Skip to comments.McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228 (Thanks to the PUMAs)
Posted on 11/03/2008 3:07:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.
(Table at link)
What a difference 48 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 3rd and see what has changed.
(Table at link)
What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.
RESPONSE TO READERS: Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions.
PS: I live in Prescott, Arizona and John McCain will be here tonight. Needless to say, I am going to the rally. I will tell him about how enthused you all are if I get the chance.
Me and ma’ boy will be out there voting tomorrow for M&P.
“I think you need to temper your dogma (*snicker*).”
That belongs with the cat litter too! :-)
I have been praying non stop. I am sure God hears my prayers. I will vote first thing in the morning, listen to Rush in the afternoon...then I will be here.
God bless you all!!!!
The article’s author, Paul N. Marston, makes this claim at his website:
“Your next question is why should anyone pay any attention to me about such a ridiculous prediction. The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy.”
Can anyone find another source to verify his perfect track record on election predictions? Thanks.
keep saying to ourselves..."if God is with us, who can be against us?"
I generally agree. I opinion is the if there is a state that whose candidates are running even now, the undecideds will break for McCain.
Lastly, the PUMA’s are going to be a factor in this election. They will act like a third party....but there votes will actually count towards McCain. What Hussein did earlier today flicking the bird at McCain will not only stir up bad memories of the PUMA’s but increase their numbers.
These idiotic polls are not factoring in PUMA effect. Similarly, they are not factoring the Obama/Bradely effect either.
I think it would be total poetic justice if McCain/Palin wins only because of the PUMA crossover votes.
It would put the left-wing nut cases back on their backs, spinning like “cluster-flies”, and it might bring the Democrat party back to realizing that left-wing wealth transfers do nothing but condemn the poor to being trapped in desperation, degradation, and destitution.
The poor deserve fishing poles, not fish. The Democrats need a swift kick in the arse, and maybe the PUMAS can do that, for we Republicans certainly haven’t been able to do much for them.
Time to toss the far left wing under the Bus. Go, PUMAS, save our republic, do your homework, and get rid of those in your party who do nothing but keep the poor helpless and downtrodden.
Did he know this about himself? =)
“In 1974, he decided to run for Secretary of State. He eventually lost the primary race by 7,700 votes statewide when he was outspent by his oppenent several times over.”
Can this guy be this brilliant??? If he bet his life on it and I can take it if he’s wrong then I will belive him 100% hahahahaha
I need a hug =(
I don’t know if puma’s are real or just psy ops.
I do KNOW Obama did not visit deep in FL, he just touched jacksonville. the NE tip.
In FL to say he was in FL.
IOW MSM spin fodder.
IF he needed FL or thought FL was still in play, he would have gone to central FL to tip the state, or to south FL to shore up the core.
No sizable minority group votes Republican. Those groups are much larger now than when this guy began his career. The impact could be tremendous.
Nonetheless, I will be out early to vote with my two daughters who are first time Presidential voters.
Three more for McCain - two from the under 25 crowd.
Heres several millions (minimum) of PUMAs, etc..(Democrats for McCain/Palin)
Hillary Clinton Supporters For John McCain:
Party Unity My A$$ PAC/People United Means Action PAC:
Democrats Against Obama/Nobama ever!
Just Say No Deal:
Take a look around these sites for a half hour or 45 minutes....(there are hundreds more linked to these, just look for links)
this is a VERY SHORT, PARTIAL LIST!!!!
but remember Cat...PUMA's are bigger than cats..........:)
What did Hussein do to McCain earlier today?
I love the sound of that......
folks.....some of you are preparing for defeat......but you know what....
YOU BETTER ALSO PREPARE FOR A WIN!
I agree. I plan to be here at FR with the FOX on. We should have a thread.
Hussein Flipped off McCain
I made a mistake and posted the same thing for Mr. Marston I calculated the PUMA’s or Dems switching need for each state. Mr. Marston lists the total numbers using RCP numbers that favor Obama.
Another things about early voting in SE FL in Broward County. The early voting locations are in more downtown locations or locations favoring “core” Obama voters.
They also have fewer early voting locations than last time. Many middle age and older white voters are not going to early vote at these locations especially with possible racial tensions. They, like myself, would much rather vote at their local precinct.
Tomarrow’s exit polls are going to be jacked by Libs running to the pollsters. Look for Drudge to be calling the landslide early. Wait for the results.
Pray for McCuda and Our Troops
“waking up means you will be able to sleep.”
Good point. I may have to take a couple of benadryls!!! :o)
Obama by +5% in the popular vote. I have no idea what the delegate count will be.
Sorry folks, the media still has much sway on the moderates.
What does PUMA stand for? I found a website, PUMA08, but still have no idea what the acronym means or what their point is.
Can we REALLY count on the PUMAs?
Sheesh, I’m getting depressed. :^(
This is a blockade runner report.
THIS IS THE LINK WHERE THE MSM will get the data for the early and absentee ballot data.
THIS IS THE LINK TO THE FL STATE ELECTIONS PAGE.
The reporters are going to spin this.
THIS IS WHERE WE CAN TRUMP THE MSM.
THIS is the page with the actual numbers
unfortunatly I have to go mobile and can not create a new post or crunch numbers.
IF ANYONE WANTS TO DO IT THEN PLEASE FEEL FREE TO HELP RUN THE MSM DATA BLOCKADE.
from the website” *According to the county early voting reports, 2,610,308 Floridians have voted early in Florida as of 5:00 a.m.Monday, November 3, 2008.”
so if anyone wants to start a thread please feel free.
We meet at dawn.
They also called the election in 2004 for Kerry in the afternoon based on exit polling. I remember being down in the dumps and having the dems look like fools by the end of the night!
My in-laws voted early. Typical Southern dems. Born dems and will die dems. They could not even comprehend Zell Miller during the last election. All they could do was shake their heads.
THEY VOTED MCCAIN!
I think there is a very silent segment of the population that will make a huge difference in this election. Far more voters see through Obama than anyone realizes.
I’m calling for McCain to win 286. If Pennsylvania slips through, we are close. I simply think that there is too much cheating going on there.
I agree. About the same numbers as I predicted.
McCain does not support the ethanol scam.
If you take what he claims at face value, pretty damned accurate. In this thread's article he speaks of his 45 year record. In this article from his web site, he claims 45 years and never a wrong call:
The answer is that in 45 years in politics, I have never been wrong about an election call even when I was called crazy.If true, that is awesome!
I am convinced that KR is guiding the McCain campaign, and already sees what is there to be seen: all the close states were within striking distance tonight on Fox......KR Knows about operation Chaos and the many PUMA's and other dems that are simply NOT going to voe for the bomb.......
I will not jinx us, but I will not be surprized if there is a landslide tomorrow......you decide in which direction....
What is your track record on elections?
I have trouble believing the polls, but I would like to know about your past performance. I ask this respectfully. PS tomorrow I vote in Maryland for Sarah Palin, she’s hot!
Of course the flip side is...
If this guy is so good, how come we don’t see him all over the TV? At least on Fox News.
Send YOUR message to the Enemy and the corrupt towel-head Congress in Washington
who forgot those murdered in the Atrocities and those importantly at Point.
One thing I disagree with him on is Iowa. If Iowa is off the table for McCain, then why was McCain and Palin campaigning there starting Friday? He mention Maine and that Sarah is up there now, a day after McCain was up in NH?
Another thing to consider:
1. Obama looks very tired and not very fired up in contrast to McCain. He’s been that way since last week.
2. McCain looked positively joyous during the speeches I saw him deliver yesterday, last night and today.
3. Hussein flipping off McCain. Would he do that if he was clinging to a lead?
4. McCain said on Fox that he was ecstatic on how the polls have been turning the last 24 hours.
Considering the above, is it possible that the internals of the campaigns are finally turning? Given the type of candidate that Hussein is, his support could easily and quickly collapse.
The announcement of his grandmothers passing (I hear she died on Sunday) could be a Hail Mary attempt to save the campaign.
Thoughts? What are you FReepers seeing in the body language and demeanor of the candidates over these last days?
Only the chosen, connected, class get to be on TV.
No one is calling me a prophet for saying in 1993 that Clinton should have started the War On Terror and by not acting, they’ll come back to the WTC.
I just didn’t say it on TV, I just said it to my political friends with a lot of 4 letter words in between.
GOD BLESS Mr. Marston and I totally agree with him and pray that he is correct!
Not true at all. I am a cat person, and several of my fellow Conservative friends are, as well.
I have to respectfully disagree, no blow out, but I could see a 286-252 McCain win, not much more than that!
Sorry for my ignorance, but may I ask, what is a ‘PUMA’?
4. Me and my wonderful Cousin ODINGA burn Christians alive in their very own Churches! We have found its a very positive factor in making Infidels agree with Our Agendas!
What works in KENYA , works in America!
I have a lynx-point Ragdoll and a seal point Snowshoe Siamese. :^) Both were rescue kitties.
Maybe this is one last attempt at Rovian psy-ops on Democrat voters.
PUMA: Party Unity My A$$
Sadly and with a heavy heart, here has been my analogy. Having owned race horses, here is how it is stacking up. The claimer, McCain, is parked four wide, six lengths behind the three year old phenom, Obama. They are at the top of the stretch and McCain is all in and he is not responding to the whip. Obama, is in full stride and the jockey is still having to hold him back.
Party Unity My A**
It sure makes my heart sing! I still believe more people are smarter than OB thinks.