Skip to comments.IRAN: Endgame?
Posted on 06/22/2009 12:44:02 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
The moment of truth has come in Iran. The Guardian Council and Ali Khamenei have played their last card and it might be a trump. The Revolutionary Guard has now threatened to meet the protestors in the streets and give them a revolutionary confrontation:
Irans Revolutionary Guard is threatening to crush any further opposition protests over the disputed presidential election and warns demonstrators to prepare for a revolutionary confrontation if they take to the streets again.
The countrys most powerful military force ordered demonstrators to end the sabotage and rioting activities and said their resistance is a conspiracy against Iran.
A statement posted Monday on the Guards website warned protesters to be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation with the Guards, Basij and other security forces and disciplinary forces.
The mullahs have given up on the police and Basijis alone. The Friday warning from Ali Khamenei, the prince formerly known as the divine and Supreme Leader, did nothing to stop Iranians from filling the streets this weekend. Increasing brutality from the Basijis and police resulted in hundreds of arrests, dozens of deaths, and one national martyr for the opposition, but no end to the protests. The police and Basijis have failed to put Iranians back in their place as subjects, and the only option left is a military operation to clear the streets.
If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete. The mullahs will have no credibility with the people and will remain completely reliant on its army to maintain power internally. The Revolutionary Guard will understand this well, and will quickly turn Khamenei and his elders into nothing more than puppets for the Guards purposes. The question then will be whether the Guard can maintain control over 70 million Iranians who have already lost faith in their theocrats and never assented to rule by military force.
That assumes the Revolutionary Guard will remain cohesive. Their senior leadership will see this as a way to grab power, but the rank and file may find it difficult to go to war with their own people, especially against Iranians protesting an election that the Revolutionary Guard considers stolen from one of their own. Will the Revolutionary Guard maintain cohesion as they march into Irans cities and kill women and children? The fact that the mullahs have to play this card makes the question all the more critical.
Update: Unconfirmed reports have the opposition calling for a general strike of indeterminate length starting tomorrow. That will be difficult for a military operation to counter, and will further undermine the mullahs, if successful.
Update II: Allahpundit retweets a report from Tehran that claims the streets have gone quiet today, with Basiji and police patrolling in large numbers. The strike may be the next phase, if its true and its successful.
If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete.
Knew this would happen. Ahmadinejad made it clear during his first term he was all about two things - complete control internally and nuclear tech development.
I believe the Mullahs are now out of power...
And in the red corner....weighing in at...
It’s funny how all dictators seem to play from the same book. Mao Tse-Tung would be proud.
The mullah regime is on it's way out.
Keep in mind that the wordly rule of mullahs is non-traditional and even contradictionary to Shia Islam. The "velayat-e faqih" as the rule of a mullah is called, is a recent invention of Khomeini and likeminded mullahs who weren't even "top tiers". It combines a islamic ideology with a Soviet "republican" dictatorship.
There is much controversy among mullah scholars over whether the velayat-e faqih is valid or not. This 30 years cruel experiment will meet the end it deserves.
There is some speculation over whether it’s already nutjob (via his loyal Guards and militias) that is holding the strings over that old coot Khamenei. The roles may indeed have changed.
Nutjob is a puppet of the mullets, IMHO. If the Guards take over, he’ll either puppet for them or be pushed out.”
Nutjob was a long time member of the Guards, IIRC.
So, you think the Guards are already running the show?
If the military became the defacto head after this, I would think in some ways that may be worse. I would guess they would be foursquare behind fielding a nuke. Of course the regime would be completely illegitimate in the eyes of the world and perhaps this would be enough for our allies to move on true sanctions against Iran.
I’m sure Israel is on high alert status.
I agree with you, Ernest. I believe it’s been a long, slow time in its coming. I believe that the tipping point is now—that it’s the only future. The people have, in my opinion, displayed this to be.
It's turned from a mullah dictatorship protecting itself with the Guards to a Guards dictatorship hiding behind mullahs.
That's why news of dissent and division within the Guards is so interesting.
It’s a shame that the Iranians, whom we love to disparage, have more passion about THEIR government than we do about ours!!
Where are the protests in the street against the usurper’s occupation of the WH??
Sleep well mullahs,
The people will kill you when you sleep, when you go to the bathroom, when you do anything.
Sleep well tonight and fear the people.
It might be that with the Mullahs ‘neutered’, that Ahmedinijad will be left in complete control — or at least 1st Among Equals with a few IRCG commanders.
Ahmedinihad began his career as an unknown handpicked by the Mullahs. Like a pitcher who suddenly gives up a crucial homerun, the Mullahs may have stayed with him 1 election too long. They should have dumped his Twelver-@ss, but perhaps they couldn’t for some reason?
Mousavi - FULL NATIONAL STRIKE ANNOUNCED FOR TUESDAY - ALL IRAN - #Iranelection RT RT RT
Also, reports of fighting and shooting in Tehran
One problem with military dictatorship by the Guard -- there are two militaries, the Guard and the regular army. What will the army think about their likely future in such a situation?
I think you nailed it. Yes, there have been killings of protesters, but not as many as you would think. The continued reliance on tear gas & the baton makes me think that maybe, just maybe, Ahmedinijad doesn't want this thing put to bed just yet. Maybe these riots serve to advantage the IRGC in some perverse way by proving to the Mullahs that the game is up?
If Khameni jumps a plane to Switzerland the morning before the crackdown (rifle fire), that will go a long way to proving this theory.
If the Mullahs thought a repressive theocracy was difficult to manage, try escalating that to totalitarianism. In the former, the threat of God’s wrath is generally enough to keep the decent and pious people in line. In the latter, you must rely on your own wrath. It’s an incredibly labor intensive proposition, made harder with the level of technology that exists today. Even the Chinese abandoned it.
Probably the Iranian generals are a timid bunch. I wonder if there is a nucleus of majors & colonels who might make a move. It's a pretty common thing in the M-E. They might get a pliable general officer to front for them.
You have Nutjob and the mullahs pretty nervous now.
We stand in solidarity with you for freedom.
I’ve read the Guards have cut themselves into the graft in a very big way. They won’t want to give that up. ‘Course, if they’re like most corrupt dictatorships, the serious money is restrict to a few, so there could be many disgruntled folks inside the Guard. It’s gonna be interesting, alright.
Obama is a corrupt socialist scumbag, but he didn't steal the election. He got elected by his fellow corrupt socialist scumbags of which there are many in this country. We are not protesting because we elected the government we deserve, or at least the government our fellow countrymen deserve. Wait until Obama tears up the constitution, then we will have something to protest.
I guess you missed his government takeover of private insurance companies, publicly held automobile manufacturers, banks and financial institutions and setting executive salaries.
I've looked through MY copyt of the Constitution several times and have failed to see where the government has the authority to do these things.
but he didn't steal the election.
Really!!?? Where's the birth certificate??
Thugs don’t relinquish power easily and that’s all the Mullahs are...power hungry thugs. We are witnessing an example of what happens to a people without the right to keep and bear arms. When the means of overthrowing a tyrannical state have been taken away, you have to depend upon the munificence of your masters.
“a conspiracy against Iran.”
Um - - - that’s what the big Mullahs are.
I think that depends on which side they take. The time for that decision is now.
monday wrote: “Obama is a corrupt socialist scumbag, but he didn’t steal the election. “
Yep. It's in the wee hours of the morning.
The next 18 hours should be interesting.
Don’t go to the streets to meet the soldiers!!!
Wait till they tire & go home thinking that the revolutionaries aren’t coming!!
THEN AFTER THEY’RE GONE, GO TO THE STREETS!!!
Find out where the Mullahs live. Post their addresses etc etc. You’ve GOT TO GET TO THEM.
Don’t let them live behind WALLED & SAFE PLACES.
If they go to a MOSQUE, do what you have to.
REMEMBER, the Mullahs don’t decide who gets the VIRGINS!!!
Started by Bush, and they came to him with their hands out begging to be taken over. When he starts nationalizing solvent business and expropriating private property I will be one of the first on the streets.
“Really!!?? Where's the birth certificate??”
Good question, but even if he is technically disqualified from being elected president, the people still voted for him. He didn't steal the election, unlike in Iran. The morons in this country gave it to him.
You need to face reality. You and I and others in this country who think Obama is a corrupt socialist @sshat, are in the minority. If and when the majority come to that realization, then will be the time to protest.
Not according to the latest polls. As I predicted last winter, people are catching on to what kind of fraud zero is and it is occurring within the timeframe I predicted.
This fall isn't looking too good for him and the Dem Congress!
Interesting observation. An army has to eat, an army needs supplies.....a general strike effectively shuts down, food, transportation....etc. How long can strikers stop the country...? They either start marching Iranians people out as slaves......or the mullahs lose.
BUMP BUMP BUMP, Allegra! Hope all is well with you, and THANKS for all you do!
I just found this on twitter- it is a gruesome new video of more young people shot and dying.