Posted on 09/09/2010 5:24:50 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
The main knock, in fact the only legitimate knock, on Christine O'Donnell as the GOP nominee in Delaware is that she cannot win in the November election. Delaware is a blue state, and Christine O'Donnell is very conservative. Delaware's senior Senator was, after all, Joe Biden. Surely no conservative could hope to capture the "Biden seat". Well, could they?
If history provides any clues (and it usually does) Christine O'Donnell stands an excellent chance of winning this seat in November. There are two reasons why her electoral prospects are sunnier than one might suppose, given Delaware's recent voting patterns.
First,and foremost: 2010 is by all measures shaping up to be a "wave election", perhaps the mother of all "wave" elections. In a wave election, not a few candidates win where they should not win and still others lose where one would not suppose they would. In modern times, we have seen two gigantic wave elections, in 1980(Reagan) and 1994 (the GOP takeover of Congress after a 40 year hiatus), a slightly smaller one in 1974 (Watergate)and miniwaves in 1986 and 2006 (the last cycle of two term Presidents).
To illustrate the power of back to back wave elections both to give and to take away, consider 1974 and 1980. In 1974, the Democrats added only three Senate Seats to their total of 59. But may of their endangered liberal incumbents in Red States survived, including George McGovern, who had lost South Dakota in 1972 to Richard Nixon by 10 points but won reelection comfortably by 6. Frank Church, the liberal from deeply red Idaho, won reelection by 14 points in the 1974 wave. And Birch Bayh of Indiana won reelection by 5 in deep red Indiana. In 1980, however, spurred on by Reagan's onslaught, the wave flowed in the opposite direction. McGovern lost by 19 to Jim Abdnor. The liberal Church (aided by incumbency) was edged by only 1 point by Steve Symms, and Birch Bayh lost by 6 to Dan Quayle. And GOP Senators who had barely won( by less than a point) in 1974 (such as Dole in red Kansas and Laxalt in red Nevada)won by 26 and 21 respectively. Liberals Gaylord Nelson (in blue Wisconsin) and Warren Magnuson (in blue Washington) who both won in 1974 with over 60% were defeated by first time GOP candidates.
Similarly, in the miniwave election of 1986, many of the first time winners in 1980, even in red states, were swept out by far more liberal candidates, including Paula Hawkins in Florida (to Bob Graham); Mack Mattingly in Georgia (to liberal Wyche Fowler); Jim Abdnor in South Dakota (to liberal Tom Daschle). Patrick Leahy who hung on by the skin of his teeth in 1980 49.8% to 48.5%, crushed a former governor by 30 points in 1986.
There are even more recent examples. In 1994, conservative, Federalist Society founder Spencer Abraham won in deep blue Michigan as did social conservative icon Rich Santorum in blue Pennsylvania.
The second dynamic which favors an O'Donnell upset is the absence of an incumbent. Incumbent Democrats in Blue states and Incumbent Republicans in Red States can frequently stand against the headwind of a wave election. As pointed out above, Dole and Laxalt survived in 1974; Leahy in 1980. All three romped the next time they faced a favorable wave. If Christine O'Donnell is the nominee, she will be further assisted by the lack of a really stellar opponent. The Democrats had effectively conceded the race to Mike Castle and Beau Biden had stood down, waiting for a much surer bet in 2014, when Castle would retire. Chris Coons was a sacrificial lamb, and an O'Donnell nomination will catch the Democrats flatfooted with an untested candidate who has never run statewide and who is a hard leftist with Marxist sympathies that may not go over so well in corporation friendly Delaware:
Coons took 'bearded Marxist' turn
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36726.html
My point is that, with the approach of a wave election of historic proportions and the absence of a marquee challenger, much less an incumbent, the stars are beginning to align for Christine O'Donnell. O'Donnell is well positioned to win the Senate seat that is, as I write this, slipping from the grasp of Mike Castle.
Only Tea Party movement supporting her is the Tea Party Express who anyone is on their emails knows how many times they ask for campaign contributions including the night before an election to keep ads on the air. Delaware Tea Party groups are not getting involved which should speak volumes. Without outside influence, O’Donnell would be nothing.
As for the Palin endorsement, it won’t matter in Delaware and could hurt in some areas. If this group of out of staters costs us that Senate seat, I don’t want to ever hear from any of them again including Hannity and Levin.
We have a great chance to pick up the seat and with it comes someone who will vote for the Republican Majority Leader and would help get us Committee Chairman. If people don’t think that is important, then what are they doing in politics. She is a horrible candidate and every last poll says she cannot win in November in Delaware. I don’t think with her baggage she would win in most states.
http://hotair.com/archives/2010/09/09/oh-my-palin-endorses-odonnell-over-castle/comment-page-3/#comments
Ping!
She was on with Mark Levin tonight. I think he was doing Hannity’s show. I liked her.
At least she is peddling her wares over at Allahpundit’s RINO village. Does anyone listen to her?
This bag can go to hell. Rather lose the senate minus the full out lib Castle and with the Dim. This argument is wearing thin since 2012 has some far better GOP senate races to make up the difference from this year.
In the meantime Obama can replace Justice Kennedy and Justice Scalia with another Sotomayor and Kagan.
We're in a fight for liberty and our country and the establishment is worried about committee chairmanships. They can KMA.
Barracuda!
“In the meantime Obama can replace Justice Kennedy and Justice Scalia with another Sotomayor and Kagan.”
And Castle would prevent his exactly how?
You should read that thread. Absolutely pathetic. Full of Castle apologists.
The only Republicans to the left of Castle are the “Dingbat Twins.” Castle had an ACU rating of 28 in 2008. Specter had a 40 in 2008. Is it smart to support a Republican who makes Arlen Specter look like Ronald Reagan (by comparison)?
“You should read that thread. Absolutely pathetic. Full of Castle apologists.”
Not surprising from Allahpundit and co. I don’t post over there. I did once long ago and have forgotten screen name and password. if Anyone wants to post this vanity with the historical proof that COD can win, they will have my blessing.
Because a Republican Majority could use procedural rules to tie up nominees in Committee, without a majority, this cannot happen.
I have noticed that a Palin endorsement generates something akin to a banshee squall from RINOs and leftists. They remind me of a herd of stuck pigs.
And if he Jeffords the GOP? Not a good argument, IMHO. You always win when you elect conservatives.
“Because a Republican Majority could use procedural rules to tie up nominees in Committee, without a majority, this cannot happen.”
If Castle is the deciding vote, he will flip to the Dems just as Jeffords and Specter did and Murkowski is in the process of doing. Castle need never face the voters again. He doesn’t give a hoot about conservatives.
What is the world makes you trust him? How many times do conservatives need to be stabbed in the back?
And anyway, the point of this post is that Christine O’Donnell can win in November. Mike Castle will be his yacht somewhere. He is about to become extinct.
O’Donnell cannot win in Delaware. Period. The Democrats all over the web are literally jumping for joy because of this announcement. They know that their only chance to hold the Delaware Senate seat is for O’Donnell to win the primary.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=123871.0
As for Castle being the “deciding vote”, he wouldn’t have the chance. He’s not getting the judiciary committee.
Castle has said he wants to CHANGE some of those procedural rules. Guess which party he wants to screw?
You just keep on believing that. You are a defeatist!
Thanks. A good argument. And I would add that Castle is not just an ordinary RINO, but well to the left of many Democrats. I wouldn’t put it past him to vote for another Sotomayor, for Cap and Trade, or for anything else Obama puts forward.
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