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Get Ready For 11% Unemployment In January
Business Insider ^ | 01/11/10 | David Kotok

Posted on 01/11/2010 8:55:23 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster

Get Ready For 11% Unemployment In January

David Kotok | Jan. 11, 2010, 3:11 PM

To be blunt: in our view the jobs data were plainly miserable and disappointing.

Like many of our readers, I listened to the debate on CNBC and read numerous analyses. We will set aside the perennial optimists who find positive outcomes in any data set. Simply put: a 10% unemployment rate and a 17.3% underemployment rate are two extremely serious numbers.

They help explain the market’s immediate reaction, which was a Treasury bond price rally and a drop in the 2-year note yield to an intraday low of 0.936%.

/snip

Let’s dig a little deeper into the jobs situation. We expect the January report is going to be a startling one when it is released in early February. It will be the first time we will see the full results of the annual revisions of the benchmarks used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The revisions will show that there was a net job loss in the United States for the entire decade. We guess the net loss will be about 1 million.

Furthermore, the number of discouraged workers who have left the labor force and the true size of the labor force will be better estimated once the revisions are public. Also, the differences between the two survey methods used to determine these statistics may become clear. They will show that if the labor force figure included those who would be genuinely seeking jobs were they not discouraged. We believe the revised figures will indicate the true unemployment rate might be closer to 11% than 10%.

Some of the details in the report show how severe things are. The unemployment rate for college graduates hit a new all-time high of 5%.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; thecomingdepression; unemployment

1 posted on 01/11/2010 8:55:24 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster; PAR35; AndyJackson; Thane_Banquo; nicksaunt; MadLibDisease; happygrl; ...

Ping!


2 posted on 01/11/2010 8:55:53 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Sounds like another “worse than expected”, DemocRAT moment.


3 posted on 01/11/2010 9:01:32 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Remember in November! Throw all of the bums out!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
All of Santa's little part time helpers have been let go.

It'll be ugly.

4 posted on 01/11/2010 9:02:59 PM PST by hole_n_one
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To: TigerLikesRooster

The number will not increase so long as people keep dropping out of the work force.


5 posted on 01/11/2010 9:03:23 PM PST by misterrob (Have you tea bagged a liberal today?)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

6 posted on 01/11/2010 9:07:59 PM PST by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bail out)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

This means, of course, that we must expand the H1-B program and extend amnesty to “undocumented” workers. All in the name of competitiveness.


7 posted on 01/11/2010 9:11:10 PM PST by glorgau
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Last month the Administration’s journalist cheerleaders were claiming that unemployment was shrinking in December, but the actual numbers didn’t pan out that way. The spending ourselves out of recession strategy is not working. Seems like we’re getting close to a time when even moderate citizens start clamoring for impeachment.


8 posted on 01/11/2010 9:12:47 PM PST by purplelobster
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To: glorgau

Where are all those ever-promised “green” jobs, nobama???? the only kind of green anyone wants is the folding kind. you, your angry, unattractive wife and privileged, arrogant children need to leave washington in disgrace. as you all wanted to, you are destroying America. you shameless incompetent socialist fascists.


9 posted on 01/11/2010 9:15:03 PM PST by hal ogen
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To: purplelobster
Unemployment benefit for many folks is running out. That will be a spark.
10 posted on 01/11/2010 9:15:28 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: misterrob

I am one of those uncounted. Left a part time job several months ago; my body is just getting too old to unload trucks. Doc said enough, so I just left. Been looking for another-there are really not too many to be had. When I do find one, I am not “qualified” because I was a stay at home mom for almost 20 years. The recent administration experience plus 3 years running hubbys company are not enough to get me in the door so I stay home.

That said, I am an optimist, and I see a silver lining here. As more and more folks have to get by on less and less, and survival becomes an issue (in a real sense, like finding food and shelter for your children) I see a definate return to that which matters most- God fearing family.

I spend my days at peace with my life, even though I am on the fast track to financial destruction without a job. I pray more, especially while kneading dough for homemade bread, among other things I am reaquainting myself with for when the time comes. I am hunkering down to prepare my family for whatever comes all the while watching Gods providence over my family. He IS in control. We have gotten too far from His will, and like the loving father of a spoiled, willful child, He is not sparing us the rod of correction. It will all be OK, but it will not be pleasant.


11 posted on 01/11/2010 9:16:10 PM PST by wombtotomb
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To: TigerLikesRooster

11% is gonna freak peeps out BIGTIME


12 posted on 01/11/2010 9:17:10 PM PST by cmsgop
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Anyone who believes it is only 10% is thick enough to believe that 0bama is not a dangerous communist.


13 posted on 01/11/2010 9:19:10 PM PST by Boucheau
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To: Boucheau
Rats’ core constituents.
14 posted on 01/11/2010 9:21:22 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: wombtotomb
while kneading dough for homemade bread

Ever thought of selling your bread or catering meals for business meetings or even to office workers? That is how Paula Deen started out.

15 posted on 01/11/2010 9:26:22 PM PST by kcvl
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To: TigerLikesRooster

If the bottom tax bracket reverts to 15% at the end of 2010 many ‘’taxpayers’’ will see a 40-50% increase in their taxes,,,0’b won’t help them either.


16 posted on 01/11/2010 9:27:52 PM PST by Waco
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To: TigerLikesRooster

For the past couple of years, many have propagandized for our complacency and pride, saying that Chinese consumerism would not rise.

China Ends U.S.’s Reign as Largest Auto Market (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aE.x_r_l9NZE
[It’s from Bloomberg, so don’t post any content from it here.]

We should not have been complacent or prideful. We should have been doing real work with more than ourselves in mind.


17 posted on 01/11/2010 9:28:27 PM PST by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

They really mean 18%.The recent college grads voted overwelmingly for the marxist and cant find jobs.Well,well,well I’m all broke up over that.


18 posted on 01/11/2010 9:28:35 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

After Christmas layoffs?


19 posted on 01/11/2010 9:31:16 PM PST by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: Salvation
Most likely.
20 posted on 01/11/2010 9:32:19 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: kcvl

actually, I have started to perfect some of my polish recipes to do just that. I am going to have hubby take orders at work and I am going to ask our parish priest if I can let folks at church know about it. I am going to be starting out with pierogis and stuffed cabbage. These two things I can make in my sleep LOL, and every time hubby brings them for a holiday potluck at work the folks go crazy for them.

Thanks for the thought... the bread may be the next avenue :)

any freepers that love a good old fashioned homemade pierogi or stuffed cabbage.....send me a freepmail :)


21 posted on 01/11/2010 9:32:53 PM PST by wombtotomb
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To: hal ogen

“Where are all those ever-promised “green” jobs, nobama????”

They’re out there, they are called “lawn mowing”.


22 posted on 01/11/2010 9:37:44 PM PST by Pelham (ObamaCare, it comes with a toe tag)
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To: cmsgop
11% is gonna freak peeps out BIGTIME

23 posted on 01/11/2010 9:42:38 PM PST by Bratch
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To: TigerLikesRooster

24 posted on 01/11/2010 9:47:51 PM PST by freespirited (People talk about "too big to fail." Our government is too big to succeed. --Chris Chocola)
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To: freespirited
This time around, it is not a malaise, but a plague.
25 posted on 01/11/2010 9:56:36 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: wombtotomb

I prayed to GOD to help you find a good job to sustain you and your family. GOD bless you. You are not alone. I am sure there are many people praying for you right now. Hang in there.


26 posted on 01/11/2010 11:19:00 PM PST by Do the math (Doug)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

No wonder Obama doesn’t want to talk to the press. I predicted 11.4% by March...my cousin who works on Wall St. says 11.6% by March and that it will probably bubble up to 11.8% by June and then back down to 10.8% by September with everyone having summer jobs.


27 posted on 01/11/2010 11:24:09 PM PST by My Favorite Headache
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To: My Favorite Headache
Sounds like a conservative estimate.
28 posted on 01/11/2010 11:28:38 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: wombtotomb

I notice at the boutiques where I sell Watkins stuff at Christmas that tamales sell like crazy.

Perhaps the food items you mention would sell well at Christmas type boutiques.

I know it’s a few months off, but it’s something to think about.


29 posted on 01/11/2010 11:29:42 PM PST by Marie2 (The second mouse gets the cheese.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I think so too...he said the reality is we are more like 17.6% right now and will be up around 18% by Spring...but playing the government numbers game he doesn’t see them going any higher publicly than 11.8%.


30 posted on 01/11/2010 11:36:09 PM PST by My Favorite Headache
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To: wombtotomb
Remember, God helps those who helps themselves.
I watch a program about chefs in New York. In order to make ends meet they have gone underground. The chefs throw invention only inhome dinner parties. Donations highly recommended.
31 posted on 01/12/2010 12:46:12 AM PST by steveab (When was the last time someone tried to sell you a CO2 induced climate control system for your home?)
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To: Do the math

Thanks for your prayers. We are a family of very deep faith. Every prayer is for us is more precious than gold. We have always had a “just get by” kind of life because I stayed home with the kids. I don’t regret that decision for one millisecond though. Our oldest, 22, is a devout Catholic who is getting married next weekend to an incredible girl, our middle-just shy of 18, is off to seminary in the fall to become a Catholic priest, and I am finishing up the homeschooling of our youngest-16 as I await the priviledge of becoming a grandma in the next year or two. Life could not be better for us, though it would be nice if it were a bit easier financially.

God has always met our needs and most of our wants, but that is because our wants are not material. I have always prayed for my familys faith and health to be strong, and for my husband and I to have what we need to care for them. We always do. Now that they are grown, they truly are as scripture suggests, like olive branches around our table. I am so blessed! I was warned by many that raising a faithful family, especially with a child called to the priesthood,the attacks on our family would be hard, but that God will always provide a way. I can attest that truer words were never spoken, but it has grown our marriage, our faith, and that of our children. God knows what He is doing :)


32 posted on 01/12/2010 5:58:14 AM PST by wombtotomb
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I won’t be ready for that!


33 posted on 01/12/2010 6:30:43 AM PST by jiggyboy (Ten per cent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: glorgau
This means, of course, that we must expand the H1-B program and extend amnesty to “undocumented” workers.

High unemployment could be a blessing in disguise in that it will fuel intense opposition to amnesty. Blacks, whites and legal hispanics all want jobs and I doubt they'll take too kindly to providing them to "undocumented" workers - a/k/a illegals. Republicans should run with it. But they won't...

34 posted on 01/12/2010 6:34:43 AM PST by jersey117
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To: misterrob

“The number will not increase so long as people keep dropping out of the work force.”
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

When we have nobody working except government and everyone else has dropped out and started robbing banks then we will have zero unemployment. A true socialist paradise.


35 posted on 01/12/2010 7:00:05 AM PST by RipSawyer (Trying to reason with a leftist is like trying to catch sunshine in a fish net at midnight.)
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To: wombtotomb
We have people who make a ‘menu’ w/prices and pass it out at banks, offices, etc. Call the local civic organizations and large corporations who have monthly meetings. They are always looking for something new to serve. I wish you were here in Arkansas!

You will be surprised at how many groups are looking for something different to serve and how often they meet. Then, word of mouth takes off and you will be overwhelmed with orders.

A couple of ladies here have grown their business to where they have had to rent a space to cook everything. During Christmas they had to stop taking orders they were so busy.

BTW, some of the caterers here also do funerals. People who have full time jobs most of the time don’t have time to cook food to serve the family. They just order it and have it delivered. Just another suggestion.

Good luck! I hope you have great results!

36 posted on 01/12/2010 8:35:43 AM PST by kcvl
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Barry and his Progressive enablers and financiers know that “The Plan” IS working.
37 posted on 01/12/2010 8:48:29 AM PST by gathersnomoss (General George Patton had it right.)
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To: purplelobster

“moderate citizens start clamoring for impeachment.”

NEVER HAPPEN!


38 posted on 01/12/2010 8:50:00 AM PST by gathersnomoss (General George Patton had it right.)
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To: wombtotomb

Ditto’s. God Speed.


39 posted on 01/12/2010 8:52:07 AM PST by gathersnomoss (General George Patton had it right.)
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To: wombtotomb

...”starting out with pierogis and stuffed cabbage.”

Pittsburgh area?


40 posted on 01/12/2010 8:54:09 AM PST by gathersnomoss (General George Patton had it right.)
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To: gathersnomoss

freezing my butt off in south florida, but mail orders are a definate possibility :)


41 posted on 01/12/2010 8:57:09 AM PST by wombtotomb
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To: imahawk

Hey now, don’t lump us all together. :P

Contrary to popular belief, there are college students that didn’t vote for Obama, like myself. But that doesn’t mean I won’t reap what the rest of my generation sowed, unfortunately.

It’s very frustrating knowing that I probably won’t be able to find work after I graduate, due to other people’s poor decisions. (I am finishing up a Physics/Business degree. No Art History or Women’s Studies here.)


42 posted on 01/12/2010 9:30:13 AM PST by same old song
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To: wombtotomb
...they also don't include the many people who are working less than full time...hours cut,etc....that would include my hubby......

but wombtotomb..you nailed it.....if we can learn to live simply we would probably all be happier....less bills coming in....less pressure....

good luck to you......prayers as well...

43 posted on 01/12/2010 10:48:19 AM PST by cherry
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To: wombtotomb
my mother could make pierogis and stuffed cabbage ..."halupki" in her sleep....

me....I have to really plan ahead....I never could get the cabbage leaves trimmed just right so they rolled up nice...

made pierogis for Christmas with my mothers picture on the refrigerator and I know she was staring down with near horror from heaven at my "technique"....:)

44 posted on 01/12/2010 10:55:48 AM PST by cherry
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To: cherry

Your technique is perfect, no doubt. It is your hands, lovingly creating a form of nourishment for your family. I know my mother (thankfully still with me, especially after a nasty bout of breast cancer) loves watching me make them when I am lucky enough to get a visit from her (a LOT of miles between us, but no distance at all :).


45 posted on 01/12/2010 11:59:20 AM PST by wombtotomb
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To: same old song

That is the otherside of the coin for sure.Hope you make it but you have to admit that most did vote for this did they not?It sucks for the rest of us out here as well in the small business world.Good luck to you.


46 posted on 01/12/2010 12:12:33 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: Bratch

Looks like a Jon Cary “Help it’s on it’s way!” moment.


47 posted on 01/12/2010 1:09:36 PM PST by 4woodenboats
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