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NOV 1, 2004 Polling data Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231
Electorial Vote ^ | Nov. 1, 2004 | Electorial Vote

Posted on 11/01/2008 4:11:27 PM PDT by tallyhoe

There was another attack this morning and that took some time to deal with. Remember that if the site is unreachable, try the backup sites: www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com. I will also update the site tonight as the actual results come in.

Furthermore I will also do a post-mortem on the election in the coming days, so check back later in the week. My special interest is how well the pollsters did. To see the current predictions broken down by pollster, see the Pollsters page and the pages for the battleground states, many of which have separate graphs per pollster. Now let's start with the pre-mortem.

Another bumper crop of polls, 47 in all. Five states changed since yesterday. A University of New Hampshire poll breaks the tie there and gives Kerry a 1% edge in New Hampshire 49% to 48%. According to Zogby, Kerry is also edging ahead in New Mexico, 51% to 48%.

Now come some controversial polls. Yesterday we had Kerry ahead in Ohio on the strength of a Gallup poll showing him 7% ahead there. Today we have a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showing Kerry 3% ahead there Please don't send e-mail telling me what you think of Fox news. I'm pretty good at guessing, but I am trying very hard to be impartial. Tomorrow we'll know. Similarly, in Wisconsin a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Kerry's 7% lead has vanished overnight and been replaced by Bush's 3% lead. Again, PLEASE no e-mail about this. Instead, come back tomorrow for the post-mortem. If you don't buy these numbers, add 30 to Kerry and subtract 30 from Bush to get Kerry 292, Bush 231.

(Excerpt) Read more at electoral-vote.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004polls; 2008polls; mccain; noiinelectoral; obama; pollitics
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To: scarface367

I found an even better poll, one that shows Kennedy in the lead.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2055220/posts


51 posted on 11/01/2008 6:10:28 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: newenglandredneck
I don't think wins in those states would carry over to the 2012 election, but yes, it's possible. I hope that 2008 is the Democrat high water mark. Because this campaign is only a dress rehearsal for the Republican minority. If Republicans don't develop the mindset of a united opposition early next year, the Democrats are going to turn this country into something we won't recognise anymore. Remember: 1) vote and 2) preserve the Republican filibuster.
52 posted on 11/01/2008 6:12:20 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: newenglandredneck

Except that poll was done back in July. No recent poll shows anything like that.


53 posted on 11/01/2008 6:13:29 PM PDT by scarface367
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To: dr_who

Out of all those states, I think Virginia is really the only one we need to worry about for 2012. There’s been an influx of left minded voters from the D.C. area moving in there as of late, and it may unfortunately turn Virginia blue in the long run. I hope this doesn’t happen, but it looks like it might.


54 posted on 11/01/2008 6:16:27 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: scarface367

Here’s the poll I was originally refering to.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2121449/posts


55 posted on 11/01/2008 6:23:23 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: newenglandredneck

Well, then we have one poll showing that result and every other poll showing it far from close. I’m willing to say that assuming this poll was even done correct, it is an outlier.


56 posted on 11/01/2008 6:27:24 PM PDT by scarface367
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To: newenglandredneck

Yeah, I’ve been afraid that NC has been going the same way as Virginia, too. Maybe if NCer’s are lucky, we’re getting the people who are fleeing the DC corridor instead of orbiting it.


57 posted on 11/01/2008 6:28:13 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: dr_who

Hopefully that will happen. I live in Rhode Island, which is leftwing beyond redemption. And I’ve been considering moving to a threatened red state such as Virginia or North Carolina in order to help keep those states red. More conservatives who live in blue states should consider doing the same.


58 posted on 11/01/2008 6:31:28 PM PDT by newenglandredneck (Take back our Country. Deport the illegal aliens.)
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To: dr_who
My hope is that a fired up GOP turnout will be enough to keep the Democrats from getting a 60 vote majority in the Senate. If they get that, you’re going to be cursing McCain next week. As for Pennsylvania, when is the last time a Republican presidential candidate won there? This is no time for euphoric predictions of an Obama loss.

Yes, it is important that we keep the Democrats from getting a 60 vote veto proof majority.

Why would I curse McCain if they get it?

Why would that be his fault?

As for PA, the internals are very good since Obama is losing so much of his base.

Kerry only won that state by 2% and his wife was very well known there.

PA is very winnable considering the problem that Obama is having with Hillary voters, Reagan Democrats and Independents.

59 posted on 11/01/2008 9:51:42 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (O earth, earth, earth, hear the word of the Lord-(Jer.22:29))
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To: dr_who
Sounds great, but did the 2004 polls claim that Kerry was getting 100% of the Democrat vote? I doubt it.

Kerry kept his base intact, in the over 90% level.

So,when you actually get some facts, let me know.

60 posted on 11/01/2008 9:53:00 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (O earth, earth, earth, hear the word of the Lord-(Jer.22:29))
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To: scarface367
[Those were the words that YOU used.]

Not when it came to an Obama win, but you would know that if you read what I said.

And I didn't that say you did say that in regards to an Obama victory, and you would have known that if you had read what I wrote.

I addressed the issue of it being a 'foregone conclusion' in regards to losing House and Senate seats, using the words that YOU used.

But as for losing House and Senate seats, yeah that basically is a foregone conclusion. We are going to lose CO, NM, and VA Senate seats at the very least. There is not a single seat we are likely to pick up. And things aren't looking much better on the House side.

Well, now you just limiting yourself to the Senate, before you had put in the House as well.

It is likely we will win House seats.

It is likely we will lose some Senate seats.

Nothing is a 'foregone conclusion'

61 posted on 11/01/2008 9:57:51 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (O earth, earth, earth, hear the word of the Lord-(Jer.22:29))
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To: newenglandredneck

Man alive. I just can’t understand why, if Obama thinks we’re that stupid to believe that ND, MT, and AR are in play, then why doesn’t he stop over in KS on his way out to CO? Head fakes, head games that’s all this is right now. There ain’t no more convincing for him to do for a positive decision, since this election really is all about him. Not McCain. Everybody knows McCain. It’s all about Obama. But all these negative RW ad that those independent groups are running in the swing states, (they started the weekend with 8 million dollars!!!) will lose O some votes, I’m sure of it. Especially in VA.


62 posted on 11/02/2008 2:58:26 AM PST by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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To: wequalswinner

Meant AZ, not AR


63 posted on 11/02/2008 3:02:08 AM PST by SaintDismas (Starting to regret the handle I chose for this forum)
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