Posted on 12/10/2008 5:55:42 PM PST by MitchellC
The first poll of the 2010 Senate race came out today.
With the dust barely settled on the last race, Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released numbers comparing U.S. Sen. Richard Burr with possible Democratic opponent Attorney General Roy Cooper.
The poll shows a competitive race, with Cooper leading Burr by five points, 39 to 34 percent. It also shows Burr with a 32 percent approval rating, compared to Cooper's 44 percent approval.
"If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally," writes pollster Tom Jensen.
He notes that Burr also had much lower approval ratings among Democrats than Cooper did among Republicans.
The poll of 630 North Carolina voters was taken Dec. 8-9. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Looks like Burr has a good chance of becoming the latest victim of the “one term curse” Senate seat.
Even if Burr learns the lesson of EDole, he is still doomed. NC is moving the way of DE and MD, instead of SC and GA.
Lots came happen between now and then. If Burr and the NC-GOP have any strategic sense, they would start campaigning against all rats statewide. Then again, that’s what all state GOP’s should do. Is it too much to hope for?
It kind of reminds me of this year’s NH Senate race. Six years ago, John Sununu won the seat from the incumbant Senator by saying he “couldn’t win” against the Democrat and needed to step aside for a more electable Republican. This year, when the same fate fell on Sununu and he found himself trailing the RAT for monthes on end, he hypocritically INSISTED on staying on the race. NH had moved left and the is was virtually impossible for a Republican tied at the hip to Bush winning re-election in the only state that flipped from Bush to Kerry.
Is Cooper interested in running? It’s said that Congessman Heath Schuler is. In any case, it looks like the revolving door Senate seat may revolve again.
They could bring in Sarah Palin to help solidify the base and do some fundraising. She did well in NC at every venue—they just brought her in a little late. Furthermore, the state Reps seems pretty unorganized. My son was a walk-in on the McCain campaign and within two weeks had 47 regular volunteers who had made nearly 20,000 calls. NC needs early organizing.
Why does Burr have such poor numbers? Should we replace him with a strong GOPer if he’s a RINO?
Now, Tom jensen is setting the stage for the next election. He is trying to influence the election by encouraging the Democratic National Committee to again spend millions to win this senate race.
I have already written a letter to Senator Burr after the georgia special election and gave him all my analysis of the way to win the state. It can be done if we can reduce the voter margin in couple of strong democratic counties. Never in North Carolina, we will have the same turn out like 2008 presidential election. Blacks will not come out in huge numbers for a white guy like cooper.
What other Republican in NH could’ve held Sununu’s seat ?
We’ll see, though Burr is occupying that cursed seat. It’s been 40 years since someone was reelected to it. But Burr really needs to get on the ball. He seems almost invisible these days, and while that works for some Democrats, that’s not good for Republicans, especially in an unfortunately competitive state.
I never knew that.
Well, Dole lost a seat that hadn't changed parties since the 1972 race. Maybe the baton changed hands.
NC needs early organizing.
This is still a conservative state. It is very simple. Reduce the margin among blacks. The usual turnout of blacks is 17 to 18%. At this range, it is easy for republicans to win the state. If I am right, it went to 20 to 22% during the presidential election and that really made it impossible to compensate with whites. More over the college crowd will not be so organized for senate election and that is a huge relief.
There are so many closet republicans in the universities. If we can even have a small open small n universities, we can reduce the margin among college kids. Recipe for success in North carolina is as follows
Sarah palin + Bobby jindal + Presence of Volunteers in each precinct of the state+ Reducing the margin among blacks and university students+ Start registering more republicans= Victory
We’ll see, though Burr is occupying that cursed seat. It’s been 40 years since someone was reelected to it. But Burr really needs to get on the ball. He seems almost invisible these days, and while that works for some Democrats, that’s not good for Republicans, especially in an unfortunately competitive state.
The 10th and 11th members were Sam Ervin and Everett Jordan, and with Jordan's election in '58, the delegation remained stable for the next 14 years. That was the first time since 1916-30 they had just the two members. Jordan retired in '72 and was replaced by Jesse Helms (who became the first Republican popularly elected in NC to the Senate, and the first Republican (prior to the popular vote) elected since the Mountain Republican Jeter Prichard served a partial and full term from 1895-1903).
When Sam Ervin retired in '74, it started the weird cycle. He was succeded by the state Attorney General Robert Morgan, a moderate Democrat. Thanks to Jesse's footsoldiers and an incredibly aggressive campaign, Morgan lost in an upset to the wheelchair-bound Helms protege, John East in '80. East was pondering reelection when he learned he had cancer, withdrew his reelection bid, and committed suicide.
The leading Republican in the primary, Jim Broyhill, a long-time Congressman, was then appointed by Gov. Jim Martin, but Broyhill was running in a terrible GOP year in '86 against ex-Gov. Terry Sanford, making a political comeback after 2 decades. Sanford beat Sen. Broyhill. And, in '92, Sanford (who was clearly past his prime in his mid 70s) lost in an upset to ex-Democrat Lauch Faircloth (Faircloth had beaten Sue Myrick in the primary, and she probably would've been a better choice to hold the seat).
Faircloth, who played the part of Sanford in '98 as the "old man", then lost to our favorite Breck Girl. And Johnnie Edwards, more than likely realizing he'd lose reelection in '04, hitched his wagon to Lurch's star instead, and then Richard Burr beat ole Irksome Bowels to put the seat back in the GOP column. We shall see if Burr breaks the curse, but history doesn't favor him, especially if Roy Cooper runs. What could benefit Burr, however, is a national anti-Dem climate that our new False Messiah is more than likely to engender...
He was the runner up in the 2002 GOP primary for Governor and just about every Republican in NH will tell you they had "buyer's remorse" with Benson and would have nominated Keough if they the chance to have a do-over.
Look, the NH state legislature is probably the largest in the country, in has hundreds of members for such a tiny state. Thus, there are DOZENS of rising GOP stars in its ranks that could be groomed for higher office.
NH Republicans can take back their state if they run candidates with a clean slate and no ties to Bush (running a GWB yes man for re-election when NH was the ONLY state to flip from Bush to Kerry was simply a death wish from the NH GOP), and NO MORE BLUE-BLOOD FAMILY DYNASTIES like the Sununu's, Gregg's, and Basses.
Remember, NH was ENTIRELY under Republican control just five years ago. Now it's ENTIRELY under RAT control. Do you really think the "demographics" have changed THAT much in five years to render the state completely "unwinnable" by the GOP?
It's winnable, except the NHGOP status quo has become radioactive. The Sununu clan has destroyed the NHGOP far more than anything Romeny or Huckabee did in their states. Neither of those guys STARTED with rock solid GOP control of every office. Sununu Sr. even ruined our chance to have a conservative SC by selling GHWB on David Souter as a "home run" for conservatives. (imagine the damage this guy could have done in the 90s if he was in charge of the national party) And now Sununu Sr. wants to be STATE party chairman. What?! Kinda reminds me of a terminally ill alcaholic reaching for one last shot of gin. If he becomes chairman that will be the last nail in the coffin for NH Republicans.
And Sununu Jr. doing the exact same thing he defeated Bob Smith for doing (running for re-election when he was behind by double digits to Shaheen) simply makes him an outright hypocrite.
I’m sorry, Billy, but Keough wasn’t going to do it. A guy who lost a primary 6 years ago and hasn’t been seen since was not going to beat Shaheen. Sununu was going to be the only one who could do it as an incumbent. Bob Smith had to go 6 years ago because it was clear he couldn’t hold the seat, but Sununu, this time around, at least appeared competitive (at one point, he seemed to pull ahead, though that may have been an outlier poll). Smith went loony toons after he lost and endorsed Kerry, so that shows how “good” he was.
I agree bringing Old Man Sununu to lead the party now is ludicrous. But I do disagree on one part, there’s no central figure in NH responsible for the decline. It’s been a collective problem. The Sununus are not the equivalent of Slick Willard or Weld (or Chrissie Whitman), because there’s still a viable, albeit diminished, GOP in NH. I’d say, though, the Basses were more problematic, as they always seemed to be at the epicenter of big losses. Grandpa Robert, then Governor, was there when the Democrats swept 4 out of the 5 statewide offices in the 1912 fiasco (all but the single Senate seat, which happened to be the same seat Judd Gregg holds today). Daddy Perkins, the Congressman, in 1962 (still alive today at 96, and born just a month before the 1912 blowout election) was there for the fiasco that cost us the Senate seat that year that took until 1978 to recover. And, of course, Charlie, who was there in 2006. If anything, no one named Bass should ever run for the GOP in NH ever again.
While I don’t dispute what you are saying, McCain would have won NC if not for Bob Barr. He lost by 13,000 votes, Barr received 25,000 votes.
Barr cost McCain Indiana, too.
You know that is what I heard, but when I went to the individual states to look it up, it looked like McCain still would have lost Indiana, it was close though, 19,243 for Barr and a loss of 25,836 for McCain... at least that is my notes.. People like Barr tick me off, he didn’t have the guts to run in the primary and went in just to act as a spoiler.
That’s how Democrats win GOP states, with 3rd parties but the vote should never have been that close in the first place.
I agree with you.. McCain was a horrible candidate, no way around that fact.
Hmm, I’m looking at Dave Leip’s site and this is how he has it:
Barack H. Obama (D) 1,374,039 49.91%
John S. McCain (R) 1,345,648 48.88%
Bob Barr (L) 29,257 1.06%
Barr appeared, by roughly a thousand votes, to have cost McCain. It’s shocking that McCain even lost at all even with Barr, since the state hadn’t voted Democrat for President since 1964.
Difference is in 2002, Smith couldn’t beat Shaheen, and Sununu could. In 2008, Sununu couldn’t beat Shaheen, but neither would have any other Republican in the entire state, in fact, Sununu was the best chance at winning that seat.
Obama 1,367,503
McCain 1,341,667
I had to look somewhere else for the Barr numbers, so got them off the Libertarian site... I believe your numbers are probably more reliable.
I still can’t believe we lost Dole. She was a staple. This country is shifting and we aren’t on the ball.
Dole lost for Dole. She ran a horrid campaign. She thought she was a shoo in and when she finally realized she was in a real race, she made one blunder after another. The commercial in which she questioned Kay Hagan’s Christianity
was the final straw. Whe I saw that I turned to my husband and said, “she’s lost the race for certain now, just wait til Hagan gets her church members out there speaking for her”. Sure enough, a commercial was made, a law suit for defamation was filed and Dole lost.
The other problem she had was that she was hardly ever in the state. She is a DC maven and I doubt we will seldom see her here in NC again.
Ditto what you said on how to organize and motivate, but dont underestimate how hard the dems will work - yes blacks will come out less than this year but i wil l bet it will be in greater numbers than other midterms. also cooper’s good reputation will be hard to overcome.
2010 is really a long time away. After all, who would have predicted that a market meltdown would have been this election's October surprise?
In NC it’s looks like he’d need half the Barr votes to win so yes he’d have gotten that.
He’d need nearly all in Indiana. Some would’ve not voted or voted and I’m sure some would have Gobama-ed (do we make enough words from “Obama” or what?). Some anti-war zealots.
“With 424 members, the General Court is the largest state legislature in the United States. The General Court is also the fourth-largest English-speaking legislative body in the world, behind the Parliament of the United Kingdom, the United States Congress, and the Parliament of India[1], and has one of the greatest disparities in size between chambers of a bicameral legislature.”
“If the same level of representation were present in Congress, the U.S. House of Representatives would have approximately 99,000 members according to current population estimates.”
Such a level of representation is only possible in tiny states, I kinda like it. Of course in 2006 so many rats won, many didn’t think they would, they didn’t want the job, they didn’t show up for work.
I noticed 1912 was the last time the rats one the state Senate before 98 Shaheen coattails. I’ve always assumed bull mousers ran candidates for everything that year.
A staple of mediocrity?
The margin was what really hit me.
Schuler hasn’t won statewide like Cooper but his alleged conservatism (faux) would be a big problem too cause morons eat that up. Cooper would be stronger though.
Least we’d get his house seat back. The sweetest victories are for rat seats were they lose primaries for higher office. Like Jane Harmon in Cali, course she won it back.
I hate it to say it but, those are strong rats. Burr might needs a anti-dem climate. In an even steven year/turnout slugfest Burr looks like a loser on paper.
The mindset of the NH GOP kind of reminds me of the IL DEMS. No downstate Dem need apply, because all the statewide slots are received for politicians kids from Chicago. That kind of arrogance caused the NH GOP to begin imploding in 2002, and it looks like it may have finally caught up with the IL DEMS now too.
Recall that McCain was up by double digits in two different polls from two different groups after the convention, then PPP started with their string of polls that suddenly showed a tight race. In fairness however, their last poll was pretty close to the results, and other pollsters, including the conservative Civitas Institute, were showing the same numbers as PPP along the way.
The only thing I’d question is the sudden drop that PPP showed directly after McCain showed a big lead.
What is it that convinces you that Jensen had some part in Obama’s moving his resources from GA to NC?
“Barr cost McCain Indiana, too.”
In an interesting twist, Obama supporters claim that Ralph Nader tipped Missouri to McCain.
Word is that Congrssman Paul Hodes is thinking of running against Judd Gregg.
Shea-Porter is mentioned too. I’d laugh but then again I thought Bradley would whip her until I saw her consistent lead in the polls. Noboby moonbat wins.
Guv Lynch is the big fish here. Gotta hope he passes.
Gregg is kinda like Burr, hasn’t really made a mark has he.
That is something. Sununu, Gregg, Bass. All scions.
Despite the built in name idea they have and my thought that if polling is favorable Jeb should be supported for Fla Senate, we really need to get away from that in both parties. This ain’t a monarchy. Take their names away and how many scions would have made it on their own merits? G. W. Bush? Nope. The ouright passing of seats like property is criminal. See Emil Jones and John STROGER. Cook county was his freakin kingdom! The unqualified Price took the throne! And the wives? Mrs. Huckabee the one Republican running statewide he wanted to help. Ex Mrs, Gibbons wanted to be in Washington away from her husband, she thought she was entitled to his seat.
We’re lucky Pa Sununu is Cuban-Born, cause he’d probably want to run for President. I can see it in his face.
After the GOP Convention, McCain and Dole rose in the polls in NC. At that time, Nate Silver of 538, doubted Obama could carry NC. It looked like a triple win for the GOP in NC (McCain, Dole, and McCrory). Then the stock market crashed and voters wanted to punish all Republicans. Burr trailing right now is evident of the GOP brand in the dumpster. Hopefully, after a year with the recession still in effective, people will start to blame the Dems for economic woes.
Gregg’s dad served just a single 2-year term as Governor in the ‘50s and in no other office capacity, though remained on the scene right up until his death in the past decade. Judd Gregg has served in all 3 capacities in NH, as Congressman, Governor, and as Senator. He’s not perfect, but I’d say he appears to have earned most of those positions.
2 prominent Republicans from non-political families with the potential to rise to higher office in the state include the Attorney General, Kelly Ayotte, who was a holdover from Gov. Craig. Another is Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, a Conservative, now in his second term.
Amazing we see poll numbers like this — yet we have conservatives on this website cheering when Jeb Bush, who would have easily won decides no to run in FL. Sad. We seem to be on a well paved path to about 35 Senators.
Jeb is no conservative.
No more Bushes, Kennedy, or Clintons. Ever.
That’s my motto.
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