Skip to comments.Gulp: New poll shows Murkowski up by double digits
Posted on 10/29/2010 7:16:17 PM PDT by CedarDave
Ed and I have been trying to game out how well handle blogging the late late late night returns on Tuesday from Alaska. Id been dreading having to post at 4 a.m., but now Im looking forward to it for the simple reason that waiting on numbers that late will at least mean the race is close.
Eeyoreblogger pessimism status check: Spiking.
The poll, conducted by Dittman Research & Communications, shows Murkowski leading attorney Joe Miller (R), 37 percent to 27 percent, with the Democrat, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, in third place with 23 percent. Thirteen percent chose other candidates or were undecided.
Replicating the write-in process in a phone survey can be difficult, but the technique used by pollster Dave Dittman is unique to most public polls of the race. Respondents are first asked an open-ended question about their vote preference, and their choice of candidate is recorded. If the respondent is unable to make a choice, he or she is read the names of the candidates on the ballot, with the option of a write-in candidate. In order to choose Murkowski, the respondent must choose the write-in option and provide her name.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
To pay back her Dim friends, I predict she will caucus with the Dems if she wins.
They are not designed to reflect opinion - they are designed to shape public opinion.
She lost the damn primary! Go away, Murky.
We're all doomed!!!
Gallup is liberal, so who knows the accuracy, but time to support Joe Miller all the more, and if you’re from Alaska, please volunteer.
Somehow I knew this would be Allahpundit...
Trust Rasmussen and no one.
Sure hope you’re right! I can’t believe it myself and keith in Iowa is right: They are not designed to reflect opinion - they are designed to shape public opinion.
Pull the thread if you wish.
Dittman had Murkowski winning the primary by a landslide also. He’s a liberal pollster here in AK.
Well what did you expect from a phone poll with half the names culled from a Murkowski donor list?
I thought Ras was having his poll out today. If so, haven't seen it.
Kan U Say “PUSH POLLS”?
Democratic legislator and Republican political analyst and consultant on the air together Friday On Friday, Representative Max Gruenberg (D-Anchorage) and Dave Dittman of Dittman Research & Communications Corporation will recount the experiences they had working together in Senator Ted Stevens office in the seventies. Rep. Gruenberg was Senator Stevens legislative assistant from 1971-1973 and Dittman was Senator Stevens communications aide from 1971-1973
This technique looks highly skewed to Murkowski.
To me it is like a step on the spectrum to super-not-necessarily-likely voters. In other words, it goes the opposite way from polling likely voters, by begging the question of whether or not the answerer will even vote.
(Unless you see they first ask whether that person will vote.)
Miller looks much stronger than this. to me (w/o knowing what’s in the media up there, I confess).
Don't know much about him, but thought Hot Air was a conservative site with Michelle Malkin and such posting there. Of course Allahpundit could always be a Karl Rove clone.
This poll is total bull. I assume this poster is Du. Miller will beat her like a slave.
We might be witnessing some kind of bizaree political miracle.
Allahpundit - the crass, God-hating, womanizing pundit.
I don’t think 1 out of 3 voters in Alaska (or anywhere else) can spell “Murkowski” even if it printed on a piece of paper and right in front of them.
I’m glad the thread is rapidly making its way down the page. Think I’ll drag myself away from here and have a Friday p.m. beer...
I think a more appropriate poll would be how many Alaskans can spell MurCOWski”
Rasmussen said tonight, it’s nearly impossible to poll in Alaska.
If Princess wins this thing she may not necessarily caucus w/ Dems but she will effectively be a liberal Democrat. The Senate will be much closer regardless what happens, and she’ll have the leverage to tip it their way. Besides can you imagine her lifting a finger to advance small-government conservative legislation, ever? I don’t understand AK voters at all if they return her to office *now*, after her embarrassing behavior—why wouldn’t her loyalists just vote for McAdams instead? He is even campaigning on the “gravy train” theme!
I doubt she lives in my neighborhood ~ too many Asians, Africans, Arabs, Afghans and "others" for the taste of someone like her.
There is absolutely no way to gauge a write in campaign. NO WAY
This entire Murkowski operation is a diversion. She can’t win and should be ignored. Miller has this in the bag.
Focus on closer races like Delaware and California.
Lisa, pull my finger.
Lord. Now we are posting allahpundit garbage and he is peddling something called a Ditman research ??
Hotair and Allahpundit are both so sad.
Gallup is pretty reliable but this is not Gallup. It’s something called Dittman Research.
On the other hand, anything that helps counteract some of the early celebrations and complacency is welcome.
How utterly dreadful to find ourselves one more time subject to the daily hormonally driven whims of a drama queen prepared to sell out the nation for a few cents in a milk price support deal benefiting a handful of dairy farms and a cheesemaker.
I was thinking about that myself. I imagine they concentrated on the areas where her support is strong like Anchorage and Fairbanks. On the other side, I expect the native tribes will support her which is why the Division of Elections said an exact spelling is not required.
LOL If a write-in candidate polls 37% and the pubbie in Alaska polls 27% I’ll eat an entire caribou at one sitting. I’ll be very surprised if she breaks 20%. This is just more Murkowski nonsense.
They are not designed to reflect opinion - they are designed to shape public opinion.”
Does that mean we’re really NOT going to see a Republican wave this year?
What I have learned from this thread is that Dittman was way off in his primary call for Murky. It makes me feel a little better.
See 11 . Dittman is a Stevens /Murk troll and pushes Push Polls.
The only way Jim Miller loses is through voter fraud. Until people started paying a hefty fine and jail time for voter fraud it will continue.
Yes, they use to work for daddy. LOL
Thanks for that wake-up slap. Gotta have that beer now...
I was just going to make the Same point.
I trust no poll from AK.
Joe had 55,000 votes in the primary. I don’t believe any of the people who voted for him in the primary would leave him. He has to have some independent support.
They had 317,000 turnout in 2008. So it won’t be that high. In 2002 turnout was 230,000. So turnout should be around 250,000.
That means they are saying he is only getting around 70,000. That means they think of all the people that didn’t vote in the Republican primary. He gets 15,000 out of 140,000. That’s a little more than 10%, doubtful.
Who did the poll.
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