I went to the link and read that with leaners Battleground now has about 9% more Democrats than Republicans in their nightly samples. Most other polling firms are at about that same level of Dems over Republicans. Since the last 10 presedential elections (40 years) have never had a disparity of more than 4% between the parties, I don’t understand why they don’t just set the partisan model at that and go with it. Of course, it would put McCain in the lead.
Maybe they oversample Dems because they are trying to account for what will be greater Dem turnout, at least in some demographics. Surely there will be greater black turnout with 98% going for Obama. And, while it might not be a tidal wave, the youth vote will be greater. It was in 2004, slightly. If these turnouts don’t materialize then all the better.
It appears all these pollster have an agenda this year.
I have never seen such odd looking poll in which the raw date does not match historic voting patterns .
I can’t explain it.
Why did Battleground POll Just suddenly change its polling method in 10 years ?