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IRAN: Endgame?
Hot Air ^ | June 22, 2009 8:46 am | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 06/22/2009 12:44:02 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

The moment of truth has come in Iran.  The Guardian Council and Ali Khamenei have played their last card — and it might be a trump.  The Revolutionary Guard has now threatened to meet the protestors in the streets and give them a “revolutionary confrontation”:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is threatening to crush any further opposition protests over the disputed presidential election and warns demonstrators to prepare for a “revolutionary confrontation” if they take to the streets again.

The country’s most powerful military force ordered demonstrators to “end the sabotage and rioting activities” and said their resistance is a “conspiracy” against Iran.

A statement posted Monday on the Guard’s website warned protesters to “be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation with the Guards, Basij and other security forces and disciplinary forces.”

The mullahs have given up on the police and Basijis alone.  The Friday warning from Ali Khamenei, the prince formerly known as the divine and Supreme Leader, did nothing to stop Iranians from filling the streets this weekend.  Increasing brutality from the Basijis and police resulted in hundreds of arrests, dozens of deaths, and one national martyr for the opposition, but no end to the protests.  The police and Basijis have failed to put Iranians back in their place as subjects, and the only option left is a military operation to clear the streets.

If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete.  The mullahs will have no credibility with the people and will remain completely reliant on its army to maintain power internally.  The Revolutionary Guard will understand this well, and will quickly turn Khamenei and his elders into nothing more than puppets for the Guard’s purposes.  The question then will be whether the Guard can maintain control over 70 million Iranians who have already lost faith in their theocrats and never assented to rule by military force.

That assumes the Revolutionary Guard will remain cohesive.  Their senior leadership will see this as a way to grab power, but the rank and file may find it difficult to go to war with their own people, especially against Iranians protesting an election that the Revolutionary Guard considers stolen from one of their own.  Will the Revolutionary Guard maintain cohesion as they march into Iran’s cities and kill women and children?  The fact that the mullahs have to play this card makes the question all the more critical.

Update: Unconfirmed reports have the opposition calling for a general strike of indeterminate length starting tomorrow.  That will be difficult for a military operation to counter, and will further undermine the mullahs, if successful.

Update II: Allahpundit retweets a report from Tehran that claims the streets have gone quiet today, with Basiji and police patrolling in large numbers.  The strike may be the next phase, if it’s true and it’s successful.


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: greenrevolution; iran; iranviolence2009; khamenei; khameneibrownshirts; revolutionaryguard

1 posted on 06/22/2009 12:44:03 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: NormsRevenge; Marine_Uncle; SolidWood; Straight Vermonter; G8 Diplomat; Man50D; SunkenCiv; ...

fyi


2 posted on 06/22/2009 12:44:40 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete.

Knew this would happen. Ahmadinejad made it clear during his first term he was all about two things - complete control internally and nuclear tech development.


3 posted on 06/22/2009 12:46:14 PM PDT by rjp2005 (Lord have mercy on us)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

bttt


4 posted on 06/22/2009 12:47:02 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: rjp2005

I believe the Mullahs are now out of power...


5 posted on 06/22/2009 12:47:55 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

And in the red corner....weighing in at...


6 posted on 06/22/2009 12:50:25 PM PDT by wolfcreek (KMTEXASA!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I believe the Mullahs are now out of power...

Dream on...

7 posted on 06/22/2009 12:51:49 PM PDT by Riodacat (Legum servi sumus ut liberi esse possimus.)
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To: rjp2005

It’s funny how all dictators seem to play from the same book. Mao Tse-Tung would be proud.


8 posted on 06/22/2009 12:52:14 PM PDT by razeislam_crushthedems
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To: rjp2005
Nutjob is a puppet of the mullets, IMHO. If the Guards take over, he'll either puppet for them or be pushed out.
9 posted on 06/22/2009 12:52:55 PM PDT by colorado tanker ("Lastly, I'd like to apologize for America's disproportionate response to Pearl Harbor . . . ")
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To: rjp2005
Henchmen also die.

The mullah regime is on it's way out.

Keep in mind that the wordly rule of mullahs is non-traditional and even contradictionary to Shia Islam. The "velayat-e faqih" as the rule of a mullah is called, is a recent invention of Khomeini and likeminded mullahs who weren't even "top tiers". It combines a islamic ideology with a Soviet "republican" dictatorship.

There is much controversy among mullah scholars over whether the velayat-e faqih is valid or not. This 30 years cruel experiment will meet the end it deserves.

10 posted on 06/22/2009 12:53:07 PM PDT by SolidWood (Down with the islamic regime! Freedom for Iran!)
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To: colorado tanker

There is some speculation over whether it’s already nutjob (via his loyal Guards and militias) that is holding the strings over that old coot Khamenei. The roles may indeed have changed.


11 posted on 06/22/2009 12:54:26 PM PDT by SolidWood (Down with the islamic regime! Freedom for Iran!)
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To: colorado tanker

Nutjob is a puppet of the mullets, IMHO. If the Guards take over, he’ll either puppet for them or be pushed out.”

Nutjob was a long time member of the Guards, IIRC.


12 posted on 06/22/2009 12:56:08 PM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
From what I have heard the only way to stop the military takeover is a nation wide strike. This evidently is what brought the Shah down.
13 posted on 06/22/2009 12:59:54 PM PDT by Uncle Hal
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To: ridesthemiles; SolidWood

So, you think the Guards are already running the show?


14 posted on 06/22/2009 1:03:41 PM PDT by colorado tanker ("Lastly, I'd like to apologize for America's disproportionate response to Pearl Harbor . . . ")
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

If the military became the defacto head after this, I would think in some ways that may be worse. I would guess they would be foursquare behind fielding a nuke. Of course the regime would be completely illegitimate in the eyes of the world and perhaps this would be enough for our allies to move on true sanctions against Iran.


15 posted on 06/22/2009 1:04:31 PM PDT by Old Teufel Hunden
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To: colorado tanker

I’m sure Israel is on high alert status.


16 posted on 06/22/2009 1:08:13 PM PDT by unkus
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I agree with you, Ernest. I believe it’s been a long, slow time in its coming. I believe that the tipping point is now—that it’s the only future. The people have, in my opinion, displayed this to be.


17 posted on 06/22/2009 1:08:17 PM PDT by Miss Behave ("WE WANT FREEDOM!")
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To: colorado tanker
I think so. Khamenei has cancer and is a senile old coot. Nutjob is the Chavez-like frontman of a gang of Guards Generals and nepotists who have Khamenei at their mercy IMHO.

It's turned from a mullah dictatorship protecting itself with the Guards to a Guards dictatorship hiding behind mullahs.

That's why news of dissent and division within the Guards is so interesting.

18 posted on 06/22/2009 1:10:53 PM PDT by SolidWood (Down with the islamic regime! Freedom for Iran!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

It’s a shame that the Iranians, whom we love to disparage, have more passion about THEIR government than we do about ours!!

Where are the protests in the street against the usurper’s occupation of the WH??


19 posted on 06/22/2009 1:11:05 PM PDT by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Sleep well mullahs,
The people will kill you when you sleep, when you go to the bathroom, when you do anything.
Sleep well tonight and fear the people.


20 posted on 06/22/2009 1:15:29 PM PDT by Joe Boucher
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To: colorado tanker

It might be that with the Mullahs ‘neutered’, that Ahmedinijad will be left in complete control — or at least 1st Among Equals with a few IRCG commanders.

Ahmedinihad began his career as an unknown handpicked by the Mullahs. Like a pitcher who suddenly gives up a crucial homerun, the Mullahs may have stayed with him 1 election too long. They should have dumped his Twelver-@ss, but perhaps they couldn’t for some reason?


21 posted on 06/22/2009 1:16:41 PM PDT by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Latest from PersianKiwi: CORRECTION & CONFIRM - National Strike announced by Mousavi for TUESDAY (now it is Tuesday in Iran)

Mousavi - FULL NATIONAL STRIKE ANNOUNCED FOR TUESDAY - ALL IRAN - #Iranelection RT RT RT

Also, reports of fighting and shooting in Tehran

22 posted on 06/22/2009 1:19:44 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money -- Thatcher)
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To: rjp2005
If the Revolutionary Guard makes good on its threat, the transition to military dictatorship will be complete.

One problem with military dictatorship by the Guard -- there are two militaries, the Guard and the regular army. What will the army think about their likely future in such a situation?

23 posted on 06/22/2009 1:23:13 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money -- Thatcher)
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To: SolidWood
It's turned from a mullah dictatorship protecting itself with the Guards to a Guards dictatorship hiding behind mullahs.

I think you nailed it. Yes, there have been killings of protesters, but not as many as you would think. The continued reliance on tear gas & the baton makes me think that maybe, just maybe, Ahmedinijad doesn't want this thing put to bed just yet. Maybe these riots serve to advantage the IRGC in some perverse way by proving to the Mullahs that the game is up?

If Khameni jumps a plane to Switzerland the morning before the crackdown (rifle fire), that will go a long way to proving this theory.

24 posted on 06/22/2009 1:24:36 PM PDT by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

If the Mullahs thought a repressive theocracy was difficult to manage, try escalating that to totalitarianism. In the former, the threat of God’s wrath is generally enough to keep the decent and pious people in line. In the latter, you must rely on your own wrath. It’s an incredibly labor intensive proposition, made harder with the level of technology that exists today. Even the Chinese abandoned it.


25 posted on 06/22/2009 1:26:09 PM PDT by Repealthe17thAmendment (Is this field required?)
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To: PapaBear3625
What will the army think about their likely future in such a situation?

Probably the Iranian generals are a timid bunch. I wonder if there is a nucleus of majors & colonels who might make a move. It's a pretty common thing in the M-E. They might get a pliable general officer to front for them.

26 posted on 06/22/2009 1:27:45 PM PDT by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Hang in there, Iranians. Stand tall.

You have Nutjob and the mullahs pretty nervous now.

We stand in solidarity with you for freedom.

Godspeed, Iran.

27 posted on 06/22/2009 1:31:26 PM PDT by Allegra ( Iran Azadi!)
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To: SolidWood

I’ve read the Guards have cut themselves into the graft in a very big way. They won’t want to give that up. ‘Course, if they’re like most corrupt dictatorships, the serious money is restrict to a few, so there could be many disgruntled folks inside the Guard. It’s gonna be interesting, alright.


28 posted on 06/22/2009 1:31:31 PM PDT by colorado tanker ("Lastly, I'd like to apologize for America's disproportionate response to Pearl Harbor . . . ")
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To: DustyMoment
“Where are the protests in the street against the usurper’s occupation of the WH??”

Obama is a corrupt socialist scumbag, but he didn't steal the election. He got elected by his fellow corrupt socialist scumbags of which there are many in this country. We are not protesting because we elected the government we deserve, or at least the government our fellow countrymen deserve. Wait until Obama tears up the constitution, then we will have something to protest.

29 posted on 06/22/2009 1:31:51 PM PDT by monday
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I believe the Mullahs are now out of power

No, they are not. As a matter of fact, they will hold on through grim death, no matter what the protesters do. Only the Rev Guard can remove them, and it's still unclear what their intentions are right now.
30 posted on 06/22/2009 1:32:04 PM PDT by reagan_fanatic (When you put Democrats in charge, stupid things happen)
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To: Tallguy
We just don't have very good intel from inside that regime, do we? And even if we did, CIA would never release info that might contradict Zero's coddle the Mullahs policy.
31 posted on 06/22/2009 1:34:05 PM PDT by colorado tanker ("Lastly, I'd like to apologize for America's disproportionate response to Pearl Harbor . . . ")
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To: monday
Wait until Obama tears up the constitution, then we will have something to protest.

I guess you missed his government takeover of private insurance companies, publicly held automobile manufacturers, banks and financial institutions and setting executive salaries.

I've looked through MY copyt of the Constitution several times and have failed to see where the government has the authority to do these things.

but he didn't steal the election.

Really!!?? Where's the birth certificate??

32 posted on 06/22/2009 1:39:07 PM PDT by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Thugs don’t relinquish power easily and that’s all the Mullahs are...power hungry thugs. We are witnessing an example of what happens to a people without the right to keep and bear arms. When the means of overthrowing a tyrannical state have been taken away, you have to depend upon the munificence of your masters.


33 posted on 06/22/2009 1:42:02 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax (AGENDA OF THE LEFT EXPOSED)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

“a “conspiracy” against Iran.”

Um - - - that’s what the big Mullahs are.


34 posted on 06/22/2009 1:43:53 PM PDT by RoadTest (For there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus - I Tim 2:5)
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To: PapaBear3625
What will the army think about their likely future in such a situation?

I think that depends on which side they take. The time for that decision is now.

35 posted on 06/22/2009 1:55:00 PM PDT by Allegra ( Iran Azadi!)
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To: monday

monday wrote: “Obama is a corrupt socialist scumbag, but he didn’t steal the election. “

Agree completely.


36 posted on 06/22/2009 1:58:07 PM PDT by Reverend Wright ("Bankruptcy is not a sign of weakness." B. H. Obama, May 2, 2009.)
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To: PapaBear3625
Latest from PersianKiwi: CORRECTION & CONFIRM - National Strike announced by Mousavi for TUESDAY (now it is Tuesday in Iran)

Yep. It's in the wee hours of the morning.

The next 18 hours should be interesting.

37 posted on 06/22/2009 1:58:30 PM PDT by Allegra ( Iran Azadi!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Don’t go to the streets to meet the soldiers!!!
Wait till they tire & go home thinking that the revolutionaries aren’t coming!!
THEN AFTER THEY’RE GONE, GO TO THE STREETS!!!
Find out where the Mullahs live. Post their addresses etc etc. You’ve GOT TO GET TO THEM.
Don’t let them live behind WALLED & SAFE PLACES.
If they go to a MOSQUE, do what you have to.
REMEMBER, the Mullahs don’t decide who gets the VIRGINS!!!


38 posted on 06/22/2009 1:59:47 PM PDT by noah (noah)
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To: DustyMoment
“I guess you missed his government takeover of private insurance companies, publicly held automobile manufacturers, banks and financial institutions and setting executive salaries.”

Started by Bush, and they came to him with their hands out begging to be taken over. When he starts nationalizing solvent business and expropriating private property I will be one of the first on the streets.

“Really!!?? Where's the birth certificate??”

Good question, but even if he is technically disqualified from being elected president, the people still voted for him. He didn't steal the election, unlike in Iran. The morons in this country gave it to him.

You need to face reality. You and I and others in this country who think Obama is a corrupt socialist @sshat, are in the minority. If and when the majority come to that realization, then will be the time to protest.

39 posted on 06/22/2009 2:01:09 PM PDT by monday
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To: monday
You and I and others in this country who think Obama is a corrupt socialist @sshat, are in the minority.

Not according to the latest polls. As I predicted last winter, people are catching on to what kind of fraud zero is and it is occurring within the timeframe I predicted.

This fall isn't looking too good for him and the Dem Congress!

40 posted on 06/22/2009 2:25:56 PM PDT by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
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To: DustyMoment
Hey lay off!!! We had a riot because the Lakers won. What more do you want? /s
41 posted on 06/22/2009 2:29:00 PM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (Nemo me impune lacessit)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; SolidWood

42 posted on 06/22/2009 2:38:18 PM PDT by Allegra ( Iran Azadi!)
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To: reagan_fanatic
Only the Rev Guard can remove them, and it's still unclear what their intentions are right now.

Interesting observation. An army has to eat, an army needs supplies.....a general strike effectively shuts down, food, transportation....etc. How long can strikers stop the country...? They either start marching Iranians people out as slaves......or the mullahs lose.

43 posted on 06/22/2009 3:02:47 PM PDT by ScreamingFist
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To: Allegra

BUMP BUMP BUMP, Allegra! Hope all is well with you, and THANKS for all you do!


44 posted on 06/22/2009 3:15:00 PM PDT by Miss Behave ("WE WANT FREEDOM!")
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I see at this IranTracker exactly the stuff I just blabed about in another post. Shut the damn country down. Make it known, the people will now determine what happens and what does not. Let more of the IRGC forces decide if they want to go in with the regular military forces and police forces that will eventually move over to the people's side.
I would bet a dime, there are many older and not so old military folk that would love to see all the Mad Dog types purged from their midst along with the Bearded ones ran out of the country, or forced to stay in Qom and just play Islamic religion practices, say sit around and read their books and beat their wives when they feel frustrated.
If we start getting solid news that the regular military branches will not let Mad Dog and his bearded masters play any more games, then the Iranian citizens just might have a new lease on life. One with the right type of westernized thinking leaders to step in and make them a good neighbor in their region as well as restoring a position within the world community.
Of course the reality that some twenty or more million older folks are still mostly ill-educated and living in their little world of socialism. How will they act. Will there be a real full blown civil war in due time.
Dictator regimes world over must be following these events with concern.
45 posted on 06/22/2009 7:01:30 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Obama must be making huge piles of cigarette butts around the WH grounds at this point.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I just found this on twitter- it is a gruesome new video of more young people shot and dying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npdISZUtdmU


46 posted on 06/22/2009 7:04:06 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Perhaps it is time for some here to help me post the following CSPAN one hour session on a reporter roundup listening to the Shah of Iran's son, fmr. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi
HERE.
Where the CSPAN title is: Shah's Son Says Iran Unrest Threatens Clerical Rule.
Reza answers a lot of questions regarding how this growing movement by the people is developing, and why.
As suspected by some of us. It is much more then simply a frustration of voter fraud in his opinion. But one of long term dissatisfication with the clergy ruling over them where the people know according to their Shia background the clergy have no right to rule over them.
Also the long term failure to raise their standard of living, and suppression of basic human rights. In short many feel they live in a police state with no hope.
I'll let it go at that. Draw your own conclusions.
47 posted on 06/22/2009 8:31:15 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Obama must be making huge piles of cigarette butts around the WH grounds at this point.)
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