Skip to comments.NBER: U.S. In Recession That Began Last December
Posted on 12/01/2008 1:54:42 PM PST by rabscuttle385
It's official: The United States is in a recession -- and it started a year ago.
The nation's economy peaked, and the recession began, in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced today.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I don’t think it’s exactly Orwellian. The NBER is the organization that has been calling recessions for almost 90 years. They haven’t been hiding the fact that they don’t use the pop-definition of what a recession is. I’s posted at their website.
“Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBERs recession dating procedure?
A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. As an example, the last recession, in 2001, did not include two consecutive quarters of decline. As of the date of the committees meeting, the economy had not yet experienced two consecutive quarters of decline.
Q: Why doesnt the committee accept the two-quarter definition?
A: The committees procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but use a range of indicators. Second, we place considerable emphasis on monthly indicators in arriving at a monthly chronology. Third, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, a significant decline in activity. Fourth, in examining the behavior of domestic production, we consider not only the conventional product-side GDP estimates, but also the conceptually equivalent income-side GDI estimates. The differences between these two sets of estimates were particularly evident in 2007 and 2008.”
Most people haven’t heard of the NBER because most people aren’t fascinated by economic arcana. Sports tend to be more entertaining. It’s a research organization studying the economy, independent of both government and business.
“When did the republicans vote to change the definition of recession? That is what I am referring to. OOOPS That is to which/what I refer?”
Politicians don’t get to set the definition. The NBER has been the referee since 1920.
Thanks, and the female half has been named by Zer0 as an advisor.
Oh dear God! We can't have people being married, can we?
W has sucked at economics since day one. This is his mess.
Private, non-profit economic research group. Notable members included Anna Schwartz, Milton Friedman, and Ludwig von Mises. Oh, and my econ prof (a student of Milton Friedman) last summer mentioned the group to my class.
The National Bureau of Economic Research is a bunch of geeks that chew numbers, economists. Nothing says they are Dims or Reps.
If bush hadn’t signed the Bill to get subprime loans out to the poor illegals and poor blacks, most of this recession never would have happened. Now, when it becomes a depression, that’s when it will be all Bush’s fault. His administration is still in charge and they have had the economic ball in their hands for the past 8 years.
Under OBamBam??? Tax cuts?? No way, no how. Never gonna happen.
Congress critters may pass another “economic stimulus package” to send out checks to bribe voters, but that is not a tax cut, and does not have the same effect on the economy as a real tax cut.
Martin Feldstein is one of the eight members that called the recession. He was President Reagan’s principle economic advisor.
“The NBER has been the referee since 1920.”
I have been led to believe that a “recession” is defined as, “Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.” Am I wrong?
Then this one is going to be a depression.
it’s an odd recession in my valley.
it’s shop ‘till you drop here.
Take courage. Our illustrious Fed Chief and Treas Sec, who consistently told us that we were not in a recession for 6 months after we were in one is now telling us that we will definitely not have a depression. Fell better?
I’ve been around for 50 years. “Reputable” or not I’ve never heard of them. They might as well be space aliens. “Scully!”
These guys aren’t economists, they are historians.
I have to look at the situation with humor. We're along for the ride. And I mean ride
I've been stating for at least 6 months that we have been in a recession all year, and have even "eaten crow" about the fact that I could not defend my position to the Freepyannas who have to have it broadcast on an IMAX screen before they even consider believing it.
I knew we have been in a recession all year. It is flaming obvious to anybody who has been out of work for months or anybody who has been trying to expand a business.
From October 22, although I have been saying this since spring!
FWIW, I have felt weve been in a true recession all year, masked by fraudulent government accounting, off the books war spending and a tax-payer funded $150 Billion shopping spree. I get lambasted thoroughly every time I say this and am routinely commanded to prove we are in a recession. I agree we are in a recession and even the pundits are saying 3rd quarter GDP numbers will be negative. The recession is too deep to hide anymore.
I wasn't alone. There were others, such as this from NVDave on October 22.
I believe (and have stated before here on FR) that I thought that the earliest signs of the recession were see in December 07 to Jan 08. Starting in August, the recession was undeniable, but too many people were pointing at only the headling GDP number (3.3%) which was mostly based on exports and a broken GDP deflator.
All the while, we were doubted by a parade of people such as mlocher who said this...
I am not calling you a conspiracy nut, but I would like to see the data that is driving you to this conclusion. Can you provide that please?
when I said this...
We have been in a recession since last December but the cooked government numbers dont admit to that fact. Unemployment is higher than 6.5% but the cooked government numbers dont admit to that fact. Yes, I sound like a conspiracy nut, but the fact is I know the truth and the government doesnt want you to know the truth
The Freepyannas just couldn't believe we were in a recession unless the GOVERNMENT confessed to it. Do your OWN homework. Figure the facts out for yourselves. Don't wait until after months of government lies designed to artificially bolster consumer confidence to come to the obvious conclusion. Open your eyes and just look.
Still and all, it is nice, joined with a handful of other astute observers here, to be finally...
We Are Vindicated!
I was right all along, despite suffering a parade of Freepyanna jeers. "Those who don't know history are condemned to repeat its mistakes."
“I have been led to believe that a recession is defined as, Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Am I wrong?”
Yes. That definition is “pop-economics”. Somewhere up the thread I posted a link to the NBER website and their FAQ regarding their definition of recession.
Lol. Don’t let the pollyannas grind you down. That same crew couldn’t spot the mother of all housing bubbles as well.
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