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IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day One (Obama 43 v. McCain 41)
Investor's Business Daily ^ | 10/12/08 | Investor's Business Daily

Posted on 10/13/2008 6:01:00 PM PDT by BCrago66

In contrast to other polls, which show Obama leading McCain by 4 points (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby) to 11 (Newsweek), the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll debuts today with Obama up just 2 points with 13% (including 25% of independents) undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 6-12 among 825 likely voters.

Q: If the 2008 election for U.S. president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?

(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electionpresident
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Click the link; the final result of 43 v. 41 cannot be cut and pasted.

I know nothing about this new tracking poll, but I've learned in recent days about the strange apparent over-sampling of Democrats in most other tracking polls.

See the Campaign Spot blog on national Review Online: __________________________

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjlmZWJjZmYyNDk4Yjg4MWI5ZTJjNzQ2NzIxZjA5ZTc=

What Were the Partisan Breakdowns in 1974 and 1976?

Dan Riehl calls my attention to another poll that has a wild partisan split, noting that in Gallup, McCain and Obama are getting about the same amount of their base, and McCain is winning independents, 32 percent to 23 percent. Yet Obama is ahead by 8 percent in the tracking poll for this time period. This means that the sample has enough Democrats to not only overcome the margin among independents, but to provide Obama with a large margin.

Again, to refresh:

In 1988, Democrats had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1992, Democrats still had a three-point party ID advantage over Republicans (38-35). In 1996, that advantage increased to four - a shift of one point (39-35). In 2000, Democrats were steady, up by four (39-35), and in 2004 they dropped to even (37-37).

In 2006, the Democrats returned to the lead... 38 percent to 35 percent.

Now, look. I realize Obama has the greatest turnout machine of all time, and the Republican base, at one point very jazzed about a McCain-Palin ticket, is disheartened by Obama's lead and frustrated with McCain's insistence that his opponent is decent and nothing to fear. But are we really talking about a split of nine percent, or fourteen percent, or sixteen percent, even Rasmussen's comparably mild 5.5 percent?

I am hunting for the partisan breakdowns in the electorate in 1974 and 1976. The former was seen as a referendum on the Watergate scandal (Nixon had resigned about two months earlier), with the Republicans losing 48 seats in the House. Wikipedia says the split in 1980 was 43 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, but I'd like to double-check that.)

1 posted on 10/13/2008 6:01:02 PM PDT by BCrago66
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To: BCrago66

Here’s a clickable link to the Campaign Spot blog:

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjlmZWJjZmYyNDk4Yjg4MWI5ZTJjNzQ2NzIxZjA5ZTc=


2 posted on 10/13/2008 6:02:33 PM PDT by BCrago66
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To: BCrago66
and the Republican base, at one point very jazzed about a McCain-Palin ticket, is disheartened by Obama's lead and frustrated with McCain's insistence that his opponent is decent and nothing to fear.

That's rubbish as related to the base turning out! We'll be going over broken glass and razor wire to STOP the most most dangerous Marxist/Socialist threat EVER to have a stab at becoming POTUS. It's Hillary fright X 10!!!

3 posted on 10/13/2008 6:04:35 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: BCrago66

These nationwide polls mean little. You have to look at the toss up states and see which way they lean.


4 posted on 10/13/2008 6:05:29 PM PDT by freemama
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To: BCrago66

I think you are understating this problem.

People can say what they want about the Obama ground game but there is zero empirical evidence to suggest that the Democrats could have even the Rasmussen 5% advantage. The best reasonable guess to favor them is 3% based on 2006.

Even that guess is a weak one because congressional elections are not good predictions for voter turnout since it is so much higher in Presid years.

Moreover, does anyone really think that less than 5% of dems are going to vote for mcCain? Does anyone think that less than 5% of dems will sit it out to protest Hillary’s loss?

I have never in my life seen so many angry democrats eager to vote against the nominee. I think these combined numbers could easily be toward 30%.

Last week I watched and angry black female supporter of Clinton back an entire hallway of Obama supporters into a small corner with her vociferous complains about civil rights violations committed by Obama workers during the primaries. The media does not cover this but Dems are keenly aware of this. It left a mark and as the more crass are want to say, “payback is a b****”

That is going to be very true in November.

I think the media knows this and they are screwing with the numbers big time.


5 posted on 10/13/2008 6:06:59 PM PDT by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: BCrago66

LOTS of undecideds in this poll. Most pollsters “push” people until they give a response. TIPP obviously does not.


6 posted on 10/13/2008 6:08:18 PM PDT by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)
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To: BCrago66

This is the only polling outfit that ever called me, of the major polls.

The poll worker did a nice job on the phone.

I did not feel like she was trying to bias the poll.

I’m not talking about being polled this year, but in a past election.


7 posted on 10/13/2008 6:13:38 PM PDT by txrangerette (Just say "no" to the Obama Cult.)
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Anyone one have an idea why McCain seems to be polling so far under Bush's numbers with Hispanics? It not like he was tough on immigration
8 posted on 10/13/2008 6:14:18 PM PDT by Hones (Ok I admit it -I love Sarah Palin)
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To: BCrago66
I would still like to see the internals on this IBD poll.

Rasmussen just polled our house twice tonight.



We have two different land lines coming into the house. My father was polled about an hour ago and I just finished the poll.

My guess is that there are some quirks in the system where "random" phone calling ends up polling in semi-concentrated areas as the software program searches through numbers. Thus, results CAN be skewed from poll to poll.

We answered honestly this time, but about two weeks ago in another poll I lied to the pollster who I knew was fishing for Obama votes by the way the questions were asked.
9 posted on 10/13/2008 6:14:54 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: freemama

The problem is, the state polls are not done very often and are often done by organizations that nobody has ever heard of. Because of polling frequency, state trends usually lag the national trends.


10 posted on 10/13/2008 6:14:59 PM PDT by GnL
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To: txrangerette

Looks like an interesting poll, but I don’t get why it averages across 6 days, rather than 3 or 4. Seems like by the time each daily poll in released, the information therein will be half-stale.


11 posted on 10/13/2008 6:18:17 PM PDT by BCrago66
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To: Chet 99

If I remember correctly, this poll was dead on in 2004. Two points considering the recent economic problems is nothing. If the stock market continues to improve a little McCain will win this thing.


12 posted on 10/13/2008 6:21:09 PM PDT by nailspitter
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To: BCrago66
Geraghty’s four point find in 1996 is the widest in a generation and there is no way on God's green earth turnout will be as low for our side as it was in 1996.

In ‘96 we all knew Dole was dead, Newt was watching Clinton, and Clinton wasn't scary just slick (kinda’ missing him now, though *sigh*).

Did you see the rage at McCain's townhalls? Oh, brother, we will be turning out. I live in L.A. and can't wait to vote for Palin and against the little messiah.

We. Will. Turn Out.

13 posted on 10/13/2008 6:21:54 PM PDT by DHarry
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To: AmericaUnited

Agreed. I will be crawling across glass and swimming through a shark pool all bloody to vote again the marxist Obama.

IBD is an oustanding paper and William O’Neil (founder) knows market data and statistics. I trust their poll better than the other pollsters.

This poll looks more accurate because it has Obama at 43%. The other polls are TOTALLY insane with Obama anywhere near 50%. A lot of Hillary Democrats hate the guy. You hear about one or two isnane Repubs who are supporting Obama like loser Chuck Hagel but the numbers are tiny.

When was the last Dem to break 50%? I think Clinton missed it in 1996 and Carter had maybe 50.1%. A lot of people loathe Obama.


14 posted on 10/13/2008 6:22:07 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: Thickman

The internals are there.... This poll seems to have an equal weighting between R and D, too optimistic, IMO


15 posted on 10/13/2008 6:23:54 PM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: Thickman

Lying when polled isn’t a good idea. In fact, lying isn’t a good idea, period.


16 posted on 10/13/2008 6:24:25 PM PDT by Chunga (Vote Republican)
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To: NYC Republican
The internals are there.... This poll seems to have an equal weighting between R and D, too optimistic, IMO

I'd have to agree. I am expecting a 2 - 3% edge for dummies this election.
17 posted on 10/13/2008 6:25:30 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: BCrago66

What is the track record for this poll? Has it been accurate in the past?


18 posted on 10/13/2008 6:27:00 PM PDT by uscabjd ( a)
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To: lonestar67

I would have loved watching that black lady and Clinton supporter back a group of Oabamtons into a hallway corner. It would have been awesome on you Tube. Bless that women.

One poll said 26% of Clinton Dems will be going McCain but I think it may be 30 to 35%. We can grumble about McCain and we WILL fight with him as President but he is acceptable. Many Clinton Dems hate Obama with a passion.

Obama, and even more his supporters, were horrible to Hillary voters and Hillary. He treated Hillary okay but his supporters are incredibly nasty. They burned bridges to hillary Voters aka PUMAs.

You just know that Bill and Hillary hate Obama. Bill can be a buffoon but he is shrewd, calculating and ruthless. Obama humiliated him in front of the world.


19 posted on 10/13/2008 6:28:55 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: BCrago66

Thanks for posting!


20 posted on 10/13/2008 6:28:58 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Chunga
Lying when polled isn’t a good idea. In fact, lying isn’t a good idea, period.

Thanks for the morality tuner. It was obvious that this was a dummie sponsored poll so I told them what they wanted to hear. I consider that an act of supporting my candidate.
21 posted on 10/13/2008 6:30:32 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: BCrago66

If McCain wins, Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby should be made to apologize for their stupidity in their polling (I’m being generous when I say “stupidity”).


22 posted on 10/13/2008 6:33:39 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: DHarry

Let’s be honest about Bill Clinton. Politically he was pretty moderate on a lot of stuff. Some NE Republicans are far more liberal. I am not defending the guy. I do not like him but I hope he cuts Obama’s b**ls off after Obama loses. The point is many people found Clinton accpetable going into his second term mainly because the stock market was so strong (manipulation again). I hated him but Dole was lackluster and Clinton hammered him from the start.

Obama is not Clinton in 1996. Like you said - Bill was slick but not totally frightening and Newt was watching Bill.

Moderate Dems and Repubs will fight wild dogs and bears to vote against Obama this year.

I expect ACORN may try some intimidation at some polls.


23 posted on 10/13/2008 6:37:41 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: Frantzie
One poll said 26% of Clinton Dems will be going McCain but I think it may be 30 to 35%. We can grumble about McCain and we WILL fight with him as President but he is acceptable. Many Clinton Dems hate Obama with a passion.

A little extrapolation on the Hillary effect - If 26% of her primary voters (those would be the ones that harbor ill feelings) do not vote for Obama and half of them vote for McCain, that would come to approximately 2.5 million votes in the general election that would go to McCain and another 2.5 million that won't vote for Obama (not vote at all for POTUS).

That comes to a swing of 7.5 million for McCain. That would be HUGH and SERIES! My guess is a total swing effect of about 2 million which should enough to offset fraud, increased dummie turnout and increased AA turnout. From there it is up to McCain to hold the pubbies and independents that Bush got in 2004.
24 posted on 10/13/2008 6:38:58 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: Thickman
It was obvious that this was a dummie sponsored poll so I told them what they wanted to hear. I consider that an act of supporting my candidate.

You're wrong about that. At this stage of the game Dem polls are used for propaganda purposes and to engender a deteriorating effect on Republican morale.

25 posted on 10/13/2008 6:39:17 PM PDT by Chunga (Vote Republican)
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To: NYC Republican

You have got to be one of the most pessimistic people I have ever seen online. I don’t even thing optimistic is in your vocabulary.


26 posted on 10/13/2008 6:40:29 PM PDT by CSI007
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To: NYC Republican

I can’t find the internals. Where does it say what percentage of the sample is Democrats, what percentage is Republicans, and what percentage is Independents?


27 posted on 10/13/2008 6:41:34 PM PDT by BCrago66
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To: Chunga
You're wrong about that. At this stage of the game Dem polls are used for propaganda purposes and to engender a deteriorating effect on Republican morale.

No, I am not. Any disinformation imparted to the enemy helps your own cause. Sun Tse would approve. Besides, it did not matter how I answered because if I had been pro McCain, that would not have made it into a propaganda poll. By lying, I gave the enemy a false sense of security.
28 posted on 10/13/2008 6:43:14 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: NYC Republican

OH NO !
The poll actually uses the last two Presidential voter turnouts as the away to measure the 2008 polls .
That outrageous!
The Obama media only allows a 6-10 % Obama advantage in all VALID polls !


29 posted on 10/13/2008 6:43:21 PM PDT by ncalburt
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To: BCrago66

30 posted on 10/13/2008 6:43:52 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (MSM Lied, Journalism Died. RIP 2008)
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To: BCrago66
I can’t find the internals. Where does it say what percentage of the sample is Democrats, what percentage is Republicans, and what percentage is Independents?

Someone posted that it was even D and R but I have seen no link or proof of that.
31 posted on 10/13/2008 6:44:32 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: CSI007

So you’ve noticed Too !
He is very supportive all negative McCain poll data !


32 posted on 10/13/2008 6:44:39 PM PDT by ncalburt
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To: Thickman

Good analysis.

I think a lot of the Hillary ladies will hang in there for McCain thanks to McCain picking Palin. Male Clinton voters in alrge numbers should go to McCain.

The Clinton voters really believe they were robbed and it appears it was ACORN and Obama robbing them. The MSM brushed it off as a story but the Clinton people know what happened.

Obama stole their Dem Party too. This is their last chance to stop him and voting McCain in the hopes Hillary runs in 2012 is the right approch for them.


33 posted on 10/13/2008 6:46:45 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: jwalsh07

Thank you for posting the internals. Did anyone look at the “ideology” section? Now that is peculiar.

It can be surmised that this is showing about 1.5 - 2% edge to Dems in the sampling.


34 posted on 10/13/2008 6:49:03 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: uscabjd

The most accurate national poll in 2004 !
This is not a formula driven tracking poll like Ras or Gallup but a real poll over a 6 day period.


35 posted on 10/13/2008 6:49:12 PM PDT by ncalburt
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To: Thickman

If you look at the internals posted above you will see that many of the numbers reflect how presidential elections have turned out over the past 25 years or so.


36 posted on 10/13/2008 6:49:34 PM PDT by CSI007
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To: BCrago66
There is good news in the IBD/TIPP poll. ANd that good news is that Obama's lead in large part accomplished by a large lead in the Northeast. Which is expected btw. But it is large enough to skew the poll results to Obama. The point is we don't really care how much Obama wins the Northeast by.

Disappointing in the poll is the large Jewish vote for Obama and the even split by Catholics, the latter really pisses me off btw.

37 posted on 10/13/2008 6:50:36 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (MSM Lied, Journalism Died. RIP 2008)
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To: Thickman
It can be surmised that this is showing about 1.5 - 2% edge to Dems in the sampling.

Pretty close I'd say based on the party voting stats. I think they are using 2006 as party ID for weighting, Dems +3. Which seems reasonable.

38 posted on 10/13/2008 6:53:11 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (MSM Lied, Journalism Died. RIP 2008)
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To: jwalsh07
Disappointing in the poll is the large Jewish vote for Obama and the even split by Catholics, the latter really pisses me off btw.

Me too. All these liberal Catholics who vote dummie for social justice issues will not once vote on the single issue of abortion (even when the dummie candidate is for infanticide)!
39 posted on 10/13/2008 6:54:27 PM PDT by Thickman (Term limits are the answer.)
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To: Frantzie

Clinton was only ‘moderate’ because he had a GOP Congress which was very conservative. Clinton was also completely slavishly driven by polls so he might WANT to do stuff but he knew that he would be punished politically and suffer in the polls. And popularity was more important to Clinton than virtually anything else in life other than available women.


40 posted on 10/13/2008 6:55:45 PM PDT by bpjam (FREE Sarah Palin!!! FREE Sarah Palin!!!)
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To: NYC Republican

With a more realistic weighting, would you expect the lead to be something closer to 5% - 6%? Is so, this would basically match other polls out there right now.


41 posted on 10/13/2008 6:56:38 PM PDT by tatown (RINO's have destroyed the Republican party.)
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To: ncalburt
13% undecided means, quite literally, that the race isn't close to being over.

I give much more credence to polling organizations that publish their internals. I don't like Rasmussen or Zogby for that reason alone.

42 posted on 10/13/2008 6:57:02 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (MSM Lied, Journalism Died. RIP 2008)
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To: tatown

2006 was a banner year for democrats. The party ID was +3 for Dems. Do you prefer pulling numbers out of thin air? Or affirmative action for Barack Obama in the polls?


43 posted on 10/13/2008 6:58:56 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (MSM Lied, Journalism Died. RIP 2008)
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To: Thickman

Yup. ..and justice for all, born and unborn. KofC thing. :-}


44 posted on 10/13/2008 7:00:21 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (MSM Lied, Journalism Died. RIP 2008)
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To: jwalsh07

I don’t think too many expect D & R turnout to be even this year. It won’t be a 6% difference but it could easily be 2% - 3%.


45 posted on 10/13/2008 7:01:13 PM PDT by tatown (RINO's have destroyed the Republican party.)
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To: jwalsh07
To say how the Democrats and Republicans within a sample voted, is not to say what the percentages of Democrats v. Republicans are within that sample.

If I run a kennel, and I tell you that 60 percent of the dogs there like pork, while 70 percent of the cats there prefer chicken, you still don't know what the percentages are of dogs v. cats staying at the kennel. So I still don't have the internals of the IBD poll; thus I don't know if they're over or under-sampling Democrats.

46 posted on 10/13/2008 7:01:27 PM PDT by BCrago66
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To: BCrago66

+


47 posted on 10/13/2008 7:02:19 PM PDT by Lady GOP
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To: tatown

IBD is, evidently, using dems +3 based on the party numbers.


48 posted on 10/13/2008 7:02:41 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (MSM Lied, Journalism Died. RIP 2008)
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To: BCrago66
That is about as precise as I've seen any poll......
49 posted on 10/13/2008 7:03:32 PM PDT by Osage Orange (" I did not have radical relations with that man, William Ayers. " -Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: BCrago66

Independents are +2. Obama is + 2. McCain two points does better with republicans than Barack does with democrats and gets 2 points more democrats than Obama does from republicans. I think we can infer from that that IBD is using a Dem +2 or 3 weighting.


50 posted on 10/13/2008 7:08:03 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (MSM Lied, Journalism Died. RIP 2008)
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