Posted on 12/02/2009 1:23:43 PM PST by SeekAndFind
The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in November, according to two reports released Wednesday.
Automatic Data Processing (ADP, Fortune 500), a payroll-processing firm, said private-sector employers cut 169,000 jobs in November.
It was the eighth month in a row that the number of job cuts fell from the month before. The number of cuts in October was revised down to 195,000 from the previously reported 203,000.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 150,000 jobs last month.
"Looking forward, we expect several months of declines," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, in a conference call. "But the losses will get smaller and we should see the first positive number in February's data."
The U.S. economy will not return to "full employment," defined as 5% unemployment, until as late as 2014, Prakken said.
Prakken also addressed the jobs forum slated for Thursday, in which President Obama will meet with labor representatives, financial experts and other business leaders to discuss the continued problems with unemployment.
"There are two ways you can go: hope more government spending translates to employment, or give tax incentives for hiring," Prakken said.
Both options are tricky, Prakken said, and "he's not a huge fan" of either avenue because to improve the labor market most of the hiring will have to be in the private sector.
"Sadly, I don't think much can be done to keep unemployment from peaking at 10.4% or 10.5%," Prakken said.
Challenger report. A separate report showed the pace of job losses has slowed to the lowest level in two years, but the number of cuts announced in 2009 have already exceeded last year's total.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
It’s from CNN. Don’t you believe it!
“Sadly, I don’t think much can be done to keep unemployment from peaking at 10.4% or 10.5%,” Prakken said.”
Which is bullshit of the highest order...it is closer to 18%...
Friday will show a net loss of between 160,000 - 165,000 jobs, and unemployment will tick up to 10.3%. If it weren’t for “seasonal adjustments” the number would be much higher. Just wait until after the holidays when most of the temporary workers will be let go, it ain’t gonna be pretty.
Hundred lined up to get a part time minimun wage job in Imperial Beach (san diego) in a recycling place... this was apparently one of the green jobs my congress man Bob Filner got with the 1.9 mil he got for the region...How ever a call to his office, no one knew where they were at....
Pretty soon, the number of jobs cut will be zero.
“The U.S. economy will not return to “full employment,” defined as 5% unemployment, until as late as 2014, Prakken said. “
BS. With these idiotic policies being implemented by the Democrats look for unemployment to hover at about 8%-10% forever. Reminiscent of a Euro-style social democracy.
“I know that you are dying from cancer... but it is spreading more slowly... but you are still going to die.”
LLS
Friday will show a net loss of between 160,000 - 165,000 jobs, and unemployment will tick up to 10.3%. If it weren’t for “seasonal adjustments” the number would be much higher. Just wait until after the holidays when most of the temporary workers will be let go, it ain’t gonna be pretty.
Lets see. They expect “several months” of declines more.
Now lets do the math. It fell from 195 to 169. That’s a decline of 26k in one month. At that rate, to get from 169 to 0 will take 6.5 months. To me, “several” means maybe up to 4.
Now factor in that we have to ADD 150k jobs per month to absorb new workers. Unemployment rate actually continues to increase until you get past 150k positive per month. That adds 5.6 more months to the 6.5 above before the unemployment rate actually declines. So now, we’re looking at nearly a year of unemployment rate ticking higher and higher, best case.
And all this assumes there will be no more fits, starts, or double dips, a big assumption giving foreclosures are ramping up, commercial real estate is feeling heat, and the tanking dollar drives up raw material costs for every business, and those businesses are facing huge tax increases with expiration of bush cuts, health ‘reform’ and other obama policies.
Isn’t the real unfiltered number 17.5%?
Of course, using these same figures, unemployment was much higher during the Bush years, as well. Can't have it both ways. :-)
Unemployment Is Really at 22.1%
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2009/11/unemployment-is-really-at-221.html
NyPo’s John Crudele reports on the latest numbers from Shadow Government Stats and fills in a bit more on how the government is able to whittle down the number to 10.1%: My friend John Williams of Shadow Government Stats thinks the true unemployment rate would be 22.1 percent if everyone — all discouraged former workers, encouraged, involuntary part-timers and the like — were included.
And whole chains of retailers go belly up after a Black Christmas...
“The U.S. economy will not return to “full employment,” defined as 5% unemployment, until as late as 2014, Prakken said. “
Funny how they never referred to 5% unemployment as “full employment” under the Bush administration.
That’s because that full employment was not the right kind of jobs, which may have been right, but many today wish they could get those jobs just the same.
I know U-6 supposedly measures the “underemployed”, but do we think it honestly measures every pay cut, reduced hours, furlough days, etc.
My gut feel is that EVERY government/industry measure/stat grossly under-represents the true pain.
James Halderman
Seek and find, Seek and Find;
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