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Plotting the Next Mideast War
Wall Street Journal ^

Posted on 04/20/2010 7:05:10 AM PDT by jhpigott

Syria's alleged transfer of Scuds to Hezbollah could spark an uncontrollable chain reaction.

In the matter of Syria's alleged shipments of Scud missiles to Hezbollah, it bears noting how often the fate of the Middle East has turned on seemingly trivial or nearly imperceptible events. There's a simple explanation for this: That which cannot be seen or understood at first can rarely be contained in time.

It was not the Israeli government's intention to leak intelligence that Syria had transferred the missiles, which can hit every city in Israel with a one-ton payload. The Israeli defense establishment was particularly keen to keep the matter quiet to protect its sources and methods. But in the way these things often happen in Israel, President Shimon Peres decided for reasons of his own that the issue belonged in the public domain. There it is now, raising a number of interesting questions.

In 1967, a series of seemingly minor events, tactical misjudgments, and particularly an Arab perception that the West would not honor its international commitments or come to Israel's defense triggered a war the consequences of which have defined the Middle East ever since. We are adrift in those same waters today.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 04/20/2010 7:05:10 AM PDT by jhpigott
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To: MississippiMan; ctdonath2; LibertyRocks; GonzoGOP; b4its2late; bert; maquiladora; hennie pennie; ...

ping


2 posted on 04/20/2010 7:06:04 AM PDT by jhpigott
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To: jhpigott

It should be clear to Israel that Obama will not help stop Iran unless it becomes nessessary to Wag the Dog for political purposes. They have to go it alone. How shameful. Obam is trying to turn the USA in to one big giant “Hog Farm” like the one in Taos in the 60’s.


3 posted on 04/20/2010 7:09:06 AM PDT by screaminsunshine (i)
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To: jhpigott

Peres should make it clear; a missile from Lebanon will mean retaliation for Damascus.


4 posted on 04/20/2010 7:09:37 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (Impeachment !)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

“Peres should make it clear; a missile from Lebanon will mean retaliation for Damascus.”

I thought he already did...


5 posted on 04/20/2010 7:14:36 AM PDT by babygene (Figures don't lie, but liars can figure...)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
"Peres should make it clear; a missile from Lebanon will mean retaliation for Damascus."

Syria plays this game of waging a proxy war and never receives the consequences of war directly. I agree with you. Any acts done by Hezbolla should be considered an act by Syria and dealt with appropriately.
6 posted on 04/20/2010 7:15:24 AM PDT by Old Teufel Hunden
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To: jhpigott

Joel 3 and Isaiah 17 come to mind as well as Psalm 83-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unyDYxwPf50


7 posted on 04/20/2010 7:15:24 AM PDT by pastorbillrandles
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

‘Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.’ Isaiah 17:1


8 posted on 04/20/2010 7:18:54 AM PDT by WmCraven_Wk
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To: babygene

He needs to repeat it.


9 posted on 04/20/2010 7:18:58 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (Impeachment !)
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To: jhpigott
Thanks for posting this. Read it this morning. I've been trying to think of how the SCUDs would be used. Thought they might be launched in concert with Iran going nuclear, but I didn't think of the Syrian angle. They'd like another Hezbollah rocket/missile shower to goad Israel into a conflict that Syria could use as a pretext to re-invade Lebanon. Looks like the Turks are now joining the anti-Israel crowd. Syria will be sitting on the throat of Lebanon again. This must what the regime considers progress.
10 posted on 04/20/2010 7:21:09 AM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid)
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To: throwback

The SCUDs don’t have to carry any WMD to be very dangerous, and I doubt that governments would want to risk the repercussions of using WMDs. They can carry a ton of explosives. That’s one big firecracker. What would a ton of explosives do to a city block? And then imagine dozens of them.


11 posted on 04/20/2010 7:25:50 AM PDT by Sender (It's never too late to be who you could have been.)
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To: screaminsunshine

We would have mid-east peace right now if our muslim POSIC had assisted the Iranian people when they were trying to break free. Nope, he stood silently by and helped A-jad stay in power. A free Iran - Hezbollah and Hamas go broke. Israel - safer.


12 posted on 04/20/2010 7:38:08 AM PDT by nolongerademocrat ("Before you ask G-d for something, first thank G-d for what you already have." B'rachot 30b)
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To: nolongerademocrat

OMG, I’ve started talking like Sarah Palin! haha


13 posted on 04/20/2010 7:42:00 AM PDT by nolongerademocrat ("Before you ask G-d for something, first thank G-d for what you already have." B'rachot 30b)
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To: Sender
True, that's a definite upgrade in destructiveness, and they can now reach every part of the country. I was trying to think of what the advantage of another air assault would be, though, since it still would not lead to a final solution. We'd see the same movie from 2006 with Israelis having to invade and wipe out the sites again. What's the point of waging an endless war that you never win? When you throw in the Syrians wanting to get their hand back in Lebanon, though, the futile attack makes sense.
14 posted on 04/20/2010 7:44:33 AM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid)
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To: nolongerademocrat

And I understood you, so Palin-speak must be a valid dialect now.


15 posted on 04/20/2010 7:49:39 AM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid)
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To: jhpigott

Israel has a missile defense capability, but whether it could handle a barrage of SCUDS remains to be seen. The wild card is Iran’s impending nuclear weapons. Iran could threaten nuclear retaliation against Israel for invading or attacking its Syrian puppet state. In any event, Israel cannot depend on the US for support as long as Obama is in the White House.


16 posted on 04/20/2010 8:11:39 AM PDT by The Great RJ ("The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money." M. Thatcher)
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To: throwback

I guess so. LOL


17 posted on 04/20/2010 8:16:30 AM PDT by nolongerademocrat ("Before you ask G-d for something, first thank G-d for what you already have." B'rachot 30b)
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To: jhpigott

jh, I’m unable to access the whole article. I know WSJ provides a “temp link” for non-subscribers, and maybe some threshold of viewers has been hit?

MM (in TX)


18 posted on 04/20/2010 8:53:42 AM PDT by MississippiMan (http://gogmagogblog.wordpress.com/)
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To: Old Teufel Hunden
"Any acts done by Hezbolla should be considered an act by Syria and dealt with appropriately."

We may soon find out the final destination of Iraqi Chemical and/or Biological weapons that were trucked into Syria on the eve of the war......

19 posted on 04/20/2010 8:58:01 AM PDT by Psalm 73 ("Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - this is the War Room".)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
"We will return Syria to the Stone Age by crippling its power stations, ports, fuel storage and every bit of strategic infrastructure if Hizbullah dare to launch ballistic missiles against us."

That's from an "anonymous minister" a couple days ago.

MM (in TX)

20 posted on 04/20/2010 9:04:59 AM PDT by MississippiMan (http://gogmagogblog.wordpress.com/)
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To: screaminsunshine
It should be clear to Israel that Obama will not help stop Iran unless it becomes nessessary to Wag the Dog for political purposes. They have to go it alone.

I think Israel understands. And while it's infuriating to watch this unfold, there's also the reality that this allows Israel to take the gloves off in dealing with these thugs.

It's also clear from prophecy that Israel will stand alone during some future attacks, with only herself and God standing against her enemies. From the moment it first became clear that Obama could win the presidency, I've expected this hideous abandonment of Israel. With that said, Obama has been far more brazen with his hatred of Israel than I expected.

MM (in TX)

21 posted on 04/20/2010 9:13:39 AM PDT by MississippiMan (http://gogmagogblog.wordpress.com/)
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To: jhpigott
Syria had transferred the missiles, which can hit every city in Israel with a one-ton payload.

Not good.

22 posted on 04/20/2010 9:14:09 AM PDT by b4its2late (Bawney Fwank's mother should have thrown him away and kept the stork.)
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To: pastorbillrandles
Could Psalm 83, Obadiah, and Isaiah 17 be separate elements of a single prophecy?

MM (in TX)

23 posted on 04/20/2010 12:04:05 PM PDT by MississippiMan (http://gogmagogblog.wordpress.com/)
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To: MississippiMan

I very much believe so- see
http://www.believersingrace.com/psalm83part1.html
http://www.believersingrace.com/psalm83part2.html
http://www.believersingrace.com/psalm83part3.html


24 posted on 04/20/2010 12:09:17 PM PDT by pastorbillrandles
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To: pastorbillrandles

Looks very interesting, will check it out for sure!

MM


25 posted on 04/20/2010 12:12:22 PM PDT by MississippiMan (http://gogmagogblog.wordpress.com/)
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To: MississippiMan

You might want to check this thread out-
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/2496741/posts


26 posted on 04/20/2010 12:17:52 PM PDT by pastorbillrandles
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To: throwback

......Thought they might be launched in concert with Iran going nuclear......

My take
The fact is, Iran presently has no nuclear capability and no way to respond should Israel attack their nuclear installations. The Scuds in Lebanon are the best defense Iran can muster.

If Israel attacks Iran, the response will come from Lebanon.


27 posted on 04/20/2010 1:42:54 PM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Ostracize Democrats. There can be no Democrat friends.)
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To: bert

Oh yeah, that didn’t even occur to me either. Maybe Iran wanted them in the area for counter strike or deterrence against a reactor hit. Assad may have said get these over the border because he didn’t want to give Israel any more reason to hit him. Maybe the administration is lying and they new full well they were on Syrian soil, and they told him if he wants to stay out of the next dust up, he better get rid of them.


28 posted on 04/20/2010 1:54:44 PM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

More likely than a "chain reaction", the end result will be played in the media as another example of Israeli aggression. Nice of the French to look the other way as Hizbollah rearmed.

29 posted on 04/20/2010 3:40:17 PM PDT by SJackson (Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel and it must remain undivided, Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: pastorbillrandles

Very well written pieces! BTW, it would be helpful to have links on the page to the next part. I had to come back here to your FR post to get the links to parts 2 and 3.

MM


30 posted on 04/20/2010 3:53:19 PM PDT by MississippiMan (http://gogmagogblog.wordpress.com/)
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To: AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; ...
Syria's alleged transfer of Scuds to Hezbollah could spark an uncontrollable chain reaction...It was not the Israeli government's intention to leak intelligence that Syria had transferred the missiles, which can hit every city in Israel with a one-ton payload. The Israeli defense establishment was particularly keen to keep the matter quiet to protect its sources and methods. But in the way these things often happen in Israel, President Shimon Peres decided for reasons of his own that the issue belonged in the public domain... In 1967, a series of seemingly minor events, tactical misjudgments, and particularly an Arab perception that the West would not honor its international commitments or come to Israel's defense triggered a war the consequences of which have defined the Middle East ever since. We are adrift in those same waters today.
Thanks jhpigott.
31 posted on 04/20/2010 4:40:30 PM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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To: screaminsunshine

“Hog Farm?”


32 posted on 04/20/2010 5:57:27 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (FUBO! FUNP! FUHR! FUBS!)
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To: Slings and Arrows

The big 1960’s commune in Taos N.M. It was in the movie Easy Rider.


33 posted on 04/20/2010 7:26:17 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (i)
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To: SunkenCiv

Damascus is in range of Israeli 175mm and 203mm artillery pieces on the Golan. The last time Israel and Syria fough in 1983, Syruia lost 87 aircraft and shot down none. (A few were taken down by SAMS, but their fighters were death traps.) Today, Syria is worse off compared to Israel. The only part of Syria that Israel would not level would be the port the Sovi.. er Russians have leased.


34 posted on 04/20/2010 8:13:28 PM PDT by rmlew (There is no such thing as a Blue Dog Democrat; just liberals who lie.)
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To: screaminsunshine

Ah, thanks!


35 posted on 04/20/2010 9:01:06 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (FUBO! FUNP! FUHR! FUBS!)
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To: pastorbillrandles

Have you read this book by Bill Salus ?

Isralestine: The Ancient Blueprints of the Future Middle East

http://www.amazon.com/Isralestine-Ancient-Blueprints-Future-Middle/dp/098149577X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1271831458&sr=1-1

It is based on Psalms 83. I heard him interviewed on Radio Liberty, Dr Stanley Monteith’s program last Saturday.

I’m going to listen to your youtube talks;-)


36 posted on 04/20/2010 11:36:06 PM PDT by happygrl (Continuing to predict that 0bama will resign)
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To: rmlew

Syria is worse off in part because its young people don’t want to spend the three years or four years or whatever starting at age 18 in the compulsory military service, and many leave before that birthday to start their lives where there are jobs (Kuwait, for example — one reason Syria was in the Gulf War coalition) that pay well. The dictatorship tried an amnesty program back around 2001, it did not go well. Years ago the King of Morocco (who had his own troubles with Islamofascists) said in interview, imagine how the Israelis and Arabs could transform the region if they were at peace and working together. Yeah, or, imagine how the Israelis could transform the region if they lived there by themselves, and you get the same answer.


37 posted on 04/22/2010 5:50:55 PM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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