Posted on 06/14/2009 3:23:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
(To get a feel for what is going on in the streets of Tehran, watch this linked BBC video clip.)
Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann's show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow -- and there we met.
He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."
But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.
My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.
Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.
He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.
I am not convinced that this source "knows" these things will definitely happen but am convinced of his credentials and impressed with the seriousness of the discussion we had and his own concern that there may be political killing sprees ahead.
This is not a vision he advocates -- but one he fears.
-- Steve Clemons
Is that the that says "Kill the Jews," "Death to America," or "The Holocaust is a myth?"
I am convinced that the vast majority of people under the age of 35 in the Middle East hate Islam and want real freedom, but are too afraid to speak up unless they can act in a group like what is going on now.
Frankly, except for the oil thing, it wouldn’t bother me if all of the countries in the middles went at each others’ throats.
Obama silent on the issue, Young Iranians dying for their freedom. Obama for all his rhetoric is weak on action. A note for the Iranian people that are trying to rise up do not count on Obama he is a Milquetoast liberal that wants to play on both sides of the fence. You had your chance to revolt when there was a real leader in the WH a leader whose Rhetoric matched his deeds a leader whose word was his bond.
Wonder if Obama with make Olbermans worst person list? LOL
Where’s the CIA?
I think they're attending Sensitivity Training seminars.
This would be just the beginning. Once the Fundamentalists and the Supreme Leader are gone, the faux "reformers" won't hold long onto their power.
Musavi, Khatami and Co. are just transition, once the radicals are gone.
After the toppling of the Shah 1979, there were several cabinets that were NOT Khomeinist. It took almost a year until the regime was truely changed.
Likewise today, once the genie is out of the bottle and the Ayatollah is deposed, the people won't put up with faux "reformers". The next time real elections are being held, they WILL demand free elections, and no way the old guard will stay.
Spying on the Michigan Militia, of course.
Protecting the BIRTH CERTIFICATE.
Thanks for posting. Interesting stuff.
Politics 101: when those in power are threatened by domestic opponents, create an external crisis to bring about a national rally-around-the-flag mood in an attempt to unify. Israel, I’m sure, is on a higher state of alert.
Where’s the CIA? Dueling with Nanzi.
And may the Israelis drink Iran’s milkshake.
Well they should be supporting the opposition. Regardless of what I’ve read in the news lately, young Iranians like the US. Hell, AKs are $1.50 apiece on the market.
I am literally making popcorn at this very instant. This is Berlin Wall stuff.
Minute-by-minute twitter updates direct from Iran here http://www.scoopler.com/search/#%22iranelection%22
“Is that the that says “Kill the Jews,” “Death to America,” or “The Holocaust is a myth?”
Yep printed on some old Jimmy Carter Letterhead they found in the Embassy!
RT @jo_crew RT @kayoungche: RT @Elizrael RT @neysn: NBC offices in Tehran raided, cameras & Equip taken. BBC told to get out. #IranElection
Twitter - 1 min ago
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