Posted on 10/31/2008 6:47:34 AM PDT by icwhatudo
In Oct. 2006, a pollster called me and asked whether I approved of President Bush. I said, “No, he’s too liberal.” She asked whether I approved of Congress. I said, “No, it’s too liberal.”
We shouldn’t use polls, to predict elections. Instead, we should use election results of two or four years ago. Usually polls consider the views of 300-500 people, which is a small number. In Nov. 2004, about 122 million Americans voted. I live in Illinois, and I think that Obama will easily win this state because of the 2006 & ‘04 results. In the 2006 governor race, the liberals received about 60%, 49% for the Democrat + 11% for the Green Party candidate. In 2004, when Obama ran for the U.S. Senate, against Alan Keyes, Obama got 73%.
Not so fast, Tonto. They are using a party ID that has Dems at 41%, I think. That's at least two points too high. I'll have to check for the exact number later and I will correct this post if I'm wrong.
Fox poll yesterday has Obama at only 47 with a similar party ID. This is even worse for Obama.
Dammit, I was wrong. I hate it when that happens.
The party ID in Battleground is Dems 42%. Obama is in big trouble.
bmflr
Oct. 24-26 Gallup Poll, Carter led Reagan by 3 percentage points, 45% to 42%, among national registered voters.
and a published Gallup poll showing Carter up six among likely voters in a poll conducted Oct. 24 to 27.
Just Before Reagan Crushed Carter 50 - 41
polls are crap even more so in this election...
For the first time in a long time I am beginning to move from hopeful and praying to Cautiously Optimistic.
I have felt all along that Obama had to be over 50% across the board to truly have a shot at winning. NOw, almost all the polls (no matter what Dem % they use) are showing Obama slipping into the 47-49% range.
I fully believe that there is no way Obama wins if he is polling > 50%. Almost all undecideds will break for McCain.
Obama has not closed the deal, he has had 2 years and $600 Million and still has not completed the sale.
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