Skip to comments.Pollster predicts race to wire (Gallup)
Posted on 10/17/2008 9:40:35 PM PDT by Chet 99
Brush up on hanging chads! The scramble for the Oval Office is tightening to 2 percentage points, with recent presidential history of photo finishes poised to repeat itself, a noted pollster says.
Barring a serious slip-up or riveting news event, it appears that Barack Obama and John McCain will be up late on Nov. 4 while the votes are counted.
The race is tightening, said Frank Newport, editor of polling powerhouse Gallup. Thats what makes it so fascinating.
Newport told the Herald yesterday Obama is up by 2 percentage points when traditional voters are surveyed. Those voters, he says, have a history of voting. This loyal block - stocked with Republicans - is polling at 49-47 percent for Obama.
The wild card, he said, are younger and minority voters. If they get out and vote, Obamas poll numbers leap to 51-45.
I dont know whats going to happen, said Newport, who added that a major gaffe, Wall Street turnaround or big event could still sway voters in the days to come.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.bostonherald.com ...
Pass the tums. I’m going to be hitting refresh on FR a million times in the “LIVE ELECTION RESULTS” thread come November 4th,
This is somewhat good news, though.
We’ve been hearing this race is basically over, and Gallup sees it coming down to the wire.
Thie FIX is already in to steal the election
ACORN Posting Big Registration Numbers in San Diego http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108647/posts
Yes, this is what’s disheartening to me. Even if the polls tighten up, what are our chances in Ohio now? Not wringing my hands and all, just not sure how we’re going to get a fair vote there.
OBAMA CAUGHT SAYING ACORN AND FRIENDS WILL SHAPE HIS PRESIDENTIAL AGENDA: Video http://roadsassy.com/2008/10/11/caught-on-tapeobama-promising-acorn-that-they-will-help-shape-his-policies-in-the-white-house/
But isn’t pretty much California in the tank for the Democrats? The real impact will be the swing states. Like Ohio. And we know what’s happening there.
You’re braver than I. I think I’m going to hide for three days and see what happens after.
I worry about that too, but at least now, the microscope is on them.
McCain will need to win Ohio by +5-7 to ‘really’ win the state. After this election we will need massive election reforms. Too bad it won’t happen. What incentive will the dems have to fix an electoral process that assures their winning?
A revolution could be in our not-too-distant future...
Challenge every apparent fraudulent vote...and fire eny election official in charge who allows vote fraud to be done in their office...
That’s just a sample of ACORN’s evil.
California is hopelessly lost to democrats.
However even with ACORNs shenanigans, the numbers here arent too bad. San Diego county will still go to the Republican. Even Dole won here.
Duncan Hunter is from here afterall.
You swing state folks are the places to fight them hard.
You won’t be able to hide from the election results this year..one way or the other.
Of course CA will go for Obama, but he is trying to maximize his popular vote totals nation wide so that he can win the popular vote no matter what.
If Obama win the pop. vote, and McCain wins the electoral, it will be very ugly.
Of course the race will go down to the wire. Everyone is assuming Obama’s massive turnout operation having a major impact. Certainly the black vote will be increased, if nothing else. What we don’t know is whether the Bradley effect will cost Obama 1 point or 5 points. We also don’t know how much of an effect Palin will have on Republican turnout. Keep in mind, Kerry thought he’d win on turnout in 2004 and he did actually get 8 million more votes than Gore in 2000. The problem was that Bush turned out 11.5 million more votes than in 2000. Palin’s rallies seem to be stoking the base much like Bush did in 2004. McCain’s campaign claims to have made more phone contacts than were made at a similar point in 2004 by the vaunted Bush/Rove machine. The fact that McCain and the RNC have saved a wad of cash for the stretch run could also be a huge variable.
** If Obama win the pop. vote, and McCain wins the electoral, it will be very ugly. **
And I remember very well 2000!
Sounds like the pollsters are showing some fear?? Wonder if it ain’t swinging harder than they want??
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Don’t cross your fingers.....pray.
Maybe, but when has McCain ever been faced with an election like this one?
But I do agree that McCain must focus most now upon trying to win over a few % of the Independent voters in the middle, however much we might like him to chew up Obamessiah and spit him out..... the campaign needs to raise Obambi’s negatives fast, but McCain himself should probably stay mostly on positive themes about his own candidacy so as not to alienate that squishy middle right now in the closing days.
We won’t win CA anyway; and it’s not a factor in anybody’s calculations for McCain. ACORN is wasting their resources in San Diego.
The Supreme Court will forever ensure the Democrats’ dominance. Nothing short of a severe swing in the number of conservatives in America or if not then the inevitable ensuing violent outcry of the people will stop it.
Come on! The SCOTUS today gave Ohio 200,000 more votes. Now that they don’t have to prove they are a legal voter with an address, they can vote in another state and vote there too. This is probably going to go on widespread. The Fix is in, I’m afraid. Once Obama gets in the next election it will be register here and then vote immediately - they won’t have to have photo ID’s or a real address so really, anybody can, can’t they? Legal, illegal, different states, it really won’t matter.
McCain and Palin win the state of CA and the state of NY! Now that would be a headline I’d love to see, our very own “Dewey Defeats Truman!”
Too bad it ain’t gonna happen, but wouldn’t it be great?
Why, don’t you know that ACORN in a non partisan group (as my liberal friend told me). They don’t care who you are voting for.
Yes. And the damage they will have to do will be massive.
And that number may not even be as high as predicted. You think it's easy for a brother to publicly announce he's voting against Obama?
Well if that's the case, then I'm voting Republican at every precinct I can manage to get to in my state in one day. If they are going to do it then so will I. If they want chaos, then let them have chaos.
The innovative are usually the greatest lovers of freedom. And the innovators always have their means. ;)
You’re right on that one...things could get very weird if this goes off the rails.
The cheating he is involved with in this election will look like child's play compared to what will be necessary for his reelection.
So far AZ is not a swing State.
“ACORN Posting Big Registration Numbers in San Diego”
So what. McCain will lose California anyway.....But perhaps the shows the big O is no secure with his “lead”.
As an Ohioian, I’m still optomistic that McPalin will win this state. If anything, the ACORN issue might even fire up some people who weren’t even planning to vote.
Oh I know, McCain’s home state better not be! LOL
I was speaking to anyone who was in a swing state.
There already has been a major gaffe, by Barak Obama. About Joe the poor freaking plumber now getting beat up by rich bling bling 0 and his goons. The ‘racists’ in Murtha’s district probably don’t like seeing it, nor do Joe’s homies in OH.
I have to get my fellow FRiends here credit because they predicted this weeks ago. FRiends said that the polls were suddenly going to tighten up so that when McCain wins they will say “Hey the polls tightened.” The only thing that was a bit off was the FRiends said that they would have waited until the last week to do this, but I guess the pollsters wanted to start even earlier. lol. We are so lucky to be among such smart FRiends!!!!
Thie FIX is already in to steal the election
The thing is the Democrats sued the Republicans for allegedly stealing the election in 2000. Are we strong enough to sue them in 2008 for allegedly stealing the election? The Supreme Court might decide the election again!!!! Yeah!!! My fear is the conservatives will not take action and just accept the results...of course upset about them but figure it was stolen but don’t want the American people to go through another 2000.
When b.hussein and acorn steal the election, I truly believe enough Americans will begin to overturn the election using whatever force is neccessary. We will do the work that SCOTUS won’t do.
The operative phrase that makes this article bogus is ,if Minorities and young people stay in traditional Patterns, Ask yourself Do you really believe Minorities and young people are going to Vote this time in Usual Patterns ?
Dont kid yourself folks you are just setting yourself up for a Huge letdown . The Morons in this Country Elected Clinton TWICE. This guy has the same attraction to these Brain dead morons . Obama Is going to win all the states Kerry won and he is ahead in most of the states Bush won .
This is the end
We have a “wild card” of our own: the incredible crowds Sarah Pain is drawing.
Please. Let them ALL register in CA, NY, NJ, and any other blue state. Just keep them out of NV, CO, and VA, and we win this election.
OK, Mr. Realist. There’s always hope. Light a candle in the darkness.