Skip to comments.Iran: There Will Be Blood
Posted on 06/14/2009 3:23:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
(To get a feel for what is going on in the streets of Tehran, watch this linked BBC video clip.)
Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann's show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow -- and there we met.
He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."
But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.
My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.
Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.
He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.
I am not convinced that this source "knows" these things will definitely happen but am convinced of his credentials and impressed with the seriousness of the discussion we had and his own concern that there may be political killing sprees ahead.
This is not a vision he advocates -- but one he fears.
-- Steve Clemons
I wondered when that would happen. Will twitter be next?
That's enough people for a revolution.
That was my thought...if they all had weapons....that would be a serious deal!
If he attempts Gorbachev-like liberalization he may lose control just the same.
Ahmadinejad in Moscow--if he is cagey, he will confer with cagey-bee.
Only ruthless, cunning repression of a certain type could succeed--
--for which Ahmadinejad should be booking flights on to Beijing.
An exchange student from China told a radio host last month that they are taught that Tiananmen involved one soldier who dropped his weapon and accidentally killed one student-demonstrator.
Iran has too many cell phones--
Can we just get along--dispatch James Earl Carter immediately without escort to wander alone in the sea of seething dissatisfaction.
Karma coming home to roost.
This is starting to look serious.
A sea of people.
History turns on such things.
It's for the people to go from knowing they've been manipulated and repressed, to identifying and deposing the manipulator-repressors.
It's a huge leap from being supporters of other candidates to realizing these same candidates may well be more alike than different from Khamenei-Ahmadinejad.
I will urge our congressmen and senators and president to act.
After all, the whole world is watching.
That blue-lipped phreek in the Whitehouse never uttered a single word of support for these people. Damn him...and the machine he rode in on!
I can’t find any news outlet that confirms the Russian story.
I take it back. Now I found a ton of them. Doesn’t seem like he should be nywhere but Iran right now. That pic of him and Putin...
Putin looks fit to be tied and Homodinejad looks like a scared rabbit.
They've been told not to do anything until they've been issued their 'Miranda rights' card.
Start with the guy in the red shirt!
The “right” and the “right wing” and “conservatives” are the people who wish to maintain the “old regime.” The Old Regime in Iran is the Mullahs and their puppet government. In the US the Old Regime is the Constitution and the Declaration, free markets. etc.
There Will Be Blood -- Exclusive Interview With an Iranian Journalist in TehranThrough the night, primarily through intermittent internet connection I have been able to talk with Iranian photo-journalist NS (she does not want her name used, for obvious reasons). NS has been in the middle of the protests. While the interview text below was compiled before the sermon, a later communication tells me this: Like many others, she is enraged by the "khutba" (Friday sermon) of the Ayatollah Khamenei which will now open the doors for a Tiananmen in Tehran. Saturday will likely be the bloodiest day so far, if the brave crowds decide to come out. Another friend from Tehran cried on the phone, after he had been to Tehran University to pray and hear the Ayatollah's sermon. His last words to me before the mobile phone connection was cut off were: "Tomorrow there will be blood."
Actually, the "Old Regime in Iran" would be the Shah - the Mullahs are nothing but wet-behind-the-ears, rabble-rousing terrorists. And even a government led by a shah is hardly comparable to "the Old Regime" in these United States, which you suggest "is the Constitution and the Declaration, free markets. etc."
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