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Primary Results Live Thread - AL, MS, NM
Politico ^ | 6/1/10 | Politico

Posted on 06/01/2010 5:46:41 PM PDT by randita

Discuss the primary results in Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico. Link for results:


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Alabama; US: Mississippi; US: New Mexico
KEYWORDS: 2010midterms; al; al2010; keyhouseraces; khr; ms; ms2010; nm; nm2010; primary
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To: SoConPubbie; IYAS9YAS; CedarDave; SoCalPol; Allegra

So much for Kokesh and the like-minded, crackpot Ron Paul that endorsed him.

Sarah’s candidate, Susana Martinez won!

A very GOOD night for New Mexico Republicans.

On to winning in Novemeber!

141 posted on 06/01/2010 9:34:39 PM PDT by onyx (Sarah/Michele 2012)
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To: onyx

Not to mention Mass. passing an AZ bill.

check your e mail

142 posted on 06/01/2010 9:38:57 PM PDT by SoCalPol (Reagan Republican for Palin 2012)
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To: onyx
On to winning in Novemeber!

143 posted on 06/01/2010 9:41:06 PM PDT by CedarDave (Arrogant Obama on tax day protesters: "YouÂ’d think they would be saying 'Thank You!'.")
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To: SoConPubbie; onyx
It's a great day when a jerk lik Kokesh is defeated.

It certainly is.

Good riddance to the Code Pink, surrender-monkey, Paulbot scum.

144 posted on 06/01/2010 9:42:57 PM PDT by Allegra (Pablo is very wily.)
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To: AzaleaCity5691

Well, you never know. Ivey still managed to win the primary, so perhaps she’s not nearly as unelectable as you think. If it ends up a Bentley-James runoff on the Gov side, who will you vote for ? I never paid much attention to Bentley. My concern about him seems to be age. Still, I think the GOP is going to be heavily favored this year, if only because of the national climate. Sparks running to the left of the liberal (but not moonbat) Davis to win the Dem nod for Governor won’t help him in the general against any of our guys.

I see Vivian Figures won over Herman “Ben Dover” Thomas down in Mobile.

145 posted on 06/01/2010 9:44:28 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

I’d have to vote Bentley. I have voted against members of the James family every time they have been on the ballot starting in 1986. I don’t intend on breaking a long held tradition of mine now.

I tend to disagree with you at least on statewide races. The national climate is anti-Dem but at least right now, the state issue profile favors the Dems this year. Most of our Republican statewide incumbents have had/have ethical issues that swirl around them.

I think with corruption being a key issue the statewide races where they have competent candidates favors them, while the legislature definitely favors us because they control all of it.

And Sparks may have ran to the left of Davis, but it wasn’t on gun control, wasn’t on affirmative action, wasn’t on abortion. He ran to the left by running an Alabama economic populist campaign (which still are popular) against Davis’s detached BCA-liberal intellectual style. Sparks also doesn’t have a college education. That helps him immensely politically.

I’m sort of shocked by the Figures-Thomas race (thought Thomas had a better shot) but I can’t say I’m upset with the result. I may disagree with most everything Figures stands for but at least she won’t embarass the city.

Ivey was able to win the primary because of name recognition and because she had no real opponent. Also, the PACT vote was split between both parties in the primary.

The reason Ivey can’t win is because she is the Martha Coakley of Alabama. During the PACT meetings last year, even Folsom, who missed half of them and has in general looked like all his energy died, at least came off as sympathetic to PACT parents.

The general opinion of how Kay Ivey reacted (per PACTers) would use multiple derogatory cusswords towards her. She came off as aloof, detached from reality and totally unconcerned as all these working class Alabamians and good ole boys came before that committee begging and pleading for her to save the program.

There are around 40-60k pact contracts in the state I think. That could be worth as many as 250,000-300,000 votes in the general based parents, friends of parents, aunts, uncles, etc.

That PACT vote is going to be dead set against Ivey from the beginning and Paul Hubbert will be all to happy to funnel money to the PACT groups to run ads non-stop on Ivey. Simply put, we can’t claim Ivey. We can’t give her real support and we can’t make her a major part of our effort. If we throw in with her then that gives Hubbert and and the AEA a powerful weapon with which they can probably retain the legislature.

(*Disclaimer, I hold PACT contracts for all my kids so my views are clouded a bit by that, of course I can self-finance my kids education still if it goes broke, something most PACT contract holders can’t do and for many people, if PACT goes their kids don’t get a college education. That’s what makes it such a major issue in this state.)

146 posted on 06/01/2010 9:58:58 PM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
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To: AzaleaCity5691

I see Luther Strange knocked off Troy King, too. It’s just very hard to see the state turning back to the bad old days of Dems winning statewide offices. In the ‘80s, you could still have center-right guys winning Dem primaries, but not anymore. The state parties are becoming a reflection of the national, moving further and further left (up here in TN, there was expected to be a highly contested Dem Gubernatorial primary, but the Dems all dropped out except for the son of a prior Dem Governor, their collective conclusion is that the Dems simply can’t win the office this year). The GOP is moving to being the reflexive majority party, and only unless a statewide candidate is seriously flawed will they lose. That’s why I expect a near across-the-ballot sweep. If we don’t knock off Folsom, I don’t know what he thinks he’s going to do. He couldn’t win the Governorship. I just hope we at least claim the State Senate and strip him of his powers if he does manage to win again (like what the Dems did to Steve Windom).

BTW, your Coakley example, it’s well worth pointing out she is running again for reelection in MA, and apparently won’t even have a GOP opponent. Although AL is nowhere near as pro-GOP as MA is pro-Dem, I wouldn’t dismiss Ivey’s chances. Look at 2006 when even the most flawed of Dem incumbents got swept in, and 2010 might similarly sweep in or hold flawed GOP incumbents and challengers nationwide.

147 posted on 06/01/2010 10:10:10 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: AzaleaCity5691
Governor (GOP) - 96% reporting

1. r B. Byrne . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137,093 5. R. Moore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94,425
2. R. Bentley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123,321 6. J. Potts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,525
3. T. James . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123,181 7. C. Taylor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,585
4. B. Johnson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,289

Byrne is in the runoff with James/Bentley WAY too close to call for the other spot.

The runoff should be interesting. Turnout should be way down and both candidates need to get from the <30% range to over 50%. They need to pick up a lot of support.

It is good that Paul Hubbard failed to knock Byrne out of the race.

148 posted on 06/01/2010 10:15:23 PM PDT by Onelifetogive (Flame away...)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

I’ll tell you something. I think this is his last run. He won’t let let himself get beat by someone as hated as Kay Ivey but I do think its his last run.

The Democratic nomination could have been his without question this year. He didn’t run. He chose the easy race of Lt. Governor where he didn’t have an opponent and where his staying kept all good candidates out on our side. The fact that he chose the easy race/guaranteed race over the slugfest that the governor’s race was tells me that Folsom is now more concerned with legacy than any actual power and wants to be remembered in Alabama history without as many of the negative points his daddy had.

I think Folsom wants four years as Lt. Governor where he is beholden to no one and can be a bridge builder and then ride back off into Cullman to play with the grandkids.

149 posted on 06/01/2010 10:23:26 PM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
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To: AzaleaCity5691

Well, we shall see how it turns out. Think Luther Strange will be able to hold the AG’s office without a problem ?

150 posted on 06/01/2010 10:31:31 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Depends on a lot of things. Strange’s biggest weakness right now is that he’s a Montgomery lobbyist. I voted for King because of the bingo issue and I thought he stood a better chance in the fall.

I think he’s defeatable if his opponent actually has money and makes a point of how his ties to virtually every big interest in the state might make it impossible for him to play the role of “consumer advocate” that Alabamians expect out of an AG. King tried to capitalize on that by using the oil spill in ads against Strange.

The other thing is that King is from Dothan. This gambling thing has put one of the states most important Republican counties in direct opposition to Bob Riley and the taskforce. It was one of the reasons King began to shift on gambling.

If the Dem candidate is half competent and has money, Houston County will be up for grabs in the Ag race. I can already tell you it will be in the governors race because gambling is the hottest issue there and the county’s GOP establishment has openly broke with Riley on this.

151 posted on 06/01/2010 10:38:44 PM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
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To: Falcon28
What happened to Les Phillips?

He never got any traction -- 15% +/-. The good news for the GOP (other than the fact that Parker Griffith got STOMPED) is that no runoff will be necessary: preserving Mo's money and preventing another unwanted invasion by the Republican Congressional "leadership" to prop up The Turncoat. I also like the volume of Republican votes vs. the Dem primary turnout.

152 posted on 06/01/2010 10:43:50 PM PDT by alancarp (Please don't tell Obama what comes after "trillion")
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To: randita


153 posted on 06/01/2010 10:51:20 PM PDT by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: CedarDave; All

Sounds like Susana Martinez is for a number of things that even democrats could support.

154 posted on 06/01/2010 10:58:28 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: alancarp; Onelifetogive

I think there is going to be a recount in the primary. Bentley and James are just too close to each other for there not to be.

As for the 5th I just have one word of caution.

Roughly 70,000 votes were cast in the Republican primary, which was roughly 20,000 more than the 50,000 cast in the Democratic primary. It looks good in theory but theres just one problem.

In Madison County, roughly 39,000 of 52,000 votes (75%) were cast in the Republican Primary. That percentage is roughly equal to the white population of the county. Madison County in no way goes 75% Republican in general elections meaning many white Democrats in Madison crossed party lines probably for this race and the sheriff’s race.

More significantly though, roughly 55% of all the Republican primary votes came from Madison (and I assume if you add Morgan and Limestone that almost covers the Republican vote)

By contrast, if you subtract Madison from the equation in District 5, 37,000 voters outside of Madison County chose the Dem primary while 31,000 chose the Rep primary.

Brooks can certainly win but he can’t let Raby paint him as the candidate of a certain Mountain Brook like neighborhood in Huntsville (and Madison, etc). If he does Raby could defeat him. He is a long time political veteran in the region and has run campaigns in both parties.

155 posted on 06/01/2010 11:14:57 PM PDT by AzaleaCity5691
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To: AzaleaCity5691; AuH2ORepublican; Impy

I was noticing Steve Raby has a moustache and goatee while Mo Brooks is clean-shaven. FReeper Auh2orepublican has a theory that clean-shaven candidates have an advantage over the facially hirsute. Personally, I have no bias in that direction, since I also have a moustache and goatee... ;-)

156 posted on 06/01/2010 11:24:18 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Amber Lamps !"~~)
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To: randita

Tea Party candidate (Moser) got only 16% of vote against Shelby.

157 posted on 06/02/2010 12:34:05 AM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: AzaleaCity5691

Do you think the suicide contributed to the loss?

158 posted on 06/02/2010 12:49:50 AM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: CedarDave

Hi CedarDave! Long time no see you! Miss you over at the Mark Levin thread and your old train pictures!:)=^..^=

159 posted on 06/02/2010 2:32:55 AM PDT by Biggirl (I Have A New Rainbow Bridge Baby, Negritia! =^..^=)
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To: randita

Parker Griffith is defeated and rightfully so. Good riddance, the RINOs and DEMONcrats have to go!

160 posted on 06/02/2010 3:15:07 AM PDT by Paige ("All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing," Edmund Burke)
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