Posted on 11/04/2008 7:00:32 AM PST by Bell407Pilot
This is very interesting, considering the generally pro-Obama bump in most of the final polls. The final poll of Tarrance Battleground is 49-44, but when they allocate the undecideds, their prediction is... 50.2 percent Obama, 48.3 percent Obama, .9 percent Barr, .6 percent Nader.
I think the McCain folks would prefer that to most of the other projections. It would mean that my projection from last night overestimated Obama.
No, the popular vote difference is 1.9% (50.2 minus 48.3).
The raw differential is half of that: 0.95% - if 0.95% of the vote goes the other way, Obama and McCain are tied.
Given that the difference given by Battleground in the past has varied by as much as 0.45%, 0.86% is where the differential would be on average.
But we can use 0.95% if you prefer.
Great news! I love hearing this good feedback!
I hope the results in Dixville Notch, NH are not a bad sign....
As Dixville Notch Goes..? [Mark Steyn]
Gulp. They vote early, but thank God they don’t vote often. I’ve never paid much attention to the publicity stunt of Dixville Notch’s 100 per cent turnout at midnight, but for once it may portend something:
2000 Bush 21 Gore 5
2004 Bush 19 Kerry 7
2008 McCain 6 Obama 15
Bad omen perhaps, as they correctly voted in the past two elections.
Ugh, that’s a depressing graphic. Probably best not to post it too much. :) We’re trying to stay positive.
i heard Joy from the View just walked offstage before commercial break, upset something..anybody know?
Two point margin or less for Obama and McCain can win the states necessary to pull this out. If it’s a 5-point margin, forget it.
When you look at the blowout states, it’s true that Obama gets a larger raw vote majority from his big wins than McCain gets from his big wins.
But it’s about 3-4 million votes when you net out the medium southern states going for McCain (plus Texas) vs. NY/New England/California/Illinois. And Obama builds up a 200-100 advantage on electoral votes from those “blowout” states.
Which means that McCain has to win a bunch of close states. In order to win enough of those he has to cut into that 4 million vote advantage. If Obama’s up by 5 points nationwide, that’s over 6 million votes, which means Obama’s outperforming McCain in the close states and McCain simply can’t win enough of them, unless it’s the straightest of inside straights ever drawn.
If the overall race is more like 2%, that’s 2.5 million votes and that means McCain’s outperforming Obama in the close states (4 million less 2.5 million), and that’s what he needs to pull this out. Doesn’t guarantee it, but that’s what gives him a fighting chance.
So this is the poll we should hope is correct.
Given that they have inside connections to both parties, that they have a reputation of excellence to protect and a financial interst at stake (not household names like Gallup)- this is the only poll that I've been paying attention to all along. When it was down 6? yesterday, I was really disheartened. But these numbers are outstanding, and imo, an objective reason to be optimistic.
Well aren’t you the clever one. You got about 8 hours till the bomb falls on your head, and you start crying right there in your mom’s basement.
BattleGround is a good poll. I think it is impossible because so many people are not saying a word. Republicans, PUMAs are remaining silent.
Get everyone one you know to vote. Ignore the polls. We are going to win. People are frightened of the Marxist. Michelle opened her month today and she was spewing Rev. Wright-Lite crap.
Your screen name sounds like something an immature DUer would make up. Seriously.
I think it is impossible because so many people are not saying a word. Republicans, PUMAs are remaining silent.
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The UK Telegram had a recent article on where the US polls might be wrong, based on UK experience with upset victory of PM John Majors- At that time, no one would admit to pollsters that they were of the Conservative Party—so the polls predicted a huge Labor victory- but were all off.
When you consider the Bradely effect and this last poll, Hussein is in trouble.
Vote FReepers, Vote!!
great news about Ohio - north of Cincinnati - thanks
Oh they heard about bankrupting coal. Loud and clear
Another election day troll.
indeed...and in high numbers
“...I’m the idiot here....”
No you’re not, you’re just anxious like the rest of us.
I remember that. I'm thinking too that because the MSM has worked so hard to make Sarah Palin out to be a moron, probably a lot of people, especially women, don't want to admit they're voting for McCain/Palin. Also men may not want to admit they're voting for a ticket with a woman on it.
This is actually what my prediction has been for a while... but I believe McCain can win the electoral college with these numbers. 0bama has too many wasted votes in places like CA and NY.
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