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Is the US Economy Close to Hitting Bottom? (The next bust is on its way)
Mises Institute ^ | 7/24/2009 | Frank Shostak

Posted on 07/26/2009 7:16:10 PM PDT by sickoflibs

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The Peter Schiff/Redistribution Watch Ping. (Washington Bankrupting our Nation by Spending your past, present and future money!)

If you realize both parties in Washington think our money is theirs and you trust them to do the wrong thing, this list is for you.

If you think there is a Santa Claus who is going to get elected in Washington and cut a few taxes and spend a few trillion and jump start the economy, and get our lost money back, this list is not for you.

You can read past posts by clicking on : schifflist , I try to tag all relevant threads with the keyword : schifflist.

Ping list pinged by sickoflibs.

To join the ping list: FReepmail sickoflibs with the subject line add Schifflist.

(Stop getting pings by sending the subject line drop Schifflist.)

1 posted on 07/26/2009 7:16:14 PM PDT by sickoflibs
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To: sickoflibs

I think that the past 6 to 8 months was just the tip of the iceberg a bigger and deeper collapse is coming I predict around the holidays IMHO


2 posted on 07/26/2009 7:18:24 PM PDT by al baby (Hi Mom ;))
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To: Harrius Magnus; mojitojoe; Pelham; mom2twinsn2; LongLiveTheRepublic; ConservativeOrBust; ...
The Peter Schiff/Redistribution Watch Ping. (Washington Bankrupting our Nation by Spending your past, present and future money!)

The future doesnt look pretty,

3 posted on 07/26/2009 7:19:01 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Socialist Conservatives: "'Big government is free because tax cuts pay for it'")
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To: sickoflibs

“Hence, we are doubtful that the US economy is on the verge of a solid economic recovery. On account of massive monetary pumping, the growth in momentum of various key economic data is likely to strengthen in the months ahead. We maintain this may prompt Fed policy makers to consider curtailing the pace of monetary pumping, and we suggest that this will set in motion a new economic bust.”

I believe this is true... We cannot believe the stats that we are getting... printing money that we cannot back up with gold is an idiot’s dream... and we have one in the wh


4 posted on 07/26/2009 7:20:47 PM PDT by bareford101
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To: djsherin; bamahead

Boom and bust ping!

Except I dont see much of a boom coming!


5 posted on 07/26/2009 7:20:53 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Socialist Conservatives: "'Big government is free because tax cuts pay for it'")
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To: sickoflibs

Small business is always the heart of job creation.
The Baraqqis are loading small business and entrepreneurs with added taxes and regulation.

As a retiree, I feel badly for those rendered jobless, but hope that the jobless issue will allow better election results in 2010. We have to stop the Baraqqi stampede.


6 posted on 07/26/2009 7:22:35 PM PDT by nascarnation
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To: sickoflibs

If the Marxist DemocRATS have their way, we’ve got a long way to go before we hit bottom. Once EVERYONE living in this country is dependent upon the government for their survival, we’ll know that we’ve finally bottomed out.


7 posted on 07/26/2009 7:23:43 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (I support the president. I'm just against his War On America!)
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To: sickoflibs

Someone is going to have to pay for the free lunch. When the one’s paying the free lunch can no longer afford to pay for the free loaders then is WTSHTF. The freeloaders and diverse individuals will turn to what they know best and that is looting and crime. I used to think that survivalists and preppies were oddballs but now with Obama and his Commies in power, the reality of that particular disaster situation IMO is closer than we think.


8 posted on 07/26/2009 7:26:21 PM PDT by vetvetdoug
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To: sickoflibs

9 posted on 07/26/2009 7:29:25 PM PDT by TSgt (I long for Norman Rockwell's America.)
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To: sickoflibs
Doom doom dooooom! You haven't listened to my pieties! Doooooooooom!!!

Now, when I am right and they are wrong, and the economy recovers anyway because that is simply want free capitalist economies do, no more remarkable than the sun coming up in the morning --- will any of these baying idiots shut up about it, or admit they were wrong?

This time next year the economy will be growing. Unemployment will be falling. The stock market will be higher.

The article and its purveyors pretend the reverse, and I am calling them on it right here, right now. They will be wrong. And one year from today, I want one freeper who believes this crap today, to admit he was wrong when it happens as I predict and not as this article does.

10 posted on 07/26/2009 7:30:36 PM PDT by JasonC
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To: sickoflibs

Confidence, confidence, confidence...they always leave that part out.

Banks are not lending, businesses are not hiring and the American people have lost confidence in the tax and spend government.

We will not a see turn around until 2010...after the House gets cleaned and Obama cries Uncle.

It is in a motion of the economy...sort of like a shark attack at the beach...people do NOT want to go into the water. Jaws is loose...his name is Obama and America has lost their confidence in him. Period.


11 posted on 07/26/2009 7:31:20 PM PDT by Shaka
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To: sickoflibs

Parasites are running the government...I expect the worst.


12 posted on 07/26/2009 7:31:22 PM PDT by blam
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To: sickoflibs

Our Company expects to be less than 18% below their highest marks. It’s a low tide but plans are moving forward.


13 posted on 07/26/2009 7:32:18 PM PDT by eyedigress
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To: sickoflibs

Bump to read later


14 posted on 07/26/2009 7:33:07 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: sickoflibs

When the hyperinflation caused by spending the trillions of dollars we don’t have hits, this year will be known as the good old days


15 posted on 07/26/2009 7:33:39 PM PDT by muir_redwoods ( How come when I press "1 for English" I still can't understand what's being said?)
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To: sickoflibs
Except I dont see much of a boom coming!

I do...

Lots of them... Lexington style!

16 posted on 07/26/2009 7:34:10 PM PDT by JDoutrider
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To: al baby

This will get worse. None of these jobs are coming back.

a) There is no demand now for all these products with the financial system in ruins worldwide.

b) Sometime during/after the internet revolution the US decided it was just fine to let 2 billion Chinese and Indian workers into our labor force. They’ll work for low, low wages for the next couple decades, manufacturing all the things that used to be made here.

Free trade in the long-run might work out fine. But the next 10-20 years are going to be a rough go.


17 posted on 07/26/2009 7:35:11 PM PDT by SteveAustin
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To: sickoflibs

i like mises


18 posted on 07/26/2009 7:41:23 PM PDT by 4rcane
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To: sickoflibs
Most experts and commentators are of the view that the worst of the US recession may be over by year's end.

At which point a trillion dollars of stimulus money starts hitting and makes things seem tolerable through the mid-term elections.

19 posted on 07/26/2009 7:44:39 PM PDT by fso301
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To: JasonC

RE “And one year from today, I want one freeper who believes this crap today, to admit he was wrong when it happens as I predict and not as this article does.”

How about 2-3 years out? You see that debt curve in reply #9 ? Remember all the rosy talk in 2004-2006 about the great economic growth?? Didnt work out too well did it? This time the debt is much bigger.


20 posted on 07/26/2009 7:51:25 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Socialist Conservatives: "'Big government is free because tax cuts pay for it'")
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To: fso301

RE “makes things seem tolerable through the mid-term elections. “

That is the plan!


21 posted on 07/26/2009 7:52:20 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Socialist Conservatives: "'Big government is free because tax cuts pay for it'")
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To: JasonC
Unemployment will be falling

Probably, but how far, and for how long?

Link: Meyer Sees No Return to ‘Full’ Employment Until 2015

The stock market will be higher.

Whoop dee doo, Goldman Sachs will make money as they prepare to steal money from us with the crap and trade scam.

22 posted on 07/26/2009 7:55:57 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Obama's multi- trillion dollar agenda would be a "man caused disaster")
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To: sickoflibs
"Is the US Economy Close to Hitting Bottom?"

No, because the problem was caused by globalism. The economy will get better, after we begin to produce again.


23 posted on 07/26/2009 7:56:49 PM PDT by familyop (Randian objectivism: it's all about me, me,...)
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To: JasonC
Now, when I am right and they are wrong, and the economy recovers anyway because that is simply want free capitalist economies do, ...

We don't have a free capitalist economy. And it gets further and further from that with each bill the socialists in DC push forward.

The article and its purveyors pretend the reverse, and I am calling them on it right here, right now. They will be wrong. And one year from today, I want one freeper who believes this crap today, to admit he was wrong when it happens as I predict and not as this article does.

Just as you will admit you were wrong if the economy is worse in one year?
24 posted on 07/26/2009 7:57:27 PM PDT by CottonBall
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To: sickoflibs

I have a headache reading all that.

http://craigslol.com/straight-male-seeks-obama-supporter-for-fair-physical-fight-m4m/


25 posted on 07/26/2009 8:01:14 PM PDT by Force of Truth (Yes political conservatives are libertarians. They want to have their rights and eat them too.)
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To: stephenjohnbanker

ping


26 posted on 07/26/2009 8:06:15 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Obama's multi- trillion dollar agenda would be a "man caused disaster")
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To: sickoflibs

Monday the Obama administration and China begin talks- namely on currency tensions, the US budget deficit and the massively huge trade gap with China. China, in addition to the hundreds of billions of low-cost, high-labor manufactured goods they?ve come to be known for; are importing 150 Chinese economic officials, in one of the largest visits ever to the United States.

http://www.zerohedge.com/


27 posted on 07/26/2009 8:11:21 PM PDT by katiekins1 (Obama=DickTater N Chief)
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; JasonC

The stock market is going up simply because so much money is created is a disincentive for savings, low interest rates just like 2002. Everything else being done now is anti-jobs.

At the gym today an Obama supporter told me that the rising stock market was recovery too. Imagine what dems would say if Bush were president and both the stock market and unemployment were rising.


28 posted on 07/26/2009 8:17:11 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Socialist Conservatives: "'Big government is free because tax cuts pay for it'")
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To: vetvetdoug
Funny you should mention "Free Lunch." I included that term in a vanity on the economy today.

Cheers!

29 posted on 07/26/2009 8:20:15 PM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: al baby
I think that the past 6 to 8 months was just the tip of the iceberg a bigger and deeper collapse is coming I predict around the holidays IMHO

I'm thinking you might be right. With the number of unemployed, both those receiving and not receiving benefits, the holidays may end up being a huge bust for retailers. Granted, the retailers don't even remotely understand supply and demand, with their typical increases in revenue year after year.

30 posted on 07/26/2009 8:20:21 PM PDT by voicereason (I Don't Need SEX...I Get Screwed By Democrats Everyday!!!)
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To: sickoflibs

Nowhere near. But it is headed that way and when it does the obama worshippers will be crying and bawling to go along with being homeless, jobless, and out of money and food to eat. But that is what they voted for.


31 posted on 07/26/2009 8:21:01 PM PDT by sport
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To: JasonC
when I am right and they are wrong, and the economy recovers anyway because that is simply want free capitalist economies do

What is this "free capitalist economy" you speak of?

Where is it?

I'd like to go there.

The number of new retail vacancies in my area, in just the last month or so, is sobering.

The reduction in retail traffic is stark as well.

32 posted on 07/26/2009 8:24:06 PM PDT by Trailerpark Badass (Happiness is a choice!)
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To: JasonC

[will any of these baying idiots shut up about it, or admit they were wrong? ]

I’m just wondering when you will admit you were wrong. We are no longer so capitalistic as we once were and overcoming the monetary, regulatory and tax stress is a severe burden. Those baying idiots were quite correct about the current depression, I suspect taking their heed is much less idiotic than following your lead.


33 posted on 07/26/2009 8:37:21 PM PDT by FastCoyote (I am intolerant of the intolerable.)
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To: JasonC
i will take you up on your wager here.
i am calling you on your assessment of the situation. this time next year the economy will not be growing. the stock market is an irrelevant indicator to overall economic health however.

i will bet you $1 (paper or silver your choice) that the economy is no better this time next year, but i wont accept random noise amongst indicators as improvement.

signed,
Baying Idiot
34 posted on 07/26/2009 9:01:27 PM PDT by wafflehouse (RE-ELECT NO ONE !)
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To: sickoflibs

This gives rise to the obvious question: What happens when the next massive shock comes, while we are in such a precarious financial state??

I’m not borrowing trouble nor am I wishing it upon us, but what happens if we get a repeat event of the magnitude of 9/11? It doesn’t have to be another terrorist attack, although another attack that shuts down the airlines for a week or so would do it....

What happens when Iran’s nuclear facilities are leveled by the Israelis?? Iran’s reaction could also be a trigger.

Even another massive hurricane hit on the US would be enough to push some state economies right off the deep end.

What’s scary is that we have no reserves, and in an emergency the only way for the US to raise large sums of cash is by selling more bonds to the Chinese....until they decide to quit buying them....


35 posted on 07/26/2009 9:15:44 PM PDT by Bean Counter ( Shovel ready...)
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To: sickoflibs

National banks like Chase are still closing credit card accounts for no reason other than to try to improve their immediate balance sheets.

Banks and lenders are failing to complete foreclosures because they cannot afford and are not staffed to handle the large number of foreclosures.

Mortgage loans are at a near standstill as the mortgage industry has squeezed good buyers out of the market with draconian loan rules and regulations. New housing starts are dead.

These are hardly a business practices that suggest a stronger economy.


36 posted on 07/26/2009 9:23:10 PM PDT by CodeToad (If it weren't for physics and law enforcement I'd be unstoppable!)
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To: sickoflibs
'Grim Reading' Likely At BP And Shell

BP and Shell, the oil giants, will this week release results that analysts expect to make "grim reading" because of lower global demand for oil."

[snip]

37 posted on 07/26/2009 9:23:40 PM PDT by blam
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas

There will not be a recovery PERIOD, until we get rid of Obama, and reverse his policies.


38 posted on 07/26/2009 9:39:20 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
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To: MikeWUSAF

This is a very comforting chart. /s


39 posted on 07/26/2009 9:39:20 PM PDT by djsherin (Government is essentially the negation of liberty.)
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To: sickoflibs

I am in agreement with this guy.

I just cannot believe anyone is even thinking of negative interest rates. Talk about a run on the banks.


40 posted on 07/26/2009 9:40:44 PM PDT by GeronL (Guilty of the crime of deviationism.)
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To: MikeWUSAF

Interesting chart, but 1933 was the bottom of the depression, however, the deleveraging process took 10 years.

If we repeat the chart, we have hit bottom but the recovery will be long, slow and barely noticeable.


41 posted on 07/26/2009 10:01:16 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: sickoflibs

The Austrians are right.

We can get out of this
1) drill the damn oil
2) dump the greenies
3) lower taxes
4) deregulate everything at every level (that means drying clothes on a line in your neighborhood)
5)close the borders.


42 posted on 07/26/2009 11:27:04 PM PDT by Bhoy
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To: Bhoy

6) no more foreign aid
7) get out of the UN
8) cut all federal programs (arts, education, etc)


43 posted on 07/26/2009 11:28:48 PM PDT by Bhoy
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To: JasonC
"that is simply want free capitalist economies do"

You are falsely assuming that we boast a free market capitalist country. America, in the past, use to rely on free market economics for growth, but this time it's different. It's also important to note that monetary policy is not necessarily the same thing as economic policy, and thus its better used as an indicator of how intrusive a government is over how healthy the economy is. The current Fed policy is a mess with debt monetization, dependent banks, and a reliance on artificially low interest rates. So, in other words, the government is currently quite intrusive. Poor monetary policy by itself hinders an economy and reflects an out of control government, but not surprisingly it's only one of many bearish factor contributing to our unsustainable path.

On top of an inflationary Fed policy, the US has a an unchecked anti-growth and anti-wealth government. The government is declaring war on the investors and job creators of the economy. To mask the high levels of unemployment, the local, state, and federal governments are hiring more public workers now than in anytime in recent memory. The only opportunities for new jobs is through the government or through its subsidized businesses. Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you look at it, all governments are running out or have run out of money and cannot bank roll an increasing number of unproductive labor indefinitely.

Restraints on this current government are nonexistent and its prevailing opinion continues to hold the misguided belief that central planning can improve the economy and even more bureaucratic regulations are needed to protect the common people. This misguided belief and economic ignorance is expensive and continues to drain America's wealth and productive capacity. With every country around the world,including America, continuing the reckless practice of excessive government spending, borrowing, and currency devaluation, harsh consequences will follow. Economic realities will rear its ugly head and scream the fact that these socialist policies and behaviors are leading us down an unsustainable path.

I hate describing this as economics because it's really governmental intrusion, waste, and corruption. The American economy has grown in the past despite these horrible economic inputs forced upon entrepreneurs and small businesses by these tyrannical bureaucrats. Too many people, including you, put faith in the government to fix the economy. All the problems facing America could have been avoided with a true free market. However, man is an arrogant creature that thinks he can make his own truth and avoid the consequences to his poor choices. I will personally add you to the list of the delusional.

If recognizing the failures of anti-market policies grant people the label as doom spreaders and idiots then it's clear there is not much one can do to change your lack of understanding of basic economics. However, your failure to recognize simple economic realities is contributing to the pool of economic ignorance which lowers the quality of life, destroys opportunities, and crushes personal liberty to billions around the world. Aggregate wealth can only increase by advancing technology, expanding freedom, or by improving incentives. Any other belief is wrong.

I do find it funny the timing you chose to attack Austrian economists. There are currently six job seekers to every one job opening. Most of the job openings are government related. The liberals are putting all of their political capital in taking over at least fifteen percent of the economy with nationalized health care. Around 70% of the US economy is based on consumer spending which relies on low interest rates. The only growth earnings have proved so far is overseas. The Treasury is auctioning more debt to a tune of $235,000,000,000 this week. The Bush tax cuts will expire and more tax rate increases on the "rich" will be implemented. Fannie and Freddie are masking the bearish state of the housing market by making artificial demand. Government waste will only get bigger and the effects of the recent splurge of inflation will begin to show. You are right to see these green shoots JasonC! How could I could have missed all of this bullish news?!!

Double down on socialism... I dare you!

44 posted on 07/27/2009 4:02:15 AM PDT by Cheap_Hessian
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To: sickoflibs

Not to worry. Palin will fix it.


45 posted on 07/27/2009 4:08:50 AM PDT by Wolfie
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To: bareford101

We are not on the gold standard anymore and haven’t been for many decades. They can print all the money they want...our money is based on the good faith and credit of the United States, which is a debt system.


46 posted on 07/27/2009 4:33:05 AM PDT by EBH (it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new Government)
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To: EBH; bareford101

So as long as Americans work...our money will be worth the debt we generate.

The question becomes at what point does America lose the “good faith and credit?”

What is the magic debt to income ratio for a country to go bankrupt? We’re already bankrupt, we’ve been that way for several years now. America is just like those people who over bought into homes they couldn’t afford, ran up their debts...and then lost their jobs...

America has been bleeding jobs overseas for decades. All our policies and regulations has left us with only one hope...federal job creation...jobs support and back our money, not gold.

From you neighbor next door who lost their job to the car company moving overseas to build cars in China...it is about jobs.

Welcome to the serfdom.


47 posted on 07/27/2009 4:49:11 AM PDT by EBH (it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new Government)
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To: sickoflibs
I have to agree completely with the author's assessments.

I too, no longer see any way out but down now as the goobermint is racing madly to suck more wealth from the economy and piling on enormous unheard of massive amounts of debt to the US taxpayer.....I'm predicting the dead cat bounce in the markets early this fall, but, there are no more solid fundementals left for the economy here to grow.

Too many Porkulus, Ponzi Scheme, items now being dumped into legisalation the Congress critters never read.

We've not even seen the effects yet of Shamnesty (once it passes) and universal (rationed care - let the old die) socialist healthcare.

The Fed, Congress, Administration, Big Banks and the sheeple will make sure a Depression like never seen before will come very soon.

BTW, this is not a recession, it's a depression.

The LSM isn't covering the real stories at all....they cherry pick warm fuzzy reports for a positive economic outlook and the truth is 180º out for our long term financial security as a nation.

They are intentionally bankruting the baby boomers as hyperinflation is well on its way in food, energy, medical and taxes.

48 posted on 07/27/2009 5:54:02 AM PDT by RSmithOpt (Liberalism: Highway to Hell)
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To: EBH; All

U6 numbers as of July 2, 2009 have gone from 10.3% to 16.5% in one short year!

U6 accounts for the folks below, as well as the newly unemployed. Basically it lumps together EVERYONE that’s without a job, or those WITH part-time jobs who are ready, willing and able to work full time:

“Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.

Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.”

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

No jobs, no prospect of jobs, no recovery. The Porkulus Bill didn’t create a SINGLE job that can be seen. Porkulus II won’t do a d@mn thing but completely seal the fate of our kids and grandkids as endentured slaves to Government.

It’s really pretty simple.


49 posted on 07/27/2009 5:56:14 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (Save The Earth. It's The Only Planet With Chocolate.)
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To: al baby
Some people smarter than me believe the stuff hits the fan about Aug/Sept.
50 posted on 07/27/2009 7:26:27 AM PDT by investigateworld ( For a perfect example of Alinsky's Rule 13, visit any Free Trade thread)
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