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Tropical Storm Richard
NOAA/NHC ^ | 21 October 2010 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 10/21/2010 8:24:28 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Tropical Storm Richard has formed in the Caribbean Sea. The five day forecast indicates the system will move into the Gulf of Mexico.

NHC Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

Satellite Images & Loops (Atl Floater 1)

Buoy Data:
Western Caribbean
Florida & Eastern GOM
Western GOM


TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: richard; tropical
17th tropical storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season.
1 posted on 10/21/2010 8:24:31 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; ...
Tropical Storm Richard.
Heads up Gulf of Mexico.
220 miles SE of Grand Cayman, moving SSE at 6 mph.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

2 posted on 10/21/2010 8:27:30 AM PDT by NautiNurse (ObamaCare uses Bernie Madoff theory of economics)
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To: NautiNurse

This thread is going to be fun..........


3 posted on 10/21/2010 8:27:53 AM PDT by Red Badger (WOULD SOMEBODY PLEASE GIVE MEGHAN MCCAIN A BOX OF KRISPY KREMES SO SHE'LL SHUT THE HELL UP?!)
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To: NautiNurse
In order to strengthen and cross the Gulf, a storm has to have near-perfect timing with the cold fronts ejecting from the continental air-mass.

This storm's timing is right on the money, allowing it to squeeze through.

It could easily become a Biggie!

4 posted on 10/21/2010 8:29:01 AM PDT by capt. norm (Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups.)
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To: NautiNurse

Hurricane Tricky Dick......will he go into the Gulf and lie about it.......or not???? ;) LOL!


5 posted on 10/21/2010 8:29:42 AM PDT by BossLady (Reid - "They don't like me.....They really, really don't like me!!!!")
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To: NautiNurse

Crud, the dang thing has a chance at hitting my area. I could do WITHOUT a hurricane for the rest of my life. I have been in one, and it was enough.


6 posted on 10/21/2010 8:37:15 AM PDT by King_Corey (www.kingcorey.com)
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To: Red Badger
I still rememember Weather Channel announcer Vivian Brown struggling to keep a straight face as she covered Typhoon Longwang a few years ago. That was right up there with the Bigus Dickus scene in The Holy Grail.
7 posted on 10/21/2010 8:39:45 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: NautiNurse

Boy its been quiet in Florida,I don’t likethe looks of this one...sigh. The spaghetti maps are all over and I dontknow what the frontslook like in eastern US next week..so its wait and see...


8 posted on 10/21/2010 8:43:34 AM PDT by lexington minuteman 1775
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To: King_Corey

Hurricanes generally don’t hit Texas this time of year, the prevailing winds tend to push them off to the Northeast. Western Florida and the FL Panhandle need to be watching this one.


9 posted on 10/21/2010 8:44:09 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: capt. norm

What about Gulf temp...my husband went diving last weekend in the Gulf and the water temp was a lot cooler than it has been. He needed a wetsuit so I think temps are in the mid to low 70’s (offshore.) But I wondered how the water temp would affect a storm at this time of year?


10 posted on 10/21/2010 8:47:44 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: NautiNurse

TANKS,NN,,,

I sure don’t like those tracks...


11 posted on 10/21/2010 8:52:51 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: dawn53
What about Gulf temp...my husband went diving last weekend in the Gulf and the water temp was a lot cooler than it has been. He needed a wetsuit so I think temps are in the mid to low 70’s (offshore.) But I wondered how the water temp would affect a storm at this time of year?

According to NDBC Data Buoy 42003 located in the south Gulf at 26.044 N 85.612 W (26°2'38" N 85°36'42" W), the sea water temp at the buoy is 80.2 degrees and could easily support a hurricane.

Here is the url of that buoy:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

12 posted on 10/21/2010 9:03:21 AM PDT by capt. norm (Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups.)
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To: dawn53

13 posted on 10/21/2010 9:05:13 AM PDT by NautiNurse (ObamaCare uses Bernie Madoff theory of economics)
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To: NautiNurse
My homeowners insurance ends the end of this month - we've been with a great company that decided to move out of Florida some years ago and we were lucky enough not to be cut for a number of years. But our luck ran out this year... My roof ( new ) was inspected a few days ago - and it looks like everything will be fine - but they don't write when a hurricane is coming... I pray this storm misses us - or if not, that it comes before the end of the month... God, I hate hurricane season.

Thanks for the ping.

14 posted on 10/21/2010 9:13:13 AM PDT by GOPJ ('Power abdicates only under the stress of counter-power." Martin Buber / Teanami's coming...)
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To: dirtboy

It is just an outside chance. I am still clearing up down trees from IKE. And we live 90+ miles from the coast. We intentionally don’t live on the South Side of Houston.


15 posted on 10/21/2010 9:16:05 AM PDT by King_Corey (www.kingcorey.com)
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To: NautiNurse

Noooooooooo, Rich heard i was headin to Houston next week. Will NOT do a Rita-type evac.(again) .


16 posted on 10/21/2010 9:16:23 AM PDT by urtax$@work (The best kind of memorial is a Burning Memorial.........)
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To: NautiNurse

Great. Just in time to screw-up my weekend.

The busiest hurricane season I’ve never seen.


17 posted on 10/21/2010 9:20:16 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Democrats are for free speech. Just not for you.)
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To: GOPJ
My homeowners insurance ends the end of this month

Ouch. Hopefully, Richard will be finished with the GOM by midnight October 31.

18 posted on 10/21/2010 9:22:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse (ObamaCare uses Bernie Madoff theory of economics)
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To: VeniVidiVici

Never mind. Just saw it’s dilly-dallying around for the next few days.


19 posted on 10/21/2010 9:22:43 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Democrats are for free speech. Just not for you.)
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To: capt. norm

80F is the minimal threshold to sustain a hurricane. The Gulf buoy near NOLA yesterday was at 77F. If a storm does manage to squeeze through and strike the central Gulf coast or Big Bend, it will not be a serious danger. This season is just about over for the CONUS.


20 posted on 10/21/2010 9:23:37 AM PDT by Romulus (The Traditional Latin Mass is the real Youth Mass)
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To: VeniVidiVici

No problem this weekend, unless you were headed to Central America. Halloween weekend may be interesting.


21 posted on 10/21/2010 9:30:14 AM PDT by NautiNurse (ObamaCare uses Bernie Madoff theory of economics)
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To: dirtboy
Hurricanes generally don’t hit Texas this time of year, the prevailing winds tend to push them off to the Northeast. Western Florida and the FL Panhandle need to be watching this one.

That's what all the models seem to say also, thank heavens for us. Not so good for the western FL peninsula though.


22 posted on 10/21/2010 10:00:46 AM PDT by leilani
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To: capt. norm

THIS JUST IN:

BARNEY FRANK ANNOUNCES VACATION IN COZUMEL!
HEARD THERE WAS A BIG DICK BLOWING IN MEXICO!.........


23 posted on 10/21/2010 10:08:56 AM PDT by Red Badger (WOULD SOMEBODY PLEASE GIVE MEGHAN MCCAIN A BOX OF KRISPY KREMES SO SHE'LL SHUT THE HELL UP?!)
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To: Romulus
80F is the minimal threshold to sustain a hurricane. The Gulf buoy near NOLA yesterday was at 77F. If a storm does manage to squeeze through and strike the central Gulf coast or Big Bend, it will not be a serious danger. This season is just about over for the CONUS.

And yet in 1985 Hurricane Kate hit us in Panama City and the Gulf water temp offshore was 74 degrees. A hurricane that has already formed and strengthened can still cross some cooler waters an maintain itself on inertia before substantially diminishing (still enough left to cause a mess).

We had a similar thing happen with Hurricane Opal that crossed sea water temps in the mid 70's and hit us with both barrels in 1995.

Once it gets its "mainspring" wound up, water temps in the 70's are still warm enough to let it finish the trip if it doesn't have to go too far.

The storm needs 26 degrees C/79 degrees F to form, but it can coast a surprising distance before it loses that head of steam...happened to me twice in exactly ten years. Kate landed a few days before Thanksgiving in '85.

The first hurricane I worked was Camille in '69 then Agnes '72, Eloise '75, Elena '85, Kate'85, Erin and Opal both in '95.

These were just the ones that hit at or near enough to Panama City to do considerable damage.

24 posted on 10/21/2010 10:27:57 AM PDT by capt. norm (Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups.)
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To: NautiNurse

Think we have another front coming so this one is probably yours. Not that we couldn’t stand a little rain, but that doesn’t happen here.


25 posted on 10/21/2010 10:33:39 AM PDT by SouthTexas (WE are the Wave - Vote Nov 2)
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To: NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Richard

His friends call him "Dick". In fact, so do his enemies.

26 posted on 10/21/2010 10:33:59 AM PDT by OrangeHoof (Washington, we Texans want a divorce!)
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To: leilani

That GFDL model is no good.


27 posted on 10/21/2010 11:01:59 AM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: capt. norm

Opal’s US landfall was on October 4. That’s three weeks earlier than Little Richard, and makes a world of difference this time of year in SSTs. I certainly understand your desire not to repeat the experience. We’ve all been there more than enough times.


28 posted on 10/21/2010 11:28:53 AM PDT by Romulus (The Traditional Latin Mass is the real Youth Mass)
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To: NautiNurse

I’m so tired of getting pinched from pieces of storms....(thanks for the thread NN)


29 posted on 10/21/2010 12:20:05 PM PDT by rodguy911 ( Sarah 2012!!! Home of the free because of the brave.)
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To: leilani
The model runs keep shifting southward, two of them put Richard into the Bay of Campeche. Here's another October 'R' storm that crossed the Yucatan and went into the Bay of Campeche:

Hurricane Roxanne


30 posted on 10/21/2010 12:43:45 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: capt. norm

Interesting, the NHC now gives that Cape Verde disturbance a medium chance of developing. It’s pretty late in the season for Cape Verde development.


31 posted on 10/21/2010 12:45:13 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Romulus
Opal’s US landfall was on October 4. That’s three weeks earlier than Little Richard, and makes a world of difference this time of year in SSTs. I certainly understand your desire not to repeat the experience. We’ve all been there more than enough times.

I retired after 40-some odd years in the hurricane forecasting business, so I am aware of the SST trends.

You forgot the fact that Hurricane Kate hit the Panhandle on November 21st of 1985 roughly five weeks later than "Richard" and the water temp was 74 degrees which is cooler than it is now...and it didn't make a "world of difference" although I would have preferred it to do so.

We had a lot of people who simply could not believe a hurricane could hit that late... a few days before Thanksgiving.

32 posted on 10/21/2010 12:59:13 PM PDT by capt. norm (Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups.)
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To: numberonepal
That GFDL model is no good.

Darnit, and that's the one that had the best chance of looping around and knocking El Jefe Fidel on his big fat culo, isn't it? :-)

(Glad the Cuban people aren't likely to get hit since that model is faulty, though; they seem to suffer more than any on the planet from the ravages of huracánes.. They need a break - a decade long break at least!)

33 posted on 10/21/2010 1:54:22 PM PDT by leilani
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To: dirtboy
Hurricanes generally don’t hit Texas this time of year

A little rain would be nice though. It doesn't have to be hurricane rain, just your average kind of rain.

34 posted on 10/21/2010 2:02:45 PM PDT by girlscout (Smith & Wesson: The Ultimate in Feminine Protection)
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To: capt. norm

Far be it from me to challlenge anyone with your expertise, but Wikipedia does note that SSTs that November were exceptionally warm, with a persistent ridge over the SE states. It can and does happen, but I continue to believe we’ll have no major trouble this year.

No offense intended to your professionalism, but like most other life-long residents of New Orleans I’ve become accustomed to weighing the odds for myself.


35 posted on 10/21/2010 2:09:06 PM PDT by Romulus (The Traditional Latin Mass is the real Youth Mass)
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To: Romulus

I don’t think it will amount to anything either, but I don’t want anyone to have any false hopes, thinking it couldn’t happen.


36 posted on 10/21/2010 2:22:09 PM PDT by capt. norm (Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large groups.)
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To: Red Badger; Nick Danger


37 posted on 10/21/2010 4:47:17 PM PDT by NautiNurse (ObamaCare uses Bernie Madoff theory of economics)
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To: rodguy911

With each of the successive forecast model runs, one or another of them insists on driving Richard into Tampa Bay. Eeesh.


38 posted on 10/22/2010 9:29:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse (ObamaCare uses Bernie Madoff theory of economics)
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To: NautiNurse

Bump for Belize


39 posted on 10/24/2010 12:23:04 PM PDT by ThirdMate
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