Skip to comments.Rasmussen 9/26/08: Obama 50% McCain 45%
Posted on 09/26/2008 6:29:14 AM PDT by CatOwner
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is Obamas biggest lead since his convention bounce peaked with a six-point advantage. In fact, on only two days since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June has Obama enjoyed a lead bigger than he has today.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Today at the office I (the secret office conservative) have taken this tack:
I’ve been putting a sad, hurt look in my eyes and saying, “I don’t understand what Barak” (always call him “Barak,” it makes it sound like you adore him) “what Barak is doing. He should be in Washington, doing his job. He should be Helping the People. Instead he’s getting ready for his debate. That debate could take place anytime, it doesn’t have to be tonight. He’s acting like an old-time politician. I don’t understand, I—I just thought he was better than this. I’m so disappointed.” Followed by heartbroken shake of head.
It’s getting results. It silences people who support him. You can see them thinking. Helps that as a mother I’m good at expressing exaggerated disappointment. ;-)
As of yesterday Zogby has McCain up by 2 and leading in all battleground states except VA; this includes PA, FL, NC, NV, CO, NH, and some by 5+; for 2 days Battleground has McCain up by 2 and Gallop has them even. Furthermore, overnight polls referred to on Fox say that polls are showing that McCain made the right decision this week. Something is majorly wrong with Ras.
What upsets me is the media corruption and bias. I guess I knew this was coming and expected it but the American people are completely brain dead.
In some public opinion polls, they solidly believe the Democrats are the best ones for the economy, fair taxes and health care. The only thing that Republicans dominate is national security. Which the media has effectively placed at the bottom of the list of priorities.
The latest financial crisis/scandal has been blamed on Republicans by the very Democrats who should be tried and convicted for it. Yet, they are getting away with it lock, stock and barrel, with the media’s help.
This is beyond sickening. Our only hope is a strong victory in the debates.
> I don’t see where you get people are “making up their
It seems that the percentages for Obama are going up by a greater margin than any decline in points for McCain, indicating that the “undecideds” are breaking for Obama.
And I don’t mean that this should discourage us, but all the more encourage us to engage and debate, respectfully, those who would vote for the communist ticket.
Meanwhile, it seems that the undecided’s here in the New Hampshire Senate race are breaking for the Republican incumbant, John Sununu.
This is the same pollster who did Portait of America polls back in 2000. Sorry - not buying. He was way off back then. Had us thinking W landslide.
It is all about turnout, turnout, turnout, and nothing more. Which side is more motivated to go to the polls.
Our side *is* motivated. The whole point of the MSM effort over the next 5 weeks is to try to beat down that resolve. Don’t let the bastards do it!
I’m sick to these stupid polls. Every day they flip and flop around, one in the lead by 4% points, the next day behind by 5. This is stupid. Nothing changes this much every day.
As well as the Battleground tracking poll and several non-tracking polls. But I think that the problem here is that Rasmussen's polling for Tuesday was a huge outlier for Obama. That day drops off tomorrow. If you replace Tuesday with the Monday polling that dropped off today (which is more consistent with his usual results), I calculate that Obama's lead would drop to 48-46.
Scott’s is a tracking poll that lags the daily changes we see in others. Remember the 52-45 Obama lead a couple days ago? I believe that was Gallup.
Treating those office libs as errant children is probably pretty close to the mark!
1) This financial situation isn’t over yet and McCain may have some interesting things up his sleeve.
2) There is no reason to panic over this one poll that is moving in the opposite direction from all the other polls.
I agree. One can get a good case of motion sickness watching these things swing wildly. There's a hell of a fight going on and Ras may have picked a side.
Let’s not forget that Zogby (yeah, I know, I know) also went to McCain yesterday.
My impression is that Battleground polling is more respected than Rasmussen, though I generally like Rasmussen too. But this year he’s had some odd results. In FL he consistently shows McCain even or with a very small lead while other pollsters have usually shown McCain with a 6 point lead or so. Now he’s showing NC tied, which I seriously doubt. And last night he has Obama surging while Battleground shows McCain up a tick. Obviously, both these polls can’t be right but I don’t think we should become obsessed over Rasmussen when another highly respected poll shows the opposite result.
Yes, and he was showing SC as competitive for Obama too, which is laughable. The mayo in his special sauce seems to have gone off.
I think the problem here is that Obama had a huge (outlier) day on Tuesday. That day drops off tomorrow. I'm confident that Tuesday was an outlier because every other tracking poll (as well as other polls) are moving in the other direction over the same period.
I can always rely on you to post the ONLY POll hurting McCain. McCain Hater !You will never be posting Battleground Poll. Troll.
Rasmussen has a 3 day tracking poll. So does Gallup. They should have similar trends. They do not. Rasmussen, Hotline, ABC/WaPo are going one way (Obama), and Gallup, Zogby, Battleground, and several newspapers are going another (McCain). Most of these polls followed a similar pattern in 2004.
In addition to what I have already said, it simply isn’t possible that Rasmussen has Obama leading by 5 points nationally, but only by 4 points in Pennsylvania. If Obama was really leading by 5 points nationally, he would be ahead by 8-10 points in Pennsylvania. Again, the primary culprit here is a huge outlier Tuesday for Obama, which drops off tomorrow.
This is why I want McCain to go to the debate. He could clean Obama’s clock and take the lead back.
I guess my responses to a Rasmussen phone poll last evening (South West Ohio) didn’t show up yet.
Must be my lucky week, that was the second polling organization that’s called me this week. The first one was focused on the local Congressional race, but did ask about the Presidential race.
I wonder how many people would actually watch the debates or just accept what the MSM tells them happened in the debates. I fear that the latter is a solid percentage of the electorate.
People forget that this is a 3 day Rolling AVERAGE, not a snapshot.
Again, McCain WON last night by 1.25%
Tuesday was +11 Obama. It will roll off tomorrow. Last night was actually +1.25 McCain.
Yes he did thats why all his polls have odumbo moving up
Yup. For examle, I’ve hung up on at least 4 polsters in the last two weeks...
The BabyBoma could have joined Mac in many Town Hall debates in the last couple of months and chose not to,so what makes this ONE so important?
How do you know this? even if true, that means that yesterday's number is not as good for McCain as the number that rolled off (Monday).
People want bigger government with cradle to grave entitlements.
True, but he was much closer in 2004, after he changed his methodology to weigh his results by party affiliation. To be sure, most pollsters pretty much nailed the 2004 election as a 2-3 point Bush win, so I don't know how much stock to put into this result. Likewise, I don't know if that was dumb luck or if he improved his robot phone methodololgy that he uses. I don't remember how good his state-by-state polling was, either.
Again, in the current poll I very strongly suspect here is that the problem is a huge outlier day for Obama on Tuesday. It drops off tomorrow.
How do you know that Tuesday was +11 Obama and last night was +1.25 McCain?
Another Rasmussen poll shows McCain ahead a point.
To preserve my sanity, I’m gonna quit paying attention to these polls. Come on, Nov. 4th!
Where do you get the 1.25% number? I don’t subscribe to Rasmussen’s service, but I do keep an Excel chart where I try to guess the individual nights based on changes in the national average. And my chart is showing the same huge night for Obama as you are indicating here, although for me I am guessing 7 points rather than 11 — still a ridiculously huge number for Obama in a Rasmussen poll.
By my calculations, McCain narrowly won Monday in Rasmussen's poll. Right now it seems obvious that Rasmussen's numbers are out of whack because he had one of those 5% nights on Tuesday where one of the candidates polled over three standard deviations outside of the mean (wonky statistics lingo which in plain English translates into "outlier", which can happen roughly 5% of the time).
Lets just hope Zogby is the lucky blind squirrel that finally finds his acorn.
I sure pray that you are right. This country cannot stand a Obama as president.
I’m gonna spew...
If you don't need credit or a job, you'll be alright without some kind of bailout.
That's not true. I haven't attacked Rasmussen or his methodology I'm just wondering why his results are so different from every other tracking poll. I'm more interested in the way the numbers are trending at this point in the game than I am in the raw numbers. As I stated earlier Zogby, Battleground Tracking and Gallop all have McCain trending up. Rasmussen is mising the trend. Why?
ABC/WaPo has already been analyzed and debunked as an outlier. They oversampled dems by 16% (vs 3% actual over the last 4-5 elections), and oversampled African Americans by 6%.
Rasmussen seems to lag.
Batteground is one of the best since it is done by BOTH a democratic and republican pollster.
Regardless, national polls do not matter. Better off to look at state polls, which unfortunately are less frequent and have a larger MOE.
What is really the thing to look at is the internals and demographics of the polls. McCain is winning almost every demographic profile. Women, Catholics, Independants, and even younger voters have shift to McCain the last month.
Obama peaked in February, and has not made any progress in expanding his voter demographics since that time.
He has openly swayed from his traditional models this election season, and I think it's going to hurt his credibility.
He has a rather large - near six point - Democrat turnout edge figured in to his national polls, and is apparently doing the same in his state polls - assuming larger Dem-to-GOP turnout gaps than have presented themselves in the past few elections.
His assumption just doesn't seem plausible. For example, if the turnout was 5-6 percent more Dems, there would be no swing states - they'd all be blue. It is starting to reveal itself in his polls.
believe me...I pray, and pray hard, that is the case....
The way I'd view these polls is the way RCP does it, but discount the blatantly biased ones, like the MSM polls... So... as of right now, with McCain +2, Gallup even, Ras -5 (Diageo/Hotline is Zero up 4), it's safe to assume that Zero is up about 2 points... Nothing to panic about right now.
Do you really believe polls can change the mind of one voter this late in the game? I think most voters have already made a choice between Mac and Obama. Aren't the pollsters paid to do their job? If so, then why not jiggle the numbers to create a following?
It's nonsense, make up your own mind. People can lie to pollsters and who's to say pollsters don't change what the voter tells them?
Rasmussen breaks down the day to day numbers for premium members.
The Rasmussen poll trended to Obama for two reasons.
1st: 1 +5 McCain sample rolled off.
2nd: A Huge +11 Obama sample on Tuesday.
That big Obama sample rolls off tomorrow. The poll should track toward McCain baring another huge Obama sample tonight.