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NOV 1, 2004 Polling data Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231
Electorial Vote ^ | Nov. 1, 2004 | Electorial Vote

Posted on 11/01/2008 4:11:27 PM PDT by tallyhoe

There was another attack this morning and that took some time to deal with. Remember that if the site is unreachable, try the backup sites: www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com. I will also update the site tonight as the actual results come in.

Furthermore I will also do a post-mortem on the election in the coming days, so check back later in the week. My special interest is how well the pollsters did. To see the current predictions broken down by pollster, see the Pollsters page and the pages for the battleground states, many of which have separate graphs per pollster. Now let's start with the pre-mortem.

Another bumper crop of polls, 47 in all. Five states changed since yesterday. A University of New Hampshire poll breaks the tie there and gives Kerry a 1% edge in New Hampshire 49% to 48%. According to Zogby, Kerry is also edging ahead in New Mexico, 51% to 48%.

Now come some controversial polls. Yesterday we had Kerry ahead in Ohio on the strength of a Gallup poll showing him 7% ahead there. Today we have a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showing Kerry 3% ahead there Please don't send e-mail telling me what you think of Fox news. I'm pretty good at guessing, but I am trying very hard to be impartial. Tomorrow we'll know. Similarly, in Wisconsin a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Kerry's 7% lead has vanished overnight and been replaced by Bush's 3% lead. Again, PLEASE no e-mail about this. Instead, come back tomorrow for the post-mortem. If you don't buy these numbers, add 30 to Kerry and subtract 30 from Bush to get Kerry 292, Bush 231.

(Excerpt) Read more at electoral-vote.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004polls; 2008polls; mccain; noiinelectoral; obama; pollitics
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This polling Data and Map shows the polling data: It is only a snapshot folks
1 posted on 11/01/2008 4:11:29 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: tallyhoe

I can’t stand the guy that runs that site. One of those who claims to be libertarian but vote liberal Democrat.


2 posted on 11/01/2008 4:15:44 PM PDT by conservativefromGa
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To: tallyhoe

Ahh, yes ... Memories of the mighty Kerry juggernaut, and the pollsters in the bag for it ...


3 posted on 11/01/2008 4:17:29 PM PDT by JennysCool (Internet Powerhouse)
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To: All

I for one am just glad to see the President Kerry era coming to an end...


4 posted on 11/01/2008 4:17:54 PM PDT by Maverick68 (w)
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To: tallyhoe

Great post

Notice IA and the Margins in MN and WI. They had Ohio and Florida for Kerry. They had NM tied and CO barely for Bush (What were the finally numbers)


5 posted on 11/01/2008 4:19:07 PM PDT by wiseprince
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To: wiseprince

Notice Gallop had J Kerry up 7% in Ohio...hmm...


6 posted on 11/01/2008 4:21:43 PM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: tallyhoe

Like I said on a previous thread, the polls are biased left. They tend to overrepresent registered democrats and blacks disproportinate to their actual numbers, in order to give the pollster his/her desired results. The fact that the polls show Obama in the lead should not be a surprise to the informed conservative.


7 posted on 11/01/2008 4:21:57 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: tallyhoe

This is comforting, thanx FRiend.

I feel like I’ve been a real trooper and kept the faith and encouraged everyone, and balled out a few doomy gloomy types. This is one of those days however, I’m feeling faint. Part of me wants this over ASAP, part of me is afraid to get there, I might not like the answer to the question.

Somebody slap me please.


8 posted on 11/01/2008 4:22:40 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: tallyhoe

It’s good to look back and remember from whence we came.

I did NOT like John Kerry, and there was no doubt in my military mind from minute-one that I wouldn’t vote for him, but I sure don’t remember loathing & fearing him the way I do Obama.

Kerry would’ve been wimpy and mamby-pamby, as would’ve Al Gore, but neither of them would’ve done the amount of damage that Obama will do to our country.

And those wives of theirs! Good Gawd! Can you see EITHER of them as First Lady? (Theresa Heinz ‘Pass the Booze’ Kerry or Michelle ‘Lady MacBeth’ Obama?) I know that who the First Lady will be isn’t ‘supposed’ to matter, but I truly think it does.

VOTE, People! VOTE! :)


9 posted on 11/01/2008 4:23:13 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: tallyhoe

10 posted on 11/01/2008 4:24:07 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative (Drill Here. Drill Now. Pay Less.)
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To: tallyhoe; All

One more note, this was 1 day before the election


11 posted on 11/01/2008 4:24:25 PM PDT by wiseprince
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Wow, compared to those two, I’d probably liked Tipper.


12 posted on 11/01/2008 4:25:00 PM PDT by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: wequalswinner

“Somebody slap me please.”

*SLAP* LOL! :)

I feel the same way. I know in my heart that God is guiding us and our country, but there are days when even I (one of the most POSITIVE people on FR that you’ll ever meet) think He may be guiding us over a cliff...

Hang tough. Plan for the worst and pray for the best outcome.


13 posted on 11/01/2008 4:25:53 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: tallyhoe

Every time I see polling data from 2004, I have greater hope that things are going to end well for us Tuesday night.


14 posted on 11/01/2008 4:26:31 PM PDT by SaveTheChief (Chief Illiniwek (1926-2007))
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To: SaveTheChief

Yes I know!


15 posted on 11/01/2008 4:27:04 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: Norman Bates
Nov 1, 2004

Another bumper crop of polls, 47 in all. Five states changed since yesterday. A University of New Hampshire poll breaks the tie there and gives Kerry a 1% edge in New Hampshire 49% to 48%. According to Zogby, Kerry is also edging ahead in New Mexico, 51% to 48%.

Now come some controversial polls. Yesterday we had Kerry ahead in Ohio on the strength of a Gallup poll showing him 7% ahead there.

16 posted on 11/01/2008 4:28:29 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: wequalswinner

It is never over.

We are never finished.

This battle is for life.

Come what may, if I am the last standing or one of millions spitting on liberalisms grave one day.

I choose to fight them.

This battle, the next battle, forever.

Our charater is being tested.

Our willingness to fight, to win, to bounce back from their attacks or yes, sometimes our losses.

I will disappoint them everytime.

They cannot stop me.

Nothing is over election day for me.


17 posted on 11/01/2008 4:28:34 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares (Refusing to kneel before the polling gods and whimper. FIGHT!)
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To: tallyhoe

What’s an “electorial” vote?


18 posted on 11/01/2008 4:28:40 PM PDT by NonZeroSum
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Michelle Obama talks more like the First Lady of Venezuela than of the United States.


19 posted on 11/01/2008 4:29:16 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: Paleo Conservative

This is one of my all time favorite pictures. I hope she is on the same street corner November 5th.


20 posted on 11/01/2008 4:31:47 PM PDT by YdontUleaveLibs (Reason is out to lunch. How may I help you?)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Al Gore would have! Gore was a Socialist! However he did not have friend like William Ayers, Rev. Wright, Rezko, and RASHID KHALIDI.


21 posted on 11/01/2008 4:37:08 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: tallyhoe

..one can never have too many accurate polls—ROFL...


22 posted on 11/01/2008 4:39:20 PM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: tallyhoe

Speaking of biased polls, the guy who runs electionprojection.com, claims to be a conservative and a McCain supporter, and yet he’s predicting all doom and gloom for McCain on election night, even going so far as showing solid red states such as North Carolina and Indiana in Obama’s column, and he’s showing North Dakota and Montana dangerously close. Not only that, but he also claims that Republicans are going to lose many more seats in the House and Senate. My bet is that this guy is really a lib, trying to pass himself off as one of us. Here’s the link to his site. http://www.electionprojection.com/index.shtml

Anyone have any insights about this guy?


23 posted on 11/01/2008 4:39:31 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: tallyhoe

This site had a pretty accurate projection a month or so before the 2004 election, using a new formula. It showed Bush winning FL and OH, and winning by 4 points overall. He took it down because he thought it was “inaccurate”. Of course, it was very accurate.


24 posted on 11/01/2008 4:44:21 PM PDT by CPC24
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To: wequalswinner

“Wow, compared to those two, I’d probably liked Tipper.”

Yeah. She’s paid her dues, LOL!

What IS it with Liberal women and the DORKS they marry? And don’t even get me started on Mary Matlin married to James Carville! And she bore his children, LOL!


25 posted on 11/01/2008 4:44:39 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: tallyhoe

That’s what I’m saying.

Kerry and Gore would’ve been too chicken-livered to pull off some of the stuff Obama is planning...with a little help from his friends.


26 posted on 11/01/2008 4:46:45 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Both Kerry and Gore were pretty liberal, real close to socialism, Gore would have enacted the Kyoto treaty in his first year, however I don’t think it would have passed the senate. The Kyoto treaty is a business killer.


27 posted on 11/01/2008 5:00:41 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: newenglandredneck
Speaking of biased polls, the guy who runs electionprojection.com, claims to be a conservative and a McCain supporter, and yet he’s predicting all doom and gloom for McCain on election night, even going so far as showing solid red states such as North Carolina and Indiana in Obama’s column, and he’s showing North Dakota and Montana dangerously close. Not only that, but he also claims that Republicans are going to lose many more seats in the House and Senate. My bet is that this guy is really a lib, trying to pass himself off as one of us

I hate to break it to you, but simply predicting an Obama and Democratic victory does not make one a lib. It essentially a forgone conclusion that Republicans are going to lose House and Senate seats. Many people are also fairly certain that Obama is going to win. That in and of itself does not make one a liberal.

28 posted on 11/01/2008 5:12:24 PM PDT by scarface367
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To: JennysCool

Encouraging, but in terms of historical results, the states Bush won in 2004 are the high water mark. If Bush had lost Ohio, we would have had President Kerry. Losing Virginia would have brought about another 2000 election scenario.


29 posted on 11/01/2008 5:14:37 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: scarface367
I hate to break it to you, but simply predicting an Obama and Democratic victory does not make one a lib. It essentially a forgone conclusion that Republicans are going to lose House and Senate seats. Many people are also fairly certain that Obama is going to win. That in and of itself does not make one a liberal.

It does when one talks about 'foregone conclusions'!

Those people who are 'fairly certain' that Obama is going to win haven't looked at the internal numbers very hard.

Obama is losing something like 20% of his own base, McCain isn't.

Kerry held his base as well.

Obama has to put out a massive turnout, even surpassing Kerry's which was huge.

So far, nothing in the early voting has indicated any such large increase.

Obama did not even dominate his own Parties Primaries, being beaten often by Hillary and had to limp into the nomination.

As for the House and Senate, I think we have a good shot at picking up House seats and holding most of our Senate seats.

Now,if you have any information that runs counter to what I just said, let me know.

30 posted on 11/01/2008 5:26:30 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (O earth, earth, earth, hear the word of the Lord-(Jer.22:29))
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To: dr_who
Encouraging, but in terms of historical results, the states Bush won in 2004 are the high water mark. If Bush had lost Ohio, we would have had President Kerry. Losing Virginia would have brought about another 2000 election scenario.

In a head to head match up our base beat theirs.

So, all we have to do is get our base out and vote and we will win.

Kerry had a united Democrat base, Obama doesn't.

Obama was counting on a youth vote, which is very unlikely to appear.

Obama is facing the loss of crucial States like PA and NH.

Obama is facing a much harder road then Kerry did.

31 posted on 11/01/2008 5:28:49 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (O earth, earth, earth, hear the word of the Lord-(Jer.22:29))
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To: fortheDeclaration
Obama is facing the loss of crucial States like PA and NH.

Unfortunately that is pretty much wishful thinking.

32 posted on 11/01/2008 5:32:11 PM PDT by scarface367
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To: tallyhoe

Thanks for posting this.


33 posted on 11/01/2008 5:32:18 PM PDT by McGruff (Don't give up hope, stand up and fight, America is worth fighting for!)
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To: fortheDeclaration
It does when one talks about 'foregone conclusions'!

Except the site (electionprojection.com) is not saying it is a foregone conclusion. Rather they are posting the predicted outcome.

34 posted on 11/01/2008 5:34:28 PM PDT by scarface367
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To: Names Ash Housewares

I am with you all the way.


35 posted on 11/01/2008 5:35:32 PM PDT by Vinomori
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To: scarface367
[Obama is facing the loss of crucial States like PA and NH.]

Unfortunately that is pretty much wishful thinking.

Really?

Kerry took that State with 2%.

Obama is losing 20% of his own base.

NH is also considered a 'toss up' State.

So, I know that you are going to be disappointed, but both those States will likely go McCain.

You have any HARD data that suggests otherwise.

But, ofcourse, you are just being 'realistic'-yea right!

36 posted on 11/01/2008 5:36:54 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (O earth, earth, earth, hear the word of the Lord-(Jer.22:29))
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To: McGruff

Your welcome!


37 posted on 11/01/2008 5:38:57 PM PDT by tallyhoe
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To: fortheDeclaration

If Obama loses Pennsylvania, McCain has a good chance, agreed (although this election may end up with the blue and red states “trading paint”). But do you have any numbers to back up your claim that the Democrat base isn’t “united”?


38 posted on 11/01/2008 5:39:31 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: scarface367
Except the site (electionprojection.com) is not saying it is a foregone conclusion. Rather they are posting the predicted outcome.

It essentially a forgone conclusion that Republicans are going to lose House and Senate seats.

Those were the words that YOU used.

Now, do you have anything CONSTRUCTIVE to say about the election?

39 posted on 11/01/2008 5:40:01 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (O earth, earth, earth, hear the word of the Lord-(Jer.22:29))
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To: scarface367

The only reason Obama is predicted to win is because the polls themselves are biased. If this guy doesn’t realize that he is basing his assumptions on biased polls than he is still a tool of the left, regardless of what his personal beliefs may be. However, after reading his bio, it becomes clear that he does indeed know what he is doing, and therefore his motives are suspect to say the least.


40 posted on 11/01/2008 5:41:23 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: dr_who
If Obama loses Pennsylvania, McCain has a good chance, agreed (although this election may end up with the blue and red states “trading paint”). But do you have any numbers to back up your claim that the Democrat base isn’t “united”?

If Obama loses PA, he has to win VA, which is unlikely.

As for his own support, the Polls have stated very clearly that he is only getting 83% of his own Parties vote.

Obama needed to have a massive turnout to offset those loses.

Or he needed to keep the GOP turnout depressed, which was the goal of these phony polls.

With a fired up GOP turnout, matching or exceeding 2004, Obama is going to be swept away.

PA is in play because Obama cannot unite the base and many Democrats are not going to vote for him.

41 posted on 11/01/2008 5:44:10 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (O earth, earth, earth, hear the word of the Lord-(Jer.22:29))
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To: fortheDeclaration
Those were the words that YOU used.

Not when it came to an Obama win, but you would know that if you read what I said.

But as for losing House and Senate seats, yeah that basically is a foregone conclusion. We are going to lose CO, NM, and VA Senate seats at the very least. There is not a single seat we are likely to pick up. And things aren't looking much better on the House side.

42 posted on 11/01/2008 5:48:33 PM PDT by scarface367
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To: newenglandredneck

Well you can just go on and keep thinking that. We’ll see after Tuesday how “biased” the polls are, but I’m willing to bet that they will have been far more right than wrong.


43 posted on 11/01/2008 5:49:53 PM PDT by scarface367
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To: scarface367

Further more, there is no possible way that Obama is in the lead in North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Missouri, which is what his site claims. Do you honestly believe that a socialist like Obama will be able to win any of those states? And the guy also has solid red states such as North and South Dakota, and Montana dangerously close. Thats absurd, there’s no way McCain will will by anything less than 20 points in those most conservative of states. The only way to explain why the “blogging caesar” as he calls himself, has such nosense on his site, is because he wants to dissuade conservatives from going to the polls on election night, to make them think that an Obama presidency is inevitable. I see right through this guy, he’s no better than zogby.


44 posted on 11/01/2008 5:52:13 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: scarface367

Actually, there’s a strong possibility that we’ll win Mary Landrieu’s Senate seat in Louisiana. She’s currently up only by one point, with eleven percent still undecided.


45 posted on 11/01/2008 5:54:18 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: tallyhoe
Yesterday we had Kerry ahead in Ohio on the strength of a Gallup poll showing him 7% ahead there.

:-)

46 posted on 11/01/2008 5:55:57 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Obama wants to put the same crowd that ran Fannie Mae in charge of health care)
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To: fortheDeclaration
As for his own support, the Polls have stated very clearly that he is only getting 83% of his own Parties vote.

Sounds great, but did the 2004 polls claim that Kerry was getting 100% of the Democrat vote? I doubt it.
47 posted on 11/01/2008 6:01:13 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: newenglandredneck
She’s currently up only by one point, with eleven percent still undecided.

And what poll would that be? None I've seen have it anywhere near that close.

48 posted on 11/01/2008 6:04:38 PM PDT by scarface367
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To: fortheDeclaration

My hope is that a fired up GOP turnout will be enough to keep the Democrats from getting a 60 vote majority in the Senate. If they get that, you’re going to be cursing McCain next week. As for Pennsylvania, when is the last time a Republican presidential candidate won there? This is no time for euphoric predictions of an Obama loss.


49 posted on 11/01/2008 6:06:09 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: scarface367

It was posted on a thread here yesterday I believe. I’ll try and find it for you.


50 posted on 11/01/2008 6:07:33 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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