New Pew Poll: 052%, M46% [From 053%, M38% less than one week ago]

Pew ^

[Chet 99]

November 2, 2008

Obama Leads McCain 52% to 46% in Campaign's Final Days McCain Narrows Gap

Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.

[Mitt Romney]

Cavuto just said McCain leads among likely voters in this poll!! Anyone else hear that?

[edzo4]

everyone knows that Obama is the hip canidate, I do not believe these people are undecided I beleive they will break big to McCain they jut do not want to say they are for McCain, and that is not the bradley effect, if the bradley effect is also a factor some of those that say they are for obama are really not, I have read elsewhere (which may or may not be a rumor) that more than half, I think it was 80%, of the people contacted to be polled did not want to be polled that could also be skewing the numbers for obama because I believe that mccain supporters would be less likely to participate in a poll by the MSM, IMHO

[rwfromkansas]

yet Obama doesn’t lose any support?

What a wacky poll. Mccain gains but Obama stays the same.

[babydubya1981]

I did!

So what it is the 52-46, registered voters?

[Red Steel]

Obama will soon be joining Gore, Carter, Kerry for a quartet of losers.

[tatown]

PING

McCain cut Obama’s lead by 9-points within a week. McCain now down 6-points with a +10 dem party weighting.

[rwfromkansas]

Interesting the poll says mcCain leads by 1 for those planning to vote on election day, but Obama leads by quite a big for those who already have voted.

Could be some good news for us with this strong bias in the poll.

However, I hope this is wrong:

“Significantly, Obama matches McCain or holds a narrow advantage among key swing voter groups that have voted Republican, or been evenly divided, in recent presidential elections. Aside from Obama’s six-point edge among independents (45%-39%), he is nearly even with McCain among white non-Hispanic Catholics (47% McCain, 45% Obama), suburban voters (47%-43%), and white women (47%-44%). For detailed demographic tables see complete report PDF.

Notably, a much greater share of Obama supporters continue to say they are supporting him strongly, compared with McCain supporters. Among likely voters, 36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately. In most recent elections where there has been an imbalance in intensity of support, the candidate with the greater share of strong support has gone on to victory. “

The enthusiasm gap is a major problem if it truly is this big.

[word_warrior_bob]

Simply reverse those numbers and you will be pretty close to the final numbers on election day.

[Chet 99]

You’re reading too much into a poll that had 0bama up 15 points just a few days ago. They’re a joke.

[TNCMAXQ]

+10 Dems? I did not see that. Very interesting. Gives me hope this can still be won. Though it is discouraging to see just about every pundit and analyst (even Republicans) say 0bama will get well over 300 electoral votes. Fred Barnes and Bill Kristol are about the only exceptions.

[LottieDah]

“These little pissants at PEW never cease to amaze. Still trying to dissuade conservatives from voting,...”

That’s the strategy...dissuade conservatives and Republicans from voting by the constant hammering that Obama is a head. The mantra for the 2000 election was that there was no difference between Bush and Gore so don’t cast your vote for President, leave it blank...funny how when they did the recount they automatically assumed that a person who left out a vote for President was voting for Gore. GET OUT AND VOTE...NO WAY, NO HOW, NOBAMA!

[tatown]

I don’t know what true republicans are saying that but anyone who believes that is either lying or mis-informed.

[IndianPrincessOK]

“The enthusiasm gap is a major problem if it truly is this big.”

There is no way they can gadge the enthusiasm going on in every middle America suburb, peace keeping, conservative, God loving citizen...no way. The enthusiasm is more than high it is off the charts...and what is driving it is this radical, too far liberal Obama. That is and will get the Evangelicals out of the house in numbers no one has ever seen. It's gonna happen and we will win.

[RipSawyer]

Were you able to eat? I think one dinner like that would be more than I could stand.

[horse_doc]

Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately.

The piece that you are missing, is that these same people are incredibly motivated to vote for Sarah Palin.

[CSI007]

I hear this poll has McCain ahead by one with likely voters?

[Chet 99]

Among people voting on election day. Does not count early voters.

[WilliamReading]

They say McCain is up one point over Obama with voters who will vote on Tuesday. That McCain will lose with all votes counted.

I think their last week’s poll was bogus, and I think this one is fishy too. They are just trying to grab headlines.

[gusopol3]

they say it’s all momentum at the end.

[bray]

Nothing has changed other than the Rs they counted in the poll.

Pray for McCuda and Our Troops