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2010 Senate Elections: 8 Democratic Incumbents Approval Below 50%
various polls ^ | 7/2/09 | Dangus

Posted on 07/02/2009 8:20:16 PM PDT by dangus

Blanche Lincoln, AR 45% Public Policy Polling, March Barbara Boxer, CA 48% Survey USA, June 12-14 Michael Bennet, CO 34% Public Policy Polling, April 24-26 (trails Rep. Beauprez) Christopher Dodd, CO 37% Quinnipiac, April (trails several) Roland Burris, IL 17% Public Policy Polling, April 24-26 (likely to lose primary) Harry Reid, NV 34% Mason-Dixon, June 18-19 Kirsten Gillenbrand, NY 24% Marist (disapproval rating also below 50%) Byron Dorgan, ND (only poll in this red state was commissioned by DailyKOS)

Also in possible danger but above 50% approval: Daniel Inouye, HI leads Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, but he'll be 86, and may not campaign well Arlen Specter, PA (could face bruising primary)

No cherry-picking! All polls were most recent major-media polls, not just the most favorable.


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections; US: Connecticut; US: Nevada; US: New York; US: North Dakota; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 111th; 2009polls; boxer; burris; dodd; dorgan; gillenbrand; michaelbennet; reid
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The GOP can win back the House in 2010. They will NOT win back the Senate. To do so, they would have to win 29 out of 34 Senate seats. But they can win enough to derail the Democrat's agenda, and build a strong base of support to win a strong majority in 2012, when it'll be the Democrat's turn to defend a huge number of seats.
1 posted on 07/02/2009 8:20:16 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

More readable:
Blanche Lincoln, AR 45% Public Policy Polling, March
Barbara Boxer, CA 48% Survey USA, June 12-14
Michael Bennet, CO 34% Public Policy Polling, April 24-26 (trails Rep. Beauprez)
Christopher Dodd, CO 37% Quinnipiac, April (trails several)
Roland Burris, IL 17% Public Policy Polling, April 24-26 (likely to lose primary)
Harry Reid, NV 34% Mason-Dixon, June 18-19
Kirsten Gillenbrand, NY 24% Marist, June (disapproval rating also below 50%)
Byron Dorgan, ND (only poll in this red state was commissioned by DailyKOS)

Possible danger
Daniel Inouye, HI leads Republican Gov. Linda Lingle, but he’ll be 86, and may not campaign well
Arlen Specter, PA (could face bruising primary)


2 posted on 07/02/2009 8:21:05 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
Barbara Boxer, CA 48%
The only problem is the moribund CA GOP is unable to field an electable candidate, or even mount a statewide campaign.
 
3 posted on 07/02/2009 8:23:45 PM PDT by counterpunch (In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem.)
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To: dangus

Sadly we are a broken party. Our organization is shot. It will take years to rebuild back to where we were at 2004. Too much infighting right now. Witness the saga over Steve Schmindt releasing e-mails of Sarah Palin.


4 posted on 07/02/2009 8:23:48 PM PDT by yongin
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To: dangus

I predict that the Neg gain in the senate will be anywhere between 4 and 7.

I predict that the gain in the house will be 35-38.

There will be a Dem Majority in both places, but there will likely be a major tug of war for all sides.


5 posted on 07/02/2009 8:24:31 PM PDT by ThePanFromJapan (She's the everyday woman. Vote Sarah Palin 2012.)
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To: yongin

well demoralization is gonna help alot,,is that your thought.


6 posted on 07/02/2009 8:24:37 PM PDT by cajungirl (no)
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To: dangus

WOOT WOOT!!! Pinky Reid at 34%!!!!


7 posted on 07/02/2009 8:26:19 PM PDT by BossLady ("WE are the origin of all coming evil" ~~ Carl Jung~~)
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To: yongin
Actually, no. We need to be in shape by Feb, Mar of 09.

In addition to that, Osamabama will give us PLENTY of ammunition. The solid Ds will still vote D, but the swings, the votes that decide elections, are getting very tired of him already.

8 posted on 07/02/2009 8:27:05 PM PDT by MindBender26 (The Hellfire Missile is one of the wonderful ways God shows us he loves American Soldiers & Marines)
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To: dangus

You forgot Deleware.


9 posted on 07/02/2009 8:28:19 PM PDT by LdSentinal
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To: cajungirl; yongin

I’m not even sure that being a “broken” party is a bad thing. Last times the Republican Party was in as much disarray as they’ll be in 2010 were 1978 and 1994. Not bad years for conservatism. Cocky insiders are far worse than scrappy fighters.


10 posted on 07/02/2009 8:28:48 PM PDT by dangus
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To: counterpunch

I agree. Let’s forget about Boxer in this blue state.


11 posted on 07/02/2009 8:32:02 PM PDT by max americana
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To: dangus

Unseating Dodd and ousting Specter will be major accomplishments.


12 posted on 07/02/2009 8:32:11 PM PDT by bobjam
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To: dangus

Also we have our own open Senate seats ripe for Dem pickup.

Missouri
Ohio
New Hampshire
Florida

The Senate does not look good. I am more optimistic with the House and Governorships. Haley Barbour did say a few months ago, GOP renewal will occur at the Governorships.


13 posted on 07/02/2009 8:32:26 PM PDT by yongin
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To: LdSentinal

Talk to me about Delaware. I didn’t forget; I had no data and figured it was Democratic lock. If you have anything to share, please do so. Do you think RINO Castle has any competition? Is he better than Minner, even if he is a RINO? I’m counting RINOs in Connecticut, Illinois and New York as potential pick-ups, so I could count Castle. Do you have any polls?


14 posted on 07/02/2009 8:32:34 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

Any idea why Gillebrand is doing so poorly when she has been in office only a short while?

Hopefully the reason is something other than “not liberal enough for New York.”

I’d love for the GOP to take that seat, but if not, I’d prefer Gillebrand to Maloney.


15 posted on 07/02/2009 8:32:41 PM PDT by freespirited (Is this a nation of laws or a nation of Democrats? -- Charles Krauthammer)
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To: dangus

I am suspicious of the broken party refrain I am seeing on threads. And the constant condemnation of people in the party,,it feels subversive. LIke people are trying to gin up defections to a third party or hopelessness.

I think O is going to present a wonderful opportunity for a grand slam next year. ANd if we allow fractures to happen over inability to have a big tent, we won’t capitalize on it.

THe constant refrain of throw out the rinos, the pop off remarks about anyone who is not enamored with a particular candidate, the insults, etc. All designed to foment hopelessness and ill feelings.

I personally think that anyone would be better than Obama. Even McCain would have been better. And those who insist on their candidate, who threaten not to vote, who insult and act like thugs to people who support someone else do nothing but cause us to lose.

End of rant.


16 posted on 07/02/2009 8:34:28 PM PDT by cajungirl (no)
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To: LdSentinal

Actually I DID find this: Public Policy Polling puts Castle over Atty General Joseph Biden, Jr., the presumptive nominee. Of course, I’m not sure I’d not rather have a Democrat than a Republican. RINOs mean taking the blame but still not being able to govern.


17 posted on 07/02/2009 8:34:45 PM PDT by dangus
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To: freespirited

I was careful to mention Gillebrand’s negatives are also below 50%, but they are higher than her positives. I think liberals don’t trust her because she used to be for gun rights, fighting illegal immigration, etc. Conservatives don’t like her because she is no longer for gun rights, fighting illegal immigration, etc. I think if liberals were counted as supporting her over a Republican candidate, she would certainly be over 50%.


18 posted on 07/02/2009 8:38:17 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

I think six of these elections will likely go to Republicans...both Dodd and Spector are gone. I also think that the Hawaii magic of Inouye will finally be used up. The curious races will be Burris in IL and Lincoln in Ark...neither have much popularity. I suspect at the last minute...that our guy “Huck” will be running in Arkansas and easily win. There just aren’t any big-name Republicans left in IL that stand out at this point.


19 posted on 07/02/2009 8:40:23 PM PDT by pepsionice
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To: counterpunch

So then you find a candidate, and run them (with help from the establishment where you can find it, but without if they are unwilling or unable to help): I think the tea party movement is building a good opportunity..


20 posted on 07/02/2009 8:40:59 PM PDT by JSDude1 (DHS, FBI, FEMA, etc have been bad little boys. They need to be spanked and sent to timeout!)
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To: counterpunch

So then you find a candidate, and run them (with help from the establishment where you can find it, but without if they are unwilling or unable to help): I think the tea party movement is building a good opportunity..


21 posted on 07/02/2009 8:41:07 PM PDT by JSDude1 (DHS, FBI, FEMA, etc have been bad little boys. They need to be spanked and sent to timeout!)
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To: dangus

That makes sense. No one likes those sudden changes of heart.


22 posted on 07/02/2009 8:42:25 PM PDT by freespirited (Is this a nation of laws or a nation of Democrats? -- Charles Krauthammer)
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To: dangus
Blanche Lincoln, AR

Doable, if the GOP picks the right candidate. Junior Senator from Arkansas might just be Huckabee's niche....

Barbara Boxer, CA

Won't happen.

Michael Bennet, CO

Definitely a possibility. I am not convinced that Colorado is really as purple as many seem to think it is. Depends on turnout in Colorado Springs and the Eastern slope.

Christopher Dodd, CO

This one looks to be shaping up good for us. Granted, Dodd will be replaced by a RINO, but that's about all you're gonna get from CT. I'd rather a RINO than a Dem. At least we get numbers with a RINO.

Roland Burris, IL

Burris will probably be replaced, but it will be by another hand-picked Friend of Obama.

Harry Reid, NV

Doable.

Kirsten Gillenbrand, NY

I wouldn't bank on taking Gillibrand down, not in left-wing NY.

Byron Dorgan, ND

Probably not. Thought ND is a red state, Dorgan brings home the bacon, and he's been there forever. Every six years, we think we can unseat him, and every six years, he rolls back to Washington.

Daniel Inouye, HI

Possibility. Lingle is a RINO, but the Connecticut rule applies.

Arlen Specter, PA

If Toomey is the GOP nominee, and if Specter's primary really is as bruising as people think it will be, then this is a good chance for a pickup. Especially once the people of PA find out that he's a Paulician.

23 posted on 07/02/2009 8:50:31 PM PDT by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (We bury Democrats face down so that when they scratch, they get closer to home.)
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To: ThePanFromJapan
I expect 50 of the Dems in the House will be defeated.
24 posted on 07/02/2009 8:53:21 PM PDT by Kansas58
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To: dangus

Don’t worry, the GOP will figure out how to screw it up. Sigh, all right, all right, I’ll try to be more positive.


25 posted on 07/02/2009 8:57:26 PM PDT by TheWasteLand
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To: cajungirl
I am suspicious of the broken party refrain I am seeing on threads. And the constant condemnation of people in the party,,it feels subversive.

I understand your frustration. But we must be realistic if we want to make anything better.

The party is broken. Period. And it will stay broken as long as the RINOs and libs run it. Is the party learning anything now? Well, we have Mitch [no stones] McConnell endorsing Charlie [the ersatz Republican] Crist for the Senate. Hell's bells, these guys are from the same club that got us where we are now. Just what we need, more McCains, McConnells, and their ilk. Jeez, we practically had to storm McConnell's office with pitchforks to get him to come out against amnesty. And even then he didn't do that until the last moment. Michael Steele certainly hasn't fired up the base. We have Megan McCain running around sounding like she is a paid lobbyist for the DNC and no one in the party has the guts to criticize her. Assuming anyone actually disagrees or cares. We have major Republican members of the Senate publicly saying they believe The Wise Latina is a bad jurist but that they will still vote for her.

And you wonder why some of us nearly puke when we say GOP?

26 posted on 07/02/2009 8:58:28 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s........you weren't really there)
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To: max americana

I don’t know about forgetting about Boxer.
I think the answer is for the CA GOP to get its act together for the first time in 15+ years.

Last time Boxer was up for reelection was during the overheated 2004 election. Perhaps nothing could have stopped her reelection in a state that saw Bush lose by over a million votes.

But it also did not help that the GOP had nominated Bill Jones — with a primary election endorsement from Governor Schwarzenegger. Bill Jones was completely MIA on the trail, he had no state wide media campaign, and his election web site looked like something hosted on Geocities and had a message about opposing abortion in large font as its central theme in a state that is overwhelmingly pro-abortion.

There were better candidates that could have defeated Boxer, at least in an off year election, Toni Casey and Rosario Martin chief among them. Casey in particular would have been an attractive candidate for CA voters, with her pro-choice stance and pro-business background. She would have been a better fit for Schwarzengger’s endorsement, too. But he chose to play the typical party insider politics.

If the CA GOP nominates someone like Casey this time around, we could have a real shot of defeating Boxer. But that isn’t likely to happen with this state Republican party. Instead, expect yet another candidate who rails about abortion and little else.
That’s just the way the CA GOP rolls. And why they are almost non-existent. The hardcore pro-lifers are all that are left, and they make sure to keep it that way.

This isn’t an attack on pro-life values, mind you, but the unavoidable fact here is that California is not Idaho, and if the California Republican party keeps acting like it is, they are going to continue to be irrelevant in this state.


27 posted on 07/02/2009 9:00:46 PM PDT by counterpunch (In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem.)
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To: dangus

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=3CAX3aJCoDg


28 posted on 07/02/2009 9:02:55 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: counterpunch

Meg Whitman is running for Governor. Isn’t one of McCain’s business advisers, Carla Fiornia of Hewitt Packard, running against Boxer? Of course, the Tom McClintock fans will insist that he can crush Boxer.


29 posted on 07/02/2009 9:05:56 PM PDT by yongin
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To: counterpunch
Maybe the candidate you mention was a bad candidate.

However, you do not understand politics, or the abortion issue, if you truly believe that the abortion issue EVER hurts the prolife candidate.

Even in California, the majority of the voters:

Oppose taxpayer financed abortions.

Want parents to be involved in the abortion decisions of their minor children.

Oppose late term abortions.

Would support a complete ban on abortion, except in cases of rape, incest or real threat to the live of the mother.

These are facts.

You are trying to push the old, FALSE myth that being prolife hurts a politician, with the voters.

Nothing could be further from the truth!

In fact, less than 20% of the voters even vote “one issue” on the abortion issue.

Of those “one issue” abortion voters, the prolife candidate almost always enjoys about a 4 point advantage over the pro choice candidate.

This is true EVERYWHERE -—

Even in California.

30 posted on 07/02/2009 9:06:40 PM PDT by Kansas58
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To: dangus; All

Those on this list are good candidates for calls when the Senate takes up Cap and Trade and Healthcare, particularly from those that vote in those states.


31 posted on 07/02/2009 9:11:26 PM PDT by Binghamton_native
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To: dangus

There is a major flaw here. Nobody polled the cemeteries or ACORN. Sad to say, all these Dim scumbags will probably win unless Republicans get EVERY Republican out to vote! We gotta do it!!!!


32 posted on 07/02/2009 9:15:04 PM PDT by Rembrandt
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To: Kansas58

Your facts are wrong about California, Kansas.
We’ve had parental notification on the ballot several times, and it has LOST every time.
It’s not even parental consent, mind you, just notification.
Your claim about supporting a complete ban on abortion except for rape, incest, or health is laughable. Have you ever even visited out state?
Geez.

Back in 1968 Governor Reagan signed California’s permissive abortion statutes into law, well ahead of Roe v. Wade. California is an abortion state and has been for 40 years. Those are the real facts.

And California may have a history of being an anti-tax state, but it has always also been a pro-spend state. Which explains why the state government is now issuing IOUs instead of checks. So are Californians really oppose to government financed abortions? Probably not, as long as we don’t get the bill for them.


33 posted on 07/02/2009 9:17:09 PM PDT by counterpunch (In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem.)
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To: dangus

Great, But the real key is to remove Bitch Pelosi!

The problem is what the “festered one’s” in San Francisco will do to get rid if this infestation!


34 posted on 07/02/2009 9:17:21 PM PDT by aShepard ("OK Class: repeat after me: "BUSH BAD- OBAMA SAVIOR OF MANKIND")
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To: yongin

I like Tom McClintock, but lets face it, the best he can do is win a reliably Republican House district. He barely beat a guy named Charlie Brown. Good grief!

Carly Fiorina could be a really good candidate against Boxer, particularly if she keeps it all about fiscal issues. Her name is even similar to California.

Right now she is “considering” a run against Boxer.
I really hope she does. This could be the first real hope Republicans have had in California since Pete Wilson.


35 posted on 07/02/2009 9:27:59 PM PDT by counterpunch (In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem.)
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To: dangus

Harry Reid. 34%.

Nice.

Hope that SOB goes down in flames.


36 posted on 07/02/2009 10:02:27 PM PDT by CriticalJ
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To: dangus

Boxer will be re-elected. The California voter has an IQ smaller than his/her hat size.


37 posted on 07/02/2009 10:06:25 PM PDT by Redleg Duke ("Sarah Palin...Unleashing the Fury of the Castrated Left!")
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To: dangus

I’m not following your math, but it’s late. 51 in the Senate is a majority. 60, that the D’s just achieved, is needed to avoid cloture. But at 51, either party has a majority, chairmanships, etc. How many vulnerable R’s are running in ‘10?


38 posted on 07/02/2009 10:10:24 PM PDT by EDINVA (A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul -- G. B. Shaw)
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To: dangus

The Dem Senate candidate in Delaware in ‘10 is going to be Beau Biden. I’ve read he trails in early polling, but imagine he’d pull it off in the end.

Minner was Joe Biden’s Chief of Staff who agreed to keep the seat warm for Beau while he was serving in Iraq, and promised not to run in ‘10.


39 posted on 07/02/2009 10:14:38 PM PDT by EDINVA (A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul -- G. B. Shaw)
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To: counterpunch
"The only problem is the moribund CA GOP is unable to field an electable candidate,"

Is Duncan Hunter unelectable statewide?

40 posted on 07/02/2009 10:42:14 PM PDT by matthew fuller (-- for the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really ashamed of my country.)
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To: counterpunch
Carly Fiorina could be a really good candidate against Boxer, particularly if she keeps it all about fiscal issues. Her name is even similar to California.

With the current financial climate in California Carly Fiorina might have a good chance against Boxer. This looks like it might be our best chance in years to make inroads in California.

41 posted on 07/02/2009 11:02:02 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: counterpunch
California is an abortion state and has been for 40 years. Those are the real facts.

Maybe it has been, but illegal aliens oppose abortion. With their votes, after amnesty is passed, abortion will go away!

42 posted on 07/02/2009 11:07:01 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla ("men of intemperate minds cannot be free. Their passions forge their fetters." -- Edmund Burke)
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To: yongin
Sadly we are a broken party. Our organization is shot.

So being a defeatist a full year and a half out is your strategy, eh?
43 posted on 07/02/2009 11:07:52 PM PDT by Antoninus (Queer is boring.)
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To: counterpunch
and had a message about opposing abortion in large font as its central theme in a state that is overwhelmingly pro-abortion.

The state is not "overwhelmingly pro-abortion". Get a grip. And besides, the number of people on the pro-abort side who are single issue voters is not significant.

The number of pro-life voters who will vote for a pro-abort under no circumstances, on the contrary, is much higher. This is why democrats in the past two election cycles have made a conscious effort to appear "pro-life" even when they have 100% approval ratings from NARAL.

Pro-abort is a net-loss position for a Democrat. And it's the kiss of death for a Republican.
44 posted on 07/02/2009 11:17:34 PM PDT by Antoninus (Queer is boring.)
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To: counterpunch
Again, look at the “single issue” voters.
When you talk about voting for a CANDIDATE in a representative Republic, it is a given that you will probably not agree, 100%, with what that candidate stands for.
Pro choicers have always been far more willing to vote for a prolifer, than prolifers have been to vote for a pro choicer.

Kansas has far more liberal abortion laws than California, that is why women used to come here, to Wichita, to get abortions.

Also, Ronald Reagan wrote a prolife book,

He was very prolife by the time he ran for President.

45 posted on 07/02/2009 11:45:41 PM PDT by Kansas58
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To: Kansas58

Ronald Reagan was always pro-life.
But California politics demands otherwise.
Reagan simply enacted the will of the people, like a good elected politician does in a representative democracy.

Reagan didn’t run on an anti-abortion platform.
Neither for Governor nor President.
He ran on other issues. He didn’t make abortion a central theme to his campaign the way so many politically tone deaf Republicans have done in California in recent elections.


46 posted on 07/02/2009 11:59:47 PM PDT by counterpunch (In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem.)
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To: LdSentinal

>>You forgot Deleware.<<

Who cares? Either we get a traitorous RINO in castle, or the first-born son of the Duke will inherit daddy’s seat.

Interesting question: Has there ever been a time in our history where a blood relative of the President or VP served in the House or Senate while the other relative was in office? Only one I can think of would be John Adams (Senate) and John Quincy Adams (President).


47 posted on 07/03/2009 2:39:35 AM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners.)
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To: EDINVA

>> How many vulnerable R’s are running in ‘10? <<

None; they are all retiring. There’s five open seats.

>> I’m not following your math, but it’s late. 51 in the Senate is a majority. 60, that the D’s just achieved, is needed to avoid cloture <<

That’s because I didn’t show any of my math. The GOP needs to pick up 11 seats; they have 40. They also have to defend 16 seats.


48 posted on 07/03/2009 3:57:43 AM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

The 16 they have to defend are in states where they have the best shot of doing so.

They need 11 for a majority in the Senate. I can state right now that they’re not gonna get it. But they’re gonna get enough so that the 2 RINOS (Snowe and Collins) cannot do damage.

The House and Governorships is where the bacon is gonna be made. I’ll give an example: Oregon’s unemployment rate is approaching 13%. The Dems have had the governor’s seat for the past 25 years, and the state house has been a supermajority in both houses for this session, with a Senate supermajority since I believe 2004. The Dems have taxed their way into a hole.

It’s just a matter of the OR GOP getting their butt in order and actually full-on supporting a conservative for the nominee instead of the RINO idiots like Kevin Mannix and Ron Saxton (the previous two nominees).


49 posted on 07/03/2009 4:15:52 AM PDT by ThePanFromJapan (She's the everyday woman. Vote Sarah Palin 2012.)
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To: cajungirl

I fully support your rant, especially the last paragraph.


50 posted on 07/03/2009 6:17:08 AM PDT by reformedliberal (Are we at high crimes or misdemeanors, yet?)
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