Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Gulp: New poll shows Murkowski up by double digits
Hot Air ^ | 6:51 pm on October 29, 2010 | Allahpundit

Posted on 10/29/2010 7:16:17 PM PDT by CedarDave

Ed and I have been trying to game out how we’ll handle blogging the late late late night returns on Tuesday from Alaska. I’d been dreading having to post at 4 a.m., but now I’m looking forward to it for the simple reason that waiting on numbers that late will at least mean the race is close.

Eeyoreblogger pessimism status check: Spiking.

The poll, conducted by Dittman Research & Communications, shows Murkowski leading attorney Joe Miller (R), 37 percent to 27 percent, with the Democrat, Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, in third place with 23 percent. Thirteen percent chose other candidates or were undecided.

Replicating the write-in process in a phone survey can be difficult, but the technique used by pollster Dave Dittman is unique to most public polls of the race. Respondents are first asked an open-ended question about their vote preference, and their choice of candidate is recorded. If the respondent is unable to make a choice, he or she is read the names of the candidates on the ballot, with the option of a write-in candidate. In order to choose Murkowski, the respondent must choose the write-in option and provide her name.


(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alaska
KEYWORDS: alaska; joemiller; miller; murkowski; princesslisa
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-98 next last
Just crap! Don't know what to believe. I can't believe I dislike her so much and don't even live there!!!

To pay back her Dim friends, I predict she will caucus with the Dems if she wins.

1 posted on 10/29/2010 7:16:19 PM PDT by CedarDave
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Horse hockey.


2 posted on 10/29/2010 7:17:21 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Rebellion is brewing!! Just vote them OUT!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

POLLS LIE.

They are not designed to reflect opinion - they are designed to shape public opinion.


3 posted on 10/29/2010 7:17:50 PM PDT by Keith in Iowa (FR Class of 1998 | TV News is an oxymoron. | MSNBC = Moonbats Spouting Nothing But Crap.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jim Robinson

(the poll)


4 posted on 10/29/2010 7:18:15 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Rebellion is brewing!! Just vote them OUT!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

She lost the damn primary! Go away, Murky.


5 posted on 10/29/2010 7:18:42 PM PDT by SoCalConstitutionalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave
It's on the Internet, so it must be true!

We're all doomed!!!

(sarcasm)

6 posted on 10/29/2010 7:18:58 PM PDT by airborne (Why is it we won't allow the Bible in school, but we will in prison? Think about it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All; CedarDave

Gallup is liberal, so who knows the accuracy, but time to support Joe Miller all the more, and if you’re from Alaska, please volunteer.


7 posted on 10/29/2010 7:20:03 PM PDT by Sun (Pray that God sends us good leaders. Please say a prayer now.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Somehow I knew this would be Allahpundit...


8 posted on 10/29/2010 7:20:40 PM PDT by Cu Roi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Trust Rasmussen and no one.


9 posted on 10/29/2010 7:20:52 PM PDT by libh8er
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jim Robinson; Keith in Iowa

Sure hope you’re right! I can’t believe it myself and keith in Iowa is right: They are not designed to reflect opinion - they are designed to shape public opinion.

Pull the thread if you wish.


10 posted on 10/29/2010 7:20:51 PM PDT by CedarDave (Juan Williams to NPR: "You and your far left-wing mob fired me. Wasn't that enough for you? ")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Dittman had Murkowski winning the primary by a landslide also. He’s a liberal pollster here in AK.


11 posted on 10/29/2010 7:21:13 PM PDT by JohnKinAK
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jim Robinson

Well what did you expect from a phone poll with half the names culled from a Murkowski donor list?


12 posted on 10/29/2010 7:21:21 PM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 646 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: libh8er
Trust Rasmussen and no one.

I thought Ras was having his poll out today. If so, haven't seen it.

13 posted on 10/29/2010 7:22:31 PM PDT by CedarDave (Juan Williams to NPR: "You and your far left-wing mob fired me. Wasn't that enough for you? ")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Kan U Say “PUSH POLLS”?


14 posted on 10/29/2010 7:23:50 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannolis. Take it to the Mattress.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave
http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2010/10/ak-senate-ignore-hot-airs-latest-on-dittman-research-communications-poll.html

Democratic legislator and Republican political analyst and consultant on the air together Friday On Friday, Representative Max Gruenberg (D-Anchorage) and Dave Dittman of Dittman Research & Communications Corporation will recount the experiences they had working together in Senator Ted Stevens office in the seventies. Rep. Gruenberg was Senator Stevens’ legislative assistant from 1971-1973 and Dittman was Senator Stevens’ communications aide from 1971-1973

15 posted on 10/29/2010 7:24:02 PM PDT by luv2ndamend (They call themselves greens because they're too yellow to admit they're reds.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

This technique looks highly skewed to Murkowski.

To me it is like a step on the spectrum to super-not-necessarily-likely voters. In other words, it goes the opposite way from polling likely voters, by begging the question of whether or not the answerer will even vote.

(Unless you see they first ask whether that person will vote.)

Miller looks much stronger than this. to me (w/o knowing what’s in the media up there, I confess).


16 posted on 10/29/2010 7:24:17 PM PDT by unspun (It's the Sovereignty, Stu... um... art. | WE ARE GULAG BOUND)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cu Roi
Somehow I knew this would be Allahpundit...

Don't know much about him, but thought Hot Air was a conservative site with Michelle Malkin and such posting there. Of course Allahpundit could always be a Karl Rove clone.

17 posted on 10/29/2010 7:24:29 PM PDT by CedarDave (Juan Williams to NPR: "You and your far left-wing mob fired me. Wasn't that enough for you? ")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Jim Robinson

This poll is total bull. I assume this poster is Du. Miller will beat her like a slave.


18 posted on 10/29/2010 7:26:11 PM PDT by Benchim
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave
Who is she pulling support from?

We might be witnessing some kind of bizaree political miracle.

19 posted on 10/29/2010 7:26:26 PM PDT by Walts Ice Pick
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cu Roi; CedarDave

Allahpundit - the crass, God-hating, womanizing pundit.


20 posted on 10/29/2010 7:26:46 PM PDT by anniegetyourgun
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave
Whatever the poll says , Rass today said , in his years of polling , write ins always under perform .
21 posted on 10/29/2010 7:27:08 PM PDT by fantom (,)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

I don’t think 1 out of 3 voters in Alaska (or anywhere else) can spell “Murkowski” even if it printed on a piece of paper and right in front of them.


22 posted on 10/29/2010 7:27:40 PM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jim Robinson

I’m glad the thread is rapidly making its way down the page. Think I’ll drag myself away from here and have a Friday p.m. beer...


23 posted on 10/29/2010 7:28:16 PM PDT by CedarDave (Juan Williams to NPR: "You and your far left-wing mob fired me. Wasn't that enough for you? ")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

I think a more appropriate poll would be how many Alaskans can spell MurCOWski”


24 posted on 10/29/2010 7:28:24 PM PDT by catfish1957 (Hey algore...You'll have to pry the steering wheel of my 317 HP V8 truck from my cold dead hands)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Bull crap.

Rasmussen said tonight, it’s nearly impossible to poll in Alaska.


25 posted on 10/29/2010 7:28:37 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah and want on her Ping List, let me know!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

If Princess wins this thing she may not necessarily caucus w/ Dems but she will effectively be a liberal Democrat. The Senate will be much closer regardless what happens, and she’ll have the leverage to tip it their way. Besides can you imagine her lifting a finger to advance small-government conservative legislation, ever? I don’t understand AK voters at all if they return her to office *now*, after her embarrassing behavior—why wouldn’t her loyalists just vote for McAdams instead? He is even campaigning on the “gravy train” theme!


26 posted on 10/29/2010 7:29:06 PM PDT by ash-housewares
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave
Murkowski uses Alaska as a place to get votes. Otherwise she lives somewhere in the WarshDC metropolitan area.

I doubt she lives in my neighborhood ~ too many Asians, Africans, Arabs, Afghans and "others" for the taste of someone like her.

27 posted on 10/29/2010 7:29:15 PM PDT by muawiyah ("GIT OUT THE WAY" The Republicans are coming)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

There is absolutely no way to gauge a write in campaign. NO WAY


28 posted on 10/29/2010 7:30:22 PM PDT by Freddd (CNN is down to Three Hundred Thousand viewers. But they worked for it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sooth2222

This entire Murkowski operation is a diversion. She can’t win and should be ignored. Miller has this in the bag.

Focus on closer races like Delaware and California.


29 posted on 10/29/2010 7:30:26 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Lisa, pull my finger.


30 posted on 10/29/2010 7:30:50 PM PDT by JPG (Sarah Palin says: "Buck-up or get out of the truck.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: anniegetyourgun
Allahpundit - the crass, God-hating, womanizing pundit.

oh ...

31 posted on 10/29/2010 7:30:52 PM PDT by CedarDave (Juan Williams to NPR: "You and your far left-wing mob fired me. Wasn't that enough for you? ")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Lord. Now we are posting allahpundit garbage and he is peddling something called a Ditman research ??

Hotair and Allahpundit are both so sad.


32 posted on 10/29/2010 7:31:08 PM PDT by ncalburt (Get Even on Election Day)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sun

Gallup is pretty reliable but this is not Gallup. It’s something called Dittman Research.


33 posted on 10/29/2010 7:32:07 PM PDT by Tribune7 (The Democrat Party is not a political organization but a religious cult.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: ncalburt

see #15


34 posted on 10/29/2010 7:32:41 PM PDT by luv2ndamend (They call themselves greens because they're too yellow to admit they're reds.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave
They have some good stuff at Hot Air. Malkin's hit or miss in my opinion, although when she's good she's excellent. But Allahpundit always strikes me as a little sensationalistic.

On the other hand, anything that helps counteract some of the early celebrations and complacency is welcome.

35 posted on 10/29/2010 7:32:50 PM PDT by Cu Roi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: ash-housewares
With a size extra small strap-on dildo Murkowski could effectively imitate former Senator Jeffords couldn't she ~ in word and dead, in life and in politics.

How utterly dreadful to find ourselves one more time subject to the daily hormonally driven whims of a drama queen prepared to sell out the nation for a few cents in a milk price support deal benefiting a handful of dairy farms and a cheesemaker.

36 posted on 10/29/2010 7:33:15 PM PDT by muawiyah ("GIT OUT THE WAY" The Republicans are coming)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave; Jim Robinson

ALASKA'S FINAL LIST OF WRITE=IN CANDIDATES


37 posted on 10/29/2010 7:34:15 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah and want on her Ping List, let me know!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: onyx
Rasmussen said tonight, it’s nearly impossible to poll in Alaska.

I was thinking about that myself. I imagine they concentrated on the areas where her support is strong like Anchorage and Fairbanks. On the other side, I expect the native tribes will support her which is why the Division of Elections said an exact spelling is not required.

38 posted on 10/29/2010 7:34:27 PM PDT by CedarDave (Juan Williams to NPR: "You and your far left-wing mob fired me. Wasn't that enough for you? ")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

LOL If a write-in candidate polls 37% and the pubbie in Alaska polls 27% I’ll eat an entire caribou at one sitting. I’ll be very surprised if she breaks 20%. This is just more Murkowski nonsense.


39 posted on 10/29/2010 7:34:38 PM PDT by bereanway (I'd rather have 40 Marco Rubios than 60 Arlen Specters)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Keith in Iowa

“POLLS LIE.

They are not designed to reflect opinion - they are designed to shape public opinion.”

Does that mean we’re really NOT going to see a Republican wave this year?


40 posted on 10/29/2010 7:35:30 PM PDT by bigdaddy45
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave
Hey, if people are talking about it they may as well talk about it here.

What I have learned from this thread is that Dittman was way off in his primary call for Murky. It makes me feel a little better.

41 posted on 10/29/2010 7:36:41 PM PDT by Tribune7 (The Democrat Party is not a political organization but a religious cult.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: FReepers
BuckeyeTexan just wrote,

FReepers, if you have a twitter account, please re-tweet the following:

BuckeyeTexan: Its MoneyBomb Friday at #FreeRepublic. Donate securely at


http://tinyurl.com/25jfc97
42 posted on 10/29/2010 7:37:22 PM PDT by RedMDer (Throw Them Out! Forward With Confidence!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: luv2ndamend

See 11 . Dittman is a Stevens /Murk troll and pushes Push Polls.


43 posted on 10/29/2010 7:37:39 PM PDT by ncalburt (Get Even on Election Day)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

The only way Jim Miller loses is through voter fraud. Until people started paying a hefty fine and jail time for voter fraud it will continue.


44 posted on 10/29/2010 7:38:56 PM PDT by doc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ncalburt

Yes, they use to work for daddy. LOL


45 posted on 10/29/2010 7:39:59 PM PDT by luv2ndamend (They call themselves greens because they're too yellow to admit they're reds.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: luv2ndamend; ncalburt

Thanks for that wake-up slap. Gotta have that beer now...


46 posted on 10/29/2010 7:40:29 PM PDT by CedarDave (Juan Williams to NPR: "You and your far left-wing mob fired me. Wasn't that enough for you? ")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

POLL INTERNALS


47 posted on 10/29/2010 7:41:22 PM PDT by deport (TEXAS -- Early Voting ends Friday, Oct. 29......... Get out and vote and take someone with you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: onyx

I was just going to make the Same point.

I trust no poll from AK.


48 posted on 10/29/2010 7:41:49 PM PDT by Clyde5445 (Gov. Sarah Palin: :"You have to sacrifice to win. That's my philosophy in 6 words.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave; Jim Robinson; Keith in Iowa; All
".... keith in Iowa is right: They are not designed to reflect opinion - they are designed to shape public opinion."


49 posted on 10/29/2010 7:42:38 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: CedarDave

Joe had 55,000 votes in the primary. I don’t believe any of the people who voted for him in the primary would leave him. He has to have some independent support.

They had 317,000 turnout in 2008. So it won’t be that high. In 2002 turnout was 230,000. So turnout should be around 250,000.

That means they are saying he is only getting around 70,000. That means they think of all the people that didn’t vote in the Republican primary. He gets 15,000 out of 140,000. That’s a little more than 10%, doubtful.

Who did the poll.


50 posted on 10/29/2010 7:46:49 PM PDT by Steelers6
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-98 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson