Skip to comments.Primary Results Live Thread - AL, MS, NM
Posted on 06/01/2010 5:46:41 PM PDT by randita
Discuss the primary results in Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico. Link for results:
Depends on a lot of things. Strange’s biggest weakness right now is that he’s a Montgomery lobbyist. I voted for King because of the bingo issue and I thought he stood a better chance in the fall.
I think he’s defeatable if his opponent actually has money and makes a point of how his ties to virtually every big interest in the state might make it impossible for him to play the role of “consumer advocate” that Alabamians expect out of an AG. King tried to capitalize on that by using the oil spill in ads against Strange.
The other thing is that King is from Dothan. This gambling thing has put one of the states most important Republican counties in direct opposition to Bob Riley and the taskforce. It was one of the reasons King began to shift on gambling.
If the Dem candidate is half competent and has money, Houston County will be up for grabs in the Ag race. I can already tell you it will be in the governors race because gambling is the hottest issue there and the county’s GOP establishment has openly broke with Riley on this.
He never got any traction -- 15% +/-. The good news for the GOP (other than the fact that Parker Griffith got STOMPED) is that no runoff will be necessary: preserving Mo's money and preventing another unwanted invasion by the Republican Congressional "leadership" to prop up The Turncoat. I also like the volume of Republican votes vs. the Dem primary turnout.
Sounds like Susana Martinez is for a number of things that even democrats could support.
I think there is going to be a recount in the primary. Bentley and James are just too close to each other for there not to be.
As for the 5th I just have one word of caution.
Roughly 70,000 votes were cast in the Republican primary, which was roughly 20,000 more than the 50,000 cast in the Democratic primary. It looks good in theory but theres just one problem.
In Madison County, roughly 39,000 of 52,000 votes (75%) were cast in the Republican Primary. That percentage is roughly equal to the white population of the county. Madison County in no way goes 75% Republican in general elections meaning many white Democrats in Madison crossed party lines probably for this race and the sheriff’s race.
More significantly though, roughly 55% of all the Republican primary votes came from Madison (and I assume if you add Morgan and Limestone that almost covers the Republican vote)
By contrast, if you subtract Madison from the equation in District 5, 37,000 voters outside of Madison County chose the Dem primary while 31,000 chose the Rep primary.
Brooks can certainly win but he can’t let Raby paint him as the candidate of a certain Mountain Brook like neighborhood in Huntsville (and Madison, etc). If he does Raby could defeat him. He is a long time political veteran in the region and has run campaigns in both parties.
I was noticing Steve Raby has a moustache and goatee while Mo Brooks is clean-shaven. FReeper Auh2orepublican has a theory that clean-shaven candidates have an advantage over the facially hirsute. Personally, I have no bias in that direction, since I also have a moustache and goatee... ;-)
Tea Party candidate (Moser) got only 16% of vote against Shelby.
Do you think the suicide contributed to the loss?
Hi CedarDave! Long time no see you! Miss you over at the Mark Levin thread and your old train pictures!:)=^..^=
Parker Griffith is defeated and rightfully so. Good riddance, the RINOs and DEMONcrats have to go!
Ditto what BG said!
My theory is about candidates with stand-alone mustaches, not with goattees. But, yes, I assume that Raby starts off with a disadvantage (although keep in mind that Alan Grayson of FL sported a goattee when he was elected in 2008).
it’s an aversion to masculinity.
Yeah, but Alan Grayson is Satan.
Are you saying Auh2orepublican isn’t muy macho ? :-P
Conservatives are NOT dead in AL. Recent Rasmussen poll put AL as the top conservative state. We voted 66% against Obama. That IS NOT dead!
not at all. people seem to have a problem with maleness these days.
bookmark for later
Yeah, that one’s considered Safe D. we’ll see what happens.
66% of Alabama voters voted against Obama?
That IS impressive!
Way to go Alabama! And I am looking forward to seeing Dale Peterson elected to Ag. Commissioner come November! :)
Mighty difficult, since Peterson placed last in the primary.
My theory is based on my observation of election results, not on any evidence of why voters shunned candidates with mustaches. Watching election results on TV back in 2002, I noticed that every time a candidate with a mustache was on the screen it was because he had lost, and by the end of the night I was saying “oh, crap”!” every time I saw that the Republican candidate in a competitive race had a mustache.
I’ll give you a couple of examples. In 1996 and 2002, Democrat Tom Strickland ran against Wayne Allard for a U.S. Senate from Colorado; both times, Allard surprised many by winning 52%-47%. Strickland sported a mustache in both races, and has since shaved it off. And in 2002 Geoff Davis ran against Ken Lucas in Kentucky’s 4th District, and lost narrowly; he shaved his mustache in time for the 2004 election and he defeated Democrat Nick Clooney.
And, for the record, while I can’t grow a decent mustache myself (not that it would matter, since I don’t have enough real estate between my nose and the top of my lip to fit more than a very thin mustache anyways), soy ciertamente más macho que Fernando Lamas y Ricardo Montalbán. : )
I don’t believe we’ve had a President with facial hair since Taft. About 1/4 had facial hair of some sort. I think it’s a residue of the Roman Empire. They believed anyone with facial hair had something to hide.
Thank you for the ping.
No president with facial hair since Taft (although a picture of a sickly-looking Wilson with a beard has surfaced), and no major-party candidate with facial hair since Dewey in 1948. Presidents with facial hair were the norm from 1861 (BTW, Lincoln grew his famous beard after he was elected but before he was sworn in) to 1909, with only McKinley and the unelected Andrew Johnson failing to have facial hair, but there were none either before or after such period.
There aren’t runoffs in NM. This was the primary, before this was the state convention.
So Mo Brooks (I hope Parker Griffith is gracious in defeat) and Alan Nunnlee both avoided runoffs.
AzaleaCity5691 thinks the rat could possibly win in AL-05.
I find the idea that a conservative district could be a rat pickup for Pelosi this year to be unfathomable no matter what the local rat strength is of the district. Rat pickups unlike diamonds will be rare this year.
In Arkansas 2 Joyce Elliott, a black female far left rat state Senator faces the State House Speaker in the runoff. Speaker says he’s electable, NAACP say that’s a racist code word. If Joyce Elliott wins you can mark AR-2 down as a certain pickup.
John Sanchez won the LT Governor nod in New Mexico. The first time in state History either party has had 2 Hispanic running mates for Gov and LT.
Martinez they are saying is the first Hispanic woman to become a major party Gubernatorial nominee in any state.
Tom Dewey was a great disappointment.
It has entirely to do with who Steve Raby is and nothing else. Steve Raby is sort of a brand name in that part of the state and he actually has far more name recognition throughout the district as a whole than Mo Brooks does.
Raby has run campaigns for candidates in both parties. Raby therefore knows strategy from both sides of the aisle. Raby wouldn’t be putting his name on the line if he didn’t have a road map for how he’d win and hell, if he wins, then that means Steve Raby becomes that much more impressive.
The problem with Mo Brooks is when you look at the results. 39,000 of the 70,000 Republican primary votes were cast in Madison County. A large number of white Democrats voted in that primary. I assume most of them voted for Mo Brooks.
Outside of Madison it broke down something like 37,000 in the Dem primary to 31,000 in the Rep primary and thats including Republican Limestone and areas within Morgan. If you remove Madison County from the results, Brooks ends up with 13,338 while Griffith has 14,351.
Brooks entire margin of victory in that primary is attributable to Madison County where it was well known that many white Democrats cross over during state primary time to vote in local races and Griffith of course is public enemy number one for those white Democrats, those same white Democrats who know full well that Mo Brooks has never had much play outside of Huntsville.
You can say that the national factors and all that override this but I had said from the beginning we needed Griffith, both as a propaganda point to try and convert rural conservative Democrats to our side and because he had district wide notability and isn’t associated with a single unpopular (with everyone who can’t afford to live there) neighborhood in Huntsville like Mo Brooks is.
“AzaleaCity5691 thinks the rat could possibly win in AL-05.”
IMHO, it’s possible, but not likely.
Basically it breaks down like this.
Brooks wins if he holds Huntsville metro and makes in roads in the Shoals and the mountains.
Raby wins if he holds the Shoals and the mountains and makes inroads in Huntsville metro.
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