Yellowstone Earthquakes: Supervolcano Update

U.S. News & World Report ^ | January 02, 2009 | James Pethokoukis

[2ndDivisionVet]

A Yellowstone earthquake update:

1) The rumbling continues, including 3.5, 3.0 and 3.2 quakes just today

2) Here is some more Jake Lowenstern (the Yellowstone volcano scientist) analysis (via TIME):

Jake Lowenstern, Ph.D.,YVO's chief scientist, who also is part of the USGS Volcano Hazards Team, told TIME that it doesn't appear a supervolcano event is imminent. "We don't think the amount of magma exists that would create one of these large eruptions of the past," he said. "It is still possible to have a volcanic eruption comparable to other volcanoes. But we would expect to see more and larger quakes, deformation and precursory explosions out of the lake. We don't believe that anything strange is happening right now." Last summer, YVO installed new instrumentation in boreholes 500 to 600 feet deep to better detect ground deformation. Says Lowenstern: "We have a lot more ability to look at all the data now.

3) Here is a passage on the Yellowstone supervolcano from "A Short History of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson. He interviews a Yellowstone geologist, Paul Doss. I don't find it reassuring:

I asked him what caused Yellowstone to blow when it did.

"Don't know. Nobody knows. Volcanoes are strange things. We really don't understand them at all. Vesuvius, in Italy, was active for three hundred years until an eruption in 1944 and then it just stopped. It's been silent ever since. Some volcanologists think that it is recharging in a big way, which is a little worrying because two million people live on or around it. But nobody knows."

"And how much warning would you get if Yellowstone was going to go?" He shrugged. "Nobody was around the last time it blew, so nobody knows what the warning signs are. Probably you would have swarms of earthquakes and some surface uplift and possibly some changes in the patterns of behavior of the geysers and steam vents, but nobody really knows."

"So it could just blow without warning?"

He nodded thoughtfully. The trouble, he explained, is that nearly all the things that would constitute warning signs already exist in some measure at Yellowstone. "Earthquakes are generally a precursor of volcanic eruptions, but the park already has lots of earthquakes-1,260 of them last year. Most of them are too small to be felt, but they are earthquakes nonetheless."

A change in the pattern of geyser eruptions might also be taken as a clue, he said, but these too vary unpredictably. Once the most famous geyser in the park was Excelsior Geyser. It used to erupt regularly and spectacularly to heights of three hundred feet, but in 1888 it just stopped. Then in 1985 it erupted again, though only to a height of eighty feet. Steamboat Geyser is the biggest geyser in the world when it blows, shooting water four hundred feet into the air, but the intervals between its eruptions have ranged from as little as four days to almost fifty years. "If it blew today and again next week, that wouldn't tell us anything at all about what it might do the following week or the week after or twenty years from now," Doss says. "The whole park is so volatile that it's essentially impossible to draw conclusions from almost anything that happens."

Evacuating Yellowstone would never be easy. The park gets some three million visitors a year, mostly in the three peak months of summer. The park's roads are comparatively few and they are kept intentionally narrow, partly to slow traffic, partly to preserve an air of picturesqueness, and partly because of topographical constraints. At the height of summer, it can easily take half a day to cross the park and hours to get anywhere within it. "Whenever people see animals, they just stop, wherever they are," Doss says. "We get bear jams. We get bison jams. We get wolf jams."

In the autumn of 2000, representatives from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service, along with some academics, met and formed something called the Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory. Four such bodies were in existence already-in Hawaii, California, Alaska, and Washington-but oddly none in the largest volcanic zone in the world. The YVO is not actually a thing, but more an idea-an agreement to coordinate efforts at studying and analyzing the park's diverse geology. One of their first tasks, Doss told me, was to draw up an "earthquake and volcano hazards plan"-a plan of action in the event of a crisis.

"There isn't one already?" I said.

"No. Afraid not. But there will be soon."

"Isn't that just a little tardy?"

He smiled. "Well, let's just say that it's not any too soon."

[mewzilla]

Activity’s been looking rather quiet for a while now. Either the wind’s died down, or Mother Nature’s taking a breather. Or possibly both :)

[cowdog77]

Swine and pigs have over a dozen parasites within them, such as tapeworms, flukes, worms, and trichinae. There is no safe temperature at which pork can be cooked to ensure that all these parasites, their cysts,and eggs will be killed.

[jws3sticks]

Yellowstone National Park is a national treasure. I had the joy of working there during my college summers in 1961 and 1962. That was followed by a summer working in Grand Teton National Park in 1963. Talk about a blessed youth. Both are beautiful in their different ways. Here are a few of my shots from my visit this past August. It was so much the better, as I traveled with my son, to show him some of my favorite views and places, like the Cowboy Bar, in Jackson and the Jackson Lake Lodge, in the park.

This is my favorite picture of the trip, Hayden Valley, between Yellowstone Lake and Canyon, with the little black dots on the right being the American buffalo

This is one of the most breath taking view in the world, the 309 foot Lower Falls of the Yellowstone, in the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone

A close up view of the same falls

This Western Tananger flew in an landed about 6 feet from me. I almost had a attach getting my camera ready for the shot. It was like it was looking for food. What a rare treat!

Sun setting on the Tetons from String Lake. What a joy.

Here's a shot of the falls on the "inside" Firehole River road. Great swimming, too.

I sure hope you have enjoyed my pictures. Visit and support the National Park system. Perhaps, next summer, Yellowstone Lake will be warmer than the usual 55 degrees, turning it into a classic hot spaw, with a view.

[andyandval]

Really nice!

[PennsylvaniaMom]

Excellent pictures...thanks for posting them :)

[Hot Tabasco]

but nobody really knows

The first true words I've heard from the scientific community in decades......

[FroggyTheGremlim]

“what is the worst thing you ever tasted? “

An overripe persimmon.

[Wonder Warthog]

"Lima beans are one of the nastiest foods on God's green earth."

Nah, lima beans are OK. Brussels sprouts are another matter.

[November Gale]

Beautiful pictures! Thanks so much for sharing! You’re really talented with that camera.

[jws3sticks]

Nov Gale and PA Mom,

Thanks for the kind comments. I love my cameras. Put the Tetons in front of just about any camera and you end up with great pictures. Granted timing, aim and cropping helps.

Don't get me started with my Grand Kids. LOL

Here's a teaser:

Mine are the red shirt in the foreground and the stripes in the background.

[ops33]

So is Charleston, SC.

[tubebender]

Which reminds me...Thanks for sending the large box of Okra because we never know when a Volcano will need to be appeased.

that should end the thread hijackers and get us back on the subject at hand...

[blackbart.223]

"Nah, lima beans are OK. Brussels sprouts are another matter."

I'll pass on both.

[Othniel]

Not upset. Just sayin'.

[Global2010]

Cool.

I am not up to risking the road traffic and my agility to bike with KVs Wheelchair system (size of a small car in itself) rigged up on the back. : )

For non KV runs a horse for around our lil outback community but someone would complain about the horse crap.

I can walk on decent days down to check mail or the lil boat hoist store for milk/eggs.

Not to many decent days in our frigid rain forrest here on the coast.

What the Hey!

[GOPJ]

One of their first tasks, Doss told me, was to draw up an "earthquake and volcano hazards plan"-a plan of action in the event of a crisis. "There isn't one already?" I said. "No. Afraid not. But there will be soon."

I assume that's for a small eruption - a large one would require 5 or 6 states to be evacuated...

[GOPJ]

Cascadia Subduction Zone

You've got a map, right?

[2ndDivisionVet]

As I understand it, a large eruption would probably be a world-killer.

Yellowstone Caldera Resources

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2157979/posts

[dfwgator]

As I understand it, a large eruption would probably be a world-killer.

People-killer, yes. World-killer, no. The planet would recover.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I actually like both, especially Brussel Sprouts (with bacon and butter...)