Skip to comments.Public Pensions are Underfunded
Posted on 12/21/2008 4:30:56 AM PST by reaganaut1
The extent to which public pensions are underfunded has been obscured by governmental accounting rules, which allow pension liabilities to be discounted at expected rates of return on pension assets, according to NBER researchers Robert Novy-Marx and Joshua Rauh. In The Intergenerational Transfer of Public Pension Promises (NBER Working Paper No. 14343), they report that over the next 15 years, state pensions are expected to grow to a total of about $7.9 trillion. But Novy-Marx and Rauh conservatively estimate a 50 percent chance that the system will be underfunded by more than $750 billion at that time, and a 25 percent chance of a shortfall of at least $1.75 trillion (in 2005 dollars). Adjusting for risk, the true intergenerational transfer is substantially larger, they write. Insuring both taxpayers against funding deficits and plan participants against benefit reductions would cost almost $2 trillion today, even though governments portray state pensions as almost fully funded.
Novy-Marx and Rauh collected data on the largest defined benefit (DB) pension funds sponsored by U.S. state governments. In a typical DB pension plan, an employer pledges an annual pension payment of an amount that is a function of the employee's final salary and years of employment. To assemble the list of plans, the authors began with data from the Census of Governments published by the U.S. Census Bureau. They studied all plans with more than $1 billion of assets. There were 112 such plans at the end of 2005. They then examined the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) for each pension plan and collected total actuarial liabilities for each, along with the discount rate used by state actuaries to calculate these liabilities.
(Excerpt) Read more at nber.org ...
I am thinking "The Ransom of Red Chief" in that case.
Ive enjoyed a good career as a welding instructor in the public vocational school system.I taught many young people how to go out and earn a living . And hopefully passed on some life skill and values.
Been there 25 years.I need thirty. I did not start teaching immediately after college. I did not go to college. I went into the navy then learned welding and later finished my education while raising a family and working full time welding jobs usually combined with side work. Looking forward to retiring someday, and getting my pension. That was the agreenet that i signed onto in good faith.
I`ve always kept doing the side work as a welder however. Summer Vacations (unpaid) that teachers get allowed me to spend time welding, some would say working. But there must be something wrong with this public employee `cause i love working with metal.
When I was a kid my grandpa, drilled it in to me that what i needed to do was learn a trade, any trade. Then I would always have a roof over my head and food on the table.
So yes I would hate to loose my pension or have it cut in any way , i will not be surprised if that happens. I will fight to keep the pension that i paid for out of the wages Ive earned. But in the meantime I`ll just suck it up and keep on welding and do what i can to pass it on. ALTHOUGH i`M SURE GOING TO HAVE TO RAISE MY RATES. Especially if i recognize a customer as a liberal elitist.
Not all of us “public screwel teachers” arn`t worth it. There are many trade instructors that have followed the same path that i have and do not deserve to be screwed, by the politicians or the public. I`ve helped raise your children, in many cases more than you realize.
Just want to contribute to informing as many people as possible that many of us public employees are worth it.
Rob a bank and wait for the cops.
Three hots & a cot, free medical care, TV, exercise room, free medical care...
Your comment is not believable without pics!!! LOL (just kidding)
Your approach is novel and obviously lucrative; however, gravity will someday have an affect on your job rates. So be sure to sock some of that cash away.
In the meantime, would you come clean my igloo in Point Barrow? hehe
Run a wall street ponzi scheme?
__ake __ou __roke. Catchy, huh.
Now, can you report me to the SEC today? I want to get this going as with the Chosen One in office, with one strike of the pen, I'll lose my business. So, the sooner I can lock up my cot, hots and healthcare the better. BTW, are there minimum security prisons for my wife and 4 kids with the same benefits?
LOL - the kids may be a problem...
I wonder if one can collect SS while in prison?
I thought those lavish “public pensions” were funded using the same kind of Ponzi scheme as social security - - taxes takn from today’s government “workers” pay the pensions of....
Just bend over and grab your ankles again.
Funny you say that. Just yesterday, I was explaining to my 17 year old son how SS works. After I explained to him the money he is earning that goes to the SS IOU box he will not see until at LEAST 55 years from now.
He thought I was playing a joke on him.
The joke is on all of us
Yes it is....I'm 47 and I know I'll probably never see a nickle of it. The whole economy of this country will collapse long before then anyway.
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Obama Says A Baby Is A Punishment
Every weekend I buy a box of .40 cal S&W and box of 12 gauge
Walmart has great deals if you have one near you. So is Cabella's for 12ga. For a while they were even including free shipping.
Gravity won’t be a problem. Failed to mention I clean standing on my head.