Skip to comments.NOV 1, 2004 Polling data Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 298 Bush 231
Posted on 11/01/2008 4:11:27 PM PDT by tallyhoe
There was another attack this morning and that took some time to deal with. Remember that if the site is unreachable, try the backup sites: www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com. I will also update the site tonight as the actual results come in.
Furthermore I will also do a post-mortem on the election in the coming days, so check back later in the week. My special interest is how well the pollsters did. To see the current predictions broken down by pollster, see the Pollsters page and the pages for the battleground states, many of which have separate graphs per pollster. Now let's start with the pre-mortem.
Another bumper crop of polls, 47 in all. Five states changed since yesterday. A University of New Hampshire poll breaks the tie there and gives Kerry a 1% edge in New Hampshire 49% to 48%. According to Zogby, Kerry is also edging ahead in New Mexico, 51% to 48%.
Now come some controversial polls. Yesterday we had Kerry ahead in Ohio on the strength of a Gallup poll showing him 7% ahead there. Today we have a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showing Kerry 3% ahead there Please don't send e-mail telling me what you think of Fox news. I'm pretty good at guessing, but I am trying very hard to be impartial. Tomorrow we'll know. Similarly, in Wisconsin a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Kerry's 7% lead has vanished overnight and been replaced by Bush's 3% lead. Again, PLEASE no e-mail about this. Instead, come back tomorrow for the post-mortem. If you don't buy these numbers, add 30 to Kerry and subtract 30 from Bush to get Kerry 292, Bush 231.
(Excerpt) Read more at electoral-vote.com ...
If Obama loses PA, he has to win VA, which is unlikely.
As for his own support, the Polls have stated very clearly that he is only getting 83% of his own Parties vote.
Obama needed to have a massive turnout to offset those loses.
Or he needed to keep the GOP turnout depressed, which was the goal of these phony polls.
With a fired up GOP turnout, matching or exceeding 2004, Obama is going to be swept away.
PA is in play because Obama cannot unite the base and many Democrats are not going to vote for him.
Not when it came to an Obama win, but you would know that if you read what I said.
But as for losing House and Senate seats, yeah that basically is a foregone conclusion. We are going to lose CO, NM, and VA Senate seats at the very least. There is not a single seat we are likely to pick up. And things aren't looking much better on the House side.
Well you can just go on and keep thinking that. We’ll see after Tuesday how “biased” the polls are, but I’m willing to bet that they will have been far more right than wrong.
Further more, there is no possible way that Obama is in the lead in North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Missouri, which is what his site claims. Do you honestly believe that a socialist like Obama will be able to win any of those states? And the guy also has solid red states such as North and South Dakota, and Montana dangerously close. Thats absurd, there’s no way McCain will will by anything less than 20 points in those most conservative of states. The only way to explain why the “blogging caesar” as he calls himself, has such nosense on his site, is because he wants to dissuade conservatives from going to the polls on election night, to make them think that an Obama presidency is inevitable. I see right through this guy, he’s no better than zogby.
Actually, there’s a strong possibility that we’ll win Mary Landrieu’s Senate seat in Louisiana. She’s currently up only by one point, with eleven percent still undecided.
And what poll would that be? None I've seen have it anywhere near that close.
My hope is that a fired up GOP turnout will be enough to keep the Democrats from getting a 60 vote majority in the Senate. If they get that, you’re going to be cursing McCain next week. As for Pennsylvania, when is the last time a Republican presidential candidate won there? This is no time for euphoric predictions of an Obama loss.
It was posted on a thread here yesterday I believe. I’ll try and find it for you.
I found an even better poll, one that shows Kennedy in the lead.
Except that poll was done back in July. No recent poll shows anything like that.
Out of all those states, I think Virginia is really the only one we need to worry about for 2012. There’s been an influx of left minded voters from the D.C. area moving in there as of late, and it may unfortunately turn Virginia blue in the long run. I hope this doesn’t happen, but it looks like it might.
Here’s the poll I was originally refering to.
Well, then we have one poll showing that result and every other poll showing it far from close. I’m willing to say that assuming this poll was even done correct, it is an outlier.
Yeah, I’ve been afraid that NC has been going the same way as Virginia, too. Maybe if NCer’s are lucky, we’re getting the people who are fleeing the DC corridor instead of orbiting it.
Hopefully that will happen. I live in Rhode Island, which is leftwing beyond redemption. And I’ve been considering moving to a threatened red state such as Virginia or North Carolina in order to help keep those states red. More conservatives who live in blue states should consider doing the same.
Yes, it is important that we keep the Democrats from getting a 60 vote veto proof majority.
Why would I curse McCain if they get it?
Why would that be his fault?
As for PA, the internals are very good since Obama is losing so much of his base.
Kerry only won that state by 2% and his wife was very well known there.
PA is very winnable considering the problem that Obama is having with Hillary voters, Reagan Democrats and Independents.
Kerry kept his base intact, in the over 90% level.
So,when you actually get some facts, let me know.