by TitansAFC (In 2008, please vote GOP and show us that you love your country more than you hate John McCain)
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To: JZelle

believe me...I pray, and pray hard, that is the case....


97 posted on 09/26/2008 7:44:08 AM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: All
IMO, the 3 pollsters, Battleground, Ras, and Gallup are all pretty good for national trends... Mason-Dixon is the best at state polling in southern states...

The way I'd view these polls is the way RCP does it, but discount the blatantly biased ones, like the MSM polls... So... as of right now, with McCain +2, Gallup even, Ras -5 (Diageo/Hotline is Zero up 4), it's safe to assume that Zero is up about 2 points... Nothing to panic about right now.

98 posted on 09/26/2008 7:46:40 AM PDT by NYC Republican (Infuriate the MSM- vote for Palin/McCain)
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To: Piquaboy
Have faith my friend.

Do you really believe polls can change the mind of one voter this late in the game? I think most voters have already made a choice between Mac and Obama. Aren't the pollsters paid to do their job? If so, then why not jiggle the numbers to create a following?

It's nonsense, make up your own mind. People can lie to pollsters and who's to say pollsters don't change what the voter tells them?

99 posted on 09/26/2008 7:49:04 AM PDT by BARLF
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To: CatOwner
How do you know this? even if true, that means that yesterday's number is not as good for McCain as the number that rolled off (Monday).

Rasmussen breaks down the day to day numbers for premium members.

The Rasmussen poll trended to Obama for two reasons.

1st: 1 +5 McCain sample rolled off.
2nd: A Huge +11 Obama sample on Tuesday.

That big Obama sample rolls off tomorrow. The poll should track toward McCain baring another huge Obama sample tonight.

100 posted on 09/26/2008 7:49:20 AM PDT by freedomwarrior998
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