Skip to comments.Pollster predicts race to wire (Gallup)
Posted on 10/17/2008 9:40:35 PM PDT by Chet 99
Brush up on hanging chads! The scramble for the Oval Office is tightening to 2 percentage points, with recent presidential history of photo finishes poised to repeat itself, a noted pollster says.
Barring a serious slip-up or riveting news event, it appears that Barack Obama and John McCain will be up late on Nov. 4 while the votes are counted.
The race is tightening, said Frank Newport, editor of polling powerhouse Gallup. Thats what makes it so fascinating.
Newport told the Herald yesterday Obama is up by 2 percentage points when traditional voters are surveyed. Those voters, he says, have a history of voting. This loyal block - stocked with Republicans - is polling at 49-47 percent for Obama.
The wild card, he said, are younger and minority voters. If they get out and vote, Obamas poll numbers leap to 51-45.
I dont know whats going to happen, said Newport, who added that a major gaffe, Wall Street turnaround or big event could still sway voters in the days to come.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.bostonherald.com ...
Pass the tums. I’m going to be hitting refresh on FR a million times in the “LIVE ELECTION RESULTS” thread come November 4th,
This is somewhat good news, though.
We’ve been hearing this race is basically over, and Gallup sees it coming down to the wire.
Thie FIX is already in to steal the election
ACORN Posting Big Registration Numbers in San Diego http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108647/posts
Yes, this is what’s disheartening to me. Even if the polls tighten up, what are our chances in Ohio now? Not wringing my hands and all, just not sure how we’re going to get a fair vote there.
OBAMA CAUGHT SAYING ACORN AND FRIENDS WILL SHAPE HIS PRESIDENTIAL AGENDA: Video http://roadsassy.com/2008/10/11/caught-on-tapeobama-promising-acorn-that-they-will-help-shape-his-policies-in-the-white-house/
But isn’t pretty much California in the tank for the Democrats? The real impact will be the swing states. Like Ohio. And we know what’s happening there.
You’re braver than I. I think I’m going to hide for three days and see what happens after.
I worry about that too, but at least now, the microscope is on them.
McCain will need to win Ohio by +5-7 to ‘really’ win the state. After this election we will need massive election reforms. Too bad it won’t happen. What incentive will the dems have to fix an electoral process that assures their winning?
A revolution could be in our not-too-distant future...
Challenge every apparent fraudulent vote...and fire eny election official in charge who allows vote fraud to be done in their office...
That’s just a sample of ACORN’s evil.
California is hopelessly lost to democrats.
However even with ACORNs shenanigans, the numbers here arent too bad. San Diego county will still go to the Republican. Even Dole won here.
Duncan Hunter is from here afterall.
You swing state folks are the places to fight them hard.
You won’t be able to hide from the election results this year..one way or the other.
Of course CA will go for Obama, but he is trying to maximize his popular vote totals nation wide so that he can win the popular vote no matter what.
If Obama win the pop. vote, and McCain wins the electoral, it will be very ugly.
Of course the race will go down to the wire. Everyone is assuming Obama’s massive turnout operation having a major impact. Certainly the black vote will be increased, if nothing else. What we don’t know is whether the Bradley effect will cost Obama 1 point or 5 points. We also don’t know how much of an effect Palin will have on Republican turnout. Keep in mind, Kerry thought he’d win on turnout in 2004 and he did actually get 8 million more votes than Gore in 2000. The problem was that Bush turned out 11.5 million more votes than in 2000. Palin’s rallies seem to be stoking the base much like Bush did in 2004. McCain’s campaign claims to have made more phone contacts than were made at a similar point in 2004 by the vaunted Bush/Rove machine. The fact that McCain and the RNC have saved a wad of cash for the stretch run could also be a huge variable.
** If Obama win the pop. vote, and McCain wins the electoral, it will be very ugly. **
And I remember very well 2000!
Sounds like the pollsters are showing some fear?? Wonder if it ain’t swinging harder than they want??
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops