Skip to comments.On the Bubble (Major developments from the “yes” and “no” columns in the House)
Posted on 03/09/2010 4:55:39 AM PST by Second Amendment First
UPDATED 3/8: Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) moved from "no" to "undecided." He told local media outlets on March 2 and March 7 that he was voting against reform. But his spokesman told the Plum Line blog on March 8 that hes undecided. Arcuri voted for the House bill.
--Rep. Dan Maffei (D-N.Y.) voted yes on the House bill, but told the Syracuse paper March 8 the he is undecided on the final bill.
--Rep Bill Owens (D-N.Y.) voted yes on the House bill, but told the Syracuse paper March 8 the he is undecided on the final bill.
--Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski of Illinois voted for the House bill but the Weekly Standard reported March 8 that he would not back a final bill that doesnt include Stupaks abortion language.
Democratic Rep. James Oberstar of Minnesota voted for the House bill but the Weekly Standard reported March 8 that he would not back a final bill that doesnt include Stupaks abortion language.
--Retiring Rep. Brian Baird (D-Wash.), who voted against the House bill, told CNN March 7 that hes now undecided, but still might vote against a health care bill -- even if it kills reform.
--Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), who voted no on the House bill, told Fox News Sunday on March 7 that hes not leaning one way or the other though he sounded more yes than no.
--Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.), a yes vote on the House bill, told the AP March 4 that shes undecided.
--Retiring Rep. Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.) voted against the House bill but said in a statement March 4 that the presidents proposal is moving in a more fiscally responsible direction.
--Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.) won't be changing his "no" vote, The Hill reported March 8.
--Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.) wont be changing his no votes, The Daily Caller reported March 8.
--Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) told MSNBC March 8 that he will vote against reform because he doesnt see the Senate bill as the solution.
--On the March 7 edition of Fox News Sunday, Rep. John Adler (D-N.J.), a House bill no vote, said Speaker Pelosi hasnt been working him to support reform.
--Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.), a House bill yes vote, told the NYT March 4 that shes not inclined to support the Senate bill.
--Rep. Nathan Deal (R-Ga.) announced March 4 that he wont resign from the House as planned on March 8 in order to stay and fight health reform, keeping one more no vote in the House and forcing Dems to get 217 votes instead of 216.
I prefer Jay Cost’s blog here....... http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/
Here is what he has to say about the current state of affairs..........
Remember, check back in for updates as I find them. If you have news that I haven’t covered, send it my way! Also, you can follow me on Twitter for updates.
Current Categories (As of 1:30 AM 3/9)
Democrats Who Voted Nay in November
Very Hard to Persuade: 25
Hard to Persuade: 6
Democrats Who Voted Yea in November
Suggested Might Now Vote Nay (Including Confirmed Stupak Democrats): 16
Other Possible Stupak Democrats: 10
Update, 1:30 AM 3/9 Adding Steve Kagen (WI-8) to the list of Democrats who voted yea in November but who are now undecided, thanks to this report:
(Fox News 11) asked the Congressmen from Northeast Wisconsin about voting on the Senate bill...
“Let me put it this way: you’re asking whether or not I trust the United States Senate, where they came up with a deal for Nebraska that the other states didn’t get; where Louisiana would get a special deal. No, I don’t trust the U.S. Senate,” said Rep. Steve Kagen (D-8th District). “So I think I’d like to have a vote on something very meaningful.”
Kagen said the health care bill should be split up into smaller bills.
“I have made the case to the speaker and also to the White House that we should take small pieces, small bites,” Kagen said. “In the practice of medicine, I can’t give a child a big pill. What do we do? We cut it up into pieces. Let’s find things we can agree on.”
Update, 6 PM 3/8 Adding Dan Maffei (NY-25) to the list of Democrats who voted yea in November but who are now undecided, thanks to this report, in which Maffei says, “The Senate bill, in my view, burns the village in order to save it. I will say, however, the president’s direct involvement gives me hope they will come up with a compromise.”
Update, 5:30 PM 3/8 Adding Henry Cuellar (TX-28) to the list of Democrats who voted yea in November but who are now undecided, thanks to this report. Also, Kathy Dahlkemper was on the list of suspected Stupak Democrats. Her representative confirms that the Senate abortion language is unacceptable, “period.” Thus, I move her to the list of Democrats who voted yea in November but who are now undecided.
Update, 12:15 PM 3/8: Moved Dan Lipinski (IL-3) to the category of Democrats who voted yea in November who have now explicitly said something negative about the current legislation. The Weekly Standard reports:
Concur. This weekend will be a fever pitch and this whole drama is going to get very ugly.
The American people can still kill this if they rise up. The RATS are banking on wearing us down.
They go home after voting yes? You want to see riots? Stoddard has been wrong before. Did anyone on the panel disagree with her?
“Code Red” - House Target List on Health Care
The National Republican Congressional Committee has published a target list on health care. In addition to continuing to contact the five Tennessee Democrat Congressmen, you can go http://www.votervoice.net/link/clickthrough/ext/94697.aspx to contact some of these targets. Much of the talk following Obama’s announcement has focused on how to defeat this second bill through reconciliation, but that is misleading because the first step to defeating Obamacare is not by concentrating on defeating the “fixer” bill but by defeating the Senate bill in the House when it goes to the floor for an up-or-down vote on Thursday, March 18th.
Rep. Lincoln Davis 202-225-6831 Columbia office: 931-490-8699
Rep. Jim Cooper 202-225-4311 Nashville office: 615-736-5295
Rep. Bart Gordon 202-225-4231 Murfreesboro office: 615-896-1986
Rep. John S. Tanner 202-225-4714 Jackson office: 731-423-4848
Rep. Steve Cohen 202-225-3265 Memphis office: 901-544-4131
Defeat Obamacare call list: Courtsey of TN Eagle Forum: List now contains the new MAYBES culled from FR posts.
PLEASE CALL! DC OFFICE LOCAL OFFICE State District
Harry Mitchell (202) 225-2190 (480) 946-2411 AZ 5th District
Gabrielle Giffords (202) 225-2542 (520) 881-3588 AZ 8th District
Ann Kirkpatrick (202) 225-2315 (928) 226-6914 AZ 1st District
Jerry McNerney (202) 225-1947 925-833-0643 CA 11th District
John Salazar 202-225-4761 970-245-7107 CO 3rd District
Jim Himes (202) 225-5541 (866) 453-0028 CT 4th District
Alan Grayson (202) 225-2176 (407) 841-1757 FL 8th District
Bill Foster (202) 225-2976 630-406-1114 IL 14th District
Baron Hill 202 225 5315 812 288 3999 IN 9th District
Mark Schauer (202) 225-6276 (517) 780-9075 MI 7th District
Gary Peters (202) 225-5802 (248) 273-4227 MI 9th District
Dina Titus (202) 225-3252 702-256-DINA (3462) NV 3rd District
Carol Shea-Porter (202) 225-5456 (603) 743-4813 NH 1st District
Tim Bishop (202) 225-3826 (631) 696-6500 NY 1st District
John Hall (202) 225-5441 (845) 225-3641 x49371 NY 19th District
Bill Owens (202) 225-4611 (315) 782-3150 NY 23rd District
Mike Arcuri (202)225-3665 (315)793-8146 NY 24th District
Dan Maffei (202) 225-3701 (315) 423-5657 NY 25th District
Earl Pomeroy (202) 225-2611 (701) 224-0355 ND At-Large District
Steven Driehaus (202) 225-2216 (513) 684-2723 OH 1st District
Mary Jo Kilroy (202) 225-2015 (614) 294-2196 OH 15th District
Zach Space (202) 225-6265 (330) 364-4300 OH 18th District
Kathy Dahlkemper (202) 225-5406 (814) 456-2038 PA 3rd District
Patrick Murphy (202) 225-4276 (215) 826-1963 PA 8th District
Christopher Carney (202) 225-3731 (570) 585-9988 PA 10th District
Paul Kanjorski (202) 225-6511 (570) 825-2200 PA 11th District
John Spratt (202) 225-5501 (803)327-1114 SC 5th District
Tom Perriello (202) 225-4711 (276) 656-2291 VA 5th District
Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WVA 1st District
Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WVA 3rd District
Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 8th District
Bart Gordon (202) 225-4231 TN (MAYBE)
Bart Stupak (202) 225 4735 MI (MAYBE)
Brian Baird (202) 225-3536, Vancouver, (360) 695-6292. Olympia, (360) 352-9768, (MAYBE)
senator mark begich (202) 224-3004 toll free. (877) 501 - 6275 just became a MAYBE
John Tanner (202) 225-4714, Union City, (731) 885-7070, Jackson Phone: (731) 423-4848, Millington (901) 873-5690 TN (MAYBE)
Jason Altmire 202-225-2565, Aliquippa, 724-378-0928, Natrona Heights, 724-226-1304 (MAYBE)
If they had the votes already they would have voted already so as not to have anyone waver and fall off the wagon. They do not have the votes yet. They want everyone to think it is inevitable and that the Prez is generating some momentum.
I think you are correct about the Dems and MSM trying desperately to say that Obama has his mojo back and people are coming around to ObamaCare. Unfortunately for them, Rasmussen is showing dear leader at -19% favorable/unfavorable so obviously the bitter clingers are not listening to the media or the POTUS.
I think the media has failed to grasp the most important thing about Obama. Obama was elected because of what he said. The media fell in love with his words, and ignored his deeds. From Rev Wright to the most liberal voting record in the Senate, the MSM was basically an advertising arm for Obama 08.
Now that Obama is POTUS, the media still shills for him relentlessly, with tingles up their leg and all. The DIFFERENCE now is that the people are not just LISTENING to what Obama says, they are WATCHING what he is DOING. They still like his WORDS, but they now realize his words do not match up to his deeds. The left saw him as the anti-Bush, who would end the wars, try the CIA waterboarders, close GITMO, enact universal health care, etc, etc, etc. Obama has talked a good game to them, but is too weak for their liking.
The BIGGER problem is the independant bitter clingers. The hope and change talk of Obama is not matched by his takeover of the auto industry, takeover of the banking industry, and now his attempted takeover of their health care. They did not vote for this kind of change. Obama’s words do not match what he is doing, and people no longer believe his words, or those of the media who shill for him.
The key question is whether the Rats in the HOuse realize Obama is playing them for fools too. I think they are starting to see the light about how Obama could care less about their political future, he is only intent on his own vision for America. Whether enough have the balls to stand up to Rahm/Obama/Pelosi is an open question. I actually think momentum is starting to go against the POTUS on health care, regardless of what the media is saying. I listened to a House whip for the Dems yesterday and he said they only have about 200 votes right now.
You may be missing the point. The Constitution protects nothing. It is a set of rules, the effectiveness of which depends on the willingness of We the People to accept and follow them. But:
"We have no government armed in power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion. Our Constitution was made only for a religious and moral people. It is wholly inadequate for the government of any other." -- John Adams
What we're seeing is not a failure of government, per se -- that's just the symptom. Rather, it's a failure of morals ... and we're all guilty of it, possibly conservatives most of all. We wave the Constitution around like it's a magic talisman, expecting all in view to abide by it out of sheer awe ... because it's The Constitution, after all.
It's not enough simply to wave the Constitution -- the principles it embodies require defense. And the type of defense required has to do more with morals and responsibility than anything else: we need to convince people that it's better to be moral and responsible for their actions: rights are fine, but responsibility and duty are more important, even though less fun.
But we're lazy, and we have short attention spans, and we're continually being outflanked by a group of folks who have created a wonderful story about how the government can relieve us of our responsibilities. And we don't have a good response to that.
expect most of the undecided and leaning no to break yes once they strike their deal. They have seen how to play it.
Yeah, if the Dims had the votes they would have already voted for it. That’s probably the best indicator, IMO. I quit listening to what these guys say a long, long time ago (both sides of the aisle). You can just about count on whatever they say being the exact polar opposite from the truth.....
They want everyone to think that there is a chance it will not pass. All that remains is figuring out who votes "No" to retain their seat, and who votes "Yes" to take one for the party. But they've already got the votes.
As history tells us, this "suspense" is being manufactured by the Demonicrats for the public's consumption, to put forth an illusion that the party has moderates and conservatives. P.T. Barnum lives.
I wish I had access to your sources.
How many times do they have to pull the same trick before we figure out there's no marble under the cups?
Not sure I follow you, but press on. You may be wrong, but you are never in doubt.
Please be right!!!!! I live up North of Pittsburgh....Altmire is a marionette...but I will call more than once!
You just now figured this out? More like curing the disease by killing the patient.
HERE IS MY OWN LIST OF 13 KEY TARGETS.
* = Voted for Stupak Amd. (Y/N) = previous vote on House bill.
Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.) (N) her 2010 race will be tighter
Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) * (Y) Senate hopeful who is supporter of Stupak language
Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.) * (Y) STUPAK
Jerry Costello (Ill.) * (Y) STUPAK
Jason Altmire (Pa.) * (N) said on Fox has open mind. no in committee and on floor
Sanford Bishop Jr. (Ga.) * (Y) Favors Stupak provision
John Boccieri (Ohio) * (N) GOP target
Rick Boucher (Va.) (N) GOP target
Allen Boyd (Fla.) (N) Facing primary challenge
Solomon Ortiz (Texas) * (Y) STUPAK
Alan Mollohan (W.Va.) * (Y) hes in a tight race (NRLC score of 97%)
Bart Gordon (Tenn.) * (N) Retiring committee chairman
John Tanner (Tenn.) * (N) House deputy whip not running for reelection, Voted no in committee and on floor
anyone got local phone numbers in their district?
“Fiscally responsible” by gutting Medicare!! The Democratic physicians know this will save money when those pesky senior citizens start dropping like flies. And the Comparative Effectiveness Committee chairman, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel will make sure that care is denied. Saves tons of money.Fixes Social Security as well. No more 30 years of retirement.
Where the heck are the polls? The most recent polls I can find with a quick googling are a week or more old.