2010 Senate Race Prospects (Recruit Early, Recruit Smart - With Names)!

Vanity | TitansAFC

[TitansAFC]

It looks as if the count will be 56-44 Democrats in the U.S. Senate in January, with Smith losing in OR and Lieberman now having to caucus with the GOP. Here is the pathway to chipping away at the seven seat we need to retake the Senate in 2010.

We need to recruit these names, recruit early, and recruit HARD:

1.) Colorado (Ken Salazar - D): Republican Former Governor Bill Owens, who didn't run in 2008 for the Senate, may run this time around, as might retired football quarterback, Republican John Elway, who hinted at a future run for office despite choosing not to run in 2008. The moment he wins the GOP nod, you can already start calling him "Senator Elway."

2.) California (Barbara Boxer - D): Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger should seek the seat, as he would be ineligible to run again in the Gubernatorial race due to term limits. He is the only hope of beating Boxer, and very well might.

3.) Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D): Former Governor Mike Huckabee, who was a 2008 presidential candidate, should be recruited very, very hard, since he remains a relatively well-liked figure.

4.) Illinois (Obama's old seat - TBD - D): The only man in Illinois who could win this seat has to talk his wife into letting him. Illinois demi-god Mike Ditka, a hardcore, Conservative Republican, would win this seat. We just have to convince Mike and Mrs. Ditka to run.

5.) Indiana (Evan Bayh - D): If Bayh retires, Mike Pence could win this seat. If Bayh does not retire, he is unbeatable in Indiana.

6.) Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D): May retire - will win re-election if he does not. In the event of a retirement, the GOP should push monstrously hard for popular Governor Linda Lingle to run for Senate.

7.) Nevada (Harry Reid - D): The Senate Majority Leader will seek a fifth term. In 2004, he was reelected with 61% of the vote. That year, Republicans did not put up a formidable challenger. Potential Republican candidates include former Governor Kenny Guinn, Representative Dean Heller, former Representative Jon Porter or 2004 candidate Richard Ziser. Guinn might be the strongest challenger to Reid but will be 74 in 2010, three years Reid's senior. Porter had been viewed as the most likely to run as he had been interested since 2004 and been planning a run, but following his defeat for re-election to his House seat in 2008, he may no longer run.

8.) North Dakota (Byron Dorgan - D): Three term Senator Byron Dorgan may retire. He will be 68 years old in 2010. Dorgan, who represents the conservative state of North Dakota, may be vulnerable if he runs for reelection. Potential Republican candidates are Governor John Hoeven, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, and his brother, State Senate Majority Leader Bob Stenehjem. All have very high approval ratings, including Dorgan. John Hoeven would win easily, and should be pushed HARD to run.

And how to win the Presidency in 2012:

Whoever wins the nod needs to nominate Florida Senator Mel Martinez for V.P. Popular, Latino, Swing State. You heard it here first.

[Norman Bates]

“IL- Who will replace [Zero] in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say.”

Mark Kirk and, yes, Mike Ditka (again) is being floated. This will be a major pickup opportunity for us when Zero’s star fades.

[yongin]

The One wants Blago to appoint another black in his Senate. It will be Jesse Jr. and Oberweis may run for the seat.

The Kos Kids are touting Heath Schuler to challenge Burr.

Janet Nappy may not run for the Senate. Nappy might be Attorney General or be appointed to the Federal bench.

With the RATS in absolute power, he is going to have a more visibile face. If the economy keeps tanking, Reid may be in trouble even from a 2nd tier challenger. Many of our guys lost to 2nd or even 3rd tier challengers.

[Norman Bates]

Elway has a major opportunity in ‘10 when Zero’s star fades. He ought to be groomed immediately so that he comes off as a serious candidate.

[Norman Bates]

Taking out that inveterate, America-hating ass H.Reid ought to be priority Number One in 2010.

[Norman Bates]

Chissy butt “Tingle” Matthews has said he is interested in Specter’s PA seat. That said, as mush as Spec is a RINO, since he is the best opportunity on keeping the seat I support his run for reelection.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I hate to do this analysis this early, but let me take a shot...

"AL- Richard Shelby can have another term if he wants it, but he may retire."

The talk is Shelby retires to run for the open Governorship in 2010. Gov. Riley might then decide to make a return to DC.

"AK- Lisa Murkowski won’t be seriuosly opposed. If Democrats couldn’t pick up seats this year, they won’t defeat her."

She has a bigger problem with a primary challenge. Alaska is like a reverse Dem state, they will elect a convicted felon Republican before ANY Democrat...

"AZ- John McCain will retire. Possible ‘Rats include Governor Janet Napolitano and Congressman Harry Mitchell. There are many possible Republicans."

Who knows ? Maybe McCain may stick around, but he showed vulnerability with his lackluster performance there and the state managed to go majority Democrat (5-3) with its House delegation for the first time in 44 years. Butch Nappy might have her eye on DC, indeed, and I'm not sure whom is the best candidate to run.

"AR- Blanche Lambert is favored, but secure. She underpolled against a second-tier opponent in 2004."

We were discussing Huckster as a challenger, but it would not come without a substantial downside, especially in that he choked the state GOP worse than a teenage boy with his unit. Only Boozman is a high-enough profile candidate, but he doesn't stand out much. We have no farm team in AR, so perhaps looking to someone in the private sector to run ?

"CA- A race between Boxer and The Terminator would be great political theater, to say the least. Of course, Arnold Schwarzenegger has serious credibility problems with conservatives. But even he’s preferable to the ultra-partisan, ultra-politically correct incumbent."

Ah-nold is one of the worst RINO Governors in the country who not only has zero credibility, but has moved on to about the temperature of outer space. CA remains a serious problem for any Republican running statewide. The place has lurched hard-left since the '90s.

"CO- Ken Salazar is favored, but not secure. Too soon to speculate on the field."

The guy who just lost on Tuesday deserves a shot, but he needs to start raising money -- now.

"CT- Chris Dodd has been damaged with publicity about the Countrywide scandal. How damaged is unclear at this time. RINO Governor Jodi Rell would have a good chance against anyone the ‘Rats run, if she can be persuaded to run."

Rell is an idiot and completely useless. On her watch, the CT GOP has flatlined to Massachusetts proportions. I seriously doubt she could dislodge her bowels, let alone Dodd. The Dems only keep her around because she serves their purposes.

"FL- What a mess. Mel Martinez barely won in 2004 and has low approval ratings. His Open Borders immigration policy doesn’t help. He may retire rather than face a tough race and perhaps a tough primary."

If he runs again as the general election nominee, he WILL lose. Though distasteful to some, I say run Jeb Bush.

"GA- Johnny Isakson thought about running for Governor, but passed. He’s probably safe."

Chambliss was supposed to be safe, too... He'd better consider looking out on his right flank.

"HA- Dan Inouye is likely to retire, when he’ll be 86. Governor Linda Lingle will run if he retires, and be a strong candidate. Possible ‘Rats include Congressman Neil Aboercrombie and retired General Eric Shinseki."

Inouye and Akaka will be carried out feet-first. Lingle may give it a shot, but it's very hard for GOP candidates there running for federal offices.

"ID- Mike Crapo is safe"

So it seems. Depends upon whether he likes serving in the minority.

"IL- Who will replace Barack Obama in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say."

Pressure is on Blago to appoint Je$$e Jack$on, Jr. Mike Ditka could try to make up for his mistake in not running in '04 and rescue the GOP. It would be nice.

"IN- Will Evan Bayh be seriously opposed? Governor Mitch Daniels is said to have Senate ambitions."

Daniels is more a DC person, anyhow. Let him try.

"IA- Charles Grassley can have another Senate term if he wants it. But does he want it? He’s getting up there in years. All bets are off until he decides."

I'd prefer he stayed put. IA's GOP farm team has shrunk dramatically, although if Steve King was guaranteed to win...

"KS- Sam Brownback will not seek another term. Kathleen Selebius is a possible candidate, and Republicans are hoping Congressman Jerry Moran runs. A key race."

Gilligan-Sebelius would be the strongest candidate to run in awhile, but '10 could be a bad year for Dems. Moran has hemmed and hawed over the years on what to do. They tried to get him to run for Governor in '02 when he could've stopped Katie and he didn't. He may decide to run for Governor in '10 and not the Senate, in which case that may leave Rep-elect Lynn Jenkins or Todd Tiahrt to have a go.

"KY- Republicans are hoping that the erratic Jim Bunning retires. Congressman Ben Chandler is a possible candidate for Democrats."

One seat I'm quite worried about it. If Bunning runs again, he'll likely lose. But I'm not sure which Republican could run the best race. I'd have liked Anne Northup, but her losing a 3rd race in a row isn't good for her. Perhaps one of the two statewide Republicans, Richie Farmer or Trey Greyson.

"LA- David Vitter may step down. A number of Republicans are looking at the race. Democrats are eyeing the race closely, but have no obvious choice yet."

Diapers to doughnuts, it may have to be Boustany as a replacement.

"ME- Olympia Snowe is safe."

Possibly, though I'd expect her House successor, current Gov. Baldacci to take a run.

"MD- Barbara Mikulski may retire. A number of Democrats will run if she does. Republicans are hoping that ex-Governor Robert Erlich makes a bid, but he may seek to regain his old office."

Ehrlich may be better off running for his old job. Sickening to realize in January we'll have only the ancient Roscoe Bartlett as the lone Republican from MD out of 10 federal members (although Andy Harris may come back in '10 and should). Mike Steele could try again, but that may be a masochistic exercise.

"MO- Will Chris Bond retire? He may. Possible Republicans include ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-Senator Jim Talent. Democrats have many potential candidates, but none stand out yet."

Bond may retire, indeed. I'm a little iffy on Talent, especially that he's 2 to 1 on losses for statewide office. Steelman may be better. I think the Dems may run one of the Carnahan progeny, either Russ the Congressman or sister Robin, the Sec of State. Aside from Bond, only Peter Kinder, the Lt Governor, will remain the only statewide Republican after January.

"NV- Harry Reid was almost as big a winner as Barack Obama. He engineered the defeat of the most mentioned potential rival (Jon Porter) and delivered a big margin for Obama. But his approval are not good."

He may have gotten Porter (whom I presume may try again against the moonbat Dina Titus), but there's still Dean Heller, and Heller has won statewide... three times.

"NH- Will Democrats try to unseat Judd Gregg? Only John Lynch could do it."

Gregg will now be the lone NH Republican and he has got a massive target painted on his back. He might even retire. Lynch would take the seat absent an ugly scene, although Hodes might try for it. I still can't believe we couldn't knock off Che Porter...

"NY- Chuck Schumer was damaged by his role in the Wall Street failures, but fatally so. The only Republican who would have a chance would be Rudy Giuliani. But if Giuliani runs for anything, it will be Govenror."

Have Pataki run (har, har). Schumer could rape a nun on live tv and they'd reelect him. He's despicable. Rudy won't run against him, he's probably going to take on the blind moonbat in Albany.

"NC- Defeating Elizebeth Dole has emboldened NC Democrats. Richard Burr will be seriously challenged, though his opponent is unclear."

Burr is in the cursed seat, as no member has been reelected to it since 1968. Of course, Dole just cursed the Helms seat with her shocking incompetence. Burr has also not particularly distinguished himself, either. The Dems put up a second tier nobody and won, so Burr may have a real problem facing a Congressmember (or Mike Easley).

"ND- Byron Dorgan is expected to retire. A race between John Hoeven and Earl Pomeroy is what’s currently extected."

Dorgan retire ? I'd be amazed. Pomeroy has never racked up large margins. Hoeven should be able to beat him, presuming he decides to run. He may not.

"OH- Will George Voinovich run? He irks conservatives, but Republicans in Ohio are in bad shape right now."

I think he needs to go and be replaced by younger blood. It'd be nice if we could get Ken Blackwell (who also has a seat in Cincy he could run for with Steve Chabot's unfortunate loss, which he previously ran for and narrowly lost in 1990). The Dems may run one of their newbie statewide officers.

"OK-Tom Coburn is secure."

I actually expect Coburn may retire after a single term. He showed poor judgment on the bailout and I think he truly hates being in DC. In which case, I'd like to see Mary Fallin, who has won statewide on her own take a shot. The Boren kid may take a run for the rodents, although Brad Henry may, too.

"OR- Ron Wyden is secure."

Embarrassing. Gordon Smith, now free from DC, ought to go back to Salem where he served as State Senate President in the '90s and run for Governor. A new GOP Governor hasn't been elected there since 1978 and Kulongoski is term-limited in 2010.

"PA- Arlen Sepcter says he’ll run yet again, but most are not convinced that he’ll stick it out. A key race, but who will run is unclear in both parties."

Presuming he doesn't die between now and then. I think Rendell may run for it, but the GOP has a lack of strong candidates (unless Tom Ridge or Mark Schweiker want to make a comeback). I expect Attorney-General Tom Corbett, our only other statewide Republican, who just got reelected on Tuesday, to run for Governor (of course, part of me would like to see Lou Barletta run for it, who is better suited to an executive position).

"SC- Jim DeMint is probably secure."

Yup. The big question is who will run for Governor in 2010. Some expect Ambassador to Canada David Wilkins to make a go. Lt Gov. Andre Bauer would be toxic for the GOP as his auto antics almost cost us his seat.

"SD- John Thune is probably secure."

Not if Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin challenges him. She's more popular than he is, and he, like Dick Burr in NC, hasn't particularly distinguished himself.

"UT- Robert Bennett may retire. Until he decides, all bets are off."

Bennett's dad, who was also a Senator, lived well into his 90s, so he may stick around. If he does step down, I'd like to see Rep-elect Jason Chaffetz have a go. The Dems don't have much of a shot, but Rep. Jim Matheson may try. The Dems last won a Senate seat in UT in 1970.

"VT- Pat Leahy is secure (ugh)."

Of course, Gov. Jim Douglas might make him sweat a little if he boldly tried to take him on.

"WA- Patty Murray is a lightweight and even her fellow liberals privately admit it. She could face a serious opponent, but it’s not a given. Would Dino Rossi consider it or is he burned out on campaigning?"

Rossi got screwed twice. If he wants to try, he's about our highest-profile Republican in the state. The other statewide Republicans have ranged from unimpressive to outright backstabbing RINO weasels.

"WI- Herb Kohl is secure if he runs again."

He's not up until 2012. It's Russ Feingold that is up in 2010. I thought Paul Ryan could challenge him. Gotta take out Diamond Jim Doyle, too.

Let me add, too, that if the incoming regime plucks some Senators, there may be some more special elections in 2010. There may also be some deaths, too. The Hawaiian twins are both 84 (85 early next year). Robert Byrd is nearly 91. The corpse in NJ is 85 in January. Tim Johnson in SD with his precarious health is another. That doesn't even take into consideration 20 of ours sitting in states with (whom after January will have) Dem Governors (AZ, who although instructed by law to appoint an "R" could appoint a Democrat phony; IA; KS; KY; ME; MO; NH; NC; OH; OK; PA; TN & WY -- although the latter worked out fine for us).

[fieldmarshaldj]

Post #56. Please, I hope the IL GOP is not stupid enough to allow Oberdouche anywhere near an office again. He lost a heavily Republican House district twice to a nobody, last Tuesday in a landslide.

I might remind you that even if the False Messiah becomes as unpopular as Bubba in ‘94, we STILL knocked off only 2 sitting Dem incumbents in the Senate that year. We usually only make our gains through their retirements while they pluck ours off at will (absent retirements in ‘94, we may have failed to capture that body).

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I might remind you that even if the False Messiah becomes as unpopular as Bubba in ‘94, we STILL knocked off only 2 sitting Dem incumbents in the Senate that year. We usually only make our gains through their retirements while they pluck ours off at will (absent retirements in ‘94, we may have failed to capture that body).

I think we might have knocked off Meztenbaum, Riegle, and Deconcini. The later two were damaged by the Keating Five, and Meztenbaum had low approval ratings by 1994 (His son-in-law wasn't helped by his familial relation to the senator). But Mitchell's seat wouldn't have budged with him running again.

If Vitter steps down, our SecState Jay Dardenne could run for the seat. He probably should have run against Landrieu instead of Kennedy.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I think we might have knocked off Meztenbaum, Riegle, and Deconcini. The later two were damaged by the Keating Five, and Meztenbaum had low approval ratings by 1994 (His son-in-law wasn't helped by his familial relation to the senator)."

Possibly so, but not necessarily a guarantee. They all might've pulled off close reelections, all of which would've only moved us up to the mid to high 40s. I still can't believe OH Democrats were stupid enough to run Joel Hyatt, a little snot-nose with no election experience. Although perhaps not the best choice, ex-Gov. Dick Celeste might've made it a closer race. Ditto Bruce Babbitt in AZ to replace DeConcini, although with his ties to the Clinton cabinet, that probably would've doomed him.

"But Mitchell's seat wouldn't have budged with him running again."

Quite so, ditto that of OK's David Boren, who stepped down before his term expired.

"If Vitter steps down, our SecState Jay Dardenne could run for the seat. He probably should have run against Landrieu instead of Kennedy."

I'm more than a little pissed at the undermining of Kennedy. Here the party took the time to get this guy to switch parties and cultivate him to run, and then they yank the rug out from under him and all these RINO piggies feeding at the trough go running to Sen. Brownroots to cover her. Her election in the first place was a fraud and it should've been at the top of the party agenda to bounce her ass back to New Orleans. I swear it's almost as if this party REALLY doesn't even want to win office. I really think the biggest enemy of the Republican party isn't the media, isn't the Democrats, it's the Republican party itself.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I'm more than a little pissed at the undermining of Kennedy. Here the party took the time to get this guy to switch parties and cultivate him to run, and then they yank the rug out from under him and all these RINO piggies feeding at the trough go running to Sen. Brownroots to cover her. Her election in the first place was a fraud and it should've been at the top of the party agenda to bounce her ass back to New Orleans. I swear it's almost as if this party REALLY doesn't even want to win office. I really think the biggest enemy of the Republican party isn't the media, isn't the Democrats, it's the Republican party itself.

Yeah, the RINO-endorsements of Landrieu were particularly horrible this time, from the Jeff Parish sheriff to the parish president of St. Tammany. Kennedy himself wasn't the perfect candidate, unfortunately his 04 run as a Dem did come back to haunt him when Mary painted him as "confused." I'm afraid Kennedy holding Mary to 52%-46% was actually well ahead of what he might have done, he wasn't close in most polls, but he was riding the McCain wave and probably picked up a lot of votes. But that just points up a lot of missed opportunties, they could have focused heavily in north LA, which was sure to (and did) reject the chosen one overwhelmingly, and pick up a big margin up there to overcome N.O. and the pork-lovers down here. (As it was, Kennedy did win the Alexandria area, which Landrieu won last time if I remember right) I think Kennedy just didn't have a powerful enough message other than, "I'm the conservative, she's the big-spending liberal."

But hey, we still gave it a go down here (plus we got the Baker seat back!). Unlike say, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and Iowa, where the GOP just conceded them all. Meanwhile, the Dems are winning states like Oregon and North Carolina with virtual nobodies...

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Yeah, the RINO-endorsements of Landrieu were particularly horrible this time, from the Jeff Parish sheriff to the parish president of St. Tammany. Kennedy himself wasn't the perfect candidate, unfortunately his 04 run as a Dem did come back to haunt him when Mary painted him as "confused."

A rather ludicrous charge given that quite a number of current GOP officials/candidates, et al, were running as Dems in recent years when running as a Republican was an impossible task in the state.

"I'm afraid Kennedy holding Mary to 52%-46% was actually well ahead of what he might have done, he wasn't close in most polls, but he was riding the McCain wave and probably picked up a lot of votes."

At first, I thought Zimmer in NJ would go higher, but he ended up at about 43%.

"(As it was, Kennedy did win the Alexandria area, which Landrieu won last time if I remember right)"

If you're referring exclusively to Rapides Parish, Landrieu has never carried it in her 3 runs (47% in '96; 46% in '02; 45% last Tuesday). These were the maps for the races (remember I don't use the newsspeak, Red is Democrat here):

1996.

2002.

2008.

"I think Kennedy just didn't have a powerful enough message other than, "I'm the conservative, she's the big-spending liberal."

Of course, if the rodents can win on the vacuous and meaningless mantra of "change", that is a helluva lot more specific and substantive...

"But hey, we still gave it a go down here (plus we got the Baker seat back!)."

Presuming it's not swapped for the McCrery seat... And why can't we sack Melonball ? Why did Tauzin try that boneheaded deal of trying to install his unqualified kid ? Ugh.

"Unlike say, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and Iowa, where the GOP just conceded them all. Meanwhile, the Dems are winning states like Oregon and North Carolina with virtual nobodies..."

I'd have put the guy in charge of Senate recruitment this cycle in front of a firing squad for dereliction of duty. What a f*cking embarrassment.

[JohnnyZ]

AK - Little Lisa won't get a strong primary challenge. She's done a lot of fence-mending, and the GOP has enough work to do replacing Stevens and maybe Young.

KY - I would really like Geoff Lucas to run. Richie Farmer ran on his sports 'career'. Maybe Grayson, but he should stay in state govt for now.

ME - Snowe is safe. Collins just destroyed Allen in a Democrat year by calling him a party line liberal (which he is). Baldacci's popularity really suffered during his governorship.

GA - Isakson will stay put.

NC - Burr will be fine. Saved by the Democrat majority.

OK - I could see Tom Cole running.

Republicans got in extra hot water after taking control of the Senate and controlling the trifecta. If you're in the majority and not planning on accomplishing anything useful, it's often better just to have divided govt so you're not stuck with the blame for your incompetence, and Republicans have been paying for it for two elections now, until the shoe is firmly on the other foot. I'm not sure how many gains Republicans will make in 2010, but losses will be scarce.

[JohnnyZ]

KY - I would really like Geoff DAVIS to run (those Davis-Lucas races confuzzled me!) Richie Farmer ran on his sports 'career'. Maybe Grayson, but he should stay in state govt for now.

[Norman Bates]

Dodd is not running for re-election. Hoeven seems to relish his spot as the longest serving governor. It will get even longer. But we need to take back these senate seats in “blue” states.

How many former governors do we have out there than can run for some of these seats? You mentioned J.Bush, Pataki, and Ehrlich (I agree Ehrlich needs to unseat O’Malley). Owens, Huckabee. There are many.

If Zero’s star fades our opportunity in 2010 will be vast. The possibility of taking out a Schumer, or taking back Zero’s seat, cannot be passed up. We need to groom Ditka and Elway as well.

[Impy]

“As it is, the Republicans are almost exclusively confined to the Little Rock area (4 counties in a line from east to west, from Garland’s Hot Springs through to Lonoke) and the NW corner and Ozarks along the MO and OK border. It’s almost impossible to find any elected Republicans outside those two areas (there were a few that made some breakthroughs, but the numbers shrunk down to just 25% of the House after hitting the 30% mark in 2000).”

Wow Pathetic, thanks HUcK.

It’s time for this to change. In Arkansas and West Virginia.

[Impy]

LOL I was gonna start a thread like this myself.....

I don’t think Joe Liberalman will indeed support the GOP.

+7 or 8 won’t happen even with a 94 type landslide. Can’t even guarantee a net gain in the senate. This next cycle is not target rich like the ‘12 and ‘14 ones will be, GOP holds the majority of them already. Opens rat seats are paramount since we suck at beating incumbents (this needs to change).

My early take

ALABAMA-Safe open or not

ALASKA-Safe, we love you Alaska, no rats EVER! I get the idea Lisa is trying to buddy up to Palin. If Stevens and Young can’t lose a primary she won’t.

ARIZONA-

Unless she lands a cabinet post I expect the Popular!?! Lesbian Governor to run. Of course as we know popular GOP Governors never seem to run....if not her, maybe AG Goddard although I expect him to run fro Governor as rat AGs always do.

I think McPain will call it quits but if not....still a tossup with janet imo, he’s wearing out his welcome, underperformed in AZ against Obama. The other rats probably wouldn’t risk their current jobs to battle McCain.

Flake and Shadegg (maybe house leadership would be better for him) are top choices. I know little about the statewide officeholding Republicans.

I call midterm hold if Janet doesn’t run.

ARKANSAS

Lincoln likely can’t lose unless she gets some hard left stink on her from Reid/Obama.

I HATE Huckabee, I’d support him for this office though but he is NOT gonna run.

A respectable showing, win or not would be nice. No BYE like Pryor got.

California

I hate Arnold “Tax hikes don’t make you socialist” Swatrezcantspellit

Smooth talker, liberal record.

For a legislative seat I’d back him and I give him a shot against Boxer. Otherwise the seat is SAFE D. Does he even really want the job?

Colorado

Rat trends and fraud give Salazar a good-sized edge.

Bill Owens? Retread? Highly unlikely anyway.

Schaffer, I really like the guy.

Titans mentions JOHN ELWAY, sounds like a dream but that would be a fantastic recruitment. We see know the power of celebrity.

Connecticut

GOP base voted Lieber rather and the party could find a real candidate for a winnable 3-way race.

RINO Rell could win (not certain imo) no other Repub is likely to.

Florida

I didn’t know Martinez was in such bad shape.

Tossup/free for all if open. Jeb Would win, but would be run?

Castor in second bid/Alex Sink/Wexler possible rats.

How about veteran state office holder Charlie Bronson for a Jeb-less open seat?

Georgia-

I don’t recall what Chambliss screwed up. I think Isakson is safe. One of the black rats in state office could possibly make a go at it though. John Oxendine is likely the next Governor.

Hawaii

I think the rat will die office and not retire.

Lingle has a shot at an open seat.

Idaho-

Safe as long as Sali isn’t the nominee for some reason :/

Illinois

The Jackson name is fairly toxic, so it’s him or we get Ditka we have a shot, otherwise, not likely, :( the party will be focusing on a desperate bid to win the Governorship.

Indiana

Birch Evans III is safe, open seat leans R.

IA

Chuck is safe, open seat is a probably a tilt D situation. Steve King is great. Latham and 1 of the 2 statewide Repubs are other possible nominees.

Kansas

Th rat guv is strong candidate, but I don’t think she’d win. Dennis Moore another potential rat.

Kentucky

I don’t think the rats can win an open seat. Retire old man.

Louisiana

Boustany/Kennedy/Alexander

I think only Mitch could win it for the rats but brother and sister in senate? Eww.

Maryland

Likely safe D.

Steele should move into CD-1 and run for the house if he doesn’t run for Governor.

Missou

Tossup if open (sigh), Bond not likely to lose. I like Steelman and would give Talent another shot if polling is favorable. Carnaspawn likely opposition indeed.

Nevada

If Reid wasn’t challenged in ‘04 why would they in ‘10 after the state has gone rattastic? Ensign is practically best buds with Larry Mead now.

NH

Gregg verus Lynch is a tossup imo, Lynch in an open seat, but a ribbon on it for him. :/

NY

Safe D

Rudy for Gov or Mayor.

NC

Burr will be challenged, but I predict he’ll break the curse. Dole didn’t lose due to her (R).

ND

Open seat goes R. Finally. (but no cakewalk)

Dorgan is safe if he runs. Please quit.

Ohio

RINO scum will win if he runs.

Open seat would be a tossup.

Oklahoma

Republicahoma is safe imo. I don’t think Boren would leave his safe (:() house seat. Henry could make a go, but I don’t think he’ll win baring a 1934-style midterm.

Oregon

Party is incompetent here. Poor Smith is out. Safe D. Longest consecutive rat held Governorship will likely be the priority for what’s left of the OR GOP.

Penn

If Arlen Runs expect a strong challenge and a close race.

Fast Ed would be favored for an open seat but said he’s not running for office again. Plenty of rat possibles.

AG Corbett will run for Governor instead. Schweiker should have ran for governor in 02.

Maybe Barletta for senate? Gerlach?

SD

Herseth (not guilty, maybe the only one) could win if she runs. I don’t expect her to.

Utah-

Safe

Matheson won’t risk it and wouldn’t win.

Vermont

Safe D

I don’t expect Douglas to run or crack 45% if he does.

Washington

Third statewide run for Rossi? AG McKenna? We need to target this one.

Wisconsin

Feingold can be beat. Paul Ryan please.

Maine? This is a 2012 race.

Rino Snowe is safe, I think she’s the more popular of the 2 twins. Baldacci is no threat imo his reelection was underwhelming. Only a “we need this seat to secure our rat senate control” argument could dislodge Snowe (and even that is not likely)

[Impy]

Wait, a greenie won a state house seat? Ha.

[Spiff]

Flake and Shadegg (maybe house leadership would be better for him) are top choices. I know little about the statewide officeholding Republicans.

Flake is just about the most pro-amnesty for illegal aliens Republican in the House of Representatives. Steer clear.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"NC - Burr will be fine. Saved by the Democrat majority."

Yeah, but Dole was supposed to be fine, too. And I can't believe NC elected a half-witted twit as Governor (Easley and Hunt notwithstanding). BTW, how many of the Constitutional officers did we win there ? Did Merritt, Troxler & Berry hold on ?

"OK - I could see Tom Cole running."

Tom Cole can eat dirt. His embarrassing leadership of the NRCC/party recruitment for the House was one of the worst in the past 50 years.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Dodd is not running for re-election."

I'll believe it when I see it... The guy is a Watergate baby, he wouldn't know what to do with himself outside of the Senate.

"How many former governors do we have out there than can run for some of these seats? You mentioned J.Bush, Pataki, and Ehrlich (I agree Ehrlich needs to unseat O’Malley). Owens, Huckabee. There are many."

A number of them, but there are drawbacks with some of them (age concerns and/or plain suitability). Some don't like Jeb Bush, but frankly he fulfilled most of what I consider the goals and obligations of a sitting Governor (namely maintaining or growing your party on your watch and passing it off to a party successor -- for all that he got a big "A." His successor is another story, though. Crist willfully and deliberately cost the ticket Florida with stunts like felons voting. That is so beyond f*cked I don't know what to say). Pataki I just don't think could win a Senate seat and he was only fair to mediocre as Governor.

Ehrlich was in a tough spot in a VERY difficult state for us. After all, he was the first GOP Governor since Agnew (and even Agnew only won a plurality in 1966 in a 3-way race and was more liberal than the Democrat nominee, a Wallaceite). I appreciate that he didn't cut and run when it looked tough in '06, and that scored him big points with me. Dying with your boots on politically speaking is behavior that SHOULD be rewarded. Whichever office he chooses to run for, he should be backed. Owens of CO and Huckster are simply non-starters. Owens quite literally turned a solid Republican state into a rodent one and he was a terrible Governor (a decade ago he was talked up as Presidential material). I can review the Governors (former or otherwise) by state if you wish...

"If Zero’s star fades our opportunity in 2010 will be vast. The possibility of taking out a Schumer, or taking back Zero’s seat, cannot be passed up. We need to groom Ditka and Elway as well."

Quite so. But if our party keeps acting stupid as it has in the past two cycles, that opportunity may be passed up once again...

[Impy]

Oh, very disappointing.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yup. A VERY Caucasian Greenie who oddly had no on-the-ballot Democrat opposition (nor Republican) in a BLACK North Little Rock district. I think Maine is the only other state currently with a Greenie in the legislature.

[Norman Bates]

As a Senator Owens and Huck wouldn’t be responsible for growing the state party. Look, we need a GOP butt in the seat. It’s as simple as that!

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I don’t think Joe Liberalman will indeed support the GOP."

He really doesn't have anywhere else to go. He won't win the Dem nomination EVER again in CT. Republicans elected him. He just needs to get it over with and move rightward.

"ARIZONA-"

Yes, Goddard will go for Governor. His dad was a one-term wonder who won in 1964 (Goldwater was able to carry Paul Fannin into his seat, but not Dick Kleindienst), but lost in '66 (2-year terms back then) in the anti-LBJ backlash.

"Flake and Shadegg"

Flake is pro-shamnesty, as another FReeper told you and Shadegg went for the bailout. I can't support either now.

"California"

No, Ah-nold said he wasn't going to run against Boxer. Besides, he's going to be too busy helping the RODENT win his office in 2010.

"Colorado"

Elway was mentioned, but I have trouble handicapping sports figures (since I know about as much about sports as too many Americans know about political history -- zilch). They're wild cards. Tancredo is running for Governor, but I can't support him. Slick Willard will no doubt "hep" him out so that he can then repay him again to support the RINO Anti-Christ for President in 2012. I'd rather keep the Dem, since at least he's honest about his party affiliation.

"Florida"

Bronson ? I don't know. Outgoing House Speaker (and fellow Cubano) Marco Rubio may take a run.

"Georgia-"

Chambliss screwed up on BOTH shamnesty and the bailout. He may very well break precedent and lose the runoff because a lot of GA Republicans are enraged with his NON-Conservative votes.

"Illinois"

If the IL GOP runs Ray LaTHUG for Governor, they deserve to lose. The False Messiah should kiss his foot for helping get him the Senate seat and the Presidency-cum-Dictatorship. But it's all in Blago's hands now. He could choose somebody from "outside the box" (hell, even himself).

"Kansas"

I think the Gov had a better shot had McCain won. You're right that Moore may try for it (and he'll try to bequeath his House seat to former KC Mayor Carol Marinovich).

"Kentucky"

Oh, the rodents very well can win. You're forgetting who Ben Chandler is. His grandfather served as both Governor and Senator. Chandler almost was elected Governor against Fletcher and got Fletcher's House seat as a consolation prize. He's already won statewide twice as Attorney General. Chandler will be tough to beat.

"Louisiana"

Mitch won't run for the Senate, that's too much even for Louisiana folks. As Galactic Overlord told me, Jay Dardenne, the GOP Sec of State may opt to go for Vitter's seat.

"Maryland"

Steele running for the House ? I don't know about that. Problem is that he made a serious error in judgment backing the backstabbing traitor Gilchrest over Harris (Ehrlich backed Harris). I think it's Harris's honor to seek a rematch against fluke winner Kravotil (or whatever his name is). That seat shouldn't have been lost. Y'know, I think the GOP ought to sue Gilchrest for the money they've given to support him over the years for his treachery.

"Missouri"

Talent is too risky given his two losses. He simply shouldn't have lost in 2006.

"Nevada"

Gibbons could've beaten Reid in '04 and deliberately chose not to, so we had no serious candidate. This time there is no excuse. Reid is a menace.

"North Carolina"

Burr might break the curse, but he'd better hustle. Dole's loss was a bad sign and so was the Governorship.

"Oklahoma"

That'll be Boren's best shot. His dad was Governor and Senator (and grandfather was a Congressman). I'd like to see us get that House seat back.

"Oregon"

Actually, Washington has the longest Dem hold. Vic Atiyeh was elected in '78 and reelected in '82 and left office in 1987. John Spellman won in 1980 in WA and was beaten by Booth Gardner in '84 despite the Reagan landslide (his RINO inclinations spelled doom for him). Of course, technically the Virgin Islands has gone even longer, their last Republican won in 1970 and left in '75 (although a crypto-R Indy won in '94).

"Pennsylvania"

Forgot the sleazy Chris Matthews is pondering a run for the Senate. Hell, if the talentless Franken can do it...

"South Dakota"

Steph may be waiting, as is the Gov, for Johnson to buy it and run for the special. It was shameful we didn't aggressively target the seat this year.

"Washington"

McKenna ? He's an ultra-RINO who aided the theft by the rodents of the Governorship.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Norm, I just wrote up a whole piece yesterday on the damage Huckster inflicted in Arkansas. Owens was almost equally as bad (in fact, in some ways worse — he took a SOLID Republican state and turned it to the rodents and handed the Governorship to a liberal scumbag on a silver platter). In fact, had Owens run for President, I’d have targeted him as relentlessly as I did Slick Willard.

As the sole Republicans of the “troika” of offices (2 Senators and Governor) were they to win, they’d be back in as de facto heads of the parties. That simply cannot be allowed to happen. You don’t reward willfully incompetent and destructive RINOs. It’s as simple as that.

[Clintonfatigued]

As for Arkansas, if Boozman doesn’t run, the GOP would be well advised to look at state Senators Ruth Whittaker and Sharon Trusty.

[Impy]

I assume there was some ballot controversy with the rat. I’m shocked any judge would allow a black dem to kept off the ballot.

[Impy]

He really doesn't have anywhere else to go. He won't win the Dem nomination EVER again in CT. Republicans elected him. He just needs to get it over with and move rightward.

He better if he does come over, we don't need a new RINO Emperor.

No, Ah-nold said he wasn't going to run against Boxer. Besides, he's going to be too busy helping the RODENT win his office in 2010.

If terrible RINO Steve Poizner or Tom Campbell is the GOP nominee I'm sure Swartzy would support them. :/

Outgoing House Speaker (and fellow Cubano) Marco Rubio may take a run.

Good. Great to see the Cubans stuck with the GOP this year rather than elect Castroites.

You're right that Moore may try for it (and he'll try to bequeath his House seat to former KC Mayor Carol Marinovich).

I'm calling Moore the rat's version of Anne Northup. We need to beat him to take back the house.

But it's all in Blago's hands now. He could choose somebody from "outside the box" (hell, even himself).

Good move for him to appoint himself. Latest rat who wants his current job, Daley's brother.

Chandler will be tough to beat.

If the climate is favorable I think he'd lose. If it's not....we could suffer another net loss.

Steele running for the House ? I don't know about that.

I was thinking he needs a job if he's to remain a relevant player in GOP politics. Besides appearing on Fox I don't know what he's been up too.

That'll be Boren's best shot. His dad was Governor and Senator (and grandfather was a Congressman). I'd like to see us get that House seat back.

Mouse Boren should be targeted to switch.

Forgot the sleazy Chris Matthews is pondering a run for the Senate. Hell, if the talentless Franken can do it...

The regular rats in PA won't give him the nomination like they did in Minnesota. And no one likes Tweety as the DUmmies call him.

Steph may be waiting, as is the Gov, for Johnson to buy it and run for the special. It was shameful we didn't aggressively target the seat this year.

Indeedy. Doesn't look like he'll die now.

McKenna ? He's an ultra-RINO who aided the theft by the rodents of the Governorship.

Well that explains his easy reelection. Pr*ck!

[Impy]

Oh and you don’t need to know anything about sports, all you need to know is that successful sports figures are loved by the local populace and the have name recognition.

That’s why despite his age we needed Coach Osborne to run against Ben Nelson. And it was a testament to surprising good judgment that he lost the gubernatorial primary to the new incumbent who had done nothing to warrant losing the job and was better on the key issue of tuition for illegals.

[RightMike]

Brownback is running for Governor and Moran has already announced for the Senate.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"If terrible RINO Steve Poizner or Tom Campbell is the GOP nominee I'm sure Swartzy would support them. :/"

I'd be surprised. He didn't really help anyone in typical RINO fashion. Poizner's win was only because his opponent was the highly unpopular Cruz Bustamante looking to swap offices after his 2 terms as Lt Governor.

"I'm calling Moore the rat's version of Anne Northup. We need to beat him to take back the house."

JoCo RINOs are quite happy with Moore. Remember you have to battle both the RINOs AND the rodents there.

"Good move for him to appoint himself. Latest rat who wants his current job, Daley's brother."

We'll never get rid of a Daley.

"(On Ben Chandler) If the climate is favorable I think he'd lose. If it's not....we could suffer another net loss."

Bunning is talking about raising $10 million (talking... getting is another). He's got to go. Excellent voting record, but too old (79 in '10) and erratic.

"Mouse Boren should be targeted to switch."

There's nothing in it for a Democrat to switch to the GOP after January with such a wide margin. I'd be more concerned about RINOs thinking of switching as it would potentially benefit them and the pork for their districts.

"The regular rats in PA won't give him the nomination like they did in Minnesota. And no one likes Tweety as the DUmmies call him."

Depends upon who ultimately ends up running. Surprises do happen in primaries. I'm rather amazed Specter hasn't died in office -- of course, he still has two more years and things are going to get REAL ugly in the 111th.

"Indeedy. Doesn't look like he'll die now."

I never saw Tim Johnson out on the campaign trail this year, so I have no idea how he's doing (and we can't count on the media to tell us -- of course, if SD had a Democrat Governor with Steppie ready to step in, there would've been overwhelming pressure by the media to get him to step down). The media will prop up any moribund rodent.

"Well that explains his easy reelection. Pr*ck!"

Gotta love those RINOs serving their rodent masters.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Maybe better Osborne didn’t. He would’ve been a Hagelite RINO squish. You remember his running mate got so mad they weren’t nominated she switched parties immediately and got the Dems to put her on the ballot for reelection to her statewide office — thankfully she lost handily.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I hadn’t heard that about Brownback. I didn’t know Moran had made up his mind (I thought if he didn’t run for Governor he was going to wait until 2014 for Pat Roberts’s seat, presumably when he’ll be retiring).

[Clintonfatigued]

Oh, I found something on the pending Brownback retirement. Moran has already filed papers.

http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/15584

[fieldmarshaldj]

I see Tiahrt is potentially interested. That is NOT the kind of internecine battle we need between him and Moran (and Tiahrt’s Wichita seat is winnable for the rodents, too, since that was Dan Glickman’s seat for 18 years). Of course, Tiahrt has been waiting for something to open up longer than Moran. Might be better for him to hold off until Roberts retires in 2014.

[Clintonfatigued]

I think that Tiahrt would back down in the face of such a rivalry. And Jerry Moran would defeat even Kathleen Selebius.

A lot of elderly Senators are up for reelection that year.

[Clintonfatigued]

I found more information, although I must be out of my skull for researching the 2010 elections before 2009 has begun. But some news has already broken out.

In Florida, Congressman Ron Klein appears likely to run against Mel Martinez. Incidentally, you had expersesed a high opinion of Allen West, who ran against Klein this year. West polled 45%, better than expected.

In Kentucky, Jim Bunning continues to worry his party by insisting on seeking reelection. The betting now is that Ben Chandler wants to remain in the House. A rematch with 2004 opponent Dan Mongiardo is being whispered about.

In Louisiana, David Vitter continues to cause his party headaches, for reasons that are well-known to political junkies. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne may challenge Vitter in the primary if Vitter doesn’t step down voluntarily. Democrats are sitting on the sidelines now, but that won’t last.

Harry Reid is still heartened by the 2008 outcome in Nevada, but he remains controversial there. Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolocki is a possibility.

In New Hampshire, Judd Gregg is being eyed by the ‘Rats, but they privately regard him as stronger politically than John Sununu was. The names being bandied about is Congressman Paul Hodes, who is credible.

North Dakota poses two quesitons. First, will Byron Dorgan seek another term, when he’ll be 68? He considered retiring in 2004, it’s said. Second, will Governor John Hoeven run? Until those two questions are answered, nothing else matters.

In Ohio, George Voinovich is beatable. Also, he considered retiring in 2004 and was talked out of it by Karl Rove. A lot of names are being mentioned as possible foes, but it’s way too early.

Chris Matthews for Senate? It sounds absurd, but so did Al Franken for Seante. Arlen Specter insists on seeking another term at the age of 80.

As Walter Cronkite used to say, “And that’s the news.”

[Norman Bates]

As far as Spector, what choice do we have - who else is going to hold that seat? Toomey could run again but I’m not sure he would hold the seat.

If Chris Matthews is going to run he needs to resign from MSNBC.

[Clintonfatigued]

“As far as Spector, what choice do we have - who else is going to hold that seat?”

Specter is running, so that’s a mute point for the time being. If he drops out, perhaps AG Tom Corbett.

[Impy]

Any top tier candidate “could” hold it, but we’re talking about a toss-up race.

Unless that clown Matthews is the rat, he’d lose.

I really can’t see him getting the nomination.

[yongin]

The 2010 Senate prospects don’t look promising. If the False Messiah doesn’t get his filibuster proof Senate this year, he’ll have it in 2011. Our only hope is for the Dems to vote for more bailouts which will harm the fragile economy more. Then hope for a backlash.

[Impy]

“In Ohio, George Voinovich is beatable. Also, he considered retiring in 2004 and was talked out of it by Karl Rove.”

Oh I didn’t know that, thanks Karl.

“In Florida, Congressman Ron Klein appears likely to run against Mel Martinez. Incidentally, you had expersesed a high opinion of Allen West, who ran against Klein this year. West polled 45%, better than expected.”

Quite. I expected 60-40 Klein. With $$ West could win the open seat.

[Impy]

"Congressman Todd Tiahrt from the Wichita area, has not ruled out such a campaign and has been traveling the state recently to raise his profile outside his south-central Kansas district. "An open Senate seat will draw a lot of interest, and my feeling is Kansas will not have two senators from the same congressional district," Tiahrt said Friday, a reference to Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, who also represented western Kansas before ascending to the Senate."

Oh no, I hate regional BS. 2 conservatives from anywhere please.

[Clintonfatigued]

“Oh no, I hate regional BS.”

Regional is very important. Everyone has local biases to one degree or another. In fact, the main reason that Andy Harris lost in Maryland was because he was from suburban Baltimore, and the Eastern Shore voters wanted one of their own (and their candidate campaigned as a conservative Democrat).

[Impy]

Yeah I know many voters care about this. I don’t. Of course my “region” is devoid of Republicans. But if it makes Tihart more electable to be from a different part of the state then that’s a point in his favor.

I didn’t know Harris was from the Baltimore area. Perhaps he should not be nominated again if that was a factor. Not really fair for the Baltimore burbs though, they were stuck in that seat and have every right to have the congressman be from their area. MD-01 should be in the top 5 of target seats. Roy Dyson beat a Larry Craig Republican in 1980 and held the seat for 10 years. Can’t let that happen again.

[Clintonfatigued]

Very true. We need for the nominee to be a strong conservative from the Eastern Shore.