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To: Cold Heat

Yes, a hurricane needs low pressure to develop but when it passes through a cold ocean it isn’t going to develop very well. That is why we don’t get hurricanes in the upper pacific area it needs to be in warm water.


22 posted on 07/09/2010 4:55:06 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric cartman voice* 'I love you guys')
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To: Steve Van Doorn
Pacific hurricanes don't concern me. Once in a blue, they hit Hawaii, or turn back to Mexico. It's the Atlantic Hurricanes that hit us, and once in cycle or two you get them to form over Cuba as they do from time to time. The water is very shallow and it gets hot. A T-storm can sometimes form a hurricane if there is nothing to stand in it's way but those storms usually hit Mexico. Usually....Just as the last one did.

There are factors yet to be discussed in the media that I have seen, that involved the sun cycles. a 26 year(approx) cycle divided by two 13 year parts, one stronger than the other for some unknown reason, and in the middle is a polar reversal.

That really bad year in Florida occurred just before this reversal and during one of the most active solar years on record.

The sun then went quiet and has been building back up since, but I don't think it will be as bad as the last cycle. but I think worse than last year for sure.

I lived along the gulf coast for 20 years, and I watched and went through several and I made note of the crappy forecasting. If I was to generalize, active years occur about 12 to 13 years apart, and there is little use in forecasting in between because local conditions have most to do with it. But every 12-13 years we get a hurricane season that usually generates a destructive storm or more and it's a given fact.

I would think locally originated storms would be the most common this year, and it's possible that it could be a better than average year, but I remain skeptical of the weather services forecasts based solely on local patterns that affect California more than anyone else but could steer a storm into Texas more than other years.

And sure, you need some heat to sustain a hurricane, but remember, it does not have to hot, just needs a temperature differential to keep the low cranked up. Which is why hurricanes can go all the way to Canada and beyond.

When I say the sun has a lot to do with the seasons, it is because the sun largely controls our weather patterns. Not that the heat makes the storm worse. Both may well happen but it's not well understood. It's the differentials and water-vapor, plus upper level calm that creates the potential. Once they are going, they need more and more to get bigger and replace the eye wall. But they need it all and not just one or the other or two of three. Then they need something to make it move, and without that something they will move to the WNW as the earth spins and their rotation affects them with friction. The shape is also a factor.

The forecasters have Florida all upset and Florida may not see anything this year. I lived there for years, and I despised the hurricane forecasters. That is why I despise these forecasts as they are nothing but Hollywood hyperbole. Geared to get attention with little factual matter except a guess that one weather pattern will cause hurricanes to hit the US. (and the fact they think we are due because of last year)

24 posted on 07/09/2010 5:45:11 PM PDT by Cold Heat
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