Skip to comments.Battleground Drops It weighting ( Or A How to Manipulate a Tracking Poll in one easy step)
Posted on 10/01/2008 6:58:45 PM PDT by ncalburt
I dunno- Rasmussen is Republican-leaning aren’t they? I think they have Obama by 6, so there’s cause for concern.
working constantly to demean anything slightly positive....how much they paying you?
There is cause for concern, but Rassmussen has been oversampling Democrats for several weeks.
I think Obama is leading, probably by 2-3% nationally.
Ras is a automatic/electronic telephone tracking poll and surprise surprise has 6 point Obama advantage built into it based on nothing but a guess .
The Poll spread is 6 point ??
No Rassmussen is not Republican leaning with his polls — been oversampling Dems for weeks since he changed his polling.
I went to the link and read that with leaners Battleground now has about 9% more Democrats than Republicans in their nightly samples. Most other polling firms are at about that same level of Dems over Republicans. Since the last 10 presedential elections (40 years) have never had a disparity of more than 4% between the parties, I don’t understand why they don’t just set the partisan model at that and go with it. Of course, it would put McCain in the lead.
Maybe they oversample Dems because they are trying to account for what will be greater Dem turnout, at least in some demographics. Surely there will be greater black turnout with 98% going for Obama. And, while it might not be a tidal wave, the youth vote will be greater. It was in 2004, slightly. If these turnouts don’t materialize then all the better.
Maybe the reason they’re all oversampling Dems is that the Dems traditionally cheat by several million votes. Now, they’re busing homeless people to the polls in Ohio, where people can register and vote on the same day, beginning now. The Democrats (an oxymoron) will spend this month busing Obama supporters from several states to Ohio and, soo-prise soo-prise, guess who wins Ohio? Is there an honest judge in that state who would rule this is an obvious circumvention of the whole idea of having a vote?
Could it be related to all of the news stories lately about the higher than usual Democrat voter registrations? If so, then the pollsters who believe this will weight their polls higher for Democrats regardless of past election breakdowns.
The next question is, how many of these new Democrat registration are from ACORN, and therefore will (hopefully) be thrown out before election day?
But note, this is my math, it probably more of a guessing game...in any ways, im trying for some good news for myself
I tried extracting a daily average from his 3 day average..
I hope that the bleeding stopped yesterday...
This is my extrapolation of the last few days, i started sept 1st
Sept 25: Obama +7
Sep 26: Obama +6
Sept 27 Obama +5
Sept 28 Obama +5
Sept 29 Obama +7 (this day may have been as good as Sept 25)
For the Sept 30 i see one of the following scenarios:
1- Sept 30 Obama +5 (Means the following (5+7+5= 17/3= 5.6 round up to +6)
2- Sept 30 Obama +6 (means the following 5+7+6= 18/3= 6 )
3- Sept 30 Obama +7 (means the following 5+7+7=19/3 =6.3 round down to +6)
It appears all these pollster have an agenda this year.
I have never seen such odd looking poll in which the raw date does not match historic voting patterns .
I can’t explain it.
Why did Battleground POll Just suddenly change its polling method in 10 years ?
I would guess that the democratic turnout will be higher based on the excitement of the obamaniacs.
also, as the postings in these forums indicate, mccain is losing a lot of support now that he voted for the bailout. I have read several posts tonight of people who will no longer be voting for McCain/Palin.