Skip to comments.McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228 (Thanks to the PUMAs)
Posted on 11/03/2008 3:07:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.
(Table at link)
What a difference 48 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 3rd and see what has changed.
(Table at link)
What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.
RESPONSE TO READERS: Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions.
PS: I live in Prescott, Arizona and John McCain will be here tonight. Needless to say, I am going to the rally. I will tell him about how enthused you all are if I get the chance.
ping for later
Here's why, though, I think we will win...because of what has been happening on the ground.
I have to take it with a grain of salt. It would be pretty hypocritical to say that those predicting an Obama victory are crazy while those predicting a McCain victory are right on the money. That being said, this guy does seem to make a lot of sense. Then again, it just may be wishful thinking on my part.
Now, GET OUT TOMORROW AND VOTE MCCAIN/PALIN!!!!!
Remember how the MSM almost cost us the 2000 elections by calling Florida for Gore early, possibly causing some Bush voters to stay home?
Remember how they told us how bad things were in 2006, and convinced Americans to vote for change? How has that worked out?
Don't let them do it again. Vote!
From your post to God’s ears.
I pray you are right!! You are the expert. I am keeping the faith.
How to get thru tomorrow tho...oh my. Dare we watch?...or just wake up for the news on Wednesday??
I am emtionally drained.
What’s the deal with Iowa- Bush won it by 10,000 votes in 2004 and now O has a huge lead?
He's forgetting to also add in the Operatino Chaos effect. There were many Republicans that re-registered as Dems to take part in Op. Chaos, and some have not changed back yet. So, there might even be more 'defections' than the pollsters expect.
Okay, I’m ready. Lets vote and see. I think the MSM is in for a big shock. Is there an Official Prediction Thread on here anywhere? If not I would love for the mods to make one. It could be fun and at least would be encouraging to look at.
Hey, 310 to 228 in favor of McCain/Palin is exactly what I predicted on another thread here a few days ago..... I called it first! :^)
For what it's worth, I was shaking a pom-pom for McCain today at his rally in Moon Township PA (outside Pittsburgh at an airplane hangar.) It was magnificent to see his plane taxi up with his name 'John McCain' in big blue letters on the plane. Go John McCain!
This will be my last post until the election is called on Nov 4 or the next day. My prediction:
Obama 306 McCain 232 (Bush 2004 states minus: IA, NM, CO, VA, and OH, the latter being stolen due to MASSIVE voter fraud).
Given my previous track record from 2004, most Freepers should be happy with my prediction. Slam away, as I won't be responding until late tomorrow or Wednesday at the earliest.
Like we keep saying, it ain’t over until it’s over.
How do baseball commentators do it, keep talking things up while the game is just bumbling along, and suddenly the bases are loaded with a single and two intentional walks, to get at the weakest hitter. Against all expectations, a most improbably inside the park hit turns into a series of fumbles and bad throws by the team in the field, and the game busts wide open as the fourth run crosses the home plate.
Agree. I think BO is the weakest candidate since Dukakis. I can’t see him going over Kerry’s 48 3/4 % of the Pop vote.