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Iran: There Will Be Blood
The Washington Note ^ | Saturday, Jun 13 2009, 10:29PM | Steve Clemons

Posted on 06/14/2009 3:23:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

(To get a feel for what is going on in the streets of Tehran, watch this linked BBC video clip.)

Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann's show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow -- and there we met.

He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."

But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.

My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.

Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.

He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.

I am not convinced that this source "knows" these things will definitely happen but am convinced of his credentials and impressed with the seriousness of the discussion we had and his own concern that there may be political killing sprees ahead.

This is not a vision he advocates -- but one he fears.

-- Steve Clemons


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: ahmadinejad; iran; iranviolence2009; mousavi
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1 posted on 06/14/2009 3:23:54 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: MarineBrat; csense; NormsRevenge; jveritas; SandRat; Straight Vermonter; GeronL; Fred Nerks; ...
Don't know how reliable this is....but was referenced on this Blog at Huffington Post :

Nico Pitney

2 posted on 06/14/2009 3:26:23 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Just think how bad this would be without the Iranian 2nd Amendment!!!!! Oops !!!!!!!!
3 posted on 06/14/2009 3:28:24 PM PDT by Cheetahcat (Zero the Wright kind of Racist! We are in a state of War with Democrats)
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To: Cheetahcat
Just think how bad this would be without the Iranian 2nd Amendment!!!!! Oops !!!!!!!!

Is that the that says "Kill the Jews," "Death to America," or "The Holocaust is a myth?"

4 posted on 06/14/2009 3:29:48 PM PDT by pnh102 (Regarding liberalism, always attribute to malice what you think can be explained by stupidity. - Me)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I am convinced that the vast majority of people under the age of 35 in the Middle East hate Islam and want real freedom, but are too afraid to speak up unless they can act in a group like what is going on now.


5 posted on 06/14/2009 3:29:49 PM PDT by LukeL (Yasser Arafat: "I'd kill for a Nobel Peace Prize")
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Frankly, except for the oil thing, it wouldn’t bother me if all of the countries in the middles went at each others’ throats.


6 posted on 06/14/2009 3:30:37 PM PDT by CaptRon
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Obama silent on the issue, Young Iranians dying for their freedom. Obama for all his rhetoric is weak on action. A note for the Iranian people that are trying to rise up do not count on Obama he is a Milquetoast liberal that wants to play on both sides of the fence. You had your chance to revolt when there was a real leader in the WH a leader whose Rhetoric matched his deeds a leader whose word was his bond.

Wonder if Obama with make Olbermans worst person list? LOL


7 posted on 06/14/2009 3:31:13 PM PDT by Typical_Whitey (The Obama constituents : "You are about to be ruled by the Black Man Cracker")
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To: LukeL

Where’s the CIA?


8 posted on 06/14/2009 3:31:22 PM PDT by CaptRon
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To: CaptRon
Where’s the CIA?

I think they're attending Sensitivity Training seminars.

9 posted on 06/14/2009 3:32:53 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all. -- Texas Eagle)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.

This would be just the beginning. Once the Fundamentalists and the Supreme Leader are gone, the faux "reformers" won't hold long onto their power.

Musavi, Khatami and Co. are just transition, once the radicals are gone.

After the toppling of the Shah 1979, there were several cabinets that were NOT Khomeinist. It took almost a year until the regime was truely changed.

Likewise today, once the genie is out of the bottle and the Ayatollah is deposed, the people won't put up with faux "reformers". The next time real elections are being held, they WILL demand free elections, and no way the old guard will stay.

10 posted on 06/14/2009 3:33:06 PM PDT by SolidWood (Down with the islamic regime! Freedom for Iran!)
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To: CaptRon

Spying on the Michigan Militia, of course.


11 posted on 06/14/2009 3:34:22 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: CaptRon

Protecting the BIRTH CERTIFICATE.


12 posted on 06/14/2009 3:34:37 PM PDT by omega4179 (America is a Christian Nation.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Thanks for posting. Interesting stuff.


13 posted on 06/14/2009 3:34:43 PM PDT by RushIsMyTeddyBear (Obama. Clear and Pres__ent Danger.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Politics 101: when those in power are threatened by domestic opponents, create an external crisis to bring about a national rally-around-the-flag mood in an attempt to unify. Israel, I’m sure, is on a higher state of alert.


14 posted on 06/14/2009 3:34:55 PM PDT by Zman (Liberals: denying reality since Day One.)
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To: CaptRon

Where’s the CIA? Dueling with Nanzi.


15 posted on 06/14/2009 3:36:02 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Hey hey! Ho ho! Where's your Birth Certificate/ We've a right to know!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

And may the Israelis drink Iran’s milkshake.


16 posted on 06/14/2009 3:36:26 PM PDT by RichInOC (No! BAD Rich! (What'd I say?))
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To: hoosiermama

Well they should be supporting the opposition. Regardless of what I’ve read in the news lately, young Iranians like the US. Hell, AKs are $1.50 apiece on the market.


17 posted on 06/14/2009 3:38:15 PM PDT by CaptRon
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani

I am literally making popcorn at this very instant. This is Berlin Wall stuff.

Minute-by-minute twitter updates direct from Iran here http://www.scoopler.com/search/#%22iranelection%22

18 posted on 06/14/2009 3:39:27 PM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: pnh102

“Is that the that says “Kill the Jews,” “Death to America,” or “The Holocaust is a myth?”

Yep printed on some old Jimmy Carter Letterhead they found in the Embassy!


19 posted on 06/14/2009 3:43:16 PM PDT by Cheetahcat (Zero the Wright kind of Racist! We are in a state of War with Democrats)
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To: jiggyboy

RT @jo_crew RT @kayoungche: RT @Elizrael RT @neysn: NBC offices in Tehran raided, cameras & Equip taken. BBC told to get out. #IranElection
Twitter - 1 min ago


20 posted on 06/14/2009 3:44:45 PM PDT by calex59
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To: jiggyboy; calex59

Feel free to post the interesting notes from Tweeter on this thread...watch for any news about a possible takeover of a military depot...


21 posted on 06/14/2009 3:48:43 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: LukeL

Islamists in Iran will suffer their fate just like the French Royalists in the revolution of 1789.


22 posted on 06/14/2009 3:50:17 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: All
http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot.com/2009/06/irans-election-fallout-on-twitter.html

Tehran Bureau posts Mousavi's Letter to the people:

In the Name of God

Honorable people of Iran

The reported results of the 10th Iranians residential Election are appalling. The people who witnessed the mixture of votes in long lineups know who they have voted for and observe the wizardry of I.R.I.B (State run TV and Radio) and election officials. Now more than ever before they want to know how and by which officials this game plan has been designed. I object fully to the current procedures and obvious and abundant deviations from law on the day of election and alert people to not surrender to this dangerous plot. Dishonesty and corruption of officials as we have seen will only result in weakening the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran and empowers lies and dictatorships.

I am obliged, due to my religious and national duties, to expose this dangerous plot and to explain its devastating effects on the future of Iran. I am concerned that the continuation of the current situation will transform all key members of this regime into fabulists in confrontation with the nation and seriously jeopardize them in this world and the next.

I advise all officials to halt this agenda at once before it is too late, return to the rule of law and protect the nation’s vote and know that deviation from law renders them illegitimate. They are aware better than anyone else that this country has been through a grand Islamic revolution and the least message of this revolution is that our nation is alert and will oppose anyone who aims to seize the power against the law.

I use this chance to honor the emotions of the nation of Iran and remind them that Iran, this sacred being, belongs to them and not to the fraudulent. It is you who should stay alert. The traitors to the nation’s vote have no fear if this house of Persians burns in flames. We will continue with our green wave of rationality that is inspired by our religious learnings and our love for prophet Mohammad and will confront the rampage of lies that has appeared and marked the image of our nation. However we will not allow our movement to become blind one.

I thank every citizen who took part in spreading this green message by becoming a campaigner and all official and self organized campaigns, I insist that their presence is essential until we achieve results deserving of our country.

[ verse from in Quran: Why not trust in God, who has shown us our ways. We are patient in face of what disturbs us. Our resilience is in god. ]

Mir Hossein Mousavi

23 posted on 06/14/2009 3:52:25 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: calex59

” NBC offices in Tehran raided, cameras & Equip taken.”

How DARE their state-controlled media interfere with OUR state-controlled media!!!/s;)


24 posted on 06/14/2009 3:53:58 PM PDT by Frank_2001
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To: MinorityRepublican; All

jonmovroydis:
Riot police are now shooting at protestors and refusing them medical aid. #Iranelection #TCOT bit.ly/EqJfh

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan
Twitter - 1 min ago - Link from andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com


25 posted on 06/14/2009 3:55:54 PM PDT by calex59
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To: Frank_2001
http://ow.ly/e30S

Video here of crowd and riot police.

26 posted on 06/14/2009 3:57:22 PM PDT by calex59
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To: CaptRon; Texas Eagle
If I were CIA, I would be catching up on my paperwork, using my sick days and vacation days, etc...

No way, no how, would I place myself in a position to be prosecuted by this administration.

27 posted on 06/14/2009 3:58:09 PM PDT by MattinNJ (Sanford/Palin in 2012)
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To: jiggyboy

basabbar:
World to wear green tomorrow for freedom in Iran. Retweet please. #Iranelection #greenscream
Twitter - 42 secs ago


28 posted on 06/14/2009 3:58:30 PM PDT by EBH (I am not your comrade, nor sheeple, nor surf or slave; but a Freeman.)
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To: MattinNJ

You have a point there. But this is a chance to disrupt a regime that can be nothing but a danger to the entire world. And they’ve already started it.


29 posted on 06/14/2009 3:59:27 PM PDT by CaptRon
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To: jiggyboy
rastin:
RT @ktNYC: NBC offices in Tehran raided, cameras confiscated. BBC told to get out Iran immediately. #iranelection
Twitter - 1 min ago

30 posted on 06/14/2009 4:01:58 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Thanks Ernest!


31 posted on 06/14/2009 4:02:15 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/__Since Jan 3, 2004__Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: EBH

persiankiwi:
cannot go out at all. militia everywhere on motorbikes. #Iranelection
Twitter - 2 mins ago


32 posted on 06/14/2009 4:02:50 PM PDT by calex59
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To: All
CNN,Fox and other stations don't seem interested in covering The Iranian's fight against tyranny. I'm convinced that anything they do or do not report benefits Barry Hussein and the Rats.
33 posted on 06/14/2009 4:02:52 PM PDT by 4yearlurker (The ground at Arlington is moving & shaking.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
But the BBC is being nice:

Crowds join Ahmadinejad victory rally

34 posted on 06/14/2009 4:03:23 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: calex59
They talking about a 10 million man march tomorrow.
35 posted on 06/14/2009 4:04:06 PM PDT by EBH (I am not your comrade, nor sheeple, nor surf or slave; but a Freeman.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

lilgirlbigvoice:
RT @persiankiwi: it is crazy in the streets. people running up my street. motorbikes chasing them. #Iranelection
Twitter - 27 secs ago


36 posted on 06/14/2009 4:04:51 PM PDT by calex59
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To: EBH

Maybe someone will actually cover the news tomorrow, eh?


37 posted on 06/14/2009 4:05:35 PM PDT by calex59
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To: All

Checking out for a bit....need grub...be back later.


38 posted on 06/14/2009 4:06:34 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Wowzo, here’s something you won’t see every day —

thanks HuffPoster Nico Pitney.

That link from Nico Pitney’s page, nice quiet riot:

http://www.TehranLive.org/


39 posted on 06/14/2009 4:07:28 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/__Since Jan 3, 2004__Profile updated Monday, January 12, 2009)
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To: CaptRon
I suspect the CIA has been at work for the past 8 years in Iran and with revolutionaries in preparation for this day.

The real test is how the US will support them. We bailed out in the Iraqi revolutionaries after the Kuwait liberation. we bailed out on the Vietnamese and Cambodians. What will we do when the time comes in Iran?

40 posted on 06/14/2009 4:08:46 PM PDT by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said the goal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-Qaeda" and its allies.)
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To: Texas Eagle

Correction not Sensitivity, but Diversity....


41 posted on 06/14/2009 4:10:46 PM PDT by taildragger (Palin / Mulally 2012)
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To: taildragger
Correction not Sensitivity, but Diversity....

That's next week's seminar.

42 posted on 06/14/2009 4:11:23 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all. -- Texas Eagle)
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To: Texas Eagle
>>Where’s the CIA?<<

They are there, as well as Mossad.

43 posted on 06/14/2009 4:11:53 PM PDT by servantboy777
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To: elpadre; All
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3731339,00.html

Here is a link to the German government summoning their Iranian ambassador, I assume that means they are pulling them out of Iran, not sure though.

44 posted on 06/14/2009 4:12:13 PM PDT by calex59
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To: elpadre

This is a real oppportunity than in past years we would have taken advantage of, as we did in Iran in the 50’s. We’ll probanly sent copies of the lyrics to Kumbaya now.


45 posted on 06/14/2009 4:12:23 PM PDT by CaptRon
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To: All

masiar:
RT @persiankiwi unconfirmed but I am hearing that many killed in tehran uni this evening. #Iranelection #iran
Twitter - 1 min ago


46 posted on 06/14/2009 4:13:27 PM PDT by calex59
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
One important factor to consider is the price of oil, and Iran's oil revenues. Oil is way down from a year ago, and oil forms a big part of government revenue. According to the CIA factbook, it's 85% of export revenue.

Iran is very poor, the government has to sustain a vast welfare state to keep the poor on their side, and the revenue just isn't there to keep things propped up for much longer.

The protesters seem to be from the educated class that actually keeps things running, and who are tired of holding up the welfare state.

47 posted on 06/14/2009 4:18:03 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money -- Thatcher)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

OMG. BUMP. MUST READ.


48 posted on 06/14/2009 4:18:03 PM PDT by Miss Behave
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
NBC offices in Tehran raided, cameras confiscated. BBC told to get out Iran immediately.

The MSM is in a bad position relative to the Twitter/blogosphere crowd. Their continued existence in Iran is dependent upon their not annoying the regime by reporting things the regime would rather not get reported.

49 posted on 06/14/2009 4:20:32 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money -- Thatcher)
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To: PapaBear3625
I find this statement interesting, from Iran:

safavid: #IranElection after all Mousavi is a Khomeinist, former PM, and did not pose a danger to the system, so voter fraud does not make sense Twitter - 1 min ago

50 posted on 06/14/2009 4:20:48 PM PDT by calex59
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