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Pollster predicts race to wire (Gallup)
Boston Herald ^

Posted on 10/17/2008 9:40:35 PM PDT by Chet 99

Brush up on hanging chads! The scramble for the Oval Office is “tightening” to 2 percentage points, with recent presidential history of photo finishes poised to repeat itself, a noted pollster says.

Barring a serious slip-up or riveting news event, it appears that Barack Obama and John McCain will be up late on Nov. 4 while the votes are counted.

“The race is tightening,” said Frank Newport, editor of polling powerhouse Gallup. “That’s what makes it so fascinating.”

Newport told the Herald yesterday Obama is up by 2 percentage points when “traditional” voters are surveyed. Those voters, he says, “have a history of voting.” This loyal block - stocked with Republicans - is polling at 49-47 percent for Obama.

The wild card, he said, are younger and minority voters. If they get out and vote, Obama’s poll numbers leap to 51-45.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Newport, who added that a major gaffe, Wall Street turnaround or big event could still sway voters in the days to come.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.bostonherald.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; acorn; electionpresident; elections; mccain; obama; taxes
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1 posted on 10/17/2008 9:40:35 PM PDT by Chet 99
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To: Chet 99

Pass the tums. I’m going to be hitting refresh on FR a million times in the “LIVE ELECTION RESULTS” thread come November 4th,


2 posted on 10/17/2008 9:45:42 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Chet 99

Fingers crossed.


3 posted on 10/17/2008 9:47:12 PM PDT by Ciexyz
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To: Chet 99

This is somewhat good news, though.
We’ve been hearing this race is basically over, and Gallup sees it coming down to the wire.


4 posted on 10/17/2008 9:47:29 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Chet 99

Thie FIX is already in to steal the election
ACORN Posting Big Registration Numbers in San Diego http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108647/posts


5 posted on 10/17/2008 9:48:46 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: SandRat

Yes, this is what’s disheartening to me. Even if the polls tighten up, what are our chances in Ohio now? Not wringing my hands and all, just not sure how we’re going to get a fair vote there.


6 posted on 10/17/2008 9:50:38 PM PDT by willshaker (Hey Sarah, reach across the aisle and give John a good slap!)
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To: willshaker

OBAMA CAUGHT SAYING ACORN AND FRIENDS WILL SHAPE HIS PRESIDENTIAL AGENDA: Video http://roadsassy.com/2008/10/11/caught-on-tapeobama-promising-acorn-that-they-will-help-shape-his-policies-in-the-white-house/


7 posted on 10/17/2008 9:53:36 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: SandRat

But isn’t pretty much California in the tank for the Democrats? The real impact will be the swing states. Like Ohio. And we know what’s happening there.


8 posted on 10/17/2008 9:54:23 PM PDT by NEWwoman ("It's not the people who vote that count. It's the people who count the votes." (Josef Stalin))
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To: snarkytart

You’re braver than I. I think I’m going to hide for three days and see what happens after.


9 posted on 10/17/2008 9:54:49 PM PDT by Feline_AIDS (Because canine AIDS ain't funny.)
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To: willshaker

I worry about that too, but at least now, the microscope is on them.


10 posted on 10/17/2008 9:54:54 PM PDT by babydubya1981 (Homeschooling Moms for McCain/Palin 08)
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To: willshaker

That’s right.

McCain will need to win Ohio by +5-7 to ‘really’ win the state. After this election we will need massive election reforms. Too bad it won’t happen. What incentive will the dems have to fix an electoral process that assures their winning?

A revolution could be in our not-too-distant future...


11 posted on 10/17/2008 9:55:24 PM PDT by KoRn (Barack Obama Must Be Stopped!!!)
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To: willshaker

Challenge every apparent fraudulent vote...and fire eny election official in charge who allows vote fraud to be done in their office...


12 posted on 10/17/2008 9:57:18 PM PDT by billmor (For God,Country and Patriotism !)
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To: NEWwoman

That’s just a sample of ACORN’s evil.


13 posted on 10/17/2008 9:59:24 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: SandRat

California is hopelessly lost to democrats.
However even with ACORNs shenanigans, the numbers here arent too bad. San Diego county will still go to the Republican. Even Dole won here.
Duncan Hunter is from here afterall.

You swing state folks are the places to fight them hard.


14 posted on 10/17/2008 10:00:30 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares (Refusing to kneel before the polling gods and whimper.)
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To: Feline_AIDS

You won’t be able to hide from the election results this year..one way or the other.


15 posted on 10/17/2008 10:03:29 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: NEWwoman

Of course CA will go for Obama, but he is trying to maximize his popular vote totals nation wide so that he can win the popular vote no matter what.

If Obama win the pop. vote, and McCain wins the electoral, it will be very ugly.


16 posted on 10/17/2008 10:12:03 PM PDT by Retired Greyhound
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To: Chet 99

Of course the race will go down to the wire. Everyone is assuming Obama’s massive turnout operation having a major impact. Certainly the black vote will be increased, if nothing else. What we don’t know is whether the Bradley effect will cost Obama 1 point or 5 points. We also don’t know how much of an effect Palin will have on Republican turnout. Keep in mind, Kerry thought he’d win on turnout in 2004 and he did actually get 8 million more votes than Gore in 2000. The problem was that Bush turned out 11.5 million more votes than in 2000. Palin’s rallies seem to be stoking the base much like Bush did in 2004. McCain’s campaign claims to have made more phone contacts than were made at a similar point in 2004 by the vaunted Bush/Rove machine. The fact that McCain and the RNC have saved a wad of cash for the stretch run could also be a huge variable.


17 posted on 10/17/2008 10:14:53 PM PDT by zebrahead
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To: Chet 99
I know a lot of my fellow conservatives like to play negative, so they don't get their hopes dashed in the end; but remember one thing: McCain has won many more elections than Obama. McCain knows what to do in the homestretch, and if you know anything about sports or chess, you know the winners often have to win it in the endgame.
18 posted on 10/17/2008 10:16:37 PM PDT by Force of Truth (As to the bailout: Cui bono?: Follow the money.)
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To: Retired Greyhound

** If Obama win the pop. vote, and McCain wins the electoral, it will be very ugly. **

And I remember very well 2000!


19 posted on 10/17/2008 10:16:38 PM PDT by NEWwoman ("It's not the people who vote that count. It's the people who count the votes." (Josef Stalin))
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To: Chet 99

Sounds like the pollsters are showing some fear?? Wonder if it ain’t swinging harder than they want??

Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops


20 posted on 10/17/2008 10:16:56 PM PDT by bray (It's the Corruption Stupid)
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To: Ciexyz

Don’t cross your fingers.....pray.


21 posted on 10/17/2008 10:19:16 PM PDT by ladyvet (WOLVERINES!!!!!)
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To: Force of Truth

Maybe, but when has McCain ever been faced with an election like this one?

But I do agree that McCain must focus most now upon trying to win over a few % of the Independent voters in the middle, however much we might like him to chew up Obamessiah and spit him out..... the campaign needs to raise Obambi’s negatives fast, but McCain himself should probably stay mostly on positive themes about his own candidacy so as not to alienate that squishy middle right now in the closing days.


22 posted on 10/17/2008 10:19:44 PM PDT by Enchante (America: has Obama told you about his "New Party" that sought to spread SOCIALISM??)
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To: SandRat

We won’t win CA anyway; and it’s not a factor in anybody’s calculations for McCain. ACORN is wasting their resources in San Diego.


23 posted on 10/17/2008 10:20:53 PM PDT by Irene Adler (')
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To: KoRn

The Supreme Court will forever ensure the Democrats’ dominance. Nothing short of a severe swing in the number of conservatives in America or if not then the inevitable ensuing violent outcry of the people will stop it.


24 posted on 10/17/2008 10:25:29 PM PDT by Force of Truth (As to the bailout: Cui bono?: Follow the money.)
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To: Chet 99

Come on! The SCOTUS today gave Ohio 200,000 more votes. Now that they don’t have to prove they are a legal voter with an address, they can vote in another state and vote there too. This is probably going to go on widespread. The Fix is in, I’m afraid. Once Obama gets in the next election it will be register here and then vote immediately - they won’t have to have photo ID’s or a real address so really, anybody can, can’t they? Legal, illegal, different states, it really won’t matter.


25 posted on 10/17/2008 10:30:46 PM PDT by greccogirl ( gO)
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To: Chet 99

McCain and Palin win the state of CA and the state of NY! Now that would be a headline I’d love to see, our very own “Dewey Defeats Truman!”

Too bad it ain’t gonna happen, but wouldn’t it be great?


26 posted on 10/17/2008 10:30:46 PM PDT by Theresawithanh (I've got the fevah! McCain/Palin 2008!!!)
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To: Irene Adler

Why, don’t you know that ACORN in a non partisan group (as my liberal friend told me). They don’t care who you are voting for.


27 posted on 10/17/2008 10:32:44 PM PDT by greccogirl ( gO)
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To: Force of Truth

Yes. And the damage they will have to do will be massive.


28 posted on 10/17/2008 10:33:20 PM PDT by greccogirl ( gO)
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To: Chet 99
Pollster predicts race to wire (Gallup)

I think McCain should tell the crowds how disappointed Obama
voters will be not long after they vote for Obama.
e.g.,

"If you like the idea of disappointment, please do vote for
my colleague Senator Obama. Because if you think he's going to
enact all sorts of special benefits for you, but he can't because
he doesn't have enough tax revenues from "the rich"...you'll
be disappointed.

On the other hand, when he realizes he MUST raise taxes on
not only "the rich" in order to fund all his new entitlement
programs...well, even those in the middle class that voted for
Obama will be disappointed when he raises your taxes.

Finally, if you're dead, but voted for President Obama thanks
to the community organizing efforts of ACORN...you'll be disappointed
because you are still DEAD!!!"
29 posted on 10/17/2008 10:35:53 PM PDT by VOA
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To: zebrahead
Certainly the black vote will be increased, if nothing else.

And that number may not even be as high as predicted. You think it's easy for a brother to publicly announce he's voting against Obama?

30 posted on 10/17/2008 10:36:46 PM PDT by Force of Truth (As to the bailout: Cui bono?: Follow the money.)
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To: greccogirl
Come on! The SCOTUS today gave Ohio 200,000 more votes. Now that they don’t have to prove they are a legal voter with an address, they can vote in another state and vote there too. This is probably going to go on widespread. The Fix is in, I’m afraid. Once Obama gets in the next election it will be register here and then vote immediately - they won’t have to have photo ID’s or a real address so really, anybody can, can’t they? Legal, illegal, different states, it really won’t matter.

Well if that's the case, then I'm voting Republican at every precinct I can manage to get to in my state in one day. If they are going to do it then so will I. If they want chaos, then let them have chaos.

31 posted on 10/17/2008 10:42:03 PM PDT by Force of Truth (As to the bailout: Cui bono?: Follow the money.)
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To: greccogirl
Yes. And the damage they will have to do will be massive.

The innovative are usually the greatest lovers of freedom. And the innovators always have their means. ;)

32 posted on 10/17/2008 10:44:10 PM PDT by Force of Truth (As to the bailout: Cui bono?: Follow the money.)
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To: Force of Truth

You’re right on that one...things could get very weird if this goes off the rails.


33 posted on 10/17/2008 10:46:14 PM PDT by willshaker (Hey Sarah, reach across the aisle and give John a good slap!)
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To: VOA
I think McCain should tell the crowds how disappointed Obama voters will be not long after they vote for Obama.

The cheating he is involved with in this election will look like child's play compared to what will be necessary for his reelection.

34 posted on 10/17/2008 10:47:33 PM PDT by Force of Truth (As to the bailout: Cui bono?: Follow the money.)
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To: Retired Greyhound

Like Bush/Gore?


35 posted on 10/17/2008 10:50:09 PM PDT by worst-case scenario (Striving to reach the light)
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To: Force of Truth
The cheating he is involved with in this election will look like
child's play compared to what will be necessary for his reelection.


I pray you're right. And we won't see a repeat of 1996 in 2012.

If we do get stuck with a President Obama, I hope some
"PALIN 2012" bumper stickers appear in great profusion.

If the ObamaMessiah's followers haven't yet found something to
simply destroy her politically/personally yet...may the find out
in 2012, they simply toughened her up for a successful 2012 run
into The Oval Office.

I suspect the Obamites have given Palin a more rigourous "vetting"
than she'd have gotten joining the CIA/FBI/NSA.
36 posted on 10/17/2008 10:54:28 PM PDT by VOA
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To: Names Ash Housewares

So far AZ is not a swing State.


37 posted on 10/17/2008 11:16:37 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty, Honor, Country! What else needs said?)
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To: Chet 99
Sorry, barring an October surprise it's going to be four years of Marxist domination. God help us all.
38 posted on 10/17/2008 11:20:10 PM PDT by Private_Sector_Does_It_Better (The UN did such a great job with Oil for Food in Iraq, let's let them run the whole country)
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To: SandRat

“ACORN Posting Big Registration Numbers in San Diego”

So what. McCain will lose California anyway.....But perhaps the shows the big O is no secure with his “lead”.


39 posted on 10/17/2008 11:27:34 PM PDT by GeeMoney ("Stop Obama now, Fight McCain later.")
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To: willshaker

As an Ohioian, I’m still optomistic that McPalin will win this state. If anything, the ACORN issue might even fire up some people who weren’t even planning to vote.


40 posted on 10/17/2008 11:36:42 PM PDT by Comparative Advantage
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To: SandRat

Oh I know, McCain’s home state better not be! LOL

I was speaking to anyone who was in a swing state.


41 posted on 10/17/2008 11:53:42 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares (Refusing to kneel before the polling gods and whimper.)
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To: Chet 99

There already has been a major gaffe, by Barak Obama. About Joe the poor freaking plumber now getting beat up by rich bling bling 0 and his goons. The ‘racists’ in Murtha’s district probably don’t like seeing it, nor do Joe’s homies in OH.


42 posted on 10/18/2008 12:04:12 AM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: Chet 99

I have to get my fellow FRiends here credit because they predicted this weeks ago. FRiends said that the polls were suddenly going to tighten up so that when McCain wins they will say “Hey the polls tightened.” The only thing that was a bit off was the FRiends said that they would have waited until the last week to do this, but I guess the pollsters wanted to start even earlier. lol. We are so lucky to be among such smart FRiends!!!!


43 posted on 10/18/2008 1:53:08 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: SandRat

Thie FIX is already in to steal the election

The thing is the Democrats sued the Republicans for allegedly stealing the election in 2000. Are we strong enough to sue them in 2008 for allegedly stealing the election? The Supreme Court might decide the election again!!!! Yeah!!! My fear is the conservatives will not take action and just accept the results...of course upset about them but figure it was stolen but don’t want the American people to go through another 2000.


44 posted on 10/18/2008 1:56:39 AM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: Chet 99
Newport did not mention that the "expanded" likely voters in this election will also include those who wouldn't ordinarily vote except in the rare instance when there is a broad national concern that one of the tickets contains a nominee whose possible election to office is so frightening that it must be blocked. This sort of situation has occurred twice in the past 50 years: in the case of Goldwater in 1964, when the Democrats convinced large numbers of voters that Goldwater was too dangerous to be President and might use 'the bomb' (the famous 'daisy ad'); and in 1972, when McGovern was seen by the public, including centrist Democrats, as too radically leftwing to hold the office of the Presidency. Both LBJ and Nixon won in 1964 and 1972, respectively, by the largest pluralities that one of the major parties ever held over the other major party at the time each election took place. The same factor had been put in play by Adlai Stevenson on the eve of the 1956 Presidential election when he reminded the public that "a Republican victory tomorrow would mean that Richard M. Nixon would be President of this country within the next four years." This was a not-so-cryptic suggestion that, if elected, Ike, who had suffered a serious coronary in his first term, would die before his second term expired, and Nixon would succeed to the Presidency, a consequence that Stevenson seemed to think would chill the blood of the U.S. public as much as it would chill the blood of the murderers' row in the Kremlin. In this case, the threat of a Nixon Presidency fizzled and Dick & Ike sailed to a landslide victory. This time around, in 2008, the threat of an Obama Presidency is pitted against the threat of a Palin vice-presidency leading to a Palin Presidency. So far, judging by the polls, the former is not as threatening to the public as the latter, and if the gap begins to narrow, the question is: Which threat will bring out more of the "expanded" likely voters who respond to 'armageddon-type' threats. The only clue we have is that so many prominent Republicans (e.g., Christopher Buckley, Noonan, Brooks, Will) have 'felt the chill' and have openly defected from Republican ranks on the basis of the Palin candidacy, whereas no prominent centrist Democrats have openly defected from Democratic ranks on the basis the 'Obama threat.' Only careful analysis of the Nov. 4 electorate, based on asking the right questions, will give us the answer.
45 posted on 10/18/2008 1:57:55 AM PDT by I. M. Trenchant
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To: Force of Truth

When b.hussein and acorn steal the election, I truly believe enough Americans will begin to overturn the election using whatever force is neccessary. We will do the work that SCOTUS won’t do.


46 posted on 10/18/2008 2:33:31 AM PDT by newfreep ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." - P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: snarkytart

The operative phrase that makes this article bogus is ,if Minorities and young people stay in traditional Patterns, Ask yourself Do you really believe Minorities and young people are going to Vote this time in Usual Patterns ?
Dont kid yourself folks you are just setting yourself up for a Huge letdown . The Morons in this Country Elected Clinton TWICE. This guy has the same attraction to these Brain dead morons . Obama Is going to win all the states Kerry won and he is ahead in most of the states Bush won .
This is the end


47 posted on 10/18/2008 5:43:35 AM PDT by ballplayer
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To: Chet 99

We have a “wild card” of our own: the incredible crowds Sarah Pain is drawing.


48 posted on 10/18/2008 5:55:01 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: SandRat

Please. Let them ALL register in CA, NY, NJ, and any other blue state. Just keep them out of NV, CO, and VA, and we win this election.


49 posted on 10/18/2008 5:55:58 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: ballplayer

OK, Mr. Realist. There’s always hope. Light a candle in the darkness.


50 posted on 10/18/2008 5:56:30 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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