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Arizona GOP Senate: McCain 48%, Hayworth 41% (Rasmussen Poll)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | March 18, 2010 | Rasmussen

Posted on 03/18/2010 7:11:08 AM PDT by GOPGuide

Longtime incumbent John McCain now leads conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points in Arizona’s hotly contested Republican Senate Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.

But now Hayworth, a former congressman turned popular local talk radio host, is a formal candidate, and anti-immigration activist Chris Simcox has quit the race and endorsed him. For McCain, the new numbers also show him dropping again below 50%, and incumbents who poll less than 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Hayworth leads by seven points among male primary voters but trails by 23 among women. He edges McCain by five points among party conservatives, but the incumbent holds substantial margins among Republicans who identify themselves as moderates or liberals.

Hayworth has been attacking McCain as not conservative enough, but the senator, who just two years ago was the Republican presidential nominee, has been countering with a number of heavyweight endorsements from the right. Palin will attend a McCain rally in Tucson later this month.

Polling last fall found that 61% of Arizona Republicans felt McCain was out of touch with the party base.

Arizona Republicans will choose their Senate nominee in an August 24 primary, and for now that’s the major battle of this Senate cycle since no major Democrat has announced yet as a candidate.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of GOP Primary voters have a very favorable opinion of McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987. Fifteen percent (15%) view him very unfavorably.

Hayworth is seen very favorably by 25% and very unfavorably by 15%.

While both candidates are well-known among likely primary voters, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.

Just 11% of Republicans in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 88% disapprove.

Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the performance of the state’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who is in a tough reelection battle this year. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. These findings include six percent (6%) who strongly approve of how she’s doing her job and 17% who strongly disapprove.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. McCain defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arizona
KEYWORDS: az2010; cactusprick; elections; hayworth; jonkylsux; juanmccain; mcbama; mccain; mccainmakesmepuke; mcinsane; mckook; mcprick; mcqueeg; mcstain; military; obama; palin; poll; rasmussen; rememberpowsmias; rinomccain; rinopurge; sarahsarino; senoramcpalin; tarpbailout; taxespay4illegals; teapartyrebellion; ussforrestal
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1 posted on 03/18/2010 7:11:08 AM PDT by GOPGuide
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To: GOPGuide

This is gonna be good....


2 posted on 03/18/2010 7:12:50 AM PDT by ohiobuckeye1997
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To: GOPGuide

J.D. is going to close that gap between now and when we go to the polls. Juan is gone.


3 posted on 03/18/2010 7:12:53 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (How much did your congressmen's vote go for? Mine got two bits. Her going price.)
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To: GOPGuide

Ignore this poll.

Scott Rasmussen is actually keeping Hitler’s brain in his basement. Robert Gibbs told us so.


4 posted on 03/18/2010 7:13:27 AM PDT by GOPGuide
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To: GOPGuide
McCain is toast.

WOOOOOOO!!!!
5 posted on 03/18/2010 7:13:29 AM PDT by Antoninus (It's a degenerate society where dogs have more legal rights than unborn babies.)
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To: ohiobuckeye1997

Factoring in lib poll bias I’d say it’s a dead heat, huh?


6 posted on 03/18/2010 7:14:01 AM PDT by Dansong
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To: GOPGuide

Now, if only Sarah Palin would see the light and endorse J.D.

If she campaigns for McCain, I can never support her in the future.


7 posted on 03/18/2010 7:14:14 AM PDT by Ikemeister
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To: GOPGuide; AuntB; rabscuttle; jimrob

F*** YES! JD is gaining!


8 posted on 03/18/2010 7:15:33 AM PDT by pissant (THE Conservative party: www.falconparty.com)
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To: GOPGuide

If Palin helps get that damn bastard re-elected, she will never get my vote - period.

How can people POSSIBLY vote for this guy after his MISERABLE performance runninng against Obama?

He HELPED to PUT Obama in the White House!!!


9 posted on 03/18/2010 7:15:53 AM PDT by ZULU (Non nobis, non nobis, Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam. God, Guts and Guns made America great.)
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To: Dansong

Not exactly. This is Rasmussen, who is honest, not a liberal, and pretty accurate.


10 posted on 03/18/2010 7:17:11 AM PDT by jpl
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To: ZULU

My feelings exactly. NO RINOS!


11 posted on 03/18/2010 7:19:18 AM PDT by greenhornet68
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To: FlingWingFlyer
An incumbent senator under 50% is not good. Or in this case very good as I personally would like to see the last of Juan McAmnesty. You couldn't have higher name recognition in AZ than John McCain. If he only has 48% that means 52% have already decided not to vote for him. The only question is if they vote for Hayworth or stay home.
12 posted on 03/18/2010 7:19:24 AM PDT by GonzoGOP (There are millions of paranoid people in the world and they are all out to get me.)
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To: GOPGuide

“Scott Rasmussen is actually keeping Hitler’s brain in his basement. Robert Gibbs told us so.”

In that case, Scott should give Gibbs the brain. Gibbs is a horrible liar.


13 posted on 03/18/2010 7:19:37 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Support our troops, and vote out the RINOS)
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Gibbs for Liar of the United States! LOTUS


14 posted on 03/18/2010 7:20:43 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Support our troops, and vote out the RINOS)
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To: ZULU

She is on VERY thin ice with me on this one. I understand all the excuses for why she is doing this. Her possible feelings of “owing him” don’t hold a candle to doing the right thing for this COUNTRY! If he skitters through to another term in some close election, she’s going to get blamed...and rightfully so.


15 posted on 03/18/2010 7:20:47 AM PDT by battletank
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To: GOPGuide
For McCain, the new numbers also show him dropping again below 50%, and incumbents who poll less than 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable.

Sweet music to my ears!!

16 posted on 03/18/2010 7:20:55 AM PDT by azishot (J.D. Hayworth...U.S. Senator FOR Arizona...http://www.jdforsenate.com/)
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To: GOPGuide

The is just a replay of Crist versus Rubio. JD is closing the gap and will move ahead in the upcoming months even with Palin campaigning for McCain on March 23.


17 posted on 03/18/2010 7:21:02 AM PDT by kabar
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To: GOPGuide

The sad thing is that Hayworth is not getting as much support from women as he is from men. Sarah Palin could have a really big influence in that category - and she’s campaigning for the liberal John McCain. I love Sarah, bought her book & now she is using my support to help McCain.


18 posted on 03/18/2010 7:22:48 AM PDT by alicewonders
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To: GonzoGOP

I think a lot of Republicans and Independents will be going to the polls this year. ObamaCare, on top of all the damn windmills popping up all over Arizona, is going to be enough to push them to the polls to say enough is enough.


19 posted on 03/18/2010 7:23:27 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (How much did your congressmen's vote go for? Mine got two bits. Her going price.)
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To: Ikemeister

Sarah needs to stay clear of McNasty and neither show herself with him or support him in any way. The primary is a long time from now. If JD closes the gap between now and just before the primary, she should (at the least) throw her support behind JD. If she doesn’t, she is toast IMHO.


20 posted on 03/18/2010 7:23:33 AM PDT by Evil Slayer (Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war)
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To: GOPGuide

:o(

I guess I need to send JD another little sumpthin sumpthin...


21 posted on 03/18/2010 7:24:11 AM PDT by Clint N. Suhks (Jim Bunning we will miss you. Palin/Cheney 2012)
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To: GOPGuide
GOOD.

Striking distance!

Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Aunt Sarah!! ;-)

22 posted on 03/18/2010 7:25:40 AM PDT by AmericanInTokyo (So help me we are SO going to knock the living snot out of these SOCIALISTS, they will beg for mercy)
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To: GOPGuide

Then again they elected Napolitano?

WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE!


23 posted on 03/18/2010 7:26:08 AM PDT by Clint N. Suhks (Jim Bunning we will miss you. Palin/Cheney 2012)
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To: GOPGuide

I actually thought it was closer than this. Would LOVE to see an upset here!!!


24 posted on 03/18/2010 7:26:18 AM PDT by rintense (Only dead fish go with the flow, which explains why Congress stinks.)
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To: GOPGuide

Wow if this trend continues, McCain will be calling for internment camps for illegals by the primary.


25 posted on 03/18/2010 7:28:15 AM PDT by throwback (o)
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To: alicewonders

I’m writing her a letter and demanding she repay me for buying her book if she uses the income to support McNasty.


26 posted on 03/18/2010 7:28:32 AM PDT by Evil Slayer (Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war)
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To: Ikemeister
Hunter endorsed Huckabee

Tancredo endorsed Romney

DeMint endorsed Romney

Pawlenty endorsed McCain

Thompson endorsed McCain

Newt endorsed Scozzafava

Santorum endorsed Specter

Rubio endorsed Huckabee

Santorum endorsed Romney

Scott Brown endorsed Rommey

Ann Coulter endorsed Romney

Mark Levin endorsed Romney

Dick Cheney endorsed McCain

Thune endorsed McCain

Jindahl endorsed McCain

Huckabee endorsed McCain

Bachmann endorsed McCain/Palin

Ron Paul endorsed Chuck Baldwin

27 posted on 03/18/2010 7:28:59 AM PDT by rintense (Only dead fish go with the flow, which explains why Congress stinks.)
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To: Evil Slayer

That’s a great idea. What a disappointment this is.


28 posted on 03/18/2010 7:29:09 AM PDT by alicewonders
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To: GOPGuide

So Sarah is so good that she could turn the tide back into McVain favor, huh? Please, While I don’t like the support of mcVain, I understand why and all of this AstroTurfing by “it’s an excuse” “RINO” is pure silly.


29 posted on 03/18/2010 7:29:19 AM PDT by Bigtigermike (Loose lips sink ships, stay away RINO's)
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To: Ikemeister
If she campaigns for McCain, I can never support her in the future.

Same here.

30 posted on 03/18/2010 7:30:33 AM PDT by GingisK
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To: GOPGuide

Palin is campaigning for Juan because she is classy and owes it to him. I hope she realizes that, should she run for the White House, McCain will NOT campaign for her!!!


31 posted on 03/18/2010 7:30:35 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: GOPGuide

For all the attacking by McLame portraying JD as some right-wing nut, if McLame is in trouble if he is below 50% and only 7 % ahead of JD.

GO JD!!!


32 posted on 03/18/2010 7:31:01 AM PDT by TMA62 (TMA62)
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To: GOPGuide
F*** Arizona....I think they deserve McCain and Derek Anderson. Ain't nothing but Florida West.
33 posted on 03/18/2010 7:31:20 AM PDT by Niteranger68 (Barack Obama is Osama bin Laden's relief pitcher.)
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To: rintense

How many of them endorsed McCain during the last election and how many of them support him as of now?


34 posted on 03/18/2010 7:31:21 AM PDT by Evil Slayer (Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war)
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To: GOPGuide

We have the big amnesty for illegals march coming up in Washington Sunday, and the big amnesty pushers are trying to get a bill moving in Congress. These factors will probably serve to remind people of Juan’s past role of Senator Amnesty from Arizona, and focus more attention on this race.


35 posted on 03/18/2010 7:32:41 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Sarah-bot
Hey Megan!

Looks like your daddy Juan McAmnesty will be returning to your beer ranch soon!

LOL!!!

36 posted on 03/18/2010 7:33:12 AM PDT by newfreep (Palin/DeMint 2012 - Bolton: Secy of State)
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To: Niteranger68
Ain't nothing but Florida West

Nah, that's just Mesa and Sun City.

But good line anyway...

37 posted on 03/18/2010 7:33:53 AM PDT by Regulator (Welcome to Zimbabwe! Now hand over your property....)
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To: Evil Slayer

Explain why that is relevant. An endorsement is an endorsement.


38 posted on 03/18/2010 7:33:59 AM PDT by rintense (Only dead fish go with the flow, which explains why Congress stinks.)
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To: ohiobuckeye1997

Just wait...the fix is in. What will the Republican leadership do to screw this up for JD?


39 posted on 03/18/2010 7:34:12 AM PDT by LachlanMinnesota
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To: battletank

Don’t the GOP voters in Arizona have minds of their own? Is Palin that powerful that she can make people vote for a candidate aginst their will? The big question is whether the Hayworth supporters will throw their votes to McCain if he wins the primary or sit out and let a Democrat take the seat.


40 posted on 03/18/2010 7:34:53 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: Niteranger68
F*** Arizona....I think they deserve McCain and Derek Anderson. Ain't nothing but Florida West.

The problem with that is, if Arizona gets McCain, the Republican party and the entire nation gets the backstabbing little weasel.

41 posted on 03/18/2010 7:35:31 AM PDT by Will88
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To: rintense
Hunter endorsed Huckabee

Tancredo endorsed Romney

DeMint endorsed Romney

Pawlenty endorsed McCain

Thompson endorsed McCain

Newt endorsed Scozzafava

Santorum endorsed Specter

Rubio endorsed Huckabee

Santorum endorsed Romney

Scott Brown endorsed Rommey

Ann Coulter endorsed Romney

Mark Levin endorsed Romney

Dick Cheney endorsed McCain

Thune endorsed McCain

Jindahl endorsed McCain

Huckabee endorsed McCain

Bachmann endorsed McCain/Palin

Ron Paul endorsed Chuck Baldwin

Forgot one:

Paul Ryan endorsed McCain for President

42 posted on 03/18/2010 7:35:38 AM PDT by rintense (Only dead fish go with the flow, which explains why Congress stinks.)
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To: Evil Slayer

I hope, we don’t end up splitting the votes in novemember. It is getting nasty. Whoever wins in this race, should win by a clear margin and focus the attention on getting the democrats out in November.


43 posted on 03/18/2010 7:35:56 AM PDT by Ranjit
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To: rintense
Explain why that is relevant. An endorsement is an endorsement.

Very simple. McCain was the lesser of two evils during the election. Not so this time around if we get a REAL conservative running against the One.

44 posted on 03/18/2010 7:36:36 AM PDT by Evil Slayer (Onward, Christian soldiers, marching as to war)
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To: Bigtigermike
While I don’t like the support of mcVain, I understand why...

Well that's the thing, I DON'T understand why she is supporting him. I also don't buy that whole argument of "well, McCain was good enough when you voted for him last fall against Obama" - and "Sarah would be pounded for saying he was the right candidate last fall and then to say he wasn't the right one now".

BS!!!

Last fall it was a choice between the liberal McCain ticket, somewhat tempered by the more conservative Sarah Palin - and the UBER-liberal Obama. Now, the voters have a choice between the liberal McCain and a more conservative candidate. It's a totally different choice!

And now, there are people that would have me buy the argument that Sarah's misplaced loyalty to McCain OUTWEIGHS her loyalty to the American people! It doesn't wash in my book - and my Sarah Palin bumper sticker goes off my vehicle if she goes ahead next week and campaigns for McCain. I will not blindly follow anyone over a cliff - no matter how much I like them!

45 posted on 03/18/2010 7:37:33 AM PDT by alicewonders
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To: GOPGuide

Assuming no health breakdown just before the election, I think McCain narrowly wins.


46 posted on 03/18/2010 7:38:18 AM PDT by tlb
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To: alicewonders

What’s up with a 20+ gap among women? McCain is seem as more sympathetic? ... any thoughts??


47 posted on 03/18/2010 7:38:37 AM PDT by magritte (There are moments, Jeeves, when one asks oneself "Do trousers matter?")
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To: Russ
The big question is whether the Hayworth supporters will throw their votes to McCain if he wins the primary or sit out and let a Democrat take the seat.

Personally, if JD doesn't defeat Juan, I'd rather see a Dim be the next senator from Arizona. A backstabber and underminer within the ranks is more damaging than a known member of the other party. McCain needs to be purged.

48 posted on 03/18/2010 7:39:52 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Evil Slayer
First of all, Palin committed to supporting McCain before Hayworth entered the race. Second, Rush has echoed the same sentiment as freepers on this regarding Palin endorsing McCain. Yes, it sucks and most of her supporters wish she would change her mind, but we *understand* why she is doing this. When McCain loses, I'd bet my house she'll support and campaign for JD.

I think someone's past endorsements are entirely in play because its the only way you can see a pattern. Considering Sarah's other endorsements, dancing with the one who brung ya doesn't bother me (as much as I loathe McCain).

49 posted on 03/18/2010 7:40:28 AM PDT by rintense (Only dead fish go with the flow, which explains why Congress stinks.)
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To: magritte
What’s up with a 20+ gap among women? McCain is seem as more sympathetic? ... any thoughts??

Woman love Sarah Palin - she is campaigning for McCain - do the math. Like it or not people - she is HELPING McCain!

50 posted on 03/18/2010 7:43:16 AM PDT by alicewonders
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