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Venezuela on the Brink
Commentary ^ | James K. Glassman

Posted on 09/13/2010 7:49:03 PM PDT by neverdem

Venezuela goes to the polls on Sept. 26 in a parliamentary election that opponents of President Hugo Chavez see as “a chance to turn the tide,” as Reuters news service puts it. Chavez may be taking on more authoritarian powers, but he also has to defend what the latest data show is the worst economy in the world. And you thought the Democrats had problems!

The Economist magazine provides statistics weekly on 57 nations, from the United States to Estonia. Its most recent report forecasts that gross domestic product in Venezuela will decline by 5.5 percent in 2010. Next worst is Greece, with a 3.9 percent decline. Greece, of course, came close to defaulting on its debt earlier this year, and analysts at Morgan Stanley worry that Venezuela is moving in the same direction.

“Our new baseline of at least three years of economic contraction suggests the risks to Venezuela’s ability to honor its international financial commitments may be on the rise,” wrote Daniel Volberg and Giuliana Pardelli in a June report, at the same time predicting that GDP will fall by 6.2 percent in 2010. “While most of Latin America, in line with the globe, has been in recovery mode since last year, Venezuela has seen an intensifying downturn in activity,” they added.

So that’s GDP, the single best measure of economic health. When it comes to inflation, no one is close to Venezuela. Consumer prices are already up 31 percent for 2010 and are expected to rise more by year-end. Only two of the remaining 56 nations monitored by the Economist are suffering double-digit inflation: India and Egypt, both with 11 percent price increases.

Venezuela’s stagflation is all the more remarkable because, as the No. 8 oil-producing nation in the world, the country should be benefiting handsomely from...

(Excerpt) Read more at commentarymagazine.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: chavez; hugochavez; venezuela

1 posted on 09/13/2010 7:49:05 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Venezuela’s situation in their up-coming elections is very similar to ours, and things are expected to be tense around election time.


2 posted on 09/13/2010 7:53:50 PM PDT by DTogo (High time to bring back the Sons of Liberty !!)
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To: neverdem

Obamay tries but he can’t be as good as Hugo at destroying a country.


3 posted on 09/13/2010 7:54:55 PM PDT by Dallas59 (President Robert Gibbs 2009-2013)
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To: DTogo

Chavez just uses the elections to find out who his enemies are.


4 posted on 09/13/2010 7:55:02 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: neverdem

Venezuela is worse than Zimbabwe?


5 posted on 09/13/2010 7:55:44 PM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: neverdem

Its going to be the dirtiest, most-rigged election in history (except when Saddam won with 100% of the vote)


6 posted on 09/13/2010 7:56:23 PM PDT by GeronL (http://libertyfic.proboards.com <--- My Fiction/ Science Fiction Board)
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To: neverdem

Sean Penn needs to go down there and make election commercials for his hero on how to take over more private industry to achieve social justice... Equal poverty for all...


7 posted on 09/13/2010 7:56:52 PM PDT by DB
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To: neverdem
Chavez may be taking on more authoritarian powers, but he also has to defend what the latest data show is the worst economy in the world.

I call bullcr@p on this. Venezuela is nowhere near as bad as Zimbabwe, Haiti, or North Korea.

8 posted on 09/13/2010 7:57:01 PM PDT by gogogodzilla (Live free or die!)
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To: gogogodzilla

Not yet...


9 posted on 09/13/2010 7:58:36 PM PDT by Dallas59 (President Robert Gibbs 2009-2013)
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To: qam1

Nah...

Venezuela is still in the early death spiral stages compared to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is dead.


10 posted on 09/13/2010 7:59:03 PM PDT by DB
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To: neverdem

Any Praetorian Guard want to become the liberator of Venezuela?


11 posted on 09/13/2010 7:59:03 PM PDT by struggle ((The struggle continues))
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To: DTogo

I did not know they still had elections. Are they stupid enough to vote for Hugo?


12 posted on 09/13/2010 7:59:13 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (counter revolutionary)
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To: DTogo
Somewhere there is a Venezuelan patriot.......
13 posted on 09/13/2010 7:59:13 PM PDT by JPG (Care for another lobster, Mookie? How's your steak? Ready for another triple Stoli/rocks?)
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To: gogogodzilla

Did ya read the article???


14 posted on 09/13/2010 7:59:13 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: DB

Yes Equal Opportunity destitution. The Obama Plan for us.


15 posted on 09/13/2010 8:00:22 PM PDT by screaminsunshine (counter revolutionary)
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To: neverdem

Hugo should call Barry to get some advice on fixing the economy.


16 posted on 09/13/2010 8:00:22 PM PDT by smokingfrog (freerepublic.com - Thanks JimRob! The flags are back! - 8/17/2010.)
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To: GeronL
Barky smiles in his sleep when he dreams of 105%.
17 posted on 09/13/2010 8:00:49 PM PDT by JPG (Care for another lobster, Mookie? How's your steak? Ready for another triple Stoli/rocks?)
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To: screaminsunshine

The Hugolans do, just like the Obamulans here.


18 posted on 09/13/2010 8:03:00 PM PDT by DTogo (High time to bring back the Sons of Liberty !!)
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To: struggle

Pick me sir.

Have you seen the women down their?


19 posted on 09/13/2010 8:04:34 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: DTogo

We are heading towards Zimbabwe. Meanwhile idiots watching the 24x7 propaganda on the 5 out of 6 TV networks with Saudi shareholders or Saudi multi billion deals.

Wonder where all that endless “moderate Islam” lite comes from that is mentioned ad nauseum? TV viewers support the islamo marxist O regime.


20 posted on 09/13/2010 8:05:05 PM PDT by Frantzie (Imam Ob*m* & Democrats support the VICTORY MOSQUE & TV supports Imam)
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To: qam1

They only report on 57 nations - probably all countries that in recent times have had functional economies. The point seems to be that both Greece and Venezuela are close to dropping off that list. Greece has the rest of Europe to come to the rescue, Venezuela doesn’t.


21 posted on 09/13/2010 8:05:25 PM PDT by eclecticEel (Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness: 7/4/1776 - 3/21/2010)
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To: gogogodzilla

I guess they meant worst performing economy. -5.5%GDP


22 posted on 09/13/2010 8:05:54 PM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: JPG; struggle

Operación Valkiria


23 posted on 09/13/2010 8:06:09 PM PDT by DTogo (High time to bring back the Sons of Liberty !!)
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To: Frantzie

We’re heading toward 1775 with a little 1861 on top.


24 posted on 09/13/2010 8:08:23 PM PDT by DTogo (High time to bring back the Sons of Liberty !!)
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To: neverdem
Venezuela’s stagflation is all the more remarkable because, as the No. 8 oil-producing nation in the world, the country should be benefiting handsomely from...

Hardly mystifying.

"If Communism took over the Sahara desert, what would happen? For ten years, nothing; then there would be a shortage of sand." --old Soviet joke.

25 posted on 09/13/2010 8:09:46 PM PDT by denydenydeny ("Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil." Thomas Mann)
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To: DTogo
Venezuela’s situation in their up-coming elections is very similar to ours, and things are expected to be tense around election time.

You mean millions of poor imbeciles have suddenly been enfranchised and promised by a marxist that wealth from the productive class will be redistributed to them in exchange for their votes?.

Yes, its very similar.

Unfortunately for Venezuela, and unlike America, the poor vastly outnumber the productive class.

The ratio of imbeciles, however, is the same.

26 posted on 09/13/2010 8:10:04 PM PDT by Rome2000 (OBAMA IS A COMMUNIST CRYPTO-MUSLIM)
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To: screaminsunshine

Yes, I cannot understand why 36% of the people still support him. Are there that many morons there, or are those numbers cooked?


27 posted on 09/13/2010 8:13:19 PM PDT by Pining_4_TX
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To: denydenydeny

Socialism: Tying a rope with a noose to a strong tree branch, putting it around your neck, and beginning to dig a deep hole under your feet. After having watched ten thousand other fools kill themselves doing exactly the same thing.

It’ll work this time!


28 posted on 09/13/2010 8:15:10 PM PDT by EternalVigilance (Islamists demanding "tolerance"? That's like Hannibal Lecter demanding to decide the menu.)
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To: neverdem
So that’s GDP, the single best measure of economic health. When it comes to inflation, no one is close to Venezuela. Consumer prices are already up 31 percent for 2010 and are expected to rise more by year-end.

But according to our Federal Reserve, inflation is caused by economic growth. How can there be double digit inflation when the GDP is declining?

(The fact is there is no evidence for what the Federal Reserve claims.)

29 posted on 09/13/2010 8:16:05 PM PDT by Moonman62 (Half of all Americans are above average.)
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To: Moonman62

That is the point. Once banks start lending and economic growth takes off, watch out for hyper inflation!


30 posted on 09/13/2010 8:24:18 PM PDT by whitedog57
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To: neverdem

I was in Venezuela for a couple of weeks earlier this summer. It was sad to see. A number of friends told me that it was a good place to work when they were there in the early 2000’s. Unfortunately that was not my experience. Definitely a nation in decline.

Even in our downward trend here in the U.S. we have a long way to go to get to their condition, but I fear that the fall of our current system will be sudden and uncontrollable.

Uncontrollable by the government that is. As Americans we will fight for our freedom and our rights and rebuild what we have lost.

God bless the USA!


31 posted on 09/13/2010 8:27:01 PM PDT by born2bfree
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To: neverdem
The Economist magazine provides statistics weekly on 57 nations,

Fer' a second there thought that was Obama talking about the number of states he's been to.
32 posted on 09/13/2010 8:29:48 PM PDT by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: whitedog57
That is the point. Once banks start lending and economic growth takes off, watch out for hyper inflation!

Is there any historic evidence for that? The 1920's hyperinflation in Germany was associated with a large loss in production capacity, among other things.

33 posted on 09/13/2010 8:31:31 PM PDT by Moonman62 (Half of all Americans are above average.)
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To: neverdem

Why can’t we hear about this in cuba? It’s time for tariffs on nations that do business with the likes of cuba and venezuela.


34 posted on 09/13/2010 8:36:54 PM PDT by mamelukesabre (Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum (If you want peace prepare for war))
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To: CPT Clay
Have you seen the women down their?

Every morning I when I wake up.

And I still think "HOLY CRAP!" every time she walks by after 16 years. :D

35 posted on 09/13/2010 8:38:07 PM PDT by Caipirabob ( Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: GeronL

I was in an African hotel watching CNN when Saddam won the election with 100% of the vote. It sticks in my memory because the talking head announced it with such a straight face. My co-worker and I turned to each other and LOL.


36 posted on 09/13/2010 8:39:15 PM PDT by Thidwick
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To: Thidwick

I think even some of our media wanted to believe it


37 posted on 09/13/2010 8:50:57 PM PDT by GeronL (http://libertyfic.proboards.com <--- My Fiction/ Science Fiction Board)
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To: neverdem

If I get a chance to bet, I’m betting that Chavez, that pig, will “win.”


38 posted on 09/13/2010 9:01:41 PM PDT by Rembrandt (.. AND the donkey you rode in on.)
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To: struggle

Any Praetorian Guard want to become the liberator of Venezuela?

Is Hugo fidling yet?


39 posted on 09/13/2010 9:50:21 PM PDT by munin (Enki did it, George Bush did it)
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To: neverdem
"Chavez has responded to these ills by shutting down media outlets, restricting economic freedom, blaming his critics, and throwing political opponents and businessmen in jail."

Chavez controls the military and the urban poor. Would he acknowledge an unfavorable vote? Likely not.

40 posted on 09/13/2010 10:40:10 PM PDT by JimSEA
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To: Moonman62

Yes. Beranke has flooded the market with currency which should have produced hyperinflation already.

Why hasn’t it?

Because our banks are sitting on the cash. And regulators are hesitant to let them lend.

Once they start lending AND FLOOD THE MARKET WITH MONEY, that is where hyperinflation keeps in.


41 posted on 09/14/2010 4:07:46 AM PDT by whitedog57
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To: Caipirabob

wow — your wife looks gorgeous. and congratulations on learning Portuguese!


42 posted on 09/14/2010 5:11:31 AM PDT by Cronos (This Church is holy, the one Church, the true Church, the Catholic Church-St.Augustine)
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To: gogogodzilla
“I call bullcr@p on this. Venezuela is nowhere near as bad as Zimbabwe, Haiti, or North Korea.”

Those countries were not rated because they have no measurable economies. The way Venezuela is headed it may soon join their ranks.

43 posted on 09/14/2010 8:38:21 AM PDT by monday
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To: whitedog57
Yes. Beranke has flooded the market with currency which should have produced hyperinflation already.

Why hasn’t it?

Loan defaults have a very deflationary effect. Japan has been in a low interest rate, loose money, deflationary environment for twenty years now.

Show me a historical period like ours or Japan's that led to hyperinflation.

I have more concern that the Fed will raise rates too quickly once growth resumes.

44 posted on 09/14/2010 8:39:33 AM PDT by Moonman62 (Half of all Americans are above average.)
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Thanks neverdem.
Venezuela goes to the polls on Sept. 26... Chavez may be taking on more authoritarian powers, but he also has to defend what the latest data show is the worst economy in the world... gross domestic product in Venezuela will decline by 5.5 percent in 2010. Next worst is Greece, with a 3.9 percent decline... [Venezuela's] GDP will fall by 6.2 percent in 2010... When it comes to inflation, no one is close to Venezuela. Consumer prices are already up 31 percent for 2010 and are expected to rise more by year-end. Only two [other nations] suffering double-digit inflation: India and Egypt, both with 11 percent price increases... as the No. 8 oil-producing nation in the world, the country should be benefiting handsomely...

45 posted on 09/17/2010 6:47:18 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Democratic Underground... matters are worse, as their latest fund drive has come up short...)
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To: neverdem

Read on Twitter a few moments ago that between 60 & 70 MP’s were elected to the opposition. Sounds like good numbers against Chavez.

I suppose the reason they have delayed official results in the election is that they are trying to concot the lie Chavez will tell.


46 posted on 09/26/2010 8:30:40 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one.)
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