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They Still Donít Have the Votes
NRO ^ | 3/20/2010 | Jeffrey Anderson

Posted on 03/20/2010 1:02:50 PM PDT by Uncledave

They Still Don’t Have the Votes [Jeffrey H. Anderson]

The most likely explanation for the breakdown of talks between Rep. Bart Stupak and Speaker Nancy Pelosi is not that Pelosi decided she didn’t need Stupak and his crew in order to have enough votes to pass Obamacare. Rather, it is that Stupak — who is increasingly emerging as this drama’s Jefferson Smith (Jimmy Stewart’s heroic character in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington) — held firm in insisting on language that would truly prevent taxpayer-funded abortions, and in insisting that such language be passed by the Senate before the bill could become law.

In turn, Pelosi either decided that by accepting the language, she would lose more votes in the House than she would gain, or else knew that Democratic senators, with their strong preference for taxpayer-funded abortion, would never go along with this concession to the views of the vast majority of Americans.

In any event, by all accounts, Pelosi is now trying to pass the bill without the pro-life Democratic vote — or at least without Stupak. As of now, it doesn’t appear that she has the votes. I currently count 208 leaning in favor of Obamacare and 214 leaning against, with 9 undecided. Here they are — with the margin by which the presidential vote was won (by one party or the other) in their districts over the last three elections:

• Marion Berry (D., Ark.) (GOP +8) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Henry Cuellar (D., Tex.) (Dem +1) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Bill Foster (D., Ill.) (GOP +4)

• Jim Matheson (D., Utah) (GOP +30) — with nearly two-thirds of his constituents having supported GOP presidential candidates over the last three elections, a “yes” vote on Stupak, and an earlier “no” vote on Obamacare, a “yes” vote would mean that, for the rest of his days, he would be remembered as the guy who sold his vote for the price of Obama’s having just nominated his brother to a federal judgeship

• Michael Michaud (D., Me.) (Dem +7) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Solomon Ortiz (D., Tex.) (GOP +1) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Earl Pomeroy (D., N.D.) (GOP +21) — pro-Stupak Amendment — yes, that’s GOP +21

• Nick Rahall (D., W.V.) (GOP +6) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Zach Space (D., Ohio) (GOP +12) — pro-Stupak Amendment

Also, here is a partial list of some particularly key members who are leaning “no”:

• Christopher Carney (D., Pa.) (GOP +15) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Dan Lipinski (D., Ill.) (Dem +22) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Kathleen Dahlkemper (D., Pa.) (GOP +3) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Glenn Nye (D., Va.) (GOP +9) — “no” last time


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 111th; bhohealthcare; heathcare; nro; obamacare
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To: pnut22

That is my question too. At this point people should be asking themselves why they should save him. He’s acting like Nero, people are sick of it, so why should they save him? If this healthcare thing is the only thing he focused his presidency on, they should also be asking themselves why this is.


101 posted on 03/20/2010 1:50:37 PM PDT by midnightcat
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To: TexasNative2000

If it looks like it might fail, Madame Speaker will pull it at the last minute.


102 posted on 03/20/2010 1:50:44 PM PDT by what's up
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To: Red Steel

Agree...also trying to create momentum. But that would be like the Titanic speeding up while sinking.


103 posted on 03/20/2010 1:52:06 PM PDT by Blue Turtle
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To: unkus
I still believe there will be some surprise “no” votes.

That would sure be a nice surprise. It'd be delicious to watch the look on Nancy's face as she realizes she's being stiffed. I don't think that will happen though. We're projecting our disdain for the witch onto her rat colleagues. There is a reason they became rat members of congress, and it wasn't to stick it to their speaker, no matter how disgusting normal people find her.

104 posted on 03/20/2010 1:52:27 PM PDT by Minn (Here is a realistic picture of the prophet: ----> ([: {()
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To: Names Ash Housewares

Has Dahlkemper committed to NO?


105 posted on 03/20/2010 1:52:44 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: Arkinsaw

And Carney is now a yes.


106 posted on 03/20/2010 1:53:25 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Only stupid, racists people support Obama.)
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To: what's up

I hope you’re right! First time ever, today I heard my LDS landlords say a swear word. LOL

btw, tomorrow is Matheson’s 50th birthday. No kidding.


107 posted on 03/20/2010 1:54:21 PM PDT by Daisyjane69 (Michael Reagan: "Welcome back, Dad, even if you're wearing a dress and bearing children this time)
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To: j.argese

Go medieval on the bastards!
______________________—

I love your thinking!


108 posted on 03/20/2010 1:54:28 PM PDT by unkus
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To: midnightcat

Healthcare is just the beginning of Obama taking over the US, then the world. While I am not crazy about newly elected Senator Brown, his vote may be the one that can save us. I do see one tiny bit of good that has come out of the healthcare fiasco. With the rejection of demon pass, the congress has rejected to a small degree rule by presidential fiat.


109 posted on 03/20/2010 1:54:34 PM PDT by pnut22
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To: Sarah Barracuda

TheHill.com still has him at undecided.


110 posted on 03/20/2010 1:54:35 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Only stupid, racists people support Obama.)
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To: RebelTXRose

Obama’s Wellstone minute....


111 posted on 03/20/2010 1:57:37 PM PDT by maxsand
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To: Uncledave

Yes they do have the votes. It is over. America will never be the same.


112 posted on 03/20/2010 1:58:27 PM PDT by montag813
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To: Minn

Unfortunately, I’m afraid you’re right.


113 posted on 03/20/2010 1:58:45 PM PDT by unkus
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To: CaptainK

“So why is the MSM (including Fox) acting as though it’s in the bag?”

Because the left wing media—and YES, FOX is included—is simply reporting whatever it is told by its friends in the democrat party. And the DC left figures calling it a done deal will become a self fulfilling prophecy.


114 posted on 03/20/2010 2:01:34 PM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Tribune7

I guess whoever posted it yesterday was wrong


115 posted on 03/20/2010 2:02:23 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Oldpuppymax

Fox is especially acting like it’s in the bag. They are intolerable today. Had to turn them off.


116 posted on 03/20/2010 2:03:05 PM PDT by jersey117
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To: montag813

Despite them dribbling out a few at the last minute to create as much drama as possible, they do not have the votes.


117 posted on 03/20/2010 2:03:19 PM PDT by what's up
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To: mwl8787; All

“Has Dahlkemper committed to NO?”

I don’t know, but this isn’t good.......

http://thehayride.com/2010/03/no-bill-no-cbo-numbers-bad-sign-for-obamacare/

Update 3-20, 4:00 PM: Stupak now says that his numbers are down to about six. If that is indeed the case, then Obamacare will pass.


118 posted on 03/20/2010 2:03:24 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: Oldpuppymax

I agree!! Remember, this is the same BS the media pulled in 2008..remember, “Dont bother voting, Obama has this thing in the bag” perhaps if more people had come out to vote McCain would have won..the media(And yes your right about Fox, the last few days I have noticed their giddyness over Obama) is promoting the Obama agenda, if they had the votes they would have voted yesterday


119 posted on 03/20/2010 2:03:45 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Names Ash Housewares

Let’s hope Mark Levin and others an repeal this..if this passes, America as we know it is finished


120 posted on 03/20/2010 2:04:54 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Maybe not. TheHill.Com is not some authority from on high. Nobody is really going to know until tomorrow.


121 posted on 03/20/2010 2:06:00 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Only stupid, racists people support Obama.)
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To: Uncledave

bttt


122 posted on 03/20/2010 2:06:43 PM PDT by hattend (The era of John McCain is over, the era of Ronald Reagan is back! Go Sarah Go!)
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To: CaptainK

I know. I can’t believe Fox is doing this.


123 posted on 03/20/2010 2:08:24 PM PDT by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: what's up
Anything that sucks the wind out of their latest/current momentum is fine by me.

Each smaller FAIL leading to the Grand FAIL.
124 posted on 03/20/2010 2:08:56 PM PDT by CaptSkip
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“Let’s hope Mark Levin and others an repeal this..if this passes, America as we know it is finished”

We keep fighting, we will umtimately win.
The vast majority of the American people are against this thing. We must never give up. Never.


125 posted on 03/20/2010 2:10:59 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: midnightcat

So do they have the votes or not? I read 3 posts that say it’s over; I read 3 more that say they don’t have the votes; and so on and so on....FOX news is sounding like PMSNBC today....

Does anyone know??? I can’t watch any more tv.


126 posted on 03/20/2010 2:15:27 PM PDT by NurseZac
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To: TexasNative2000

They already have 209. Everyone has their price. Pelosi and crew just need to buy off 8 more of the spineless weasels. Its over folks.


127 posted on 03/20/2010 2:16:48 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
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To: DanielRedfoot

You are absolutely right; my parents were Dems and had NO idea what was really going on. They just watched a D channel thru their D-colored glasses, got a few talking points so they could ‘give their opinion’ and moved on...

I LUV this idea...infiltration & deception cannot be overlooked as a means to an end.
Why should we just have Liberal Conservatives? Why can’t we have Conservative “Liberals” (wink wink)-

We can’t just ‘think outside the box’-we have to ACT INSIDE the box....

SZQ


128 posted on 03/20/2010 2:16:54 PM PDT by homegroan (*Vote Kitteh & Squirrel 2012*!....ILLIGITIMA NON CARBORUNDUM..... -that's 4U Dad!))
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To: RKBA Democrat
RKBA Democrat said...”Bela Pelosi is never going to lose her seat to a Republican. It just ain’t gonna happen. And if a Republican runs against her, she simply ignores the challenge, secure in the knowledge that in her district, there is little chance that a Republican will win.”

Tell that to Scott Brown.

129 posted on 03/20/2010 2:18:01 PM PDT by Country Eagle
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To: Sarah Barracuda

“perhaps if more people had come out to vote McCain would have won.”

Perhaps if McDonkey wasn’t on the ticket, more people would have come out for the GOP candidate.


130 posted on 03/20/2010 2:18:13 PM PDT by Grunthor (Mary was the temple of God, not the god of the temple)
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To: Grunthor

You have a point


131 posted on 03/20/2010 2:21:56 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: NurseZac; All

The latest from Eric Cantor moments ago is that it is still very fluid and they haven’t given up yet...per NRO.


132 posted on 03/20/2010 2:22:05 PM PDT by Sea2ShiningSea
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To: RightWingNilla
Pelosi and crew just need to buy off 8 more of the spineless weasels.

If she hasn't got them now she better get moving. Time is running out.

I was sure Altmire was going to be a yes and when he said he was a no I was sure it was because I though Ninny P had it in the back and was cutting him slack in a tough district.

But it's clear she could use his vote and I suspect a lot of the undecideds are thinking strongly about voting no.

133 posted on 03/20/2010 2:24:01 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Only stupid, racists people support Obama.)
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To: Tribune7

Stupak’s coalition is folding like a cheap suit.


134 posted on 03/20/2010 2:25:22 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
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To: NurseZac
Does anyone know???

No. So keep praying and don't get discouraged.

135 posted on 03/20/2010 2:25:32 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Only stupid, racists people support Obama.)
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To: Ron C.

Yeah me too.


136 posted on 03/20/2010 2:28:01 PM PDT by Ladycalif ("If you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one." Jesus)
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To: RightWingNilla

Where are you getting that from?


137 posted on 03/20/2010 2:28:53 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Only stupid, racists people support Obama.)
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To: Tribune7

Over at the live thread...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2475327/posts?page=1100#1100


138 posted on 03/20/2010 2:32:27 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
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To: Uncledave

Thanks for that breakout ....of the no’s.


139 posted on 03/20/2010 2:33:59 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: pnut22

**We must pray.**

And continue to pray.


140 posted on 03/20/2010 2:39:30 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: RightWingNilla
TheHill.Com just had an update at 5:19 p.m. and does not indicate that.

They have been saying that Stupak's coalition was breaking apart all week.

I'm going to assume it's not until I see more than an unsourced post

141 posted on 03/20/2010 2:39:33 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Only stupid, racists people support Obama.)
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To: Tribune7

I hope you are right my friend. I dont know what to believe anymore.


142 posted on 03/20/2010 2:43:14 PM PDT by RightWingNilla
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To: pnut22

*ugh* ambition like Napoleon or the Antichrist! Still you can’t tell me that some of these politicians aren’t angry at him and what he’s asking them to do. I want to see some of their anger at him. It doesn’t make sense that some of them wouldn’t resent him for what he’s putting them through.


143 posted on 03/20/2010 2:43:44 PM PDT by midnightcat
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To: RightWingNilla

We will find out tomorrow.


144 posted on 03/20/2010 2:44:41 PM PDT by Tribune7 (Only stupid, racists people support Obama.)
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To: TexasNative2000; Travis McGee
That's why I think this deal fails by a No vote of over 230. There are probably 15 - 20 Dems who will wait until they see the "No" vote reach 216, then they vote against it for their political survival.

It looks like Jim Matheson is in that particular leaky canoe. His problem is that the fact that he has held out this long will doom his chances or reelection. On this, he likely can be counted as a yes vote to pay his brothers piper, unless the 216 hits before his vote is called for. He is a truly a disappointment. His father was a good man.

145 posted on 03/20/2010 2:46:38 PM PDT by glock rocks (Wait, what?)
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To: Uncledave; All

Fox said they have 218. I hope that’s wrong.

However, with dropping deem and pass, a win for them is MUCH more likely.


146 posted on 03/20/2010 2:46:49 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: midnightcat

Just a thought. If you were planning to vote no, would you say it today?


147 posted on 03/20/2010 2:47:00 PM PDT by pnut22
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To: glock rocks
s/b chances of reelection
148 posted on 03/20/2010 2:47:44 PM PDT by glock rocks (Wait, what?)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

I feel bad that I’m not in Washington today so I thought I can at least send some money to Landmark Legal, so I did.


149 posted on 03/20/2010 2:51:00 PM PDT by jonathonandjennifer
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To: Uncledave
We have been scammed! This recent episode of Congress passing Healthcare Reform has been a vast manipulation of events by the Democratic Party with the active aid of the Media. This pretense by Democrats of difficulty passing a bill, when they have overwhelming numbers in the United States House of Representatives, is a way to pretend President Barack Obama has achieved some kind of great victory. Obama’s poll numbers have been dropping and there have been no achievements in his first year as President, So the Democrats dreamt up a plan to pretend how hard it is to be President and how difficult it is too pass a bill in Congress. The Democratic Party along with their allies in the media knew the outcome; but by building up the suspense, having Obama cancel his planned trips, they hope to enhance the political value of passing the Healthcare Bill.

In order to have a win they intentionally divided the country into two opposing groups and now with a bare majority in the U.S. Senate they intend to make major changes to our Country and in the process impose their will on anyone who disagrees with them. There is a reason why the necessity of super majorities was enshrined in Senate rules. Routine business should be passed with simple majorities but whenever government tries to impose major changes on an opposing group the bill should have overwhelming support in congress and throughout the Country.

Even such necessary major changes as the elimination of slavery or civil rights legislation were accomplished because an overwhelming majority came together to pass Constitutional Amendments or to pass legislation. When a bare Congressional majority attempts to impose major changes, even in the face of opposition by a majority of the citizens; it breeds cynicism, distrust and contempt for our government and the officials who pretend to represent us. Even if you believe that Obama Care will dramatically improve healthcare, the way it was accomplished caused significant harm to the country as a whole. But then for Democrats the chance to claim a win trumps any real concern for the good of the country.

150 posted on 03/20/2010 2:53:01 PM PDT by Libertarianize the GOP (Make all taxes truly voluntary)
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