Election 2008: State of the Race (Final Electoral Vote by Rove)

http://rove.com/ ^ | Nove 3 2008 | K Rove

[Para-Ord.45]

The final Rove & Co. electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow, the largest electoral margin since 1996. All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain. The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain’s column since he’s benefited from recent movement in the state

[Para-Ord.45]

I`m forced to agree. Virtually impossible to carry almost every toss up State by McCain.

[swmopatriot]

It is important to point out that this does not reflect Rove’s analysis. He is simply assigning states based upon the poll averages.

If some of the polls which compose the averages are wrong, and there is very good reason to think they are, then these predictions are wrong.

[goldstategop]

Rove is an idiot. He's using the MSM polls to allocate EV... which are certainly way off. There's no way Obama is going to get 338 EV. Simple rule of thumb: any state Obama is up by 5 or less, he will lose simply because the actual vote is off by least 6 points. I thought Rove knew about this bias and he's not even correcting for it!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[trumandogz]

The Rove Map.

No way Obama wins Florida.

[neodad]

Well, he sure got it right in 06. /sarc

[Tench_Coxe]

You’re right. It’s time for all to give up and stay home. Surrender Dorothy.

[swmopatriot]

I forgot to add:

Either way, predictions don’t determine elections...votes do.

No matter what you hear, get out and vote tomorrow and make sure all the McCain supporters you know do too.

[Crimson Elephant]

It doesn’t take into account the party ID turnout number though. That IS accurate IF the Dem turnout is +8, if it ISN’T then we are looking at a rerun of 2004.

[WomBom]

Maybe we should just stay home and cry....NOT

NO WAY IN HELL that I will be deterred from voting tomorrow.

I suggest you do the same.

[screaminsunshine]

McClame will win Florida. Watch Pennsylvania..

[goodnesswins]

Tomorrow is CONSERVATIVE voting DAY! I predict a major charge by conservatives....because...it is the ACTUAL election day!!!

[xDGx]

Sorry, if he puts something like that up under his name something is afoot.

He may have helped engineer two victories against candidates who could best be described as ‘incompetent bumbling boobs’ (Gore & Lerch) but only by the slimmest of margins.

If this is posturing for future business in the political public affairs arena, then ‘the Architect’ has been poisoned by the Beltway miasma that makes people put their personal careers ahead of the good of the country.

[torchthemummy]

Rove bases this on a 14-day roling poll and apparently does nothing to factor in any of the multitude of reasons that the polls are skewed Democrat. Also no mention of the inaccuracy of the polls during and leading up to the 2004 election or this year’s primaries.

[Jazz1968]

So what.
I don’t think he is right and I don’t care if he is.
I don’t care if every so called expert on earth says BO will have 130 million votes and McCain will have just 10. I will be one of those ten dammit.
I will vote no matter what.

Rove is hated by the left so he is just pandering to them.

VOTE!!!!!!

[goldstategop]

Or OH. McCain will take them both. VA, CO, and NV and PA are all winnable. Some polls show Obama leading in them by 5 or less. Any state in which Obama is not up by double digits could go McCain.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[cookcounty]

It’s a 14-day map. It’s a joke.

[Tench_Coxe]

If I may add at the risk of the Admin Mods wrath...Rove is a political whore. There were a lot of people touting him as a 'magnificent b*stard' during Bush's campaigns, but he is a career 'advisor'. Probably one of the leaks that attempted to torpedo Palin (not to mention Toomey or McClintock).

We'll find out Wednesday. But my opinion, IMHO, is that there is a bunch of people on both sides playing the American public for rubes. Neither head of the ticket on either side is best for this country. But at least with a marginal conservative, there is a chance to prevent these United States from falling into discord (or at worst, prelude to something nasty akin to 1861).

[jpf]

“You’re right. It’s time for all to give up and stay home. Surrender Dorothy.”

Dear Auntie Em,

Hate you, hate Kansas, took the dog.

Dorthy

[goldstategop]

The party ID is at least five points too high. Perhaps six. I can tell Karl right now that he sucks wind by buying into that turnout assumption. Its a big IF.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Arizona Carolyn]

Not according to the experts.

I am so over Rove, he has been a debbie downer for months.