Skip to comments.McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228 (Thanks to the PUMAs)
Posted on 11/03/2008 3:07:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.
(Table at link)
What a difference 48 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 3rd and see what has changed.
(Table at link)
What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.
RESPONSE TO READERS: Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions.
PS: I live in Prescott, Arizona and John McCain will be here tonight. Needless to say, I am going to the rally. I will tell him about how enthused you all are if I get the chance.
Heres several millions (minimum) of PUMAs, etc..(Democrats for McCain/Palin)
Hillary Clinton Supporters For John McCain:
Party Unity My A$$ PAC/People United Means Action PAC:
Democrats Against Obama/Nobama ever!
Just Say No Deal:
Take a look around these sites for a half hour or 45 minutes....(there are hundreds more linked to these, just look for links)
this is a VERY SHORT, PARTIAL LIST!!!!
but remember Cat...PUMA's are bigger than cats..........:)
What did Hussein do to McCain earlier today?
I love the sound of that......
folks.....some of you are preparing for defeat......but you know what....
YOU BETTER ALSO PREPARE FOR A WIN!
I agree. I plan to be here at FR with the FOX on. We should have a thread.
Hussein Flipped off McCain
I made a mistake and posted the same thing for Mr. Marston I calculated the PUMA’s or Dems switching need for each state. Mr. Marston lists the total numbers using RCP numbers that favor Obama.
Another things about early voting in SE FL in Broward County. The early voting locations are in more downtown locations or locations favoring “core” Obama voters.
They also have fewer early voting locations than last time. Many middle age and older white voters are not going to early vote at these locations especially with possible racial tensions. They, like myself, would much rather vote at their local precinct.
Tomarrow’s exit polls are going to be jacked by Libs running to the pollsters. Look for Drudge to be calling the landslide early. Wait for the results.
Pray for McCuda and Our Troops
“waking up means you will be able to sleep.”
Good point. I may have to take a couple of benadryls!!! :o)
Obama by +5% in the popular vote. I have no idea what the delegate count will be.
Sorry folks, the media still has much sway on the moderates.
What does PUMA stand for? I found a website, PUMA08, but still have no idea what the acronym means or what their point is.
Can we REALLY count on the PUMAs?
Sheesh, I’m getting depressed. :^(
This is a blockade runner report.
THIS IS THE LINK WHERE THE MSM will get the data for the early and absentee ballot data.
THIS IS THE LINK TO THE FL STATE ELECTIONS PAGE.
The reporters are going to spin this.
THIS IS WHERE WE CAN TRUMP THE MSM.
THIS is the page with the actual numbers
unfortunatly I have to go mobile and can not create a new post or crunch numbers.
IF ANYONE WANTS TO DO IT THEN PLEASE FEEL FREE TO HELP RUN THE MSM DATA BLOCKADE.
from the website” *According to the county early voting reports, 2,610,308 Floridians have voted early in Florida as of 5:00 a.m.Monday, November 3, 2008.”
so if anyone wants to start a thread please feel free.
We meet at dawn.
They also called the election in 2004 for Kerry in the afternoon based on exit polling. I remember being down in the dumps and having the dems look like fools by the end of the night!
My in-laws voted early. Typical Southern dems. Born dems and will die dems. They could not even comprehend Zell Miller during the last election. All they could do was shake their heads.
THEY VOTED MCCAIN!
I think there is a very silent segment of the population that will make a huge difference in this election. Far more voters see through Obama than anyone realizes.
I’m calling for McCain to win 286. If Pennsylvania slips through, we are close. I simply think that there is too much cheating going on there.
I agree. About the same numbers as I predicted.
McCain does not support the ethanol scam.