Skip to comments.Possibility of Bio-Terrorism in Swine Flu Outbreak
Posted on 04/25/2009 5:51:39 AM PDT by FreedomFighter1013
In a discussion this morning with a cell biologist and medical doctor working at Johns Hopkins, my friend thought this 4-part flu combination is highly unusual and looks like it could be man-made. Especially because it has an avian strain. My doctor friend (he's Taiwanese) explained that in Asia, it's common for a avian-swine-human flu to happen naturally, but this virus first showed up in Mexico, where pigs and ducks are not usually raised together. Also, recombination of more than 2-different flu viruses is extremely rare. I'm just repeating what he said as an expert in the field. He says the CDC needs to explain if there is a possibility that we are under a bio-weapon attack.
From CDC via Wikipedia: Anne Schuchat, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said that the American cases were found to be made up of genetic elements from four different flu viruses -- North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza A virus subtype H1N1, and swine influenza virus typically found in Asia and Europe. For two cases a complete genome sequence had been obtained. She said that the virus was resistant to amantadine and rimantadine, but susceptible to oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza). Preliminary genetic characterization found that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was similar to that of swine flu viruses present in U.S. pigs since 1999, but the neuraminidase (NA) and matrix protein (M) genes resembled versions present in European swine flu isolates. Viruses with this genetic makeup had not previously been found to be circulating in humans or pigs, but there is no formal national surveillance system to determine what viruses are circulating in pigs in the U.S. The seasonal influenza strain H1N1 vaccine is thought to be unlikely to provide protection.
I doubt this is bioterrorism. But keep in mind to cripple this country, a viral or disease outbreak does not need to have a high mortality rate. At any given time during flu season, there are no free hospital beds in most big cities, let alone ICU beds. Now add to that tens of thousands of people sick enough to seek medical care/need hospitalization, and the system would break overnight.
Sounds exactly like what I went through some years ago. I was in my early 30's, good health, and caught something I couldn't shake for three months. Delirium, fever, hallucinations, flu aches, drowning in congestion, on and off for months. When it finally wrapped up, my doctor concluded I'd had encephalitis after a real bad flu, but that's just a guess.
The good news is, you'll be immune to everything for like 15 years afterwards. :) (Seriously, not so much as a sniffle did I have for the next 15 yrs.)
True. Unless you have a mutating virus that becomes resistant quickly....allowing the medical community to go on a goose chase with tamiflu, then realizing it no longer works. Meanwhile, the infected population rises.
These situations are ripe for hysteria and mass panic.
Give me proof. I just think we look like a bunch of right wing kooks when we are on here opening up threads that there is a good possibility that there is bio-terrorism in the swine flu outbreak when there is absolutely no proof.
I work in the healthcare profession and we sell the flu kits that diagnose flu. We will see how this flu outbreak goes but remember the media wants to scare you so they can sell more newspapers and sell more media time.
There isn’t enough Tamiflu on hand to handle a crisis.
Cue “Don’t Fear the Reaper”.
I wonder if this is connected.
That makes no sense. How would we have any chance of paying off our debt if our economy completely shuts down?
“Well, with a U.S. population of 300,000,000 that comes to 6,000,000 dead. And I think the mortality rate is more like 7%, if the numbers of over a thousand infected with 68 deaths, is correct. It’s definitely something to watch.”
Let’s be clear. 6 million would die ONLY IF all 300,000,000 Contracted the virus. The likelihood of that happening is extremely remote. Not disagreeing with the mortality rate, just keeping some perspective on your dire numbers you posted.
Before we get overly freaked out, it’s inappropriate to multiply the entire population by the mortality rate. Many, usually most, people don’t actually get the disease, and the mortality rate is calculated from those who contract it.
The US population in 1918, during the Spanish Flu, was about 110M. About 28% contracted this disease, or about 30M. Of these, about 500,000 to 700,000 died, or about 2 to 3%.
The rate of contraction and the mortality rate varied in different parts of the world.
But even this disease, probably the most virulent in human history, killed only about .5% of the US population. Today that would be about 1.5M, a horrible tragedy but not nation-destroying levels. We are also much better equipped to fight a similar disease than in 1918. Not adequately, but better.
They reported this morning, not this, but they have NO plan to close the border.
“Possibility of Bio-Terrorism in Swine Flu Outbreak”
Excuse me, there’s no such thing as “bio-terrorism”.
Now it might be a “human-caused bio-disaster”, but certainly not “bio-terrorism”.
Didn’t you get the memo?
Weve already had confirmed cases in CA, AZ and TX and its in Canada. Yesterday, up in Queens, a private school had 75 students being tested.
Wonder where these kids went on Spring Break?
What’s awful is just trying to function daily because you think it’s just a bad cold or it’s almost gone etc. And then there’s people saying-”you’re STILL sick?? Did you get a flu shot??” Like I got this on purpose and a flu shot is not a cure-all.
Have only been out of my mind when I had the really high fever-didn’t know what I was doing. But the weirdest thing was having the stomach thing as a part of it. You’ve GOT to be kidding me!!...that’s just not right!
I had encephalitis as a child w/scarlet fever...not fun AT ALL. Maybe that’s why I never did drugs; did enough hallucinating when I was 5-I’m all set with that!
Glad you’re feeling better, fellow Freeper!
Proof is in the pudding as they say. This could be a bug that just mutated on its own. I hope you are right and this is just all Y2k like hysteria.
I just had that conversation with a friend 5 minutes ago about our next terrorist attack.
It will be blamed on us, not the Muslims
Exactly what i said yesterday....terrorists involved...(maybe)
You can get Tamiflu at any drug store.
My first thought as well...
Baby, can you dig your mannnnnn
Bio-Terrorism. I’m sure Janet Napolitano will hop right on this. < /sarc>
Another reason why it isn't engineered. A mutation is as likely to make it harmless as it is to make it more harmful.
Deadly strains of flu virus are at fault here. These are not toys and they should be registered! What we need is a new set of laws making flu illegal! Anyone found with an unlicensed flu should be fined and jailed. See, this flu in Mexico could only have come from the U.S., especially if it is human engineered. I have heard that (in spite of having huge amounts of money and a corrupt government) big-time Mexican drug dealers are crossing the border and obtaining their flu at U.S. trade shows! Once flu is outlawed, there will be no more problems with it.
The ones lost were H2N2 whereas today's flu contains H1N1. Anyone know how closely related these two are or if H2N2 is a combination of H1N1 and one of the other three viruses in this current outbreak?
Until it decides to mutate from a bad bug to a super bad bug and we don't any way to stop it.
Mutation is neutral, that means that 50% will be more deadly and 50% less deadly, but at a mutation rate of 1.5/10,000 per per nucleotide per infectious cycle, 50% of these mutation will be more deadly. And, since this virus has already mutated to become extremely deadly (i.e., 1918), the possibility of this super, possibly human-engineered, 4-virus combination (strain) to become extremely deadly again is greater than 0. How much greater, we don’t know with current information.
It’s a threat to make us pay off our debt BEFORE our economy shuts down. But if we don’t and our economy crashes anyway, we’ve still come off worse with lots of sick people and no economy than China will have with no debt repaid.
Look, it’s just a speculation. I personally think it’s a natural outbreak, but I’ve read others’ opinions on flu boards who think it’s a bioweapon, and thought I’d pass them along and see what people think....
The 1918 bug was by far the most virulent in history.
It is, of course, possible that a much more virulent type than the 1918 version could evolve, but it seems unlikely.
There have actually been bugs with much higher mortality rates and speed of attack than the 1918 one. They tend to actually be LESS deadly, as they kill their hosts so fast the disease can’t spread far. What was so deadly about the 1918 flu was its balance of characteristics, which allowed it to spread rapidly while still being very deadly. Of course, modern high-speed transportation changes the equations.
BTW, my Dad used to talk about being six years old and watching his father and uncles carry eight family members out of a neighbor’s house. All had died.
I read in another related article somewhere that some of those NY school kids were in Mexico for Spring Break.
“Am I to understand this MAY be a combination of swine and avian flu?”
Ever hear the term, “When Pigs Fly”?
Not the way it works. Of all possible mutations, only a tiny percentage, probably far below 1%, make the disease more deadly to humans. Were this not the case, such a rapidly mutating disease would have wiped out the human race long ago. In actual fact, a truly virulent form comes along only every few decades.
I've read that the flu virus is actually descended from an intestinal virus affecting dinosaurs. It's not easy for a virus with this history to affect the human respiratory system.
BTW, one theory for the 90% to 95% loss of population in North America during the 16th century is the spread of swine flu and anthrax from De Soto's pigs to the human population.
<just keeping some perspective on your dire numbers you posted.
Also, the dead folks are in Mexico, not here. People who got sick in the US are still alive. Never underestimate the power of a 3rd world medical system to kill you.
I ain't a nerd, even though I can dual boot Windows XP and Linux Ubuntu lol.
AHA! I knew it.
And you have what kind of proof?? Nothing”
What the hell proof is he supposed to have.
His speculation is at least as good or better than your “non-speculation”.
Try thoughtful reflection - it may be a new one for you.
It would be life changing. EVERYONE back then kow people who died. Tey had to burn the bodies, shut down businesses, quarantine people. It could get bad very fast and I’m not just talking about health effects.
Latest from CDC
“...the LAST thing you would do is engineer a strain susceptible to tamiflu.”
...unless you’re trying to get them to burn the current Tamiflu stocks before releasing something else, while they try to replenish.
Tamiflu Resistant H1N1 Vaccine Failures Raise Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary 16:53
March 24, 2009
Authorities urge caution over Tamiflu fears
The World Today - Tuesday, 21 April , 2009 12:42:00
Reporter: Oscar McLaren
PETER CAVE: Medical researchers in Japan have released a study which suggests that the anti-flu drug Tamiflu may not be the saviour that it’s been painted. They say that it increases what’s referred to as ‘abnormal behaviour’ in young people who take the drug.
Tamiflu is used to treat various types of influenza and governments around the world have amassed enormous stockpiles of it just in case of a pandemic of bird flu.
For now though, the only country which sees Tamiflu prescribed on a regular basis for the flu is Japan, where there have been reports of children going so far as trying to jump from balconies after taking the drug over there.
But the World Health Organisation says the findings of the latest study are far from conclusive and there needs to be more research into the area.
Oscar McLaren filed this report.
OSCAR MCLAREN: The Australian Government is among many worldwide which have built up stockpiles of the drug Tamiflu, in case of a bird flu pandemic.
But researchers in Japan say they’ve found a statistical link between use of the drug and unusual behaviour in young people.
They refer to cases of children trying to jump off balconies and of hopping on one foot.
But Julie Hall, who works for the World Health Organisation in the Western Pacific region, says most symptoms are mild.
JULIE HALL: The majority of young people who are taking Tamiflu had just slightly unusual behaviour, in that they were expressing or describing things in a slightly unusual way.
The research looked at a range of different behaviours, and the vast majority were really quite mild things that may be associated with feeling unwell and having a fever anyways.
OSCAR MCLAREN: She says the findings are only based on statistics, and no direct link has been proven.
JULIE HALL: The findings that have come out so far are not conclusive, and they’re not those that you read the findings, and think ‘Goodness me, there really is an urgent issue here’.
However, it is clearly an important issue to look at, because it may be that if indeed certain groups react differently to this drug, then in the event of a pandemic, different guidelines will be needed for different types of individuals.
OSCAR MCLAREN: Influenza researchers say problems with Tamiflu have only really been encountered in Japan.
Ian Barr from the Influenza Centre in Melbourne says more research is needed to understand why.
IAN BARR: So, you know, whether it’s something to do with Japan using more of this drug than any other country in the world or whether there is something peculiar of some genetic basis for this that may affect the Japanese population more predominantly than other populations, I think remains to be seen.
OSCAR MCLAREN: And he says the correlation found in this study could be little more than statistical noise.
IAN BARR: The thing which has also been raised is that many of the side-effects of the actual influenza disease can mimic some of these neuropsychiatric events.
So, teasing apart whether it’s the drug causing some of these neuropsychiatric events or whether it’s the effects of influenza, which can cause raised temperatures and may have some of these similar sorts of side effects, is quite difficult to do.
OSCAR MCLAREN: The findings in this study are limited to people under the age of 19.
But all sides of this debate agree that there’s a real need for more research about the drug.
PETER CAVE: And that report from Oscar McLaren.
People treated for bird flu hop on one foot and jump off balconies.
Things that make you go hmmmm...
ohhhhh Rosanna Rosanna Danna....I used to love to watch her...laughed our butts off....SNL just ain’t what it used to be ;)
Yeah, that dimwit would order all of our border patrol to be moved from Mexico to Canada.
You know the AIDS/HIV community would be first in line for any rationed vaccine.
geeeshh louise....I don’t think the point of his message was to try and prove anything....just a heads up to the possibility.