Skip to comments.Calculating a Minimum Attendance Number for the 9/12 DC Tea Party
Posted on 09/12/2009 8:05:13 PM PDT by speelurker
I've put together a Google Spreadsheet with a calculation of a minimum number of people who could have attended today.
Density Calculation Spreadsheet
This is based on analyzing what the camera that was looking down Pennsylvania Avenue saw throughout the event. Here's a snapshow when it's empty:
Here's an analysis of the width of that street using Google Earth:
I’m in the chat bar.
Doh, I’ve never used the chat bar.
How do I get in there?
Little double-down-arrow, right side. First time I’ve looked at this myself.
go here to see a time lapse video:
BTW, the crowd was instructed to text in to an announced phone number so the organizers could get a count.
I don’t have any competing way to gauge the number of people in DC today, from any picture or representation , but my instincts tell me it was a lot closer to your figure of 110K, than the figure I have read from 2 sources, which was TEN times that, if not 18 times that.
That seems absurd. That many people would have too much trouble even getting into the city , not to mention the intersection where they are seen to congregate. My idea for the next demo would involve hundreds of strategically selected cities and towns, PLUS DC. The numbers will have to be 50 times bigger than what was reported today, because we do want to shake their sense of sanity , don’t we? What’s called for is PsyOps that every citizen can do himself. Just as we have been doing.
Is it perhaps an IE only thing?
I’m in Safari on a Mac and don’t see anything like that. :-(
The first thing you need to do is make that yellow line perpendicular to the curb (unless you plan to calculate the street area as a trapezoid).
It took over two hours for everyone to march to Mall area. In fact, it may have been three hours. So your 45 minutes is too low. I don’t feel comfortable with the 110,000 anyway. I have been to a rock concert with appx. 120,000 and to professional football games, basketball games and the numbers of people here today totally dwarfed anything I have ever seen before. I believe the 1.2 million number being thrown around although I would accept 500,000 to 600,000 if good source claimed it. But, I would not accept less than 500,000 as being accurate.
What was to prevent those of us who watched it from texting?
Bookmark. Remember too, that there were many reports from people there that every side street leading into the main entrance street was packed as well. Not sure how you could calculate that, but those numbers should be included.
Good luck. Glad someone is willing to tackle this in a logical fashion. There are probably reliable numbers for the mall when it is full. We were prevented from getting on the mall area, so many people were under the trees lining the mall. I believe the 1.5 million estimate.
Ah, non clue. Ok here’s what I’m thinking.
1.3m/s stroll speed seems high.
I think you should include the side-walks.
This doesn’t account for people joining in from other directions, late, etc.
No clue how long it took for the entire group to pass.
your estimate of 110,000 seems reasonable — unofficially the DC Fire Department said 60,000 to 70,000. that’s a lot!
The two million number was misattributed to ABC News, but apparently it was wrong, and Michelle Malkin agrees:
Hot Air summarizes the different counts, and concludes “However big it was, it was bigger than expected.”
*no clue, even
By the way, you did not measure the sidewalks. While not full they were near full with marchers. I know cause I walked along them for a couple blocks.
And the buses turned away....
The spreadsheet is updated with this number.
nothing. And also nothing that would help text challenged people like me know how to do it. I'll bet more people at the rally were not counted because they didn't know how to text than people at home counted themselves there by texting from their living rooms. Just a guess . . .
110k does not seem like very many. We get a lot more than that for Gasparilla Pirate Festival in Tampa every year. In 2001 we had our parade when the super bowl was here and 500k came. Seems like DC crowd must have been more than little ole Gasparilla.
“your estimate of 110,000 seems reasonable”
For those who do not have a clue...
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